So ... the polling.
Regular readers will know I've been saying for awhile "I don't know why the media isn't looking at all the polls, and it's literally all the polls, and reporting the base case scenario of a Tory wipe out, instead they keep saying everything will magically tighten up". The Telegraph puts what every poll since Truss has been saying on its frontpage, and now Westminster journos are running around with their hair on fire.
Next they're going to work out something else I've been saying on this thread. The Tories need to stop mentioning immigration at all. Being "tough on immigration" isn't the huge win for them they think it is. Like Brexit it has fallen prey to the Tory radical/far right, which as is their want now just keeps demanding more impossible things regardless of if it's workable/will improve anything/is a good idea. Like Brexit there's also the sense the Tory radical/far right will never be happy whatever the immigration situation is, it's something they're going to keep wallowing in until it becomes so painful they refuse to talk about it. Among a small selection of Tory aligned media people (the most prominent being Goodwin and Douglas Murray) the line is now basically "foreign born people are stealing the houses and jobs", it is pointed out to them a foreign born person can be a British citizen/national or have permanent residency, but they never seem to care. It's very obvious these people are becoming more radical on the subject and aren't going to give up even if Rwanda happens. There's now a mountain of stuff done largely to appease anti-immigrant sentiment and it's never enough, quit the SM, quit the entire EU, Australian points based immigration system, etc. None of it is unsubstantial, always the Tory radical/far right say everything is still shit.
They have generated a situation where they obsessively focus on something they view as a existential crisis, yet any solution they come up is never sufficient for them and they always demand more. The existential crisis they have imagined never recedes let alone ends. Their poll numbers are never going up if they keep a debate going which has this structure to it, I have no clue what they hope to gain from it. If the Tories want their poll numbers up they need a solid year of no talking about immigration from anyone on their side in any capacity.
The poll numbers are very bad for the Tories. For those that don't know, 40% of the vote in a constituency is a lock in once the other 60% is divided up, 35% means the seat is up in the air and contestable by the second place, a 10% gap between first and second place also means the seat could go either way.
The detail of the YouGov MRP is far worse for the Tories than the topline result.
There are no seats where they score more than 40% of the vote. In only 74 do they score more than 35%.
There are fewer than 40 seats where they are 10pts ahead of the 2nd placed party.
There are just 12 seats where the Tory vote share outweights the combined Labour and LD vote share. And only two if you include the Greens as well.
Gives an indication as to the damage heavy tactical voting could do.
A couple of examples. The MRP has Stratford-upon-Avon (Zahawi's seat) as:
34% Con
31% LD
19% Lab
You've got to assume Labour are going to put zero effort into that seat and LDs will bombard with "only we can win here" leaflets.
Or Spelthorne which is Kwasi Kwarteng's seat:
34% Con
29% Lab
19% LD
Same pattern the other way round (and this is not a seat anywhere near Labour's target list).
A lot of the remaining "Tory-held" seats look something like this.
On top of which YouGov have allocated don't knows to the party whose supporters the person most looks like, which helps the Tories. So this already assumes undecideds will come back to them.
It of coure true that things could improve for the Tories. But as this MRP makes clear it is also true there are perilously close to going below 100 seats if things continue to get worse for them.
Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to:
Con 69 (-100 on MRP)
Lab 463 (+78)
LD 70 (+22)
Nat 28
Grn 1
If you increase the tactical voting rate to 50% of progressive voters - probably a bit high - then we really are talking Canada 93-level stuff.
Con 24 (-145 on MRP)
Lab 502 (+117)
LD 76 (+28)
Nat 28
Grn 1
Even if you add
@LukeTryl
's Reform absence numbers on top of one-third of progressives tactically voting, it's not getting much better for the Tories:
Con 114
Lab 426
LD 63
Nat 28
Grn 1
Probably a more plausible result.
Some feel a third is too high, so let's lower it to a quarter, while keeping Reform adjustments.
Con 138
Lab 409
LD 55
Nat 28
Grn 1
Even if we up the Reform -> Con numbers to 50%, while keeping 25% cross-progressive tactical voting, it's still not much better than the original MRP:
Con 175 (+6)
Lab 378 (-7)
LD 49 (+1)
Nat 28
Oth 1
This is based on a 13.5-point Labour lead (as it estimates where don't knows will go).
However, if we adjust to the latest regular YouGov poll (23-point lead), these would be the results:
LAB: 503
CON: 57 (!)
LDM: 46
Almost electoral oblivion if the polls don't move.
Add in some extra tactical voting (25% of Lib Dems and Greens opting for Labour in close seats) and the Conservatives would be reduced to just SIX (6) seats.
LAB: 503
CON: 57 (!)
LDM: 46
