The Official, one and only, Men's IRB Rugby World Cup 2023 thread

[Paddington Bear]

Tonga for me represent the worst of PI rugby - thuggish, constant high shots, attack is dull and built around someone doing something magic, poor set piece and tendency to fold badly in the second half.
Fiji by contrast represent the best and it’s a real shame we have to face them in the quarters.

The Telegraph is taking the expansion to 24 teams seriously for next time, what would that look like? Adding in definitely Spain and USA, Canada you’d hope will be a little better, who’s the next team?

[Lobby]

Tonga for me represent the worst of PI rugby - thuggish, constant high shots, attack is dull and built around someone doing something magic, poor set piece and tendency to fold badly in the second half.
Fiji by contrast represent the best and it’s a real shame we have to face them in the quarters.

The Telegraph is taking the expansion to 24 teams seriously for next time, what would that look like? Adding in definitely Spain and USA, Canada you’d hope will be a little better, who’s the next team?

Next ones in line Hong Kong, Russia and Brazil.

[Fonz]

.
The Telegraph is taking the expansion to 24 teams seriously for next time, what would that look like? Adding in definitely Spain and USA, Canada you’d hope will be a little better, who’s the next team?

Canada is tough to read; in spite of their struggles, I’d argue their grassroots scene in British Columbia is still the strongest local scene in North America, and they are probably let down by their union’s mismanagement of the national side even more than we are…which theoretically is easier to fix than other issues, I would think. There’s still young talent coming through: not that MLR is some world class league, but 3 of the top 5 players taken in last year’s collegiate draft were born and bred Canadians, and another went at the 8th pick, which I think goes to show that the talent pool itself hasn’t necessarily dried up, at least by our standards. They’ve got a few youngsters in Europe too I think.

So, as for next up:

Spain - developing rapidly, building up a huge player base, will be on Georgia’s level (or better) sooner rather than later
US - we’re stagnant for reasons I’ve talked about elsewhere, but we’re still right there
Canada - see above
Russia - on the field, maybe not off it…you all may recall they acquitted themselves reasonably well in 2019 though

So that’s the next four, but then it gets interesting:

Netherlands - this is THE sleeper pick, as they’ve put big money and focus into grassroots, thinking long-term (unlike us and Canada) and it’s starting to pay dividends. Already have some quality players: a 20 year old lock of theirs, surname fittingly Holland, is about to be poached imminently by the Kiwis, and is already playing Super Rugby; loads of kids in the French system too. The national team’s results are getting more respectable by the year. They still don’t win much, but they’re firmly in Europe’s second tier now and closing the gap. If you remember goeagles from PR, he’s very bullish on them as the next big thing.

Brazil - mixed reports as to their talent development, but it’s hard to argue with the results. They’ve taken some scalps in recent years, us, Canada, an Argie XV, lost a close-ish game to Chile in the qualifiers and have ran them close some other times. They play some nice rugby, kinda what you’d expect a Brazilian team to be like. COVID killed the Americas Rugby Championship though so not a whole lot to go off from recently, apart from the odd friendly.

Zimbabwe - I know, no one wants another African side, but they’re involved in the South African domestic set-up and aren’t too far off Namibia based on the qualifier match I saw. Might benefit some from the eligibility rule change…if the emigrants want to return, of course. But there’s enough talent around that a “full-strength” Zimbo side wouldn’t be terribly shabby. And they’re producing some sort of talent apparently, as they beat us in the U20 World Trophy this year.

That’s about it without going another step down. Sadly, no one from Asia knocking at the door. HK squeezed past a poor Kenyan team in the repechage (the draw in the African qualifier fucked Zim as they played Namibia in the semis, so Kenya got sent over as runners-up), I wouldn’t worry about them. You’d love South Korea to get properly involved in the game (and some occasionally find their way into the Japanese side; their starting tighthead is a born and raised Korean), but they’ve got a long way to go as a team. Hong Kong took a red card in the first minute of their regional qualifier against SK, and they still won, albeit by a single point.

[laurent]

Tonga for me represent the worst of PI rugby - thuggish, constant high shots, attack is dull and built around someone doing something magic, poor set piece and tendency to fold badly in the second half.
Fiji by contrast represent the best and it’s a real shame we have to face them in the quarters.

The Telegraph is taking the expansion to 24 teams seriously for next time, what would that look like? Adding in definitely Spain and USA, Canada you’d hope will be a little better, who’s the next team?

Next ones in line Hong Kong, Russia and Brazil.

Russia is shit and excluded from civilized games.

[C69]

I think keeping up the momentum of a tournament like this is quite difficult when you have so few games during the week
I understand the reasoning behind it but not too sure if it's the best way forward to grow the game

[Gumboot]

I think keeping up the momentum of a tournament like this is quite difficult when you have so few games during the week
I understand the reasoning behind it but not too sure if it's the best way forward to grow the game

Yep, it's an avoidable hindrance, and it's a bit bloody late to put it down to growing pains.

[clydecloggie]

.
The Telegraph is taking the expansion to 24 teams seriously for next time, what would that look like? Adding in definitely Spain and USA, Canada you’d hope will be a little better, who’s the next team?

Netherlands - this is THE sleeper pick, as they’ve put big money and focus into grassroots, thinking long-term (unlike us and Canada) and it’s starting to pay dividends. Already have some quality players: a 20 year old lock of theirs, surname fittingly Holland, is about to be poached imminently by the Kiwis, and is already playing Super Rugby; loads of kids in the French system too. The national team’s results are getting more respectable by the year. They still don’t win much, but they’re firmly in Europe’s second tier now and closing the gap. If you remember goeagles from PR, he’s very bullish on them as the next big thing.

The Dutch U20s are almost at Spain U20 level, who qualified for the next U20 World Cup. At senior level, still some way to go althoguh they might move up one spot by virtue of Romania slowly sinking into the swamp (Romania's age-grade results have been terrible, with their U18 team relegating from the European Championship after defeat to the Czechs last year).

Dutch rugby is a small but very dedicated community, with the downside that age-grade squad selections sometimes rely more on who knows who and which dad has the money to sponsor the team than the actual rugby qualities of the offspring involved.

One major risk to Dutch progress is their best players not wanting to play for the Dutch team - Tim Visser, Zeno Kieft didn't play international rugby for the Dutch and it looks like the most gifted youngsters such as Fabian Holland are still taking the same route.

[Paddington Bear]

I suppose the Dutch also have the inbuilt advantage of all being inexplicably massive, and like their cricket team they can take some Afrikaners if they fancy

[clydecloggie]

I suppose the Dutch also have the inbuilt advantage of all being inexplicably massive, and like their cricket team they can take some Afrikaners if they fancy

Huge influx of Saffers here as well over the last 18 months. Hardly a week goes by without some random new Saffer guy turning up at the club with a pair of boots wanting to play.

Quality of the braais has improved out of sight, mind.

[tabascoboy]

Tonga for me represent the worst of PI rugby - thuggish, constant high shots, attack is dull and built around someone doing something magic, poor set piece and tendency to fold badly in the second half.
Fiji by contrast represent the best and it’s a real shame we have to face them in the quarters.

The Telegraph is taking the expansion to 24 teams seriously for next time, what would that look like? Adding in definitely Spain and USA, Canada you’d hope will be a little better, who’s the next team?

Next ones in line Hong Kong, Russia and Brazil.

Yep, they do like to go for a spread around the continents although Russia may well still be disqualified for 2027. Spain would more likely take the place of Romania based on current form - so Romania could still get the extra Europe slot.

Some sort of final global repechage would be required I guess, and unfortunately the tranche of teams likely to be contesting a place for Africa and Asia are pretty weak - notwithstanding Hong Kong being packed with non-Chinese from Oceania nations, and Korea possibly having more Japan based players unless they opt to qualify for Japan as a couple have for this RWC. As for Africa you currently have Kenya and Algeria ( almost entirely from French disapora), and possibly Senegal on the western side. Madagascar would be a magnificent wildcard as they are thoroughly entertaining but very weak up front and would sadly get marmelised by any other team.

[Uncle fester]

I wonder would they ever incorporate a B competition into the main world cup for sides that get eliminated in the group stages?

[sockwithaticket]

The only pity is that the Pumas have been so poor (so far anyway), which has made Pool D a bit duller than we’d hoped. I guess a couple of years back you’d have hoped to see Samoa and Tonga show up better, but they’re at the level you’d expect from recent performances (so far, anyway).

Thing is, looking at the draw, the Pumas will play Wales in the QFs (unless they shit the bed against Japan, which I mostly doubt), and though I think the Welsh are underrated, especially by the Welsh, there’s a reasonable chance the Pumas fall ass-backwards into yet another SF appearance.

Will say though, in terms of dullness, I do think the Pumas being off form makes their match against Japan somewhat more interesting!

As for Samoa and Tonga — and this is what annoys me about WR bending over backwards to help them out, evidenced by the change in the eligibility rules among other things — I just don’t see how two countries of 218k and 106k, respectively, can be expected to compete into the future as the sport continues to grow.

They’ve always relied heavily on the diaspora, but that’s going to dry up sooner or later as the generations add up, notwithstanding the unfairness of all that anyway for emerging countries that don’t have tons of people who emigrate to rugby superpowers. Can’t imagine there are too many Chilean, Georgian, or Portuguese immigrants in New Zealand. I guess what I’m try to say is their competitiveness is artificial anyway; Fiji is the only PI with a future.

Very much agreed. The only way to keep them going would be to disproportionately fund them and I'm sure the rest of tier 2 would have something to say about that notwithstanding the Islanders poor record on actually utilising the funds they're given.

[Sinkers]

I’ve done some work with equipment suppliers in the Uk -a few years ago now - hit shields, tackle bags etc:

- biggest growth market - Benelux
- don’t forget ze Germans

[Slick]

I’ve done some work with equipment suppliers in the Uk -a few years ago now - hit shields, tackle bags etc:

- biggest growth market - Benelux
- don’t forget ze Germans

Used to love playing German touring teams. They would come from clubs like Eintracht Frankfurt and have so much quality kit to swap after the match knowing they would get it replaced after a match. I remember getting a shirt, some shorts and a training top in exchange for a single sock

Also remember at 15/16 being on a school exchange in Hamburg and blundering into a 7's tournament and being picked up by the Scots Guards as they were short. They got me so hammered on Newcastle Brown Ale that evening that I didn't make it home to my family and got sent home in disgrace.

[Sandstorm]

Also remember at 15/16 being on a school exchange in Hamburg and blundering into a 7's tournament and being picked up by the Scots Guards as they were short. They got me so hammered on Newcastle Brown Ale that evening that I didn't make it home to my family and got sent home in disgrace.

That's what tours are all about!

[Torquemada 1420]

Most bizarre moment of this comp has to be Johan Retief's tournament being ended by being bitten by a spider on the chest. In his hotel room in Savoie.......... when he's Namibian

[Torquemada 1420]

I’ve done some work with equipment suppliers in the Uk -a few years ago now - hit shields, tackle bags etc:

- biggest growth market - Benelux
- don’t forget ze Germans

Preparing for another invasion maybe?

[Sinkers]

Also remember at 15/16 being on a school exchange in Hamburg and blundering into a 7's tournament and being picked up by the Scots Guards as they were short. They got me so hammered on Newcastle Brown Ale that evening that I didn't make it home to my family and got sent home in disgrace.

That's what tours are all about!

The only guardsmen I’ve ever been drinking with didn’t feel they’d had a proper night out unless they’d lost control of every bodily function by the end

[Stranger]

Just about to leave for the Uruguay Namibia match, I am looking forward to it.

[Sandstorm]

Just about to leave for the Uruguay Namibia match, I am looking forward to it.

Enjoy it mate.

[Paddington Bear]

Only one team in it atm, and not the one I expected

[Sandstorm]

Only one team in it atm, and not the one I expected

Nam lead 14-0 after just 12 mins

[tabascoboy]

That was an entertaining first half, Uruguay mistakes proving costly but back in touch at half-time. Namibia the better team for the opening quarter by far.

[Paddington Bear]

Superb finish. Uruguay will win from here you’d suspect

[tabascoboy]

Excellent footwork from the UY scrummie

[petej]

This is an enjoyable match to watch.

[Sandstorm]

Two Namibs in the bin and under review. Stupid and clumsy.

[Fonz]

Worth remembering WR couldn't bothered to reschedule Namibia's match against Canada in 2019, which very likely deprived them of their first win.

(Though I guess, for reasons not clear to me, they didn't reschedule any of those matches)

[tabascoboy]

Two Namibs in the bin and under review. Stupid and clumsy.

Cost them the game in the end, but they did play some good rugby and the goalkicker made all his chances count. Looked tired after 4 games in 18 days but not like a team who had shipped 96 points recently.
Did they say nearly 50 000 at this game?

[Fonz]

Two Namibs in the bin and under review. Stupid and clumsy.

Cost them the game in the end, but they did play some good rugby and the goalkicker made all his chances count. Looked tired after 4 games in 18 days but not like a team who had shipped 96 points recently.
Did they say nearly 50 000 at this game?

Wouldn't necessarily agree with that, they were taking on water badly when the first yellow got handed down. Twas just a matter of time. You get the impression too that perhaps Uruguay didn't take them too seriously in the early stages. When Uruguay actually got serious, it was over.

I also get the feeling that Namibia's fitness is somewhat lacking. See also the Dupont hit that occurred later on in that game. Easy to say it's just poor discipline but tired players lose technique.

[Torquemada 1420]

Two Namibs in the bin and under review. Stupid and clumsy.

Cost them the game in the end, but they did play some good rugby and the goalkicker made all his chances count. Looked tired after 4 games in 18 days but not like a team who had shipped 96 points recently.
Did they say nearly 50 000 at this game?

Wouldn't necessarily agree with that, they were taking on water badly when the first yellow got handed down. Twas just a matter of time. You get the impression too that perhaps Uruguay didn't take them too seriously in the early stages. When Uruguay actually got serious, it was over.

I also get the feeling that Namibia's fitness is somewhat lacking. See also the Dupont hit that occurred later on in that game. Easy to say it's just poor discipline but tired players lose technique.

I wonder if part of it was when Uruguay played Fra, they did so with complete freedom with zero expectation of winning but when the pressure came on tonight, they got all conservative and jittery.

[Tichtheid]

I guess this leaves New Zealand in third and not having to go through pre-qualification for the next World Cup is still in their own hands.

[_Os_]

I wonder if part of it was when Uruguay played Fra, they did so with complete freedom with zero expectation of winning but when the pressure came on tonight, they got all conservative and jittery.

Namibia play a traditional South African style game. It's about disrupting the opponent then imposing yourself on them. It means they struggle to be in the match against the biggest sides. But any side that isn't in the 6N/RC/PIs they're going to be fully in the match. Even against Italy, and it's quite a good Italy side, Namibia were in the match for abut 30 to 40 minutes in a similar way Uruguay were for a half.

I picked this one by the exact margin. Uruguay a score better, close enough for Nam to have a chance.

You were quite a bit out, which is unusual for you!

[Torquemada 1420]

I wonder if part of it was when Uruguay played Fra, they did so with complete freedom with zero expectation of winning but when the pressure came on tonight, they got all conservative and jittery.

Namibia play a traditional South African style game. It's about disrupting the opponent then imposing yourself on them. It means they struggle to be in the match against the biggest sides. But any side that isn't in the 6N/RC/PIs they're going to be fully in the match. Even against Italy, and it's quite a good Italy side, Namibia were in the match for abut 30 to 40 minutes in a similar way Uruguay were for a half.

I picked this one by the exact margin. Uruguay a score better, close enough for Nam to have a chance.

You were quite a bit out, which is unusual for you!

A mile out. Read the 4 Namib players lost to injury, ban and spiders and figured Uruguay would run riot.

[_Os_]

I wonder if part of it was when Uruguay played Fra, they did so with complete freedom with zero expectation of winning but when the pressure came on tonight, they got all conservative and jittery.

Namibia play a traditional South African style game. It's about disrupting the opponent then imposing yourself on them. It means they struggle to be in the match against the biggest sides. But any side that isn't in the 6N/RC/PIs they're going to be fully in the match. Even against Italy, and it's quite a good Italy side, Namibia were in the match for abut 30 to 40 minutes in a similar way Uruguay were for a half.

I picked this one by the exact margin. Uruguay a score better, close enough for Nam to have a chance.

You were quite a bit out, which is unusual for you!

A mile out. Read the 4 Namib players lost to injury, ban and spiders and figured Uruguay would run riot.

It was 5 players, Deysel/Johan Retief/Le Roux Malan/Wian Conradie/Divan Rossouw.

There's two ways of looking at it, like a bookie setting the handicap quantitatively or like a good punter more qualitatively (although a good punter will at least have some basic quantitative data like past scores).

Any bookie's handicap system will have a value attributed to each player, literally how many points they are worth per match, players that score more will be worth more, even Marx who imo is the world's best hooker isn't going to be worth more than a single point, but a good kicker is going to be worth minimum 3 points and probably closer to 5. Yes, it's really that basic. Over time any value the forwards add is captured by the backs scoring. There's a lot of holes in this as no doubt you can work out (obviously Marx is not worth 1 point in any qualitative analysis, at the lineout he's on 100% of ball won on his throw this RWC, but unlike all the other hookers on 100% most of his ball was not to the front ... cannot set a maul in the corner without winning your ball etc). Over time/in aggregate this quantitative method will win, but punters don't need to be in every market.

A qualitative method would have to try and weigh losing players with others starting (Swanepoel/Uanivi/Van Jaarsveld all didn't play against France but played this one). A quantitative system would pick up Swanepoel was starting, wouldn't surprise me if he was valued higher than most of the Nam pack combined in a proper handicap system. A qualitative analysis would've also rated him starting, but it would've also noticed Van Jaarsveld was starting (wouldn't surprise me if the system bookies use scores him 0), he's a really good hooker, was first choice in the strong Cheetahs Super Rugby teams years back and played Pro D2 for years.

My view was that Deysel was a huge loss, captain and was a strong 1st XV CC player (Leopards and Sharks) and squad player for the Sharks Super Rugby side for two seasons (not a 1st XV player). Any method of analysis would count losing Deysel. Le Roux Malan was an unlucky squad player, no method of analysis notices him not be selected (brutal given the injury, but that's what it is). Divan Rossouw would be noticed by a quantitative analysis (he's a wing/fullback normally so scores points, and played for the Bulls for seasons), a qualitative analysis less so (Mouton is a rookie but looks good, JC Greyling and Cliven Loubser are both average SA provincial level players, Greyling has played CC premier and Loubser has played CC U20, and obviously they've all played for Nam in the CC 1st div), losing Rossouw a downgrade but not much of one. Losing both Johan Retief (the player bitten by a spider) an average CC player (plays for the Griquas) and Wian Conradie (played Varsity Cup in SA, then in the UK and is now in the US), was a big loss that definitely wouldn't show up in a quantitative analysis, but would if you're looking at the quality of the side, it forced Uanivi (the best lock in their squad) onto the blindside.

For me pre-RWC Nam had a real chance in this one. But the injuries in the backrow shifted that a lot. Not long ago Nam had these players in the backrow Renaldo Bothma/Jacques Burger/Tinus du Plessis/Rohan Kitshoff, as well as Wian Conradie/PJ Van Lill who were in this squad. Burger is somewhere in the conversation for best backrow of the pro era, probably top 100, Bothma and Kitshoff were both strong CC players (both on 50+ caps) and didn't look out of place in Super Rugby. The backrow that played this one was some way off that quality.

The best side Nam selected was the first against Italy. The side against Uruguay was similar strength, other than the backrow which made it a lot weaker.

Anyway, won money on this one, bookies handicap of Uruguay -17 looked wrong so went with Nam +17.

Japan v Samoa is a tough pick, and hard because I can't go as deep as I can with Nam (didn't watch Super Rugby, so didn't watch the side a lot of Samoan players play in and don't watch Japanese club rugby). Bookies have the handicap at Samoa -3.5, the points margin market has Samoa at margins under 10 points as the favourite. There's not much to separate their RWC performances. Picking either feels like a loser.

The entire round is about calling the Japan v Samoa match.

[PCPhil]

I guess this leaves New Zealand in third and not having to go through pre-qualification for the next World Cup is still in their own hands.

Good for them.

[Torquemada 1420]

Namibia play a traditional South African style game. It's about disrupting the opponent then imposing yourself on them. It means they struggle to be in the match against the biggest sides. But any side that isn't in the 6N/RC/PIs they're going to be fully in the match. Even against Italy, and it's quite a good Italy side, Namibia were in the match for abut 30 to 40 minutes in a similar way Uruguay were for a half.

I picked this one by the exact margin. Uruguay a score better, close enough for Nam to have a chance.

You were quite a bit out, which is unusual for you!

A mile out. Read the 4 Namib players lost to injury, ban and spiders and figured Uruguay would run riot.

It was 5 players, Deysel/Johan Retief/Le Roux Malan/Wian Conradie/Divan Rossouw.

There's two ways of looking at it, like a bookie setting the handicap quantitatively or like a good punter more qualitatively (although a good punter will at least have some basic quantitative data like past scores).

Any bookie's handicap system will have a value attributed to each player, literally how many points they are worth per match, players that score more will be worth more, even Marx who imo is the world's best hooker isn't going to be worth more than a single point, but a good kicker is going to be worth minimum 3 points and probably closer to 5. Yes, it's really that basic. Over time any value the forwards add is captured by the backs scoring. There's a lot of holes in this as no doubt you can work out (obviously Marx is not worth 1 point in any qualitative analysis, at the lineout he's on 100% of ball won on his throw this RWC, but unlike all the other hookers on 100% most of his ball was not to the front ... cannot set a maul in the corner without winning your ball etc). Over time/in aggregate this quantitative method will win, but punters don't need to be in every market.

A qualitative method would have to try and weigh losing players with others starting (Swanepoel/Uanivi/Van Jaarsveld all didn't play against France but played this one). A quantitative system would pick up Swanepoel was starting, wouldn't surprise me if he was valued higher than most of the Nam pack combined in a proper handicap system. A qualitative analysis would've also rated him starting, but it would've also noticed Van Jaarsveld was starting (wouldn't surprise me if the system bookies use scores him 0), he's a really good hooker, was first choice in the strong Cheetahs Super Rugby teams years back and played Pro D2 for years.

My view was that Deysel was a huge loss, captain and was a strong 1st XV CC player (Leopards and Sharks) and squad player for the Sharks Super Rugby side for two seasons (not a 1st XV player). Any method of analysis would count losing Deysel. Le Roux Malan was an unlucky squad player, no method of analysis notices him not be selected (brutal given the injury, but that's what it is). Divan Rossouw would be noticed by a quantitative analysis (he's a wing/fullback normally so scores points, and played for the Bulls for seasons), a qualitative analysis less so (Mouton is a rookie but looks good, JC Greyling and Cliven Loubser are both average SA provincial level players, Greyling has played CC premier and Loubser has played CC U20, and obviously they've all played for Nam in the CC 1st div), losing Rossouw a downgrade but not much of one. Losing both Johan Retief (the player bitten by a spider) an average CC player (plays for the Griquas) and Wian Conradie (played Varsity Cup in SA, then in the UK and is now in the US), was a big loss that definitely wouldn't show up in a quantitative analysis, but would if you're looking at the quality of the side, it forced Uanivi (the best lock in their squad) onto the blindside.

For me pre-RWC Nam had a real chance in this one. But the injuries in the backrow shifted that a lot. Not long ago Nam had these players in the backrow Renaldo Bothma/Jacques Burger/Tinus du Plessis/Rohan Kitshoff, as well as Wian Conradie/PJ Van Lill who were in this squad. Burger is somewhere in the conversation for best backrow of the pro era, probably top 100, Bothma and Kitshoff were both strong CC players (both on 50+ caps) and didn't look out of place in Super Rugby. The backrow that played this one was some way off that quality.

The best side Nam selected was the first against Italy. The side against Uruguay was similar strength, other than the backrow which made it a lot weaker.

Anyway, won money on this one, bookies handicap of Uruguay -17 looked wrong so went with Nam +17.

Japan v Samoa is a tough pick, and hard because I can't go as deep as I can with Nam (didn't watch Super Rugby, so didn't watch the side a lot of Samoan players play in and don't watch Japanese club rugby). Bookies have the handicap at Samoa -3.5, the points margin market has Samoa at margins under 10 points as the favourite. There's not much to separate their RWC performances. Picking either feels like a loser.

The entire round is about calling the Japan v Samoa match.

Bit in bold sums it up. I was way off beam simply because I didn't know enough (anything of use) about Namibia and only a bit about Uruguay. I rely upon what I know and that necessitates watching games (or the players at least). I cannot finish outside top 2 in this season's NPC. In a very competitive comp. like that, you can't simply go with favourites in the manner of the RWC (e.g. England v Chile) and rely upon the odd tight call falling your way. Nearly every game is a potential Japan v Samoa. I stay away from comps that are turkey shoots like 6N and 3N/TRC.

Bookies get it wrong way more often in rugby because they simply rely upon form data at a team level. There is no factoring for player selection, position, individual form, injury, player unit effectiveness (e.g. backrow, half backs) weather or even the referee (there: I gave away my system ); all of which can be result determinants in rugby in a manner unlike any other team sport. Bookies are right on Japan v Samoa though. Coin toss.

[sockwithaticket]

Samoa beat Japan by two points in the Pacific Nations Cup. Haven't seen a lot of evidence that the eligbility switchers have made much difference to them, so would predict a one score game again. Probably in their favour.

[Sandstorm]

Samoa are chasing hard to get more cards than filthy Namibia this RWC. I predict Japan will beat 13/14 man Samoa by 12 points.

[Simian]

Samoa beat Japan by two points in the Pacific Nations Cup. Haven't seen a lot of evidence that the eligbility switchers have made much difference to them, so would predict a one score game again. Probably in their favour.

Leitch’s relatively early red in that game had a big impact tho.