What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

[Brazil]

How far off are they from breaking through the fortified line in that case? I recall a discussion with OS where we reckoned Tokmak would be the key to turning the Russian flank in either direction, and there's still a way to go before they get there.

[dkm57]

I'm really interested to see how the Kozachi Laheri bridgehead develops, where elite Russian have been replaced with mobiks, so they could reinforce the areas under most Ukrainian pressure. Now the Russians are having to play wack-a-mole as the Russian troops in the Kherson area are being pushed back, so those same elite troops are being sent back south.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

How far off are they from breaking through the fortified line in that case? I recall a discussion with OS where we reckoned Tokmak would be the key to turning the Russian flank in either direction, and there's still a way to go before they get there.

After Robotyne there's basically no Russian positions for 8km until you get to Solodka Balka. Break the line there and Tokmak is in tube artillery range.

[_Os_]

How far off are they from breaking through the fortified line in that case? I recall a discussion with OS where we reckoned Tokmak would be the key to turning the Russian flank in either direction, and there's still a way to go before they get there.

They're through the first line there I think. But the Russians generally have two fortified lines in the south, depending which way Ukraine go from Robotyne there's one or two more fortified lines before the Russian's Tokmak laager. Outside the old Donetsk lines that have been built since 2014, this is probably the most heavily fortified bit of the frontline. Russians could be cracking here first, simply because they have more positions to retreat into. Ukraine also took the village of Piatykhatky a bit to the west of Robotyne in the last few days, the village of Novoprokopivka is directly south of Robotyne on the road to Tokmak and has minimal fortifications (on open source intel maps) so is probably the next to be taken.

This Google map has all the Russian fortifications shown from open source satellite imagery:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mi ... 5OkPJ_vUvQ
Some brief descriptions and examples from the map maker:
https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian- ... in-ukraine

I think by far the most significant news recently is Ukraine now appear to have two stable bridgeheads on the left bank (east side) of the Dnipro. Near Oleshky and near Kozachi Laheri. Reports are that Russian artillery is progressively working on those positions less and less, as Ukraine counterbattery fire destroys Russian artillery. Russian infantry attacking the bridgeheads in waves are met by Ukrainian artillery. Russian artillery seems completely degraded on the Kherson front, and the Russians didn't fortify there as much because of the Dnipro, Russia's Kherson defence was/is their artillery. If Ukraine is able to secure the area from Oleshky to Kozachi Laheri, enough to push armour over the Dnipro, then all the Russian fortifications in the south defending Crimea are bypassed (and the Russian Zaporizhia line of fortifications would also potentially become untenable, not only would there be Ukrainians attacking those positions from the north but from a southern direction too).

The Russians will be keen on keeping Ukraine out of Kherson/Dnipro's left bank, because if they don't potentially the entire southern front collapses and Crimea comes under huge pressure very quickly. It's maybe revealing that any Russian units reinforcing Kherson seem to be pulled from the frontline elsewhere (at least on my following of their movements and some reports), obviously if they had any reserve left they would be going to Kherson to close those Ukrainian bridgeheads. But no, they seem to be weakening the line elsewhere to strengthen Kherson which points to everything they have being in the fight now. Which opens the possibility of another Robotyne type crack appearing somewhere else in the line.

[Flockwitt]

The bridges that Ukraine have destroyed on the routes from Crimea to southern Kherson then Zap force the logistics along the west side then north and are in real danger of being compromised further if Ukraine can expand those bridgeheads.

[Brazil]

How far off are they from breaking through the fortified line in that case? I recall a discussion with OS where we reckoned Tokmak would be the key to turning the Russian flank in either direction, and there's still a way to go before they get there.

They're through the first line there I think. But the Russians generally have two fortified lines in the south, depending which way Ukraine go from Robotyne there's one or two more fortified lines before the Russian's Tokmak laager. Outside the old Donetsk lines that have been built since 2014, this is probably the most heavily fortified bit of the frontline. Russians could be cracking here first, simply because they have more positions to retreat into. Ukraine also took the village of Piatykhatky a bit to the west of Robotyne in the last few days, the village of Novoprokopivka is directly south of Robotyne on the road to Tokmak and has minimal fortifications (on open source intel maps) so is probably the next to be taken.

This Google map has all the Russian fortifications shown from open source satellite imagery:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mi ... 5OkPJ_vUvQ
Some brief descriptions and examples from the map maker:
https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian- ... in-ukraine

I think by far the most significant news recently is Ukraine now appear to have two stable bridgeheads on the left bank (east side) of the Dnipro. Near Oleshky and near Kozachi Laheri. Reports are that Russian artillery is progressively working on those positions less and less, as Ukraine counterbattery fire destroys Russian artillery. Russian infantry attacking the bridgeheads in waves are met by Ukrainian artillery. Russian artillery seems completely degraded on the Kherson front, and the Russians didn't fortify there as much because of the Dnipro, Russia's Kherson defence was/is their artillery. If Ukraine is able to secure the area from Oleshky to Kozachi Laheri, enough to push armour over the Dnipro, then all the Russian fortifications in the south defending Crimea are bypassed (and the Russian Zaporizhia line of fortifications would also potentially become untenable, not only would there be Ukrainians attacking those positions from the north but from a southern direction too).

The Russians will be keen on keeping Ukraine out of Kherson/Dnipro's left bank, because if they don't potentially the entire southern front collapses and Crimea comes under huge pressure very quickly. It's maybe revealing that any Russian units reinforcing Kherson seem to be pulled from the frontline elsewhere (at least on my following of their movements and some reports), obviously if they had any reserve left they would be going to Kherson to close those Ukrainian bridgeheads. But no, they seem to be weakening the line elsewhere to strengthen Kherson which points to everything they have being in the fight now. Which opens the possibility of another Robotyne type crack appearing somewhere else in the line.

The blowing of the dam really does look like a remarkable act of short-sighted cretinism, it's basically drained a massive anti-tank trench. If that map is accurate then the western flank could be wide open to attack, which gives the Ukrainian general staff some interesting choices as to where to concentrate. I suspect it will come down to where breaks first, but the approaches to Tokmak still look tough, so maybe the west is where the strike will come after some significant maskirovka around Robotyne and Tokmak. How long does the campaigning season run to in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

How far off are they from breaking through the fortified line in that case? I recall a discussion with OS where we reckoned Tokmak would be the key to turning the Russian flank in either direction, and there's still a way to go before they get there.

They're through the first line there I think. But the Russians generally have two fortified lines in the south, depending which way Ukraine go from Robotyne there's one or two more fortified lines before the Russian's Tokmak laager. Outside the old Donetsk lines that have been built since 2014, this is probably the most heavily fortified bit of the frontline. Russians could be cracking here first, simply because they have more positions to retreat into. Ukraine also took the village of Piatykhatky a bit to the west of Robotyne in the last few days, the village of Novoprokopivka is directly south of Robotyne on the road to Tokmak and has minimal fortifications (on open source intel maps) so is probably the next to be taken.

This Google map has all the Russian fortifications shown from open source satellite imagery:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mi ... 5OkPJ_vUvQ
Some brief descriptions and examples from the map maker:
https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian- ... in-ukraine

I think by far the most significant news recently is Ukraine now appear to have two stable bridgeheads on the left bank (east side) of the Dnipro. Near Oleshky and near Kozachi Laheri. Reports are that Russian artillery is progressively working on those positions less and less, as Ukraine counterbattery fire destroys Russian artillery. Russian infantry attacking the bridgeheads in waves are met by Ukrainian artillery. Russian artillery seems completely degraded on the Kherson front, and the Russians didn't fortify there as much because of the Dnipro, Russia's Kherson defence was/is their artillery. If Ukraine is able to secure the area from Oleshky to Kozachi Laheri, enough to push armour over the Dnipro, then all the Russian fortifications in the south defending Crimea are bypassed (and the Russian Zaporizhia line of fortifications would also potentially become untenable, not only would there be Ukrainians attacking those positions from the north but from a southern direction too).

The Russians will be keen on keeping Ukraine out of Kherson/Dnipro's left bank, because if they don't potentially the entire southern front collapses and Crimea comes under huge pressure very quickly. It's maybe revealing that any Russian units reinforcing Kherson seem to be pulled from the frontline elsewhere (at least on my following of their movements and some reports), obviously if they had any reserve left they would be going to Kherson to close those Ukrainian bridgeheads. But no, they seem to be weakening the line elsewhere to strengthen Kherson which points to everything they have being in the fight now. Which opens the possibility of another Robotyne type crack appearing somewhere else in the line.

The blowing of the dam really does look like a remarkable act of short-sighted cretinism, it's basically drained a massive anti-tank trench. If that map is accurate then the western flank could be wide open to attack, which gives the Ukrainian general staff some interesting choices as to where to concentrate. I suspect it will come down to where breaks first, but the approaches to Tokmak still look tough, so maybe the west is where the strike will come after some significant maskirovka around Robotyne and Tokmak. How long does the campaigning season run to in Ukraine?

Ideally they want to completely blow out the bridges at Chonhar and Heniches'k. This would leave only one route of retreat back into Crimea for Russian forces through Armiansk creating a choke point that would be completely exposed to missile and artillery fire.

With regards to the campaigning season, there is no real endpoint in the far South due to the soil types and a more arid climate. The soils in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are on a loess underlay meaning very free draining, unlike the heavier chernozems in the East and North. Even if things become static in most of Donbas, manoeuvre is still possible in the South through Autumn and Winter.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

And the full text with images for the above post for those who can't open Twitter: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1691 ... 16127.html

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

This vid shows what Ukrainian Dnipro raids were like back in January, and how old it is shows how long they've been happening. When old vids are released it means there's no op sec issue, so I'm guessing things are less contested where Ukraine is crossing.

[_Os_]

Ukraine's 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade have reportedly been sent into the Robotyne area. 2000 men mostly veterans, and trained in the UK on their new equipment including: 14 Challenger 2s, 90 Strykers, 40 Marders and 24 M119 howitzers.

Probably significant they've been sent in, as they're newly formed for the counter offensive, their purpose is to be a veteran heavy mech brigade kept in reserve and used to exploit gaps. Challenger has much tougher armour than Leo and Ukraine has less of them, looks like Ukraine is expecting quite fierce resistance in the Robotyne area if they're being used.

There's a very strong chance these Challenger 2s seen at the front are from the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade:

[_Os_]

That clip is from the madman who is nucking_futs_yuri and his ongoing exploits with the 59th Motorized Brigade. Full vid:

"A heavy assault together with the fighters of the 59th brigade: the Humvee in which I was riding with the fighters blew up, the tank that supported us blew up, Russian artillery covered us on a minefield, but the assault groups of the 59th brigade regrouped and went on the assault again, destroyed the resistance and shot down a Russian FPV drone and took one of the important Russian positions at the crossroads of landings that allows us to move forward. In the second part, we will show the captured Russian position and dropped weapons. This is how the heavy steps of the Ukrainian infantry, which so hard liberated another large field and two landings from the enemy, look like from inside the battle."

[_Os_]

interesting vid, the Scot whose battle dress include a mohawk haircut, kilt and sporran, and a bag full of grenades ...

[fishfoodie]

interesting vid, the Scot whose battle dress include a mohawk haircut, kilt and sporran, and a bag full of grenades ...

The, "Thin Red Line", are slightly differently equipped these days, even if they are still fighting over the same patch of dirt.

[Hellraiser]

That clip is from the madman who is nucking_futs_yuri and his ongoing exploits with the 59th Motorized Brigade. Full vid:

"A heavy assault together with the fighters of the 59th brigade: the Humvee in which I was riding with the fighters blew up, the tank that supported us blew up, Russian artillery covered us on a minefield, but the assault groups of the 59th brigade regrouped and went on the assault again, destroyed the resistance and shot down a Russian FPV drone and took one of the important Russian positions at the crossroads of landings that allows us to move forward. In the second part, we will show the captured Russian position and dropped weapons. This is how the heavy steps of the Ukrainian infantry, which so hard liberated another large field and two landings from the enemy, look like from inside the battle."

Yep, that's why I posted it. Third HMMWV he's had blown up under him.

[tabascoboy]

Apparently another one also downed just this morning

[tabascoboy]

[David in Gwent]

A complete waste of life, it's sickening.

Sometimes I wish the West hadn't of helped overthrow that democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014.

[inactionman]

A complete waste of life, it's sickening.

Sometimes I wish the West hadn't of helped overthrow that democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014.

I'm not sure 'we' in the West had a great deal to do with it.

The whole Maidan thing was precipitated by Yanukovych refusing to sign an agreement with the EU, despite it being approved by Ukrainian parliament, as he was a corrupt arsewipe in thrall and in the pay of Russian interests. The Ukrainian parliament kicked him out after he fled due to the protests. And Putin got annoyed that his corrupt bullying didn't get him anywhere, so he decided to invade.

[Slick]

A complete waste of life, it's sickening.

Sometimes I wish the West hadn't of helped overthrow that democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014.

I think this might be BINGO!

[David in Gwent]

I mean, it's not like the West has ever been involved in regime change and that regime change has only ever benefited the MIC. But yeah, this time might be different.

[inactionman]

I mean, it's not like the West has ever been involved in regime change and that regime change has only ever benefited the MIC. But yeah, this time might be different.

You're free to start another thread on those if you want, at least it'll help avoid misleading comparisons to the situation in Ukraine.

Maybe on the bored, if I may be so bold?

[David in Gwent]

I mean, it's not like the West has ever been involved in regime change and that regime change has only ever benefited the MIC. But yeah, this time might be different.

You're free to start another thread on those if you want, at least it'll help avoid misleading comparisons to the situation in Ukraine.

Maybe on the bored, if I may be so bold?

<thumb up>

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

A complete waste of life, it's sickening.

Sometimes I wish the West hadn't of helped overthrow that democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014.

And on to the ignore list you go, troll.

[yermum]

Low effort trolling should be banned.

[tabascoboy]

[_Os_]

This is one of the most insane things I've read in a long time.

I'm sure this is going to go down well with Russia's African friends, "Afro villages populated by white Africans only".

About 99% of white South Africans live in urban areas, the Second Boer War was the start of the end of the rural white population (hard to live on a farm when the British have burned the farm down), post-Second Boer War industrialisation then made rural poverty less appealing than the growing cities. But the Russians behind this scheme seem to think we're all farmers, all sharp shooters, all Boers. The sort of Russian that's in power in Russia desperately needs to move on from 150 to 200 years ago. They aren't even living in last century, they're living in the century before that. Meanwhile back in reality attracting 3000 whites that can farm, means 5%-10% of SA's commercial farmers leaving their profitable mechanised agri businesses on land they own, for whatever the fuck is going on in Russia.

It's amusing they think white South Africans overwhelmingly support Russia or something, and there would automatically be thousands of applicants. Near enough no one will be up for this.

[Flockwitt]

https://english.nv.ua/nation/us-approve ... 47151.html

[Uncle fester]

This is one of the most insane things I've read in a long time.

I'm sure this is going to go down well with Russia's African friends, "Afro villages populated by white Africans only".

About 99% of white South Africans live in urban areas, the Second Boer War was the start of the end of the rural white population (hard to live on a farm when the British have burned the farm down), post-Second Boer War industrialisation then made rural poverty less appealing than the growing cities. But the Russians behind this scheme seem to think we're all farmers, all sharp shooters, all Boers. The sort of Russian that's in power in Russia desperately needs to move on from 150 to 200 years ago. They aren't even living in last century, they're living in the century before that. Meanwhile back in reality attracting 3000 whites that can farm, means 5%-10% of SA's commercial farmers leaving their profitable mechanised agri businesses on land they own, for whatever the fuck is going on in Russia.

It's amusing they think white South Africans overwhelmingly support Russia or something, and there would automatically be thousands of applicants. Near enough no one will be up for this.

It's amazing how so much of right wing/culture war troll media pops up on Russian media. Venn diagram would be interesting.

[tabascoboy]

[petej]

A complete waste of life, it's sickening.

Sometimes I wish the West hadn't of helped overthrow that democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014.

And on to the ignore list you go, troll.

I've been waiting for DAC to enter this thread. Not surprised. From PR i think recalll DAC like Farage was among those who admired putin most out of all world leaders despite shooting down civilian planes, carpet bombing civilians in syria and using chemical weapons.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]