Stop voting for fucking Tories

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Paddington Bear
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weegie01 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:59 am
Paddington Bear wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:50 am Anyone seen Mr Bates vs the Post Office? I followed some of the court case but fuck me it makes your blood boil
Having worked in some large corporates, it is remarkable the degree to which people can become institutionalised. In this case I would bet good money that even some of the more egregious issues were down to Post office employees being actually incapable of believing the Post Office got it wrong, and for many who did the paramount issue would be protecting the Post Office.

But yes, it was good.
Yes, ‘protecting the brand’ became a mantra to such an extent they even used it in court! Vennells has a marketing background and I suppose that coloured her thinking on what the real priorities were. Institutionalised is one aspect, the amount of people in any organisation who are purely process brained, ‘computer says no’ is astonishing, even in jobs that allegedly are highly skilled and advertise themselves as requiring critical thinking.

Anyway, it’s always nice to be reminded Vennells was a CofE minister, good to know she likely has a very genuine belief in hell.
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
petej
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Paddington Bear wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:28 am
weegie01 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:59 am
Paddington Bear wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:50 am Anyone seen Mr Bates vs the Post Office? I followed some of the court case but fuck me it makes your blood boil
Having worked in some large corporates, it is remarkable the degree to which people can become institutionalised. In this case I would bet good money that even some of the more egregious issues were down to Post office employees being actually incapable of believing the Post Office got it wrong, and for many who did the paramount issue would be protecting the Post Office.

But yes, it was good.
Yes, ‘protecting the brand’ became a mantra to such an extent they even used it in court! Vennells has a marketing background and I suppose that coloured her thinking on what the real priorities were. Institutionalised is one aspect, the amount of people in any organisation who are purely process brained, ‘computer says no’ is astonishing, even in jobs that allegedly are highly skilled and advertise themselves as requiring critical thinking.

Anyway, it’s always nice to be reminded Vennells was a CofE minister, good to know she likely has a very genuine belief in hell.
A large companies management that won't acknowledge an issue will inhibit the attempts by staff to fix it. Staff that attempt to do so will likely be ignored, miss out on promotions for not toeing the line then get fed up and leave. Not a snowballs chance hell members of staff didn't try tell management of the issues surrounding this.
Biffer
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petej wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:21 pm
Paddington Bear wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:28 am
weegie01 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:59 am

Having worked in some large corporates, it is remarkable the degree to which people can become institutionalised. In this case I would bet good money that even some of the more egregious issues were down to Post office employees being actually incapable of believing the Post Office got it wrong, and for many who did the paramount issue would be protecting the Post Office.

But yes, it was good.
Yes, ‘protecting the brand’ became a mantra to such an extent they even used it in court! Vennells has a marketing background and I suppose that coloured her thinking on what the real priorities were. Institutionalised is one aspect, the amount of people in any organisation who are purely process brained, ‘computer says no’ is astonishing, even in jobs that allegedly are highly skilled and advertise themselves as requiring critical thinking.

Anyway, it’s always nice to be reminded Vennells was a CofE minister, good to know she likely has a very genuine belief in hell.
A large companies management that won't acknowledge an issue will inhibit the attempts by staff to fix it. Staff that attempt to do so will likely be ignored, miss out on promotions for not toeing the line then get fed up and leave. Not a snowballs chance hell members of staff didn't try tell management of the issues surrounding this.
In health and safety now, the individual responsible for it at senior level in a company is personally liable to prosecution as well as the company. That has rather focussed minds in some organisations. A similar responsibility for things like fraud would be beneficial.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Hal Jordan
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sockwithaticket wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:54 pm
fishfoodie wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:32 pm
Insane_Homer wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:19 pm
A Tory quitting because they can't square the Leaderships actions with their own conscience; & they might not be lying :shock:

Is this a sign of the coming apocalypse ?
Yeah, in fairness to him he's been on the right side of this issue for a while. Done a lot of cross-party work to create the net zero stuff that was signed into law under May and continued to do so.

Says a lot that Caroline Lucas spoke up in praise of him
Caroline Lucas, Green MP for Brighton Pavilion, said: “Memo to Rishi Sunak – this is what principled politics looks like. It has been a real pleasure working with Chris Skidmore on climate and he’ll be much missed. It’s a huge indictment of a government that is maxing out fossil fuels.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... cence-plan
It's also the fact that this puts it onto the statute book that there must be an annual round of licensing for fossil fuels. Now, this is easily undone (watch Starmer do fuck all) but the tone deaf nature of the annual beanfeast and obvious pandering to donors is ridiculous.

Still, loot the public purse and recycle it into Party donations and lovely non-exec appointments.
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Uncle fester
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Hal Jordan
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"Leading barrister" = Probably a certain Junior Counsel and Tory Councillor, whose specialism in commercial advice makes him eminently qualified as the go to authority on all legal matters for the likes of GB News. Famous for blocking anyone who either points this out or disagrees with him, including a ton of other barristers.
Biffer
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Hal Jordan wrote: Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:39 pm "Leading barrister" = Probably a certain Junior Counsel and Tory Councillor, whose specialism in commercial advice makes him eminently qualified as the go to authority on all legal matters for the likes of GB News. Famous for blocking anyone who either points this out or disagrees with him, including a ton of other barristers.
Yeah, it's that guy.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
dpedin
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Hyslop getting angry with Trump loving Berry on Peston on behalf of the whole country!
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SaintK
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dpedin wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:05 am

Hyslop getting angry with Trump loving Berry on Peston on behalf of the whole country!
Jake Berry is a nasty piece of shit.
Hislop has been investigating the Horizon scandal for over 15 years, you'd have thought Berry would have known that?
Jess Phillips enjoying the spat!!!
sockwithaticket
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I've never watched Peston before, is he usually flapping his head like a pez dispenser instead of making an attempt to moderate the panel?

Berry has thus far escaped my notice, but seems yet another whose only interest is to take credit and displace blame. What a surprise. The Tories really are a part of political pygmies these days.
I like neeps
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Sadiq Khan has decided to launch a report on the negative impact on Brexit. Would have loved to see Starmer's reaction to that
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tabascoboy
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Two by-elections almost certainly set for February 15th, both Tory held with substantial majority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67943546
petej
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sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:16 am I've never watched Peston before, is he usually flapping his head like a pez dispenser instead of making an attempt to moderate the panel?

Berry has thus far escaped my notice, but seems yet another whose only interest is to take credit and displace blame. What a surprise. The Tories really are a part of political pygmies these days.
Peston is a gormless patsy.
I like neeps wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:44 am Sadiq Khan has decided to launch a report on the negative impact on Brexit. Would have loved to see Starmer's reaction to that
Fully agrees with it I expect. You can get the same useful output without the negative hitting Starmer at a national level and khan's electorate mostly dislike brexit so no damage there.
Biffer
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dpedin wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:05 am

Hyslop getting angry with Trump loving Berry on Peston on behalf of the whole country!
Quite like how Jess Phillips is just sitting there letting him look like an arsehole without any need to add anything. Just what Labour needs to do atm, let them demonstrate just how fucked up the entire tory party is.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Insane_Homer
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“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
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petej wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:39 pm
sockwithaticket wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:16 am I've never watched Peston before, is he usually flapping his head like a pez dispenser instead of making an attempt to moderate the panel?

Berry has thus far escaped my notice, but seems yet another whose only interest is to take credit and displace blame. What a surprise. The Tories really are a part of political pygmies these days.
Peston is a gormless patsy.
I like neeps wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:44 am Sadiq Khan has decided to launch a report on the negative impact on Brexit. Would have loved to see Starmer's reaction to that
Fully agrees with it I expect. You can get the same useful output without the negative hitting Starmer at a national level and khan's electorate mostly dislike brexit so no damage there.
Really? The output is attack lines for Tories and the papers that Starmer and co have (wisely politically) been running away from.
dpedin
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Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:42 pm
dpedin wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2024 10:05 am

Hyslop getting angry with Trump loving Berry on Peston on behalf of the whole country!
Quite like how Jess Phillips is just sitting there letting him look like an arsehole without any need to add anything. Just what Labour needs to do atm, let them demonstrate just how fucked up the entire tory party is.
If the opposition is in a hole then don't take away their spade ... just stand back and let them dig deeper! This is essentially Starter's GE strategy, and quite right too.
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Sandstorm
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Could Peston sit his guests any further apart?? No wonder they have to shout at each other.
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tabascoboy
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SaintK
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tabascoboy wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:59 pm
:lol: :lol: :crazy: :crazy:
Thick as mince!
dpedin
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Two good reasons for not voting Tory - we are poorer and we are dying earlier - great achievements by the tory Gov! Bastards ... and people vote for them!!!



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Insane_Homer
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faeces.jpg
faeces.jpg (139.98 KiB) Viewed 2325 times
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
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SaintK
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Insane_Homer wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:20 am faeces.jpg
WTF????
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Sandstorm
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SaintK wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:36 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:20 am faeces.jpg
WTF????
Typo. Faces nightclub…. :grin:
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Hal Jordan
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I see Braveman was out on a pro-Israel demonstration, I thought she wasn't in favour of Public Displays Of Appreciation?
Rhubarb & Custard
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Was she giving those policing the event her mean faeces?
shaggy
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Sandstorm wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:58 pm
SaintK wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:36 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:20 am faeces.jpg
WTF????
Typo. Faces nightclub…. :grin:
Poster is not known for true and accurate content. Probably a fake, like a lot of his other posts turns out to be.
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SaintK
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Sandstorm wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:58 pm
SaintK wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:36 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:20 am faeces.jpg
WTF????
Typo. Faces nightclub…. :grin:
:lol: :lol:
Quite apt. She comes over as a piece of shit alright
_Os_
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So ... the polling.

Regular readers will know I've been saying for awhile "I don't know why the media isn't looking at all the polls, and it's literally all the polls, and reporting the base case scenario of a Tory wipe out, instead they keep saying everything will magically tighten up". The Telegraph puts what every poll since Truss has been saying on its frontpage, and now Westminster journos are running around with their hair on fire.

Next they're going to work out something else I've been saying on this thread. The Tories need to stop mentioning immigration at all. Being "tough on immigration" isn't the huge win for them they think it is. Like Brexit it has fallen prey to the Tory radical/far right, which as is their want now just keeps demanding more impossible things regardless of if it's workable/will improve anything/is a good idea. Like Brexit there's also the sense the Tory radical/far right will never be happy whatever the immigration situation is, it's something they're going to keep wallowing in until it becomes so painful they refuse to talk about it. Among a small selection of Tory aligned media people (the most prominent being Goodwin and Douglas Murray) the line is now basically "foreign born people are stealing the houses and jobs", it is pointed out to them a foreign born person can be a British citizen/national or have permanent residency, but they never seem to care. It's very obvious these people are becoming more radical on the subject and aren't going to give up even if Rwanda happens. There's now a mountain of stuff done largely to appease anti-immigrant sentiment and it's never enough, quit the SM, quit the entire EU, Australian points based immigration system, etc. None of it is unsubstantial, always the Tory radical/far right say everything is still shit.

They have generated a situation where they obsessively focus on something they view as a existential crisis, yet any solution they come up is never sufficient for them and they always demand more. The existential crisis they have imagined never recedes let alone ends. Their poll numbers are never going up if they keep a debate going which has this structure to it, I have no clue what they hope to gain from it. If the Tories want their poll numbers up they need a solid year of no talking about immigration from anyone on their side in any capacity.

The poll numbers are very bad for the Tories. For those that don't know, 40% of the vote in a constituency is a lock in once the other 60% is divided up, 35% means the seat is up in the air and contestable by the second place, a 10% gap between first and second place also means the seat could go either way.


The detail of the YouGov MRP is far worse for the Tories than the topline result.
There are no seats where they score more than 40% of the vote. In only 74 do they score more than 35%.
There are fewer than 40 seats where they are 10pts ahead of the 2nd placed party.
There are just 12 seats where the Tory vote share outweights the combined Labour and LD vote share. And only two if you include the Greens as well.
Gives an indication as to the damage heavy tactical voting could do.

A couple of examples. The MRP has Stratford-upon-Avon (Zahawi's seat) as:
34% Con
31% LD
19% Lab
You've got to assume Labour are going to put zero effort into that seat and LDs will bombard with "only we can win here" leaflets.

Or Spelthorne which is Kwasi Kwarteng's seat:
34% Con
29% Lab
19% LD
Same pattern the other way round (and this is not a seat anywhere near Labour's target list).

A lot of the remaining "Tory-held" seats look something like this.
On top of which YouGov have allocated don't knows to the party whose supporters the person most looks like, which helps the Tories. So this already assumes undecideds will come back to them.
It of coure true that things could improve for the Tories. But as this MRP makes clear it is also true there are perilously close to going below 100 seats if things continue to get worse for them.

Going through the YouGov MRP data to add some tactical squeezing. If just one third of Lab-LD-Grn voters in England and Wales vote tactically for the strongest party, the result changes to:
Con 69 (-100 on MRP)
Lab 463 (+78)
LD 70 (+22)
Nat 28
Grn 1

If you increase the tactical voting rate to 50% of progressive voters - probably a bit high - then we really are talking Canada 93-level stuff.
Con 24 (-145 on MRP)
Lab 502 (+117)
LD 76 (+28)
Nat 28
Grn 1

Even if you add
@LukeTryl
's Reform absence numbers on top of one-third of progressives tactically voting, it's not getting much better for the Tories:
Con 114
Lab 426
LD 63
Nat 28
Grn 1
Probably a more plausible result.

Some feel a third is too high, so let's lower it to a quarter, while keeping Reform adjustments.
Con 138
Lab 409
LD 55
Nat 28
Grn 1

Even if we up the Reform -> Con numbers to 50%, while keeping 25% cross-progressive tactical voting, it's still not much better than the original MRP:
Con 175 (+6)
Lab 378 (-7)
LD 49 (+1)
Nat 28
Oth 1

This is based on a 13.5-point Labour lead (as it estimates where don't knows will go).
However, if we adjust to the latest regular YouGov poll (23-point lead), these would be the results:
🔴 LAB: 503
🔵 CON: 57 (!)
🟠 LDM: 46
Almost electoral oblivion if the polls don't move.

Add in some extra tactical voting (25% of Lib Dems and Greens opting for Labour in close seats) and the Conservatives would be reduced to just SIX (6) seats.
_Os_
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Looking at those polling numbers and the analysis out there, if an election was held tomorrow:

Poor Tory performance: 50-ish seats. (less than this is extremely unlikely)
Average Tory performance: 130 seats
Good Tory performance: 160-ish seats
Excellent Tory performance: 170 to 210 seats (more than this seems extremely unlikely)

As things stand all of those outcomes are possible, there's a 160 seat range from 50-ish seats to 210-ish seats. The Tories getting something like 200 seats or crashing to 60 seats, both look about as likely right now. Par result looks like about 150.


... Obviously the solution is to bang on and on about Rwanda and "foreign born people", focusing obsessively on an issue the Tories have spent more time and energy on than any other single topic over the past decade and half (everything from the hostile environment when May was Home Secretary onwards), that dictated the entire direction of Brexit (cannot be in the SM because of free movement etc), when all of this track record is a total failure. Best to always talk about it because of Farage, even though the Tories are losing more voters to their left than their right.
Rhubarb & Custard
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There is no way they've spent more time and energy on migration than Europe/Brexit, it's not even close.
_Os_
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Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:30 pm There is no way they've spent more time and energy on migration than Europe/Brexit, it's not even close.
But pre-vote immigration dictated the debate and was used by Vote Leave ("Turkey will join the EU and flood the UK" etc), it was the main reason people gave for voting leave along with sovereignty (Ashcroft exit polling), and when people were quizzed about sovereignty that often became immigration too (Q: "But what does take back control actually mean? Sovereignty over what?" A: "immigration!"). Then May decided the key issue in Brexit was not being part of free movement because of immigration, which took the UK out of the SM (it's not clear the Tories understood that redline would do that when they made it), which then meant years of the Tories trying to negotiate themselves into the SM without free movement, and failing. Johnson then took a shit deal just to get that stage of Brexit done, neglecting any deal on asylum seekers, which setup the small boats issue when his Brexit deal was implemented ...

Immigration has been the constant ongoing obsession of this era of Tory rule. It's behind a lot of the disasters, including Brexit.

If the Tories spend this final year focusing on immigration, it's the same as focusing on their own biggest failure in government. If this is the topic they focus on then they will hole themselves below the waterline, their track record is objectively terrible on immigration. But they're the government so get to set a lot of the debate, so far this is their choice.

How do they think voters will respond: "my life is worse than it was, but at least the Tories keep doing stuff on immigration they later say is shit and a failure"??? :wtf
Biffer
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Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:30 pm There is no way they've spent more time and energy on migration than Europe/Brexit, it's not even close.
You can’t genuinely think those two aren’t closely associated. And in the last few years Brexit and Europe has had a lot less focus than the paranoia over small boats.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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fishfoodie
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Biffer wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:32 am
Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:30 pm There is no way they've spent more time and energy on migration than Europe/Brexit, it's not even close.
You can’t genuinely think those two aren’t closely associated. And in the last few years Brexit and Europe has had a lot less focus than the paranoia over small boats.
Yes because the focus is generated by the Tory owned MSM, which doesn't want to discuss what a clusterfuck Brexit is; so it's; "Oh look, a Squirrel !"
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tabascoboy
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Well well...
UNHCR finds new UK-Rwanda treaty and Safety of Rwanda Bill are incompatible with international refugee law

Summary
Important updated legal analysis finds failings of original migration partnership have not been adequately addressed

...
IV – Conclusion

28. UNHCR has reviewed the updated UK-Rwanda scheme in light of the principles and standards set out in its 2022 analysis and summarised in Part I above. It maintains its position that the arrangement, as now articulated in the UK-Rwanda Partnership Treaty and accompanying legislative scheme [23] does not meet the required standards relating to the legality and appropriateness of the transfer of asylum seekers and is not compatible with international refugee law.
https://www.ein.org.uk/news/unhcr-finds ... al-refugee
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SaintK
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What we all know!

‘Free money!’ Avanti West Coast bosses caught joking about UK government handouts
Firm regrets comments made in internal presentation slides, including managers calling performance payments ‘too good to be true’
Avanti West Coast managers joked about receiving “free money” from government and performance-related payments being “too good to be true” in an internal presentation at the notoriously unreliable train operator, it has emerged.

One slide, entitled “Roll up, roll-up get your free money here!” described how the Treasury and Department for Transport supported the firm with taxpayers’ money, provided third-party suppliers and inspections, and then paid Avanti fees on top.
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fishfoodie
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SaintK wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:24 pm What we all know!

‘Free money!’ Avanti West Coast bosses caught joking about UK government handouts
Firm regrets comments made in internal presentation slides, including managers calling performance payments ‘too good to be true’
Avanti West Coast managers joked about receiving “free money” from government and performance-related payments being “too good to be true” in an internal presentation at the notoriously unreliable train operator, it has emerged.

One slide, entitled “Roll up, roll-up get your free money here!” described how the Treasury and Department for Transport supported the firm with taxpayers’ money, provided third-party suppliers and inspections, and then paid Avanti fees on top.
Bit of a Ratner moment there.

I suppose there is the minutest of chances that whoever this weeks Transport Minister is, they might seize the chance to get a bit of positive publicity by turning off the tap to these leeches, & make the regulator do their fucking job for a change.
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SaintK
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..........and the civil war continues!!!
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tabascoboy
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SaintK wrote: Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:05 pm ..........and the civil war continues!!!
No doubt positioning themselves to vote against the Rwanda bill in favour of "toughening it up" and they would have probably been removed had they done so before resigning. They want to be seen as the "Tory Alternative" - for which read even more rabidly right wing populist - by merging with Reform UK. The shitcart trundles ever towards the cliff edge...

also...
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Hal Jordan
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It's going to be total chaos and uproar without the firm guiding hands of the deputy chairmen.
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