What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Russian diesel and petrol production has dropped by over 200,000 tons per week since the Ukrainian drone campaign began, and the shortfall can’t be offset by imports from Belarus and Kazakhstan.

[tabascoboy]

BREAKING — Parliament refuses discharge of the Council budget until European Council decided to support Ukraine with additional Patriot anti-missile systems !

[Hellraiser]

ECONOMYGERMANY
Three quarters - for Ukraine: German arms exports are growing

Vitaly Kropman | Anastasia Shepelev
04/10/2024

In the first quarter of 2024, the German government approved exports of military goods worth at least 4.89 billion euros. Almost three quarters of German arms exports are destined for Ukraine.

The number of licenses issued for the export of German weapons is still growing. From January 1 to March 27, the German government approved exports of military goods worth at least 4.89 billion euros. This is almost as much as in the entire first half of 2023 - 5.22 billion euros. Almost three-quarters of this amount (72 percent, or 3.54 billion euros) is allocated to Ukraine, which Germany supports in its defense against Russian military aggression. This is stated in the response of the Ministry of Economy to the question of the deputy of the Bundestag Sevim Dağdelen (Sevim Dağdelen) from the "Union of Sarah Wagenknecht", to which the agency dpa refers on Wednesday, April 10.

In the first year of the war, in 2022, Ukraine approved an arms supply of 2.24 billion euros, including air defense systems and heavy artillery. In 2023, they were added to the main Leopard 2 battle tanks, which the German government provided after long hesitations. Volume of export licenses for Ukraine rose to 4.4 billion euros. In three months of 2024, exports already smeared 3.54 billion euros.

https://www.dw.com/uk/tri-cverti-dla-uk ... a-68784217

[tabascoboy]

General Syrskyi's update on the eastern front: The situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days. This is primarily due to the significant intensification of the enemy's offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.

The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman, Bakhmut directions with assault groups with the support of armored vehicles. In the Pokrovsk direction, he is trying to break through our defenses using dozens of tanks and BMPs.

This is facilitated by warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks. Despite significant losses, the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armored vehicles, due to which he periodically achieves tactical success.

Therefore, the first day of my work in the area of the operation is dedicated to this direction and to taking all the necessary measures to stabilize the situation, increase the effectiveness of our troops' actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units.

Based on conclusions regarding the nature of the enemy's actions, decisions were made aimed at strengthening the most problematic areas of the defense by means of EW and air defense. Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved.

The question of achieving technical superiority over the enemy in high-tech weapons arose again.
Only this will give us the opportunity to defeat the larger enemy and create conditions for overtaking the strategic initiative.
The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and Western weapons.

First of all, the solution of this task depends on the command of the Ground Forces, which has returned in full from the area of hostilities.

The results of my work will be taken into account in the training plans of the troops and governing bodies.

Of course, I honored the best warriors with awards and valuable gifts.
In personal communication with our servicemen, they discussed the current situation, as well as ways to solve all problematic issues. We are aware of the real scale and degree of threat from the enemy and are ready to take adequate and effective actions.

[Calculon]

interesting analysis not only for what it says but also from where it comes from. Wouldn’t have been published without prior political approval.

[Thor Sedan]

So is it safe to say that Ukraine has now been ground down by the waves of Russian flesh targets to a point where they are allowing areas to be taken in order to save Ukrainian lives? Bleak all round I'd imagine.

The abandonment of Ukraine from some areas of the West is repugnant - I hope a few political figures end up in a great deal of pain over their subservience to russia.

[Plim]

So is it safe to say that Ukraine has now been ground down by the waves of Russian flesh targets to a point where they are allowing areas to be taken in order to save Ukrainian lives? Bleak all round I'd imagine.

The abandonment of Ukraine from some areas of the West is repugnant - I hope a few political figures end up in a great deal of pain over their subservience to russia.

I agree about the passive complicity of some in the west.

But going by the analyst’s careful view posted above, there is unlikely to be much change over the summer; and if Ukraine does fall into undeniable evacuation or retreat I strongly think the west - inc the US, even under the bouffant moron - will reappraise and get significant weaponry in quickly.

[Hellraiser]

So is it safe to say that Ukraine has now been ground down by the waves of Russian flesh targets to a point where they are allowing areas to be taken in order to save Ukrainian lives? Bleak all round I'd imagine.

The abandonment of Ukraine from some areas of the West is repugnant - I hope a few political figures end up in a great deal of pain over their subservience to russia.

Eh, no. That's a bizarre take.

[Niegs]

Never would have guessed Nepalese mercenaries are fighting for Russia. What a shitty situation these men have got themselves into... even the ones heading to Qatar for construction work. Agents preying on people's desperation for the uncaring nations that want cheap drones.

[Thor Sedan]

So is it safe to say that Ukraine has now been ground down by the waves of Russian flesh targets to a point where they are allowing areas to be taken in order to save Ukrainian lives? Bleak all round I'd imagine.

The abandonment of Ukraine from some areas of the West is repugnant - I hope a few political figures end up in a great deal of pain over their subservience to russia.

Eh, no. That's a bizarre take.

Care to elaborate?

My understanding is that there is a tactic called 'shaping' - where land is given without conflict in order to protect actual important land forms (high ground, forests, rivers etc). Have we entered into a phase where the shear volume of meat sacks that russia is willing to throw at defences - and the dwindling Ukrainian troops (and Western support) able to defend means that we are going to see much more advancement by russia in the summer months?

[tabascoboy]

Full text of ChrisO's tweets with images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1779 ... 55460.html

[Niegs]

[yermum]

One bit of good news if true

[Hellraiser]

One bit of good news if true

It's more than that. If true that it was the Ukrainians rather than another friendly fire incident, it means that the Ukrainians either have SOF with Stingers operating deep in Russia, or they have a very long range AA capability that is not publicly known.

[yermum]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31356

Being reported as a s200 strike….

[Hellraiser]

German officials today announced the arrest of two men with dual Russian-German citizenship on suspicion of spying for Russia and plotting sabotage on military installations in Germany, including US military bases, to undermine military support for Ukraine.

According to the Voice of America, two men, Dieter S. and Alexander J., were arrested on April 17 in the small city of Bayreuth in the south of Bavaria: “And in the south of Germany there are military bases where Ukrainian military personnel are trained.”

The main accused, 39-year-old Dieter S., had been in contact with a Russian intelligence officer since October 2023 and developed plans for sabotage in Germany, including “US military facilities” located in Germany. His accomplice Alexander J. began helping him at least in March 2024. Dieter S. fought for the so-called quasi-formation in 2014-2016. "DPR".

“We will not allow Putin to bring his terror to Germany,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock. Among the military installations where the defendants spied was the US Army base at Grafenwoehr in Bavaria. The base has an important military training ground where the US military trains Ukrainians, incl. control of Abrams tanks.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31356

Being reported as a s200 strike….

Makes sense. They've been quietly upgrading them over the last few years.

[Hellraiser]

The House voted 319-94 to advance the Ukraine bill to a final vote tomorrow. It's as good as done.

[tabascoboy]

German officials today announced the arrest of two men with dual Russian-German citizenship on suspicion of spying for Russia and plotting sabotage on military installations in Germany, including US military bases, to undermine military support for Ukraine.

According to the Voice of America, two men, Dieter S. and Alexander J., were arrested on April 17 in the small city of Bayreuth in the south of Bavaria: “And in the south of Germany there are military bases where Ukrainian military personnel are trained.”

The main accused, 39-year-old Dieter S., had been in contact with a Russian intelligence officer since October 2023 and developed plans for sabotage in Germany, including “US military facilities” located in Germany. His accomplice Alexander J. began helping him at least in March 2024. Dieter S. fought for the so-called quasi-formation in 2014-2016. "DPR".

“We will not allow Putin to bring his terror to Germany,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock. Among the military installations where the defendants spied was the US Army base at Grafenwoehr in Bavaria. The base has an important military training ground where the US military trains Ukrainians, incl. control of Abrams tanks.

@yigal_levin

Wagner associates?

[Hellraiser]

General Budanov, head of the GUR, reaffirms that the Russian Tu-22M3 was shot down this morning by Ukrainian missiles.

“We shot down the plane at a distance of 308 km, using the same means as we did with the A-50. The preparation took us a week.”

[Hellraiser]

Interesting video about Gepard ammo production.

[Hellraiser]

Visual evidence has emerged that Russia has received 203mm M106 HE ammunition from Iran for it's 2S7 Pions. This ammunition would belong to Iran's 30 or so M110 howitzers, so it's basically all from pre-1979. It also means that Russia has or is close to exhausting it's own 203mm ammo stocks as that calibre is no longer in production.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The German company Quantum-Systems GmbH opened a new factory for the production of drones and a development center in Ukraine.

The new plant will be the company's second enterprise in Ukraine, it is expected that by the end of the year it will employ about 100 people. The new production facility will be able to produce up to 1,000 reconnaissance drones per year, as well as spare parts for them.

Quantum Systems plans to invest up to €6 million in new production over the next two years.

The German manufacturer already has a service, support, training and logistics center in Ukraine. It employs 25 employees who train drone operators and implement technological advances in intelligence systems.

https://biz.censor.net/n3485291

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[geordie_6]

US Congress has signed off on a $61 billion aid package.

[Flockwitt]

And Biden's already said he'll sign, so thankfully that's an important hurdle dealt with.

[petej]

And Biden's already said he'll sign, so thankfully that's an important hurdle dealt with.

Considering European support has continued to increase does this mean there is enough for the Ukrainians to go on the attack.

[Hellraiser]

And Biden's already said he'll sign, so thankfully that's an important hurdle dealt with.

Considering European support has continued to increase does this mean there is enough for the Ukrainians to go on the attack.

No, that's months away at least. Possibly even 2025.

[Flockwitt]

Yep, and the important issue of further Ukrainian mobilisation has to dealt with at some point, but at least this gives the Ukrainians a few options to plan how to manage things going forward.

[Hellraiser]

Yep, and the important issue of further Ukrainian mobilisation has to dealt with at some point, but at least this gives the Ukrainians a few options to plan how to manage things going forward.

Nothing will happen until after the F-16s arrive. They'll increase arty fire to halt the Russians and increase attrition, plus make local counterattacks, but nothing large scale.

We'll get a better idea when we start seeing transfer announcements for IFVs and tanks again, and/or that Rheinmetall production facility starts to pump out vehicles.

[Hellraiser]

Schumer said the Senate will vote on the bill on Tuesday.

[Flockwitt]

Yep, and the important issue of further Ukrainian mobilisation has to dealt with at some point, but at least this gives the Ukrainians a few options to plan how to manage things going forward.

Nothing will happen until after the F-16s arrive. They'll increase arty fire to halt the Russians and increase attrition, plus make local counterattacks, but nothing large scale.

We'll get a better idea when we start seeing transfer announcements for IFVs and tanks again, and/or that Rheinmetall production facility starts to pump out vehicles.

Yeah, first job is to reduce the damage Russia is able to inflict with their assualts, clear the airspace a bit, counter battery et al. There has to be a breaking point for the Russian army and the way they are currently conducting operations. Another ratchet up in Ukrainian defensive abilities will make Russian operations untenable even for those ordering the slaughter houses.

At least now Ukraine should have a bit of breathing space to rebuild and rotate while minimising the impact to their economy. Another issue they had is they need surety of continued supply, rather than a one off big push and then grinding to a halt, they'll be able plan for continued pressure through 2025.

[fishfoodie]

Giving the insane number of mines, & their density in Ukraine, there must be a significant amount of money set aside for working out how to: (a) punch a hole thru them for attacks, & (b) longer term clearance.

For (a), the Orcs might have had a good idea in turning defunct tanks into robot suicide bombs, there must be a lot of scrap tanks out there that could have remote controls installed, & just drive them into the mine fields to punch holes

[Hellraiser]

Giving the insane number of mines, & their density in Ukraine, there must be a significant amount of money set aside for working out how to: (a) punch a hole thru them for attacks, & (b) longer term clearance.

For (a), the Orcs might have had a good idea in turning defunct tanks into robot suicide bombs, there must be a lot of scrap tanks out there that could have remote controls installed, & just drive them into the mine fields to punch holes

I've heard some speculation that they've been playing around with large drones dragging kilometres long MICLICs through minefields. Don't know how feasible that is given the weight of something like that.

[geordie_6]

Giving the insane number of mines, & their density in Ukraine, there must be a significant amount of money set aside for working out how to: (a) punch a hole thru them for attacks, & (b) longer term clearance.

For (a), the Orcs might have had a good idea in turning defunct tanks into robot suicide bombs, there must be a lot of scrap tanks out there that could have remote controls installed, & just drive them into the mine fields to punch holes

I've heard some speculation that they've been playing around with large drones dragging kilometres long MICLICs through minefields. Don't know how feasible that is given the weight of something like that.

Could they look at knocking together some flail tanks from old/damaged tanks? Particularly if any offensive is likely to be in 2025?

[Hellraiser]

Giving the insane number of mines, & their density in Ukraine, there must be a significant amount of money set aside for working out how to: (a) punch a hole thru them for attacks, & (b) longer term clearance.

For (a), the Orcs might have had a good idea in turning defunct tanks into robot suicide bombs, there must be a lot of scrap tanks out there that could have remote controls installed, & just drive them into the mine fields to punch holes

I've heard some speculation that they've been playing around with large drones dragging kilometres long MICLICs through minefields. Don't know how feasible that is given the weight of something like that.

Could they look at knocking together some flail tanks from old/damaged tanks? Particularly if any offensive is likely to be in 2025?

The issue there is the density of mines and the fact that Russian drones would spot them very quickly. Such a vehicle wouldn't get very far before being disabled or destroyed unless there was significant suppression of Russian artillery and effective EW support. As such it would probably be a better use of resources to scrap such tanks for spare parts.

The Ukrainians need to come up with a method of quickly clearing 100s of metres of depth at a time.

[fishfoodie]

I've heard some speculation that they've been playing around with large drones dragging kilometres long MICLICs through minefields. Don't know how feasible that is given the weight of something like that.

Could they look at knocking together some flail tanks from old/damaged tanks? Particularly if any offensive is likely to be in 2025?

The issue there is the density of mines and the fact that Russian drones would spot them very quickly. Such a vehicle wouldn't get very far before being disabled or destroyed unless there was significant suppression of Russian artillery and effective EW support. As such it would probably be a better use of resources to scrap such tanks for spare parts.

The Ukrainians need to come up with a method of quickly clearing 100s of metres of depth at a time.

MOAB(s) !

[geordie_6]

I've heard some speculation that they've been playing around with large drones dragging kilometres long MICLICs through minefields. Don't know how feasible that is given the weight of something like that.

Could they look at knocking together some flail tanks from old/damaged tanks? Particularly if any offensive is likely to be in 2025?

The issue there is the density of mines and the fact that Russian drones would spot them very quickly. Such a vehicle wouldn't get very far before being disabled or destroyed unless there was significant suppression of Russian artillery and effective EW support. As such it would probably be a better use of resources to scrap such tanks for spare parts.

The Ukrainians need to come up with a method of quickly clearing 100s of metres of depth at a time.

Yep, fair point. Thanks mate.

[Hellraiser]

Seeing some rumours in the OSINT community that the IFV/APC situation for the Russians is much worse than previously thought; storage bases being much emptier than earlier assessed and remaining vehicles showing far more signs of cannibalization for parts. I've seen one source tentatively revise his AFV replacement window from 18-24 months, to 12-18 months.