What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Feeling the pinch?

President Vladimir Putin has said the gas taps can be still turned on for Russian supplies to the EU, despite sharp political disagreements. Russia has not delivered gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 line since August, and Nord Stream 2 was halted after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The February invasion led to gas price hikes, and EU customers face record tariffs this winter.

But Germany quickly rejected Mr Putin's offer to send gas via Nord Stream 2. At the same time, a government spokesman in Berlin said Nord Stream 1 - which is not under sanctions - was an option, but gas was not flowing "because Russia did not deliver".

Russia has been accused of using gas supplies as a weapon against the West since the invasion of Ukraine - a charge repeatedly denied by the Kremlin.

"The ball, as they say, is now in the European Union's court - let them just open the tap," Mr Putin said on Wednesday at the annual Russian Energy Week in Moscow.

"We do not limit anyone in anything," he said, adding that Moscow was ready to supply additional volumes of gas in the autumn-winter period.

But despite Mr Putin's words, a resumption of gas supplies to Europe seems unlikely.

[Raggs]

I hope we keep it turned off. Though I'd like electricity prices to be decoupled from gas...

[Wyndham Upalot]

This weekend, albeit not officially recorded, substantial ordinance plus a/d will be delivered. Plain terms, not a leveller but, numerically a significant force multiplier.

[Flockwitt]

This weekend, albeit not officially recorded, substantial ordinance plus a/d will be delivered. Plain terms, not a leveller but, numerically a significant force multiplier.

Ukraine needs to get its act together to be able to sustain a continuous push. They've been unable to organise themselves to chase a retreating enemy.

[Calculon]

This weekend, albeit not officially recorded, substantial ordinance plus a/d will be delivered. Plain terms, not a leveller but, numerically a significant force multiplier.

Has Ukraine received atacms?

[yermum]

The West spent 60 years shitting themself about this?

[Calculon]

Truck bomb theory

[yermum]

Ukraine needs to get its act together to be able to sustain a continuous push. They've been unable to organise themselves to chase a retreating enemy.

From what I have read no army can continuously push. Troops need to pause regroup resupply rotate in and out etc.

Plenty of commentators seem to think that the UAF have conducted a master class in the tempo of their offensives.

Contrasted with the leeroy jenkins of the Russians at the start of the war, and the resulting massacre of some of the best units of the russian forces.

[fishfoodie]

The West spent 60 years shitting themself about this?

The 3rd Reich rolled thru Russia, & on to Moscow, & down to the Black Sea, & took millions of prisoners in weeks in 1941.

But the Russian army regrouped, & once it was led by real Generals, & properly equipped, the Russian soldiers out fought & out thought the best the Wehrmacht could throw at them !

By the time the war ended, the Russians Army was a formidable animal.

[petej]

The West spent 60 years shitting themself about this?

The 3rd Reich rolled thru Russia, & on to Moscow, & down to the Black Sea, & took millions of prisoners in weeks in 1941.

But the Russian army regrouped, & once it was led by real Generals, & properly equipped, the Russian soldiers out fought & out thought the best the Wehrmacht could throw at them !

By the time the war ended, the Russians Army was a formidable animal.

Who helped equip and supply it? Who helped build their factories?

[tabascoboy]

An alternative view, though many replying to the tweet disagree.

[Niegs]

[tabascoboy]

[fishfoodie]

The West spent 60 years shitting themself about this?

The 3rd Reich rolled thru Russia, & on to Moscow, & down to the Black Sea, & took millions of prisoners in weeks in 1941.

But the Russian army regrouped, & once it was led by real Generals, & properly equipped, the Russian soldiers out fought & out thought the best the Wehrmacht could throw at them !

By the time the war ended, the Russians Army was a formidable animal.

Who helped equip and supply it? Who helped build their factories?

The Allies helped, but the Russians were the ones who moved all their manufacturing base hundreds of miles to the east of the Urals, & most of all, it was the Russians that did the dying !

[Uncle fester]

[fishfoodie]

I wonder is train line actually open ?, & if it is, what the weight restrictions are for the wagons.

Immediately after they re-opened the remaining carriage ways, it was reported there were limits on how many cars could be on the bridge at any time; but it looks like trucks are all having to take the ferries,with predictable results.



Won't be long before food & fuel have to be rationed in Crimea, & war materials have to be prioritized over civilian traffic, & then the citizens will decide to take a long, Holiday, outside of Crimea.

[Hellraiser]

Utterly pointless. It's 10km behind the front line in a place that the Ukrainians don't need to go through. The Ukrainians will just flank it. This looks like another performative exercise for domestic propaganda purposes.

[Hellraiser]

This weekend, albeit not officially recorded, substantial ordinance plus a/d will be delivered. Plain terms, not a leveller but, numerically a significant force multiplier.

Ukraine needs to get its act together to be able to sustain a continuous push. They've been unable to organise themselves to chase a retreating enemy.

Theiner went into depth on this on Mriya Report. Thunder runs are only being used when Russian troop numbers are comparatively very low in combat zones. As soon as reinforcements are brought in they halt and bring up artillery. The Ukrainian strategy remains victory through corrosion, basically killing or injuring as many Russians as possible until front lines break. This is particularly the tactic with regards to mobiks. The Ukrainians are quite literally trying to force a 1917 type collapse

[Hellraiser]

The West spent 60 years shitting themself about this?

The 3rd Reich rolled thru Russia, & on to Moscow, & down to the Black Sea, & took millions of prisoners in weeks in 1941.

But the Russian army regrouped, & once it was led by real Generals, & properly equipped, the Russian soldiers out fought & out thought the best the Wehrmacht could throw at them !

By the time the war ended, the Russians Army was a formidable animal.

Without American weaponry and equipment transfers via the Arctic convoys Russia would have been toast by the end of 1942. In the Cold War era the USSR was a beaten docket by 1980, the technology race with the West was lost exponentially from the late 1960s.

[Hellraiser]

I wonder is train line actually open ?, & if it is, what the weight restrictions are for the wagons.

Immediately after they re-opened the remaining carriage ways, it was reported there were limits on how many cars could be on the bridge at any time; but it looks like trucks are all having to take the ferries,with predictable results.



Won't be long before food & fuel have to be rationed in Crimea, & war materials have to be prioritized over civilian traffic, & then the citizens will decide to take a long, Holiday, outside of Crimea.

Saw a video which showed that the rail tracks had melted and warped in places which indicates that the fire reached temps in excess of 1,000°C. Concrete loses structural integrity at temps in excess of 450°C.

[Jock42]

FB_IMG_1665697318468.jpg (46.18 KiB) Viewed 3534 times

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Another analysis of the explosion, need to visit the site for supporting photo evidence but here is his conclusion

As a result of the culmination of all the evidence we have at this time, I feel fairly certain in the conclusion that the explosion on the Crimea Bridge was caused by the detonation of a large volume of explosives loaded onto a truck. All pieces of photographic evidence from the scene of the explosion corroborate the truck bomb theory.

I remain open to any evidence to counter this cause, but at this time it is the only remaining theory without significant evidence debunking it as a probable cause.

The Cause Of The Crimea Bridge Explosion
Of the four theories circulating regarding the cause of the Crimea Bridge explosion, the physical evidence available has now eliminated three.

[Grandpa]

Another analysis of the explosion, need to visit the site for supporting photo evidence but here is his conclusion

As a result of the culmination of all the evidence we have at this time, I feel fairly certain in the conclusion that the explosion on the Crimea Bridge was caused by the detonation of a large volume of explosives loaded onto a truck. All pieces of photographic evidence from the scene of the explosion corroborate the truck bomb theory.

I remain open to any evidence to counter this cause, but at this time it is the only remaining theory without significant evidence debunking it as a probable cause.

The Cause Of The Crimea Bridge Explosion
Of the four theories circulating regarding the cause of the Crimea Bridge explosion, the physical evidence available has now eliminated three.

Wonder how they convinced the driver to drive the truck?

[tabascoboy]

Another analysis of the explosion, need to visit the site for supporting photo evidence but here is his conclusion

As a result of the culmination of all the evidence we have at this time, I feel fairly certain in the conclusion that the explosion on the Crimea Bridge was caused by the detonation of a large volume of explosives loaded onto a truck. All pieces of photographic evidence from the scene of the explosion corroborate the truck bomb theory.

I remain open to any evidence to counter this cause, but at this time it is the only remaining theory without significant evidence debunking it as a probable cause.

The Cause Of The Crimea Bridge Explosion
Of the four theories circulating regarding the cause of the Crimea Bridge explosion, the physical evidence available has now eliminated three.

Wonder how they convinced the driver to drive the truck?

Two possibilities: 1) extreme coercion like threat to family; 2) The driver didn't even know

Not even sure that we can't rule out Russian oppositional elements being involved somehow. By all accounts the truck was loaded somewhere in Krasnodar area.

[fishfoodie]

Another analysis of the explosion, need to visit the site for supporting photo evidence but here is his conclusion

As a result of the culmination of all the evidence we have at this time, I feel fairly certain in the conclusion that the explosion on the Crimea Bridge was caused by the detonation of a large volume of explosives loaded onto a truck. All pieces of photographic evidence from the scene of the explosion corroborate the truck bomb theory.

I remain open to any evidence to counter this cause, but at this time it is the only remaining theory without significant evidence debunking it as a probable cause.

The Cause Of The Crimea Bridge Explosion
Of the four theories circulating regarding the cause of the Crimea Bridge explosion, the physical evidence available has now eliminated three.

Wonder how they convinced the driver to drive the truck?

i) They didn't & he had no idea
ii) 72 Virgins, i.e. a fanatic
iii) Terminal illness, & they promised to look after his family

I'd plunk for i or iii

[tabascoboy]

Unfortunately we will never likely be shown true forensic evidence that hasn't been fabricated or doctored by Russia. Also any statements and "confessions" would also most likely be unreliable and given under duress if not totally made up.

What explosives were used and where did they originate from? Those are the key questions that would help to isolate a possible chain of events. If a truck bomb was involved then the explosives must originate from within Russia, seems to be totally unfeasible for Ukraine to covertly transport them into Russia to avoid the security checks on the Crimean side ( even if they are likely to be half-assed checks) and then back again.

[Grandpa]

Unfortunately we will never likely be shown true forensic evidence that hasn't been fabricated or doctored by Russia. Also any statements and "confessions" would also most likely be unreliable and given under duress if not totally made up.

What explosives were used and where did they originate from? Those are the key questions that would help to isolate a possible chain of events. If a truck bomb was involved then the explosives must originate from within Russia, seems to be totally unfeasible for Ukraine to covertly transport them into Russia to avoid the security checks on the Crimean side ( even if they are likely to be half-assed checks) and then back again.

That's what I find difficult... that this was all set up in Russia...

[fishfoodie]

Unfortunately we will never likely be shown true forensic evidence that hasn't been fabricated or doctored by Russia. Also any statements and "confessions" would also most likely be unreliable and given under duress if not totally made up.

What explosives were used and where did they originate from? Those are the key questions that would help to isolate a possible chain of events. If a truck bomb was involved then the explosives must originate from within Russia, seems to be totally unfeasible for Ukraine to covertly transport them into Russia to avoid the security checks on the Crimean side ( even if they are likely to be half-assed checks) and then back again.

That's what I find difficult... that this was all set up in Russia...

Or Georgia, or Crimea, where there's plenty of people who hate the Russians !

If the IRA could assemble massive IEDs in a small place like NI, under the noses of the British Army, & Intelligence services; how hard would it be in a place as chaotic, corrupt, & inefficient as Russia ?

[Jock42]

Have UKR forces used VBIEDs before? Anti-Putin Russian elements have though.

What are Alexander's qualifications in engineering/explosives?

[tabascoboy]

Not that it means anything necessarily but the FSB said five of those arrested and held were Russians, while the others were Ukrainian and Armenian. A false flag op is a possibility but also pro-Ukraine sympathisers or anti-Putin elements in the FSB trying to stir it up. Honestly though speculation is a little pointless and doubt we'll know for a long time if ever

[ASMO]

The West spent 60 years shitting themself about this?

The 3rd Reich rolled thru Russia, & on to Moscow, & down to the Black Sea, & took millions of prisoners in weeks in 1941.

But the Russian army regrouped, & once it was led by real Generals, & properly equipped, the Russian soldiers out fought & out thought the best the Wehrmacht could throw at them !

By the time the war ended, the Russians Army was a formidable animal.

Without American weaponry and equipment transfers via the Arctic convoys Russia would have been toast by the end of 1942. In the Cold War era the USSR was a beaten docket by 1980, the technology race with the West was lost exponentially from the late 1960s.

It was sheer weight of numbers, couple with Adolf issuing stupid orders that did for the Germans in Russia, the Russian soldier whilst very hardy, was extremely low skilled, basically farm boys put into uniform, given a gun with a few rounds and sent to the front line as cadre.

[Grandpa]

Unfortunately we will never likely be shown true forensic evidence that hasn't been fabricated or doctored by Russia. Also any statements and "confessions" would also most likely be unreliable and given under duress if not totally made up.

What explosives were used and where did they originate from? Those are the key questions that would help to isolate a possible chain of events. If a truck bomb was involved then the explosives must originate from within Russia, seems to be totally unfeasible for Ukraine to covertly transport them into Russia to avoid the security checks on the Crimean side ( even if they are likely to be half-assed checks) and then back again.

That's what I find difficult... that this was all set up in Russia...

Or Georgia, or Crimea, where there's plenty of people who hate the Russians !

If the IRA could assemble massive IEDs in a small place like NI, under the noses of the British Army, & Intelligence services; how hard would it be in a place as chaotic, corrupt, & inefficient as Russia ?

But those trucks are scanned top to bottom allegedly... Truck driver to scannerman... here's 100 roubles... they're blow up dolls, not bombs... got it?

You're right. Should have sent across a convoy.. just to make sure!

[tabascoboy]

And yet another opinion

Mika Tyry, a retired military demolition specialist, told YLE, Finland's national broadcaster, that the flames and sparks are consistent with a thermite bomb. Russia's military has been known to use thermite, though Ukraine could have recovered the substance from unexploded Russian munitions.

"It's a successful attack on a guarded structure, with advanced explosives, and timed with the train," Barr says. "That's highly suggestive of a carefully planned military operation rather than a lone actor or other group."

[PornDog]

The train could just be a happy coincidence though.

[tabascoboy]

The train could just be a happy coincidence though.

Yes albeit one helluva fortunate coincidence - although rail traffic might be frequent enough to make it fair odds

[fishfoodie]

The train could just be a happy coincidence though.

Yes albeit one helluva fortunate coincidence - although rail traffic might be frequent enough to make it fair odds

Trains also run to a schedule, but even then, your timing is going to have to be very good, when the you're moving a say 100kph, & the train could be going at the same speed .

[PornDog]

The train could just be a happy coincidence though.

Yes albeit one helluva fortunate coincidence - although rail traffic might be frequent enough to make it fair odds

that and add in a bit of observation and you could certainly work it to increase the odds slightly in your favour, but I'm not convinced it goes anything beyond that

[Raggs]

Surely the railway would have been the primary target? Isn't that how a lot of logistics are getting into/through Ukraine.