tc27 wrote: Sun Jan 21, 2024 1:35 pm
Leaving the SM was objectively bad for trade but he doesn't really provide evidence to back his claim making it the cuplrit for PT. I recall the UK/EU TCA has a zero tariff rate for steel..happy to be corrected. The SM is impactul on services and manufactured products rather than basic industrial commodities.
On the other hand its objectively true electricity for industry and househoulds is much more expensive in the UK due to the decision to subsidise renewables by having a price floor linked to expensive imported natural gas.
Reasonably relatively greater expensive production costs are far more likely to be the cause than than 0% tariffs on steel.
As an aside I think there is an overwhelming national interest in keeping steel production capability so a governent backed company should be considered.
Good point on the electricity price. My assumption was that green policies were being blamed on the basis of coal/coke being used to make steel. Tata claim they're going to build an electric arc furnace to recycle scrap steel (axing your workforce only to rehire half of them in half a decade seems an odd way to do this, have to wonder if it'll ever happen). I'm guessing that planned furnace will consume less electricity than a coal fired blast furnace? It's outside any knowledge I have.
The problem with the TCA compared to the SM, is the type of large investment which can only come from a multi national, or the state (uncommon in the UK since Thatcher), or both (common in the UK), is at the mercy of thorough risk management. Large capital investment requires all risks to be minimised. If the UK and EU end up in dispute, likely through political positions one side takes (the UK has looked more likely but there's a chance in the future an EU member could do something forcing the EU to back them or not), then a trade war is a possibility and tariffs return.
The issue with "the national interest" you mention, is there's never a strong sense the UK has one, never much of a plan. When there is a plan it's often not fully implemented (eg HS2). Does anyone know what the UK's desired energy mix is, there was a plan for a large nuclear build but most of that never went anywhere. It's the same for trade, there's no sense of what the UK is trying to achieve, each new development is disconnected from the last. A focus of the TCA was the automotive industry and requirements for reduced tariff access, central to that is rules of origin. If there was a joined up plan there would be a desire to retain UK steel production because that safeguards meeting rule of origin requirements in the TCA (and any other trade deals). The lower the value of UK inputs into the finished product the higher the value of EU inputs into the finished product needed, to be rules of origin compliant.