What's going on in Ukraine?

[Raggs]

Even "funnier" considering how much Russian money there is influencing us.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[geordie_6]

Gornyak is well on its way to becoming an artificial reef...

[tabascoboy]

[TB63]

[TB63]

Bit of a list there..

[tabascoboy]

The attack earlier if launched from territory of Ukraine was a range of ~700km

[tabascoboy]

WSW of Donets'k

[tabascoboy]

[Niegs]

WSW of Donets'k

That looks like an ideal spot for camping, launching a canoe, a bit of swimming ... in better times.

[geordie_6]

BBC reporting a naval drone strike on a Russian Tanker newr the bridge, may account for the explosion.

[tabascoboy]

BBC reporting a naval drone strike on a Russian Tanker newr the bridge, may account for the explosion.

Yep seems that way

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

BBC reporting a naval drone strike on a Russian Tanker newr the bridge, may account for the explosion.

Yep seems that way

Looks like it did a full 360 before blowing?

[Flockwitt]

That's Putin's goal. The war itself in terms of cash burn to maintain it is nothing Russia can't afford indefinitely. It is a case of what gives first where. Enormous number of variables in that last sentence though.

[Hellraiser]

Military analyst at the Royal Danish Defense College Anders Nielsen about the Wagner Group in Poland:

Many people are wondering if the Wagner Group is going to attack NATO countries from Belarus, for example, to attack the Suwalki Corridor. Naturally, the Russians now do not have the resources to start a war with Poland and NATO, at least openly.

Theoretically, the Russian leadership may try to organize some kind of "hybrid invasion" like "little green men" in Crimea. However, this will not work - this will not be a surprise for Poland and Lithuania, and the reaction to this will be tough, the counter scenarios have already been worked out. In addition, if there was a part of the population in Crimea that supported the invasion, it is difficult to find such people in the Suvalka corridor area.

The reaction of the Polish and Lithuanian governments will depend on the severity of the possible attack. If there is some minor provocation, it will be ignored. This is a NATO tactic developed since the beginning of a full-scale invasion. NATO countries believe that supplying Ukraine with weapons is a winning strategy in the war. At the same time, if you react to any provocation from the Russians, then this will divert resources to your own defense, which could be very useful to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, responding to minor provocations only delays the victory over the Russian Federation.

On the other hand, if something more ambitious happens that cannot be ignored, for example, the invasion of the Wagner Group contingent across the border, then the answer will be tough, and the Polish army will start the operation without dragging it out, and in it Prigozhin's mercenaries there will be little chance of survival.

Putin cannot yet abandon the Wagner Group, as they are too important for Russian influence in Africa. However, he will gladly replace Prigozhin with someone more reliable as soon as he can confidently do so.

In the end, it is much more logical for Prigozhin to go not to Poland and not to Ukraine - but to try to go to Moscow again. Waiting for the right moment to do so gives him a much better chance of surviving in the long run than the suicidal task of opening a new front.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

It's all pissing around the edges. There is fuck all appetite for this to continue without significant gains in the next 4-6 weeks
That's the elephant in the room. If Ukraine goes into the rainy season having regained basically nothing during the summer I can see support evaporating. Biden must be losing his fucking mind as this is manna from heaven for a significant core of Trumpian Republicans

The rainy season doesn't start until October, Kharkiv didn't happen until September, and it took until November to retake Kherson after the offensive began at the start of August. Stop doom-mongering.

[Zig]

They have fuck all time left to start making the investment in them look worthwhile

There's an argument that this war saved NATO and sparked the kind of defence spending in Europe that been needed for a long time. Old Soviet stocks from Eastern Europe are being donated to Ukraine and replaced by modern Western equipment. France is about to replace Russia as the world's 2nd largest arms supplier.

Western countries are benefitting more from this war than is being said publicly.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

They have fuck all time left to start making the investment in them look worthwhile

There's an argument that this war saved NATO and sparked the kind of defence spending in Europe that been needed for a long time. Old Soviet stocks from Eastern Europe are being donated to Ukraine and replaced by modern Western equipment. France is about to replace Russia as the world's 2nd largest arms supplier.

Western countries are benefitting more from this war than is being said publicly.

And the German defence industry has been shaken out of it's slumber.

[tc27]

Interestingly looks like someone in the UK rigged up ASRAAM to a Supacat truck to make instant SAM system for Ukraine.



If this was for the British army it would be ten years away and millions over budget

[derriz]

There is fuck all appetite for this to continue without significant gains in the next 4-6 weeks

Where are you getting this impression? The initial economic/energy/refugee crisis is well over so it makes fuck all difference to to average Western European or yank’s day-to-day whether the war goes on for ever or ends tomorrow at this stage. I see absolutely no political pressure or popular sentiment demanding an end to the war in the west. Except from some fringe loons on the extremes of the political spectrum.

[derriz]

The rise of the shinners is horrifying - but all I hear from supporters is whinging about homeless and there not being enough free houses for everyone and sugarcandymountain shit about how the country will be instantly transformed into a utopia once Mary Lou is in charge. Fuck all about Ukraine.

Even in the us - the Ukraine thing is a sideshow to the main culture war battle fronts - involving race and sex.

initial interest has between replaced largely by general apathy. My prediction is the war will continue for years, the west will continue to support Ukraine and the war will just become background noise in the news - like the Lebanese civil war was for us oldies for example

[Uncle fester]

There is fuck all appetite for this to continue without significant gains in the next 4-6 weeks

Where are you getting this impression? The initial economic/energy/refugee crisis is well over so it makes fuck all difference to to average Western European or yank’s day-to-day whether the war goes on for ever or ends tomorrow at this stage. I see absolutely no political pressure or popular sentiment demanding an end to the war in the west. Except from some fringe loons on the extremes of the political spectrum.

He's nursing a bad hangover.

[tc27]

The rise of SF in the RoI is horrifying for a number of reasons the Irish governments opinion on supporting Ukraine is an irrelevant.

[Hellraiser]

The rise of SF in Ireland is directly related to Russian funded troll-farms primarily based in Serbia, and our utterly incompetent and ignorant media.

[mat the expat]

They have fuck all time left to start making the investment in them look worthwhile

There's an argument that this war saved NATO and sparked the kind of defence spending in Europe that been needed for a long time. Old Soviet stocks from Eastern Europe are being donated to Ukraine and replaced by modern Western equipment. France is about to replace Russia as the world's 2nd largest arms supplier.

Western countries are benefitting more from this war than is being said publicly.

And the Live Alpha/Beta Testing of new upgrades, etc

Defence companies loving this

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Well this doesn't sound sus at all...

[tabascoboy]

2/ In the latest of a series of reports of Russian soldiers being illegally imprisoned by their own side, the wife of a mobilised Russian soldier from the 1430th Motorised Rifle Regiment says that her husband is being held in the former Ukrainian penal colony no. 15 in Perevalsk.

3/ This isn't the first time that the former prison, which has been partly destroyed by bombing, has appeared in the news. It was reported last year that mobilised Russians who were refusing to fight were being held there.

4/ It's likely that the facility has been designated as one of the Russian Army's "Concentration Rehabilitation Centres", used to discipline soldiers. It seems that it is now being used to imprison those who merely complain. According to the wife, as reported by ASTRA:

5/ "They have written complaints to the command of the 1430th regiment that they have no medical care or leave, that the mobilised are sent to the front line on the assault, that they have taken a lot of losses.

6/ "Specifically, my husband was concussed and asked for medical assistance. He also had a hypertensive crisis. He did not receive any medical help. Their appeals were accepted, they were told they would be taken to a rehabilitation centre and then assigned to another regiment.

7/ "When they came to pick them up, they were told that they were being taken to Perevalsk "to a rehabilitation centre". In fact, they ended up in prison. They were processed there so that they could continue their service.

8/ "He called from the prison once and literally immediately the phone was picked up by an unknown person, who did not introduce himself. He said that your husband is a traitor, we will inform everyone about it and send him to the pre-trial detention centre."

9/ The complaints about the lack of leave have been echoed widely in the Russian army, with many soldiers and their relatives complaining that they have been denied leave (or are being asked for large bribes to be given permission) for months.

10/ The 1430th Regiment in particular is reported to have taken huge losses in fighting around Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhya region. Russian medical care, sketchy at the best of times, is reportedly to have broken down completely with wounded left to die.

11/ It's not clear what will happen to the men sent to Perevalsk, but the odds are that they will end up being assigned – with or without a trial – to a 'Storm Z' penal battalion to be used as assault troops. /end

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://ezdubs-vod-api.com/result/16884 ... 7845_uk_en

[Hellraiser]

https://theins.ru/news/264067

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Another smoking related incident?

Russian media claim - “the cause of the explosion in the hangar with pyrotechnics in Sergiev Posad was the "human factor".

[tabascoboy]

Full text with images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1689 ... 57536.html