Stop voting for fucking Tories

[tabascoboy]

When a U-turn is still a car crash

[Slick]

It's just awful.

I was having a conversation a moment ago about just how bad this latest government is proving. We know that none of them are particularly bright (and that's not just a throwaway remark, they are not) and their inability to think on their feet is extraordinary at that level of government, but also the teams they have in place are also unbelievably bad. I can't remember a group of senior politicians who are seemingly so badly briefed and so far away from reality. How have none of the questions they are being asked been predicted, how have the public reactions not been factored in, it's just so shite.

[dpedin]

And as if by magic, even as the dead cat of tax cuts bounces off the table of time (RIP Humph), Kwarteng announces cuts of up to £18bn for public services.

Although in this inflationary time of fucked currency, that's probably the cost of a couple of trainee nurses and a teaching assistant.

They are toast, its just a matter of how long before they collapse. The UK public have decided already, the polls are excruciatingly bad for the Tories, and the majority of their MPs, who didnt want Truss, are already trying to work out what their survival/exit strategy is. The press is shifting as well as none want to be associated with this shitfest of a Gov. Financial markets don't trust them and international community, apart from Putin, are furious and scared of contagion spreading from UK into their already fragile markets. This is all before they start announcing their public sector spending cuts, environmental deregulation - just wait till the RSPCB and Wild life Trust get going - and selling off of the NHS. Then they will have to make a disastrous retreat from their Brexit and NI Protocol hard lines as it becomes clear any level of growth is impossible without better, easier access to EU and US markets and they will piss off the DUP again in the process. Expect troubles in NI. Then mortgage payments will increase, loans will be more expensive and as folk stop spending then the economy will contract leading to job losses and higher unemployment. Finally we will have another covid wave and the NHS will revert to emergency and cancer services only creating even longer queues, bigger waiting lists and continuing high levels of excess deaths. They have no answers and no backers - Its really hard to think of anyone credible who still supports them? If they make it to Christmas then they will be lucky.

[dpedin]

It's just awful.

I was having a conversation a moment ago about just how bad this latest government is proving. We know that none of them are particularly bright (and that's not just a throwaway remark, they are not) and their inability to think on their feet is extraordinary at that level of government, but also the teams they have in place are also unbelievably bad. I can't remember a group of senior politicians who are seemingly so badly briefed and so far away from reality. How have none of the questions they are being asked been predicted, how have the public reactions not been factored in, it's just so shite.

It's because they sacked almost all the permanent secretaries and senior civil servants and appointed inexperienced ones who they know will tow the line. New Treasury PS has no experience of working in Treasury nor with BoE - mad, almost suicidal?

[Hal Jordan]

This Government is what you get when everyone with half a brain and an ability to play the game of compromise in politics has disappeared, and all that is left is the zealots who install their think tank wonks, plus the sort of MPs normally confined to the back benches where they just get up to the sort of cretinous mischief the likes of Chope and Fabricant delight in.

And 35% of the country will still vote for and support them because blue rosette.

[SaintK]

[I like neeps]

Leaked offgem letter suggesting there's a significant risk in load shedding this winter in the UK. Prices are going up again, European governments getting twitchy that countries aren't cutting consumption enough. Oh and long range forecasts (not very reliable but anyhow) suggests it'll be colder than usual this winter. Uh oh.

[Biffer]

And as if by magic, even as the dead cat of tax cuts bounces off the table of time (RIP Humph), Kwarteng announces cuts of up to £18bn for public services.

Although in this inflationary time of fucked currency, that's probably the cost of a couple of trainee nurses and a teaching assistant.

They are toast, its just a matter of how long before they collapse. The UK public have decided already, the polls are excruciatingly bad for the Tories, and the majority of their MPs, who didnt want Truss, are already trying to work out what their survival/exit strategy is. The press is shifting as well as none want to be associated with this shitfest of a Gov. Financial markets don't trust them and international community, apart from Putin, are furious and scared of contagion spreading from UK into their already fragile markets. This is all before they start announcing their public sector spending cuts, environmental deregulation - just wait till the RSPCB and Wild life Trust get going - and selling off of the NHS. Then they will have to make a disastrous retreat from their Brexit and NI Protocol hard lines as it becomes clear any level of growth is impossible without better, easier access to EU and US markets and they will piss off the DUP again in the process. Expect troubles in NI. Then mortgage payments will increase, loans will be more expensive and as folk stop spending then the economy will contract leading to job losses and higher unemployment. Finally we will have another covid wave and the NHS will revert to emergency and cancer services only creating even longer queues, bigger waiting lists and continuing high levels of excess deaths. They have no answers and no backers - Its really hard to think of anyone credible who still supports them? If they make it to Christmas then they will be lucky.

Don’t forget the general strike, coming your way this winter.

[JM2K6]

surprise!

[dpedin]

surprise!

Exactly - we know what the plan is, we know what they are doing, we know how they are going to do it, they wrote books about it telling us all this and we all now have armchair views of these bunch of cnuts destroying our country. It is going to get very very nasty very quickly.

[JM2K6]

letthemfight.gif

[sturginho]

letthemfight.gif

Whoa, Mad Nads saying something sensible? Isn't that one of the signs of the apocalypse?

[redderneck]

If Lord of the Flies had been written by Enid Blyton...

[JM2K6]

letthemfight.gif

Whoa, Mad Nads saying something sensible? Isn't that one of the signs of the apocalypse?

Not that sensible. Boris broke lots of manifesto promises, and there was no mandate for most of that shit either (particularly C4). She's just angling for Johnson's return.

[_Os_]

And 35% of the country will still vote for and support them because blue rosette.

That 30%-35% is their core vote and has a staggeringly high tolerance level for poor governance. As discussed with neeps pages back, as long as they hold that they still have a chance in any election.

The Kamikwazi budget revealed a bit more about how firm it is. All the polling since has the Tories in the 20%-29% range. It seems their core support has 20% in the vote for the pig with a blue rosette category, and a top up of 15% who largely vote in their own immediate economic self interest. Polls show that top up 15% looks entirely mercenary and is breaking for Labour likely because they can beat the Tories (the Lib Dems gained nothing), only a small amount went from the Tories to Reform UK.

There's some other recent polling developments. Leave voters aren't consolidated behind the Tories, Labour and the Tories have about the same amount of Leave voters (Yougov had them at 39% each, and Reform UK taking 8%), but the Remain vote is more consolidated (Labout 63%/Lib Dems 12%). Supporting Brexit doesn't look like a big vote winner, but those parties that were more favourable to Remain are still trusted by Remainers more (Greens/SNP/Tories share the rest of the remain vote roughly equally, but the SNP and Greens are parties with a much smaller footprint than the Tories). The Tories are also nowhere with those under the age of 50, they're below 15% in those age groups. Labour are also polling ahead of the Tories in areas they normally don't, immigration and the economy.

The Tories could still regain their core vote, which will mean replacing the Truss government. If they maintain this course, the polling is now showing they'll be on 20%-ish with all that weighted towards those over 50 years old in England.

[Torquemada 1420]

Can't disagree with any of this. It is interesting that the Gov claim we are one of the highest taxed countries but have one of the lowest state pensions - where does all the money go?

I don't know enough about the ins and outs of pensions to add anything to what you and Torq have posted. But this is a different question.

The big thing that's happened in the past few weeks, is the Tory energy bailout costing £60bn (some estimate the eventual cost could be much higher, even £200bn). That's UK public debt going to private energy companies that are currently making windfall profits because of the Russia/Ukraine war, Thatcher used a windfall tax but the Tories deem that too left wing now, nationalisation was also rejected. All that's being paid for is a limited period of lower energy bills for consumers. It's a huge public debt to fund consumption with nothing else to show for it.

These assets were originally privatised under Thatcherism to supposedly drive growth and efficiency etc. In economics it's called "crowding out" when state speeding prevents private investment, because the state's expanded fiscal policy means interest rates rise and suck up all the private investment spending, why go to the effort of investing when you can buy bonds at a high interest rate and get a similar return with the same or less risk. This has been known since at least the 18th century (the two Scots, Hume and Smith). This is all the libertarian (IEA, Thatcherism etc) stuff is built on, most of the rest is ideological bullshit and billionaires refusing to pay taxes.

This has happened before. After the 2008 GFC, and Covid PPE. The 2008 crash wasn't really "bailing out the banks" they're not free floating entities disconnected from anything else in the economy, it was bailing home owners and pensions. The Covid PPE spend just looks like mass looting. It's all really just an asset swap, private junk becomes public debt.

The next move that happens, is everyone looks at the huge government debt mountain and says "there's a public debt crisis!", when actually there isn't. In the absence of growth government spending is cut to try and reduce this debt, this is what austerity is. During the austerity phase everyone fights like mad bastards to cut who knows what blaming anyone that isn't them for destroying the economy. What this really means is liquidating assets to try and pay off debts, spending on teachers or roads isn't a cost it's an asset. Ultimately assets generate the growth, and the assets are the public goods (good luck having a "high skilled high wage economy" if the education system is unequal and underfunded). Liquidating assets to pay off debt, usually means you have a reduced asset pool and so reduced scope to outgrow the debt ... and in the end more debt (the debt to asset ratio rises). All through the Tory austerity years the UK's debt kept growing and there was little growth.

Then it gets weird.

First the Tories privatise everything they can to prevent crowding out, then they pump up government debt and give it to those same private entities. Now there's potentially privatisation and crowding out. Truss and Kamikwazi don't know what they're talking about because they're okay with massive interest rate increases and also talk about private sector generated growth (when there's shitloads of UK bonds that could be paying 6%?). Then it gets even more weird, they're now cutting taxes in an attempt to increase growth, which there's no evidence works, besides the UK already having low corporate taxation and all sorts of loopholes. To fund this tax cutting there'll apparently be further austerity (which as the track record shows means more debt).

... You can tell this isn't really understood, because there's little outrage over how the energy bailout was funded, Tories normally get away with saying it's an excellent solution (which it is, for their funders).

Agree with pretty much all of this and just a few observations
1) 100% on the energy issue. I can't understand why commentators are not exposing it for what it is: rob Peter to pay Paul. And, as you highlight, it's a massive gamble on prices falling or this becomes a millstone around their necks forever at the expense of the public purse propping up super profits of the energy cos.

2) Whatever Thatcher's Govt claimed it was, the privatisation of assets paid for and owned by the public was really about 2 things
- one trick pony of clearing the national debt
- placing into the hands of their cronies products/services that had monopoly or cartelised oligopoly positions and so would be able to profiteer ad infinitum.

3) There is the other aspect to bond pricing: confidence. Kwarteng has seen the markets have concerns over the UK Govt's ability to pay back its own debt. Suicide.

4) Your point on spending being an asset rather than a debt is only true if the target of the spending provides an effective pay off down the line. Crudely, investing in teaching meeejuh studies is not the same as teaching electronic engineering. Around here, I've seen a new section of road relaid 4x in the last 12 months alone. New Deals can work but it's not a given and can easily go all Gosplan.

{EDIT} I had not checked but I see S&P has in effect downgraded the UK's credit rating. It still says AA rated but now comes with "outlook negative".

[sturginho]

letthemfight.gif

Whoa, Mad Nads saying something sensible? Isn't that one of the signs of the apocalypse?

Not that sensible. Boris broke lots of manifesto promises, and there was no mandate for most of that shit either (particularly C4). She's just angling for Johnson's return.

True, but apparently it was "priced in" that Johnson is a liar

[Slick]

Gove and Raab to the rescue?

[Biffer]

Gove and Raab to the rescue?

Baker also now highlighting his 'moderate' credentials. They'll all be at it soon, reslising that things like trans rights lose them no votes, just excite their base that will vote for them anyway

[Torquemada 1420]

The other elephant in an already pachyderm packed room is property prices.

This might just be total over reaction
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4 ... t-projects?

but there is a an increasing risk that the combo of
- rapidly falling disposable income
- huge mortgage rate rises with both home owners and BTL speculators coming off fixed rates straight into the storm
- banks pulling deals, thereby reducing the no. of potential buyers
- a sh*tload of new developments to come to the market over the next 2 years which are
> already behind schedule
> servicing funding debt that is spiralling upwards
> and have already massively over run costs due both to material price increases and COVID delays
will trigger some sort of price collapse.

[dpedin]

The other elephant in an already pachyderm packed room is property prices.

This might just be total over reaction
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4 ... t-projects?

but there is a an increasing risk that the combo of
- rapidly falling disposable income
- huge mortgage rate rises with both home owners and BTL speculators coming off fixed rates straight into the storm
- banks pulling deals, thereby reducing the no. of potential buyers
- a sh*tload of new developments to come to the market over the next 2 years which are
> already behind schedule
> servicing funding debt that is spiralling upwards
> and have already massively over run costs due both to material price increases and COVID delays
will trigger some sort of price collapse.

Entirely credible, and unfortunately likely, scenario and why Truss and Kamikaze will be gone soon!

[Biffer]

The other elephant in an already pachyderm packed room is property prices.

This might just be total over reaction
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4 ... t-projects?

but there is a an increasing risk that the combo of
- rapidly falling disposable income
- huge mortgage rate rises with both home owners and BTL speculators coming off fixed rates straight into the storm
- banks pulling deals, thereby reducing the no. of potential buyers
- a sh*tload of new developments to come to the market over the next 2 years which are
> already behind schedule
> servicing funding debt that is spiralling upwards
> and have already massively over run costs due both to material price increases and COVID delays
will trigger some sort of price collapse.

I'm good with that. Three reasons, one personal, one to do with societal equity and one macroeconomics

1. Personally I'm trying to move up the ladder so it'll make places more affordable

2. Young people might actually be able to buy somewhere

3. All this investment money both at an investment fund scale and a personal investment scale, that is tied up in non productive asset growth. Moving a slab of that investment into productivity development via infrastructure and company investment is key to growing the UK economy.

[Insane_Homer]

[SaintK]

Shit speech from a shit Chancellor appears to have forgotten who has been in power the past 12 years

[dpedin]

Wow - even the FT is realising the current Gov are a bunch of idealogues and zealots! How much longer can they go on for?

[Slick]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

[Tichtheid]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

He’s playing us all, he’s as much a charlatan as Johnson

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -to-con-us

[Biffer]

Wow - even the FT is realising the current Gov are a bunch of idealogues and zealots! How much longer can they go on for?

FT has fairly consistently been condemning their policies for a good while.

[Biffer]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

Dear God. Seriously?

[petej]

Wow - even the FT is realising the current Gov are a bunch of idealogues and zealots! How much longer can they go on for?

FT has fairly consistently been condemning their policies for a good while.

Pretty much since brexit.

[sockwithaticket]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

He's a weapons grade cunt who actively works against the interests of the nation and its population. The only intriguing thing about him is his possible death day.

[Slick]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

He’s playing us all, he’s as much a charlatan as Johnson

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -to-con-us

Enjoyed that article.

All probably correct, but he did once hold the door open for me with the utmost politeness, so not all bad

[Slick]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

Dear God. Seriously?

Not completely seriously but I do quite enjoy his interviews, he’s pretty unique. KGM was trying everything to rile him on C4 tonight and he didn’t miss a beat

[JM2K6]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

Dear God. Seriously?

Not completely seriously but I do quite enjoy his interviews, he’s pretty unique. KGM was trying everything to rile him on C4 tonight and he didn’t miss a beat

So essentially you like the fact that he doesn't give a toss and it's all a game to him?

He's a genuine, bona fide, class-A cunt. An absolute scumbag, dressed up as a Victorian 'gentleman'.

[Biffer]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

Dear God. Seriously?

Not completely seriously but I do quite enjoy his interviews, he’s pretty unique. KGM was trying everything to rile him on C4 tonight and he didn’t miss a beat

Isn't that part of the problem though? Grifters like him have reduced politics to entertainment, regardless of the effect he has on millions of people.

[Crash669]

I quite like JRM. Don’t agree with a word he says but I find him quite an intriguing character

He’s playing us all, he’s as much a charlatan as Johnson

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -to-con-us

Enjoyed that article.

All probably correct, but he did once hold the door open for me with the utmost politeness, so not all bad

You're not the first person I've heard say that they find him really endearing in person. But it is just an act, the same as BoJo's clown persona, a front to hide the monster underneath.

[Torquemada 1420]

Excellent article in the FT
https://www.ft.com/content/bd511177-f2a ... 7856e09c4e?
which sadly is behind the paywall (and oddly, was pulled for a while yesterday).

Truss learns the hard way that Britain isn’t America

[Torquemada 1420]

The other elephant in an already pachyderm packed room is property prices.

This might just be total over reaction
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4 ... t-projects?

but there is a an increasing risk that the combo of
- rapidly falling disposable income
- huge mortgage rate rises with both home owners and BTL speculators coming off fixed rates straight into the storm
- banks pulling deals, thereby reducing the no. of potential buyers
- a sh*tload of new developments to come to the market over the next 2 years which are
> already behind schedule
> servicing funding debt that is spiralling upwards
> and have already massively over run costs due both to material price increases and COVID delays
will trigger some sort of price collapse.

I'm good with that. Three reasons, one personal, one to do with societal equity and one macroeconomics

1. Personally I'm trying to move up the ladder so it'll make places more affordable

2. Young people might actually be able to buy somewhere

3. All this investment money both at an investment fund scale and a personal investment scale, that is tied up in non productive asset growth. Moving a slab of that investment into productivity development via infrastructure and company investment is key to growing the UK economy.

Entirely in agreement that it needs whatever it takes to break Britain's obsession with houses being investments rather than homes

and if it torches a lot of home "owners" and BTL speculators who overextended themselves, then that's just tough.

[shaggy]

The other elephant in an already pachyderm packed room is property prices.

This might just be total over reaction
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4 ... t-projects?

but there is a an increasing risk that the combo of
- rapidly falling disposable income
- huge mortgage rate rises with both home owners and BTL speculators coming off fixed rates straight into the storm
- banks pulling deals, thereby reducing the no. of potential buyers
- a sh*tload of new developments to come to the market over the next 2 years which are
> already behind schedule
> servicing funding debt that is spiralling upwards
> and have already massively over run costs due both to material price increases and COVID delays
will trigger some sort of price collapse.

I'm good with that. Three reasons, one personal, one to do with societal equity and one macroeconomics

1. Personally I'm trying to move up the ladder so it'll make places more affordable

2. Young people might actually be able to buy somewhere

3. All this investment money both at an investment fund scale and a personal investment scale, that is tied up in non productive asset growth. Moving a slab of that investment into productivity development via infrastructure and company investment is key to growing the UK economy.

Entirely in agreement that it needs whatever it takes to break Britain's obsession with houses being investments rather than homes

and if it torches a lot of home "owners" and BTL speculators who overextended themselves, then that's just tough.

I’m sure the young families that have scrimped and saved and made many sacrifices to eventually own their home but have a significant mortgage would support your desire to burn them. After all, negative equity, ballooning repayments or losing your home is only a minor factor for those on average wages.

Don’t get me wrong, I have no sympathy for those overextended and always wanting the bigger and shinier things, or those with BTL portfolios without any collateral but to punish them you destroy millions of lives further down the system.

[dpedin]

The other elephant in an already pachyderm packed room is property prices.

This might just be total over reaction
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4 ... t-projects?

but there is a an increasing risk that the combo of
- rapidly falling disposable income
- huge mortgage rate rises with both home owners and BTL speculators coming off fixed rates straight into the storm
- banks pulling deals, thereby reducing the no. of potential buyers
- a sh*tload of new developments to come to the market over the next 2 years which are
> already behind schedule
> servicing funding debt that is spiralling upwards
> and have already massively over run costs due both to material price increases and COVID delays
will trigger some sort of price collapse.

I'm good with that. Three reasons, one personal, one to do with societal equity and one macroeconomics

1. Personally I'm trying to move up the ladder so it'll make places more affordable

2. Young people might actually be able to buy somewhere

3. All this investment money both at an investment fund scale and a personal investment scale, that is tied up in non productive asset growth. Moving a slab of that investment into productivity development via infrastructure and company investment is key to growing the UK economy.

Entirely in agreement that it needs whatever it takes to break Britain's obsession with houses being investments rather than homes

and if it torches a lot of home "owners" and BTL speculators who overextended themselves, then that's just tough.

Whilst we agree the housing market is a shitfest the economic and social fallout of a dramatic and severe collapse of the housing market would impact on us all pretty severely. Also lots of innocent casualties at the bottom end of the market who were merely taken in by all the guff they have been fed over the years. This wouldn't be good for anyone and I say this as someone with no mortgage and would benefit from higher interest rates.

We really do need some folk with serious brains, political nous and a social conscious in charge.