Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Curious the text above omits the eye watering subsidies we are having to offer. Given the size of packages EU been supporting with of late I do hope we're not trying to subsides beyond reason without a meaningful aim on how to link these sites with an actual industrial strategy. But it wouldn't surprise me.

https://www.ft.com/content/95cfea00-a5a ... 70e827d6e1

I heard we were coughing up £800 million, but not all for the car side, some of doing the car thing is conditional on funding some of Tata's steel concerns too.

Even then it's not massive, even £800 million isn't a drop stacked alongside US bribes (investment opportunities), but we're setting out with an intent to be small/niche. of course small and niche is what we are, but our attempts will need to be well thought out and as much as possible joined up because inertia will not be our friend. Still, this is the world we wanted with less multilateral cooperation, one's thanks as always to the 52%

There's no world in which the Americans are pursuing the economic policies that they are where we wouldn't have to chuck cash at firms to come here/stay. Of course there's a fair few firms who realise that the government is absolutely desperate for a win, hence Musk's recent antics. £800m sounds as you say like a small price to pay, particularly if we can join this up beyond Bridgewater (whilst I won't hold my breath this does strike me as the kind of thing Sunak may be quite tuned into, we'll see).

I wasn't suggesting £800 million to an Indian company was a small price to pay, it's rather a lot, even if for perhaps not very much.

More it's a small piddling sum compared to what's up for grabs in the EU, in China, and especially it would seem with the IRA in the USA

If we get a lot for this £800 million spend to fund a non British company then this in isolation may prove a good idea, though brought to use by this Tory government, a combination of the corrupt and incompetent, I'm not holding my breath. Bigger picture even if this works we're going to need a lot more similar spends, and as ever they're being very opaque about how that's going to happen or even if.

[C69]

So Braverman and Sunak have been criticised for being dangerous racists by promoting the notion that sexual grooming is predominantly a Pakistani community thing.
My Pakistani mate really hates the shower that is this government because they are clearly anti Pakistani and downright racist cnuts

[Sandstorm]

My Pakistani mate really hates the shower

That's racist!

[C69]

My Pakistani mate really hates the shower

That's racist!

Tbh he does smell of curry obvs

[TheNatalShark]

I heard we were coughing up £800 million, but not all for the car side, some of doing the car thing is conditional on funding some of Tata's steel concerns too.

Even then it's not massive, even £800 million isn't a drop stacked alongside US bribes (investment opportunities), but we're setting out with an intent to be small/niche. of course small and niche is what we are, but our attempts will need to be well thought out and as much as possible joined up because inertia will not be our friend. Still, this is the world we wanted with less multilateral cooperation, one's thanks as always to the 52%

There's no world in which the Americans are pursuing the economic policies that they are where we wouldn't have to chuck cash at firms to come here/stay. Of course there's a fair few firms who realise that the government is absolutely desperate for a win, hence Musk's recent antics. £800m sounds as you say like a small price to pay, particularly if we can join this up beyond Bridgewater (whilst I won't hold my breath this does strike me as the kind of thing Sunak may be quite tuned into, we'll see).

I wasn't suggesting £800 million to an Indian company was a small price to pay, it's rather a lot, even if for perhaps not very much.

More it's a small piddling sum compared to what's up for grabs in the EU, in China, and especially it would seem with the IRA in the USA

If we get a lot for this £800 million spend to fund a non British company then this in isolation may prove a good idea, though brought to use by this Tory government, a combination of the corrupt and incompetent, I'm not holding my breath. Bigger picture even if this works we're going to need a lot more similar spends, and as ever they're being very opaque about how that's going to happen or even if.

The £800 figure comes from £300 steel works gov offer (not deemed enough) and £500 initial request car side (with which may go up due to Spain competition).

Yes, the point is this is a lot if it's just trying to throw at whatever we think can win, rather what purpose it serves complimenting national strategy. Under our mindsets, which are unlikely to change, we're blown out of water by IRA and Green deal. I think we'll be squeezed beyond what EU is as we've seen manufacturers just quote brexit uncertainties even when not valid... and we fold.

[TheNatalShark]

This is actually profoundly sad that humanity didn't put its hand up https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65708358
Bet any fucking money in the world if the hotel owner was called Sir Charles Chumlywombly he would have been in the plane with all his monocles

Should have known better and ran a sanctuary for stray cats and donkeys to ensure evacuation.

[dpedin]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-c ... e-63971493

Looks like some folk did ok from Covid!

[tabascoboy]

This is actually profoundly sad that humanity didn't put its hand up https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-65708358
Bet any fucking money in the world if the hotel owner was called Sir Charles Chumlywombly he would have been in the plane with all his monocles

As soon as he got here they'd only try and pack him off to Rwanda most likely...

[Hal Jordan]

Some good news:

The UK is set to win a battle with Spain to host a multi-billion-pound electric car battery plant in Somerset, the BBC understands

The boss of Jaguar Land Rover-owner Tata is expected to fly to London next week to finalise the deal.

Some in the car industry have described the plant as the most significant investment in UK automotive since Nissan came to Britain in the 1980s.

Tata's chairman is scheduled to meet the prime minister mid-next week.

Sources familiar with the matter say that although the deal has yet to be signed, engagement has moved from negotiations to drafting and choreography of how the landmark agreement will be presented.

Up to 9,000 jobs would be created at the Bridgwater site, close to the M5.

UK car industry, brexit and electrification is absolutely tragic. Just a horrible own goal after some good work from successive governments. UK had jlr with the ipace and Nissan with leaf and then we decided to kick ourselves as hard as possible in the bollocks. This needed to happen 4 -5 years ago.

JLR have completely fucked the pooch over electrification. Nissan hung onto the Leaf way too long, but the new Ariya looks a good product to cram into the ravenous maw of the public's appetite for SUVs.

But JLR. They had a sporty, if a little flawed, super SUV at a time when the competition was very thin indeed. The Model X, a lardy MPV with a mentalist rocket up its arse, the Audi E-tron and Mercedes EQC didn't come out until a year later, and the Hyundai Kona was around, but a different class altogether.

And they did fuck all with it. They could have stuck the platform under an Evoque type shell and the Chelsea tractor crowd would have been beating down their door.

Now they're titting about with a risible plug in Range Rover and looking utterly clueless.

[_Os_]

Gilts are wobbling on this inflation data.

UK 10Y bond is at 4.365%, for some context Italy 10Y is at 4.390%. The market is pricing UK government debt and Italian government debt essentially the same. UK 10Y yield was 4.5% during the Truss meltdown.

BoE rate at 5.5% looks absolutely locked in now. That'll mean severe pain for a lot of mortgage holders and small businesses that have loans. At that level it starts edging into mass bankruptcy territory given how leveraged everything is. If that is bad enough and lasts long enough, then it risks a huge housing market collapse, the housing market having become a proxy for the UK economy which has sucked in tremendous amounts of private investment, means that'll be much worse than just a price correction in an asset people aren't much interested in.

Looking down the barrel of structurally high inflation and high interest rates, in a highly indebted economy. Sunak risks overseeing a Truss type meltdown in slow motion.

[Tichtheid]

Gilts are wobbling on this inflation data.

UK 10Y bond is at 4.365%, for some context Italy 10Y is at 4.390%. The market is pricing UK government debt and Italian government debt essentially the same. UK 10Y yield was 4.5% during the Truss meltdown.

BoE rate at 5.5% looks absolutely locked in now. That'll mean severe pain for a lot of mortgage holders and small businesses that have loans. At that level it starts edging into mass bankruptcy territory given how leveraged everything is. If that is bad enough and lasts long enough, then it risks a huge housing market collapse, the housing market having become a proxy for the UK economy which has sucked in tremendous amounts of private investment, means that'll be much worse than just a price correction in an asset people aren't much interested in.

Looking down the barrel of structurally high inflation and high interest rates, in a highly indebted economy. Sunak risks overseeing a Truss type meltdown in slow motion.

We live near a bus route to the universities and as such there are a lot of HMOs which are let to students, in fact the area is saturated to the point that no more HMO licences are allowed. This started around fifteen years ago,

I have noticed that a lot of those HMO properties are currently on the market whereas before they were like hen's teeth.

[_Os_]

We live near a bus route to the universities and as such there are a lot of HMOs which are let to students, in fact the area is saturated to the point that no more HMO licences are allowed. This started around fifteen years ago,

I have noticed that a lot of those HMO properties are currently on the market whereas before they were like hen's teeth.

Hard to know what's going on there without looking at the properties and seeing the numbers.

But the following would not be good: Bought in the last 5 years or so (the mortgage is going to be large), did a lot of work putting bathrooms into each room etc (costs that have to be recouped through the rent and/or remortgage). HMOs are also a pain to keep fully in rent, they're often carrying voids, which is a problem if someone has costed everything based on a yield that assumes full occupancy. An additional issue specific to university towns/cities like yours, is corporate landlords building large student focused blocks of flats (sometimes with extras like security/gym/shop), parents often favour that over a HMO even if the student does not, which leaves the small/medium HMO struggling for market share.

Easy to see how someone looks at something like that and decides "this is a massive debt, interest rates are going up, it's difficult just getting all these rooms rented all the time, I can still wash my face on this if it's shovelled out of the door asap". Somewhere on this thread around last May/June/July I posted to "fix your mortgage now" before the shit storm came. That was also the time to dispose of a HMO like that, if the numbers are different (smaller mortgage) maybe it gets kept, but that still leaves the large corporate competitor issue.

Highly geared HMO is the first thing out of the door though, probably to another property investor that has more cash and/or is fine with the risk. If they're not selling and staying on the market, someone is possibly going under.

[fishfoodie]

Gilts are wobbling on this inflation data.

UK 10Y bond is at 4.365%, for some context Italy 10Y is at 4.390%. The market is pricing UK government debt and Italian government debt essentially the same. UK 10Y yield was 4.5% during the Truss meltdown.

BoE rate at 5.5% looks absolutely locked in now. That'll mean severe pain for a lot of mortgage holders and small businesses that have loans. At that level it starts edging into mass bankruptcy territory given how leveraged everything is. If that is bad enough and lasts long enough, then it risks a huge housing market collapse, the housing market having become a proxy for the UK economy which has sucked in tremendous amounts of private investment, means that'll be much worse than just a price correction in an asset people aren't much interested in.

Looking down the barrel of structurally high inflation and high interest rates, in a highly indebted economy. Sunak risks overseeing a Truss type meltdown in slow motion.

More than 1.4 million households in the UK are facing the prospect of interest rate rises when they renew their fixed rate mortgages in 2023.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2023-01-09

That's a very large number of pissed off voters !

Are there ~2 million voters who give a shit about small boats ???, because that apparently is a higher priority to the Tories.

[Raggs]

I checked how much our mortgage would have been had it come roughly 6 months later, from £850 a month to something like £1500. We'd have been priced out basically, bank wouldn't have given it to us. Thankfully, we got a 5 year fix, hoping that things get better by then. At the very least we'll hopefully be into 60% LTV (though I guess not if house prices crash).

[Rhubarb & Custard]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

They can't really act on productivity problems, they've kicked us out of the single market and customs union and that's just what it is now, but that adds to long terms problems in productivity with the drop off in investments, and they've got nothing in place to replace/rebuild the UK investment/productivity problems, they don't have the imaginings of a raving lunatic that they could start to work towards that could possibly work, they would if they listened to Mogg or Farage have the ravings of a lunatic

Which leaves them two real areas to act against inflation problems, one comes from the BoE who will surely be raising rates further, the other comes in worker numbers. If they really respond to the 600,000 net migration figure by dialing back legal migration that shoves pretty much all of our response to inflation over to the BoE and their future adjustments to interest rates. And the BoE in isolation can't really act quickly enough you'd think to increase rates such they can offset what now looks some baked in inflation risks, not if the latest reports on inflation are correct.

So unless they want interest rates back over 7%, or even 6% in the nearer term if one wants less drama in speculation, they need to continue with similar migration levels, perhaps even increase them, and it would help if they were honest about that.

There simply isn't a magic red button they can press that solves productivity, inflation and migration. And whatever they choose it will have unpopular consequences somewhere else in UK society, at least unpopular for many.

[Biffer]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

They can't really act on productivity problems, they've kicked us out of the single market and customs union and that's just what it is now, but that adds to long terms problems in productivity with the drop off in investments, and they've got nothing in place to replace/rebuild the UK investment/productivity problems, they don't have the imaginings of a raving lunatic that they could start to work towards that could possibly work, they would if they listened to Mogg or Farage have the ravings of a lunatic

Which leaves them two real areas to act against inflation problems, one comes from the BoE who will surely be raising rates further, the other comes in worker numbers. If they really respond to the 600,000 net migration figure by dialing back legal migration that shoves pretty much all of our response to inflation over to the BoE and their future adjustments to interest rates. And the BoE in isolation can't really act quickly enough you'd think to increase rates such they can offset what now looks some baked in inflation risks, not if the latest reports on inflation are correct.

So unless they want interest rates back over 7%, or even 6% in the nearer term if one wants less drama in speculation, they need to continue with similar migration levels, perhaps even increase them, and it would help if they were honest about that.

There simply isn't a magic red button they can press that solves productivity, inflation and migration. And whatever they choose it will have unpopular consequences somewhere else in UK society, at least unpopular for many.

Productivity is the key. But our govt isn't prepared to make the right investments. They make the right noises and even recognise the right sectors, but they're not prepared to invest in the right way, for the long term. Advanced manufacturing, quantum tech, space sector, renewable energy, novel materials, bespoke semiconductor fabrication. All things we can do, and they'd create jobs that are very difficult to offshore. But they require significant investment and our govt isn't prepared to do it.

[fishfoodie]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

Burn the witch !!!!!!

What good would hundreds of thousands more tax payers do to help the balance the books ?

What good would filling some of the million or so vacancies do to help businesses be more productive ?

What good would filling all those vacancies in the NHS do to help reduce waiting lists, & returning sick people to the workforce do ?

There simply isn't a magic red button they can press that solves productivity, inflation and migration. And whatever they choose it will have unpopular consequences somewhere else in UK society, at least unpopular for many.

Maybe not, but if the red button is admitting you've seriously fucked up with a previous decision, it's damn sight easier to fix all the subsidiary issues, because you're at least acknowledging the source.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

They can't really act on productivity problems, they've kicked us out of the single market and customs union and that's just what it is now, but that adds to long terms problems in productivity with the drop off in investments, and they've got nothing in place to replace/rebuild the UK investment/productivity problems, they don't have the imaginings of a raving lunatic that they could start to work towards that could possibly work, they would if they listened to Mogg or Farage have the ravings of a lunatic

Which leaves them two real areas to act against inflation problems, one comes from the BoE who will surely be raising rates further, the other comes in worker numbers. If they really respond to the 600,000 net migration figure by dialing back legal migration that shoves pretty much all of our response to inflation over to the BoE and their future adjustments to interest rates. And the BoE in isolation can't really act quickly enough you'd think to increase rates such they can offset what now looks some baked in inflation risks, not if the latest reports on inflation are correct.

So unless they want interest rates back over 7%, or even 6% in the nearer term if one wants less drama in speculation, they need to continue with similar migration levels, perhaps even increase them, and it would help if they were honest about that.

There simply isn't a magic red button they can press that solves productivity, inflation and migration. And whatever they choose it will have unpopular consequences somewhere else in UK society, at least unpopular for many.

Productivity is the key. But our govt isn't prepared to make the right investments. They make the right noises and even recognise the right sectors, but they're not prepared to invest in the right way, for the long term. Advanced manufacturing, quantum tech, space sector, renewable energy, novel materials, bespoke semiconductor fabrication. All things we can do, and they'd create jobs that are very difficult to offshore. But they require significant investment and our govt isn't prepared to do it.

Do it, or even in the first instance just bloody talk about it. Why they persist with the notion their thinking needs to be a secret I simply don't understand, they could get a lot of useful input for free. Instead they have their select consultants who for the most part can't tell shit from shinola.

At some point they really need to shift business policy away from the Boris themed 'fuck business' but they're still a ways off even trying to engage sensibly. There's something of a joke in there, but actually their reliance on consultants (often with oddly funded agendas) is becoming increasingly worrying

[Rhubarb & Custard]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

Burn the witch !!!!!!

What good would hundreds of thousands more tax payers do to help the balance the books ?

What good would filling some of the million or so vacancies do to help businesses be more productive ?

What good would filling all those vacancies in the NHS do to help reduce waiting lists, & returning sick people to the workforce do ?

There simply isn't a magic red button they can press that solves productivity, inflation and migration. And whatever they choose it will have unpopular consequences somewhere else in UK society, at least unpopular for many.

Maybe not, but if the red button is admitting you've seriously fucked up with a previous decision, it's damn sight easier to fix all the subsidiary issues, because you're at least acknowledging the source.

They don't even need to accept they've badly screwed the pooch. But when it comes to Brexit whether you think it's a good idea for the economy or you're sane there still needs to be an alternative view which can be discussed, planned for and acted upon which makes some sense, whereas they've basically got nothing. And got nothing after Moggy spent lord knows how much as Minister for Brexit Opportunities, bloody maddening they're spending a fortune on doing nothing, they could be no help for free

[_Os_]

Rhubarb's trifecta of productivity, inflation and migration. Is about the size of it.

What we're really talking about is the failure of Thatcherism (or being kinder the end of its usefulness). Thatcherites still exist. At one of the recent Tory adjacent conferences/mad hatter tea parties some guy stated in a speech at the podium he had been "communing with Thatcher", he believed he was talking to dead Thatcher. In the council elections some Tory member did their canvassing whilst carrying a large portrait of Thatcher with them, which reminded me of Russian Orthodox icons.

Blair gets blamed for immigration. But the UK was a net exporter of people before Thatcher, net emigration switched to net immigration in the 1980s. Everything since has just been a continuation of that trend. Thatcher was responsible for the Single Market also. Since Thatcher the UK's labour market has been large (via migration) and loosely regulated, with a tilt towards the unskilled, that was done on purpose to undermine labour union bargaining power to the benefit of the wealthy/owners. The aim isn't for extremely highly skilled workers in jobs for life with immense unionised bargaining power, the aim is for the opposite of that.

The other element of Thatcherism, is they don't want the state to exist, because a strong state would also threaten the wealthy/owners (it would tax them, and where the state has a monopoly stop them making profits/extracting rents). When it's obvious anywhere with a strong state has done quite a bit since the 1980s and often more than the UK (China being the most well known).

The Tories are completely incapable of changing any of this, they're far too Thatcherite. If you told the average Tory member low productivity and mass migration is the end point of Thatcherism, they wouldn't believe you. Nor would they understand that something different inevitably means unions becoming stronger. They hate the unions and the migrants ... and love Thatcher.

[_Os_]

Just remembered this Tweet from a big brain at the IEA. It doesn't come more Thatcherite. The ideology is about free trade, including in labour. He focuses on doctors in the thread, but the ideology is about competition across the labour market. Even with doctors he says there should be international competition for the training places in the UK. In the final Tweet in the thread he says restricting immigration is "wallowing in fantasy border controls".

One of the unremarked things about Thatcherism is it's massively pro open borders. Take that out and the foundation of the UK economy for the last 40 years is gone, and as the IEA big brain says the alternative looks a lot more socialist. Which isn't good for billionaire oligarchs who fund Tufton Street thinktanks.

[Line6 HXFX]

Say what you like about brexit, there are lots of British people in work today because of it. Just heard about a guy in his fifties, who was litteralky freezing and starving in his home, and as soon as the local industrial bakery was not permitted to employ masses of 20 year old polish people, guess who had a job, having never been given a look in?

You cannot argue there is a massive human cost of cheap foriegn labour, and its ability to basically paper over all the failings of our political class in terms of training, education, low pay.
Unfortunately this fifty year old unemployed guy is precisely who the tories have been going after, and would be called a scrounger, be terrorised by the job centre, removed from society altogether, be moralised at (by lots of Polish/Czech people btw, who did about as much to smear and slander the English worker as anyone) whilst he starved and froze.

Now, litterally because of Brexit his life has turned around.

O.K...the Bakery is probably going to move to Poland at any second (joking)..but still.

[GogLais]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

Burn the witch !!!!!!

What good would hundreds of thousands more tax payers do to help the balance the books ?

What good would filling some of the million or so vacancies do to help businesses be more productive ?

What good would filling all those vacancies in the NHS do to help reduce waiting lists, & returning sick people to the workforce do ?

All true. But to be a bit Farageist if things continue as they are in ten years we’d have the best part of another London to house, feed and water. That’s a pretty big issue to address. And I know the current figures are affected by HK and Ukraine but you’d have to be very optimistic to assume that future years won’t have similar crises.

[Line6 HXFX]

What good would all these immigrants do, to the people here, when they smear and slander the living fuck out of the poor sick and unemployed, (everyone who is unemployed for 3 days)..and then have to resort to mental health services from being broken by life?
You ask a Polish person a South African and a Australian their views in the English unemployed, and in any other area of life they would be up for slander.

There is a massive societal, damaging cost of immigration on the mental wellbeing and confidence of people.

There are currently 5 million British people, who are now being eviserated in the press, as being lazy, workshy etc (because brexit is a failure) ...after 13 years of some of the harshest welfare reforms on the planet.

A lot of the hatred and division in society, that lead to Brexit stemmed from foriegn workers and the narratives created by the employers who employ them.

[sockwithaticket]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

Burn the witch !!!!!!

What good would hundreds of thousands more tax payers do to help the balance the books ?

What good would filling some of the million or so vacancies do to help businesses be more productive ?

What good would filling all those vacancies in the NHS do to help reduce waiting lists, & returning sick people to the workforce do ?

All true. But to be a bit Farageist if things continue as they are in ten years we’d have the best part of another London to house, feed and water. That’s a pretty big issue to address. And I know the current figures are affected by HK and Ukraine but you’d have to be very optimistic to assume that future years won’t have similar crises.

And with my NIMBY hat on, WWF's latest claim is that the UK is one of the most nature depleted nations in the world. If we keep drastically expanding the population and accommodating them with necessary housing and services expansions (the latter not guaranteed, sure), then we're just going to keep annihilating wildlife. Some might not give a shit about voles or butterflies, but I think the critters are part of what makes the character of country and life worth living. Even just from a pragmatic standpoint we need to stop the insect armageddon, micro-drones are a pie in the sky sollution to losing all our pollinators.

[Paddington Bear]

One of the odd things about government rhetoric on immigrants is given all else they really need them.

Burn the witch !!!!!!

What good would hundreds of thousands more tax payers do to help the balance the books ?

What good would filling some of the million or so vacancies do to help businesses be more productive ?

What good would filling all those vacancies in the NHS do to help reduce waiting lists, & returning sick people to the workforce do ?

All true. But to be a bit Farageist if things continue as they are in ten years we’d have the best part of another London to house, feed and water. That’s a pretty big issue to address. And I know the current figures are affected by HK and Ukraine but you’d have to be very optimistic to assume that future years won’t have similar crises.

Yep. You can argue that 600k a year is a fine level of migration, but you can’t do so unless you explain:
1) how you’re going to house these people given we tend to build c.150-200,000 housing units a year and have a massive backlog already
2) how you’ll provide services at anything resembling an acceptable level given, again, we have a backlog on just about everything
3) how you plan to integrate such large numbers and create a cohesive society during a period of totally unprecedented demographic change.

3) tbh is my biggest worry. I know a lot of British asians who are deeply scared about the import of BJP politics to England over the last decade or so, and I tend to share that concern given how I’ve seen India change politically in the time I’ve been visiting.

[_Os_]

Say what you like about brexit, there are lots of British people in work today because of it. Just heard about a guy in his fifties, who was litteralky freezing and starving in his home, and as soon as the local industrial bakery was not permitted to employ masses of 20 year old polish people, guess who had a job, having never been given a look in?

You cannot argue there is a massive human cost of cheap foriegn labour, and its ability to basically paper over all the failings of our political class in terms of training, education, low pay.
Unfortunately this fifty year old unemployed guy is precisely who the tories have been going after, and would be called a scrounger, be terrorised by the job centre, removed from society altogether, be moralised at (by lots of Polish/Czech people btw, who did about as much to smear and slander the English worker as anyone) whilst he starved and froze.

Now, litterally because of Brexit his life has turned around.

O.K...the Bakery is probably going to move to Poland at any second (joking)..but still.

19% food price inflation explained in a single post!

Well not quite, there's also fuel price inflation that's feeding in. But we do end up back at Rhubarb's trifecta of productivity, inflation and migration. The UK has no replacement for migrant labour, getting rid of it and replacing it with washed up 50 year olds that couldn't/wouldn't work for lower wages, is (ironically given your posting history) something close to the Tory plan to force retired people back into work doing low skilled manual labour. At best this gives no productivity increase and makes inflation unavoidable. In other words almost everyone gets poorer.

What needs to happen, is the washed up 50 year old reskills into something which doesn't leave them vulnerable to being outcompeted by someone with literally no skills or even ability to speak English. They will have to make an effort themselves, but there'll have to be government money also. When this is all planned it'll quickly become apparent it's better to spend when people are younger, forcing young people to pay for a quality education may not be a smart move. There'll also have to be government backed incentives for employers to give the washed up 50 year old a chance, he'll find just having the skills isn't enough. The bakery will need to automate more, again there'll have to be government support (probably soft loans). Per every 10k workers South Korea has about 700 robots, Singapore around 650, Germany and Japan both about 350, the UK has around 70 to 100 which is closer to South Africa on 30 than a fully developed economy.

Anyone that attempts to solve Rhubarb's trifecta aka the Refry imaginary baker problem, quickly discovers it involves doing the exact opposite to what the UK has been doing for 40 years. They also discover it's going to be extremely difficult. The Tories in government and making choices, then decide pumping up immigration whilst blaming Labour and attacking the immigrants they rely on, is the answer.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Yes, although my thinking was around productivity, interest rates and migration and how that impacts inflation along with the wider economy. And given they've crapped on productivity by pushing first Brexit and then worse a hard Brexit do they really want to go after migration because that leaves the one major tool in the fight against inflation to be wielded by the BoE. I'd suggest that was simply crazy as a strategy in advance, to rely so on interest rates with the increasing risk inflation is presenting, but these are the people who think Brexit makes a convincing economic case so I can't say I'm confident.

I would note the problems with productivity predate Brexit, just Brexit made the situation much worse again and the government have done nothing significant to address the problem. Our government are the Golgafrinchans arguing what colour to paint the square wheel. It is possible to address productivity even with Brexit having made things worse, but that's a really long term piece of thinking/action required and for the next few months what's done is done, they could start make good decisions now and it'd make little difference for a long time, not that they have started making good decisions

(these comments about Brexit pertain to an economic case for/against Brexit, whilst I loathe the concept myself I'm more than happy to concede others can have perfectly sound arguments around sovereignty issues and to hell with the money)

[_Os_]

Yes, although my thinking was around productivity, interest rates and migration and how that impacts inflation along with the wider economy. And given they've crapped on productivity by pushing first Brexit and then worse a hard Brexit do they really want to go after migration because that leaves the one major tool in the fight against inflation to be wielded by the BoE. I'd suggest that was simply crazy as a strategy in advance, to rely so on interest rates with the increasing risk inflation is presenting, but these are the people who think Brexit makes a convincing economic case so I can't say I'm confident.

Scary but possible. Some numbers from memory (they'll be close though) on what high interests and a housing collapse would mean.

UK housing stock is valued at about £9tn.
Residential mortgages are around half (majority?) of loans in the UK financial system. Some banks have well over 50% of their loan book made up of residential mortgage debt.
Lloyds alone has about a third of a trillion of outstanding UK mortgage debt on its books, about £50bn of that buy to let.
Help To Buy is about £30bn of loans, and is all highly exposed to any collapse.
Pension funds are invested in property through real estate investment trusts, which enabled them to invest into large tranches of property. Not sure about the numbers here.

Something that should be just another uninteresting commodity, has been turned into an financial asset an entire nation is completely obsessed by. People have poured their entire life's work into property, they've used it for saving/pension/inheritance. The property market has become a proxy for the UK economy. Madness but that's the situation. If it collapses (and interests rates over 5% is a good place to start) the damage is going to be everywhere.

[Tichtheid]

UK ministers engaged in bitter fight to halt release of Covid secrets

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... id-secrets

[fishfoodie]

UK ministers engaged in bitter fight to halt release of Covid secrets

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... id-secrets

Rather buggers up their plans to dump all the responsibility for shit decisions, & non-decision on the odious Hancock.

Now they'll all have to take the fair share of the shit !

[Blackmac]

MPs asked to repay driving fines claimed on expenses https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65736601

Not necessarily just a Tory issue, but this is extraordinary. Why would any of these grasping pieces of shit think that the taxpayer should be picking up the tab for their court fines.

[tabascoboy]

[SaintK]

There's only so much botox and lip filler in the world. She looks like she's cornered the market!!!

[fishfoodie]

There's only so much botox and lip filler in the world. She looks like she's cornered the market!!!

She now looks like a goldfish, as well has having the intellectual capacity of one

[tabascoboy]

No shit...

Steve Barclay admits some new hospitals won't be brand new

Health Secretary Steve Barclay has admitted not all the 40 new hospitals promised for England by 2030 will be brand new.

He told the BBC the pledge covered a "range" of building work. Refurbishments and new wings are also included in the figure.

Mr Barclay also acknowledged that some of the hospitals originally promised would now be completed after 2030 but a total of 40 projects would still be finished by that date.

Pressed over whether a refurbishment could be considered a "new" hospital, Mr Barclay told the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme: "If it's a new wing, a new facility, a women's and children hospital for example as part of a wider compass... what matters to you as a patient is whether the facilities are state of the art, whether they're new."

• Work yet to start on 33 of 40 new hospitals

Mr Barclay said: "We're being honest in saying there will be difficulties on some of the schemes. There's often local factors that need to be worked through like land acquisitions, service redesign… which make it challenging to complete those by 2030."

He added: "We are being honest that some schemes will take slightly longer than 2030 but we're going to get on with them."

The commitment to build 40 new hospitals by 2030 was made by Boris Johnson and included in the Conservative Party's 2019 manifesto. However, this week the government said eight schemes would now be completed after 2030 to prioritise five other more urgent developments. The five hospitals are deemed at risk of collapse because of deteriorating concrete infrastructure.

Earlier this week Mr Barclay insisted the government would still meet its manifesto pledge because as well as these five hospitals it would also build three mental health hospitals on top of the original projects promised.

On Sunday's programme he continued to refer to "40 new hospitals" even though he finally accepted that not all of them would be brand new.

He told the BBC: "What the manifesto said was 40 new hospitals, that is what we committed to in the House [of Commons] on Thursday."

A BBC investigation last week found building work was yet to start for 33 of the government's promised 40 new hospitals.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65737681

[Tichtheid]

[Slick]

We need to be able to check these cunts finances for the next 20 years to make sure they are not receiving any of this cash, even after they have left Parliament.

[Slick]

MPs asked to repay driving fines claimed on expenses https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65736601

Not necessarily just a Tory issue, but this is extraordinary. Why would any of these grasping pieces of shit think that the taxpayer should be picking up the tab for their court fines.

In a statement, Mr Afolami said: "[It was] completely inadvertent. All money repaid the moment that I knew about it."

Completely inadvertently filled in a claim form and submitted it.

[C69]

Out of curiosity, why has the ex countdown Gilf got such a dislike of the Tories and has got so vocal over the last year or so?