Still going, averaging 30,000 cases a day and 750 deaths. 136,000 deaths so far. Rates of death reported fairly flat since May at that level. So no sign of it easing off. They have done fewer tests than the UK whilst having three times the population.Northern Lights wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:28 am What is going on with Brazil these days? Bolsonaro just basically ignored it and the deaths piled up, i believe some of the state goveners tried to do something but Bolsonaro over ruled them or something. Basically are they even remotely close to this thing burning out or is it still rampaging like mad?
In one state, Maranhao, seroprevalence May be 35-40%. They have reported around 3500 deaths, so double that to get to seroprevalence of the level required for herd immunity. But there’s evidence, by looking at excess death rates, that there is a massive under reporting Of deaths of up to 80%in this state, which would suggest they’re heading for 35,000 deaths in a population of 6.8 million. That’s be an IFR of around 0.8% which is inline with studies. Bear in mind that their demographics are younger, so our IFR is likely to be higher. A similar incidence in the UK would likely get up towards 400,000 deaths.