Stop voting for fucking Tories

[C69]

Kind of individual that you should say no to.

You'd think there would be more political capital in saying she asked to join but we said no as she doesn't align with our values. In saying that, the headline is "Tory Defects", and most won't be much interested beyond that.

It's the headline of the MP for Dover, that is plagued buy immigration has defected and called the PM and his immigration policy useless that counts.
That has got to hurt big style.

She hates Sunak so wants him to suffer.
I suspect this is going to be a slow drip as the last defector hinted.

[_Os_]

It's a bad move by Labour, and is a red flag.

Elphicke is a Tory headbanger loony. It's people like her which are a big part of the problem and why this thread exists at all.

Unfortunately Labour may think the pro-Brexit and immigration obsessed segment of the UK electorate, the people some know as gammons, are crucial to winning an election. This is a feature of FPTP, a small demographic spread over the right seats and prepared to change its vote gets everything they want given to them to win them over. Not convinced Labour actually need this support or even that they can win it, but why else would they want Elphicke. As has been posted before the larger problem is the gammons are basically wrong on everything, their analysis is wrong and their solutions are wrong, difficult to see how anything improves whilst their (often contradictory) demands are being accommodated.

[tabascoboy]

Well, that didn't last long

Former England cricketer Monty Panesar has quit George Galloway's party - just one week after being unveiled as a candidate.

Mr Panesar was the highest-profile recruit among dozens the Workers Party of Britain unveiled last week.

He had said he wanted to "represent the working class people of this country" at Westminster.

But, writing on social media, he said he needs more time to "find my political home".

[I like neeps]

Kind of individual that you should say no to.

You'd think there would be more political capital in saying she asked to join but we said no as she doesn't align with our values. In saying that, the headline is "Tory Defects", and most won't be much interested beyond that.

It's the headline of the MP for Dover, that is plagued buy immigration has defected and called the PM and his immigration policy useless that counts.
That has got to hurt big style.

She hates Sunak so wants him to suffer.
I suspect this is going to be a slow drip as the last defector hinted.

Giving up your principles for a headline? Dear oh dear.

As Os said, Elphicke's political views, public remarks, and hectoring of sexual assault victims are why we have have this thread. To accept someone who is so openly contradictory to your policies and values so that they can engage in a publicity stunt and you can get some headlines... It's needless. Shows a complete lack of principle - Labour already have the Tory chaos headlines, can't stop the boat headlines and will have until the election. You'd even suspect more moderate Tories to switch as they've been doing.

2025 and she'll be a Reform candidate on GB News criticising Starmer for not stopping the boats as she announces a return to Badenoch's Tories or Farage's reform. You engage with deeply unpleasant, power and fame hungry individuals at your own peril.

[C69]

Have to disagree with the posts above, on a political level this plays put really well.
If this right wing head banger can defect to Labour then it sends a message to the right wingers that this tame Blairite post Corbyn lot can't be the raving lefties the Tories say they are.

I don't like it but politically it's painting a picture of Tory incompetence on immigration and shows Starmer can be trusted.
It's political drip drip drip.

[I like neeps]

The issue Labour have, is that small boats aren't driven by domestic policies. You have every country in Europe, and the USA, completely unable to stop people escaping poverty, wars, climate breakdown.

So let's say Labour decide to spend the money (uh oh) required to get the French to stop their laissez faire border policing, scale up the people and systems required to process claims and then send people back. You won't have a meaningful improvement for a year or two, at least.

And there's really nothing the press will love more than former Labour MP for Dover Natalie Elphicke on TV hectoring their failure. And there's nothing publicity hungry Natalie Elphicke will enjoy more than that.

Labour, as a priority, should do all they can to calm the rhetoric about small boats. As the Tories have found out, you can make people really angry about small boats, they then become angry at you for not stopping them. So morals notwithstanding, making people angry for a problem even with great politics and money you can't solve.... is not smart!

But also why Starmer's govt won't succeed - not up to them to fix global immigration patterns, won't spend any money on broke and failing public services for which user demand will only increase, won't mention Brexit as they're absolutely terrified of saying that it's failed, and apparently are grubby opportunists who will welcome Tory headbangers with deeply unpleasant views for political points so won't improve the standards of our political class as they'll welcome someone who is among the worst of them into the tent.

[_Os_]

Have to disagree with the posts above, on a political level this plays put really well.
If this right wing head banger can defect to Labour then it sends a message to the right wingers that this tame Blairite post Corbyn lot can't be the raving lefties the Tories say they are.

I don't like it but politically it's painting a picture of Tory incompetence on immigration and shows Starmer can be trusted.
It's political drip drip drip.

It plays well with disengaged/low information voters (most of the electorate) for one news cycle and probably less than that. Unless Starmer can make this a more regular thing, there was speculation around 10 Tory MPs wanted to join Labour.

The red flag is that a party can govern like that too. That's how Tories govern. The trouble is that details matter, that's where the truth and everything else that matters is. It's not always a good idea to act on what polls well with disengaged/low information voters, that ends up in a mess then those same voters blame the government that did everything they wanted.

It's also unnecessarily picking a fight with the left. Abbott still doesn't have the Labour whip but Tory headbanger loony does. It looks bad because it is. The mess the UK is in is so large that if Starmer tries to govern he's going to alienate people, making hard choices means people losing out, if he wants to govern he'll have to move quickly and hope that overall his choices do more good than harm. The suspicion the left has is that those choices will replicate Tory mistakes, they are guessing and don't know for sure, but moves like this feed their fear. It ensures the Greens/SNP/Plaid Cymru will all be on him from day one, delaying those parties becoming a problem should be a Labour priority.

[tabascoboy]

And predictably it's proving divisive

Natalie Elphicke: Keir Starmer faces Labour anger after Tory MP's defection

Sir Keir Starmer's decision to admit Tory MP Natalie Elphicke into Labour has been met with bewilderment by some of his MPs. The Dover MP's surprise defection from the Conservatives has prompted reaction ranging from delight to anger by her new colleagues.

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield said Labour MPs were "baffled" by her "really peculiar" move to swap sides. But a senior party figure hailed her switch as "one hell of a coup". And Sir Keir has said he is "delighted" with her defection, telling reporters it showed his party was "the party of the national interest".

Several sources suggested Labour's whips, responsible for party discipline, were worried about accepting her, but Labour deny this.
...
As well as her political stance, many Labour MPs are deeply uncomfortable with remarks she made about her then-husband Charlie Elphicke, whom she replaced as Dover MP in 2019.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68980700

[C69]

And predictably it's proving divisive

Natalie Elphicke: Keir Starmer faces Labour anger after Tory MP's defection

Sir Keir Starmer's decision to admit Tory MP Natalie Elphicke into Labour has been met with bewilderment by some of his MPs. The Dover MP's surprise defection from the Conservatives has prompted reaction ranging from delight to anger by her new colleagues.

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield said Labour MPs were "baffled" by her "really peculiar" move to swap sides. But a senior party figure hailed her switch as "one hell of a coup". And Sir Keir has said he is "delighted" with her defection, telling reporters it showed his party was "the party of the national interest".

Several sources suggested Labour's whips, responsible for party discipline, were worried about accepting her, but Labour deny this.
...
As well as her political stance, many Labour MPs are deeply uncomfortable with remarks she made about her then-husband Charlie Elphicke, whom she replaced as Dover MP in 2019.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68980700

This was always going to be the case. If you asked Tories they would say the same.
It's a non story. Who cares.

[dpedin]

And predictably it's proving divisive

Natalie Elphicke: Keir Starmer faces Labour anger after Tory MP's defection

Sir Keir Starmer's decision to admit Tory MP Natalie Elphicke into Labour has been met with bewilderment by some of his MPs. The Dover MP's surprise defection from the Conservatives has prompted reaction ranging from delight to anger by her new colleagues.

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield said Labour MPs were "baffled" by her "really peculiar" move to swap sides. But a senior party figure hailed her switch as "one hell of a coup". And Sir Keir has said he is "delighted" with her defection, telling reporters it showed his party was "the party of the national interest".

Several sources suggested Labour's whips, responsible for party discipline, were worried about accepting her, but Labour deny this.
...
As well as her political stance, many Labour MPs are deeply uncomfortable with remarks she made about her then-husband Charlie Elphicke, whom she replaced as Dover MP in 2019.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68980700

This was always going to be the case. If you asked Tories they would say the same.
It's a non story. Who cares.

She is standing down at next GE. I suspect she has acted out of vindictiveness as she has been frustrated with Tory incompetence in handling small boat issue in her Dover & Deal seat. Starmer is happy to take a bit of flack if it gives him another Tory moving over to Labour and all the headlines it comes with but mainly that it says to the voting public in seats like Elphicke's that a Tory thinks Labour is going to win the next GE. It is pure political expediency from both Elphicke and Starmer and strikes a huge blow against a common enemy - Sunak!

Sunak has made a huge political mistake in going low and focusing on culture war issues but then again I dont suppose he has much choice. His attempts to attack Starmer because of his record as DPP and defending illegal immigrants etc, attacks on Khan for basically being non-white, attacks on Rayner for a possible £1.5k tax bill (unfounded), etc have all failed miserably to land a punch despite huge investment from their media mates, whilst Labour continue to focus on the Tories complete failure in Gov and big issues such as housing, economy, cost of living, etc.. Sunak's MPs must be really pissed off having to ask pre planned questions at PMQs on things like women's toilets! Now Zahawi says he is standing down at GE - rats deserting a sinking ship is becoming a rush. Those not leaving are openly now engaged in a leadership election for the tories once he has gone - the likes of Braverman has played her NatC card early, others will follow. Reform Party are waiting for the call to come to the rescue of the tories, Farage is very quiet at the moment and is keeping his powder very dry. Sunak, if for nothing else than retaining a crumb of credibility, has to call a GE soon?

[SaintK]

Another one jumps ship!!
Will probably be remembered for lying about his tax affairs and being sacked more than anything else.
This weeks Private Eye reporting that there was a major push locally to deselect him in his Stratford constituency so maybe he jumped?

Nadhim Zahawi to stand down as MP at next general election
MP for Stratford-on-Avon, former chancellor and Conservative party chair will not seek re-election

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ar ... lection

[David in Gwent]

And predictably it's proving divisive

This was always going to be the case. If you asked Tories they would say the same.
It's a non story. Who cares.

She is standing down at next GE. I suspect she has acted out of vindictiveness as she has been frustrated with Tory incompetence in handling small boat issue in her Dover & Deal seat. Starmer is happy to take a bit of flack if it gives him another Tory moving over to Labour and all the headlines it comes with but mainly that it says to the voting public in seats like Elphicke's that a Tory thinks Labour is going to win the next GE. It is pure political expediency from both Elphicke and Starmer and strikes a huge blow against a common enemy - Sunak!

Sunak has made a huge political mistake in going low and focusing on culture war issues but then again I dont suppose he has much choice. His attempts to attack Starmer because of his record as DPP and defending illegal immigrants etc, attacks on Khan for basically being non-white, attacks on Rayner for a possible £1.5k tax bill (unfounded), etc have all failed miserably to land a punch despite huge investment from their media mates, whilst Labour continue to focus on the Tories complete failure in Gov and big issues such as housing, economy, cost of living, etc.. Sunak's MPs must be really pissed off having to ask pre planned questions at PMQs on things like women's toilets! Now Zahawi says he is standing down at GE - rats deserting a sinking ship is becoming a rush. Those not leaving are openly now engaged in a leadership election for the tories once he has gone - the likes of Braverman has played her NatC card early, others will follow. Reform Party are waiting for the call to come to the rescue of the tories, Farage is very quiet at the moment and is keeping his powder very dry. Sunak, if for nothing else than retaining a crumb of credibility, has to call a GE soon?

So what you're saying is that Sunak is racist in terms of Khan?

[epwc]

Sunak's party has accepted openly Islamophobic comments at every level of the party structure, so maybe he is?

[tabascoboy]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

[epwc]

That would be cool, but my MP is one of the 13

[Biffer]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

The worst case is that projection with the different projection for Scotland. Then they'll be in single figures.

[Insane_Homer]

Defect.jpg (112.31 KiB) Viewed 1807 times

[Paddington Bear]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

[_Os_]

The New Statesman's seat prediction model looks like the best, when the latest Yougov numbers are plugged in it gives 46 Tory MPs.

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/b ... held-today

Yougov is the best political polling company in the UK, those numbers should be taken seriously. The problem with using it to model seats, is at the low levels the Tories are polling margins between very different outcomes are fine. The margin of error (usually 3%-ish), would get the Tories above 20% and still be within the tolerances of the poll (I haven't checked the methodology on that poll, but it probably looks like that). In terms of seats there's a big difference between 15%, 18%, and 21%. This is something the Lib Dems face every GE, if they get 5 or 10 seats everyone thinks they've done badly and if they get 50 everyone thinks they've done quite well, when the difference between those results isn't actually all that much. To avoid this the Tories need to improve their polling, if they remain around where the Lib Dems usually are then a Lib Dems type result is logical.

I think the Tories get over 20% of the vote and take 130-160 seats. Though it does look more likely they collapse a little further and do worse, than improving and doing better than that.

[tabascoboy]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...really can't see Tories being unseated in my constituency though

[Biffer]

The New Statesman's seat prediction model looks like the best, when the latest Yougov numbers are plugged in it gives 46 Tory MPs.

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/b ... held-today

Yougov is the best political polling company in the UK, those numbers should be taken seriously. The problem with using it to model seats, is at the low levels the Tories are polling margins between very different outcomes are fine. The margin of error (usually 3%-ish), would get the Tories above 20% and still be within the tolerances of the poll (I haven't checked the methodology on that poll, but it probably looks like that). In terms of seats there's a big difference between 15%, 18%, and 21%. This is something the Lib Dems face every GE, if they get 5 or 10 seats everyone thinks they've done badly and if they get 50 everyone thinks they've done quite well, when the difference between those results isn't actually all that much. To avoid this the Tories need to improve their polling, if they remain around where the Lib Dems usually are then a Lib Dems type result is logical.

I think the Tories get over 20% of the vote and take 130-160 seats. Though it does look more likely they collapse a little further and do worse, than improving and doing better than that.

Yeah, there's probably a hundred seats where it's less than a thousand votes in it on that model, and incumbents will usually win those. Although a lot of tories in safe seats aren't standing for re-election so some of that incumbent advantage goes away.

[_Os_]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

[Paddington Bear]

There were versions of this the other way around in 2017

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

[_Os_]

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

GE "don't knows" have been slowly going down in Yougov polling since March, from 18% to 14% (have not seen the detailed report for the latest poll).

I don't think Canada result is possible. But the difference between 50 seats, or 100, or 150, isn't as much as it seems. The Tories need to be at least around 25% to avoid the worst.

[inactionman]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

I no longer live in that neck of the woods, but I'll be glad to see the back of Rees Mogg.

He's been voted in as MP for NE Somerset for, what, 15 years now? That's a long, long time to be represented by an over-privileged, unsympathetic and disrespectful haunted pencil

[sockwithaticket]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

I no longer live in that neck of the woods, but I'll be glad to see the back of Rees Mogg.

He's been voted in as MP for NE Somerset for, what, 15 years now? That's a long, long time to be represented by an over-privileged, unsympathetic and disrespectful haunted pencil

Even my distressingly right wing uncle wants rid of the wannabe-Victorian ghoul. Hopefully he ends up banished along with the rest.

[I like neeps]

And predictably it's proving divisive

This was always going to be the case. If you asked Tories they would say the same.
It's a non story. Who cares.

She is standing down at next GE. I suspect she has acted out of vindictiveness as she has been frustrated with Tory incompetence in handling small boat issue in her Dover & Deal seat. Starmer is happy to take a bit of flack if it gives him another Tory moving over to Labour and all the headlines it comes with but mainly that it says to the voting public in seats like Elphicke's that a Tory thinks Labour is going to win the next GE. It is pure political expediency from both Elphicke and Starmer and strikes a huge blow against a common enemy - Sunak!

Sunak has made a huge political mistake in going low and focusing on culture war issues but then again I dont suppose he has much choice. His attempts to attack Starmer because of his record as DPP and defending illegal immigrants etc, attacks on Khan for basically being non-white, attacks on Rayner for a possible £1.5k tax bill (unfounded), etc have all failed miserably to land a punch despite huge investment from their media mates, whilst Labour continue to focus on the Tories complete failure in Gov and big issues such as housing, economy, cost of living, etc.. Sunak's MPs must be really pissed off having to ask pre planned questions at PMQs on things like women's toilets! Now Zahawi says he is standing down at GE - rats deserting a sinking ship is becoming a rush. Those not leaving are openly now engaged in a leadership election for the tories once he has gone - the likes of Braverman has played her NatC card early, others will follow. Reform Party are waiting for the call to come to the rescue of the tories, Farage is very quiet at the moment and is keeping his powder very dry. Sunak, if for nothing else than retaining a crumb of credibility, has to call a GE soon?

Two key problems with this:

Vindictiveness yes, as all her tribe of Tories are, not just for boats issue. For the booting out Truss and Johnson issue. Now remind me, what are your views on Truss/Johnson, the ERG and their cabal of cheerleading MPs dpedin? I don't remember it being particularly positive.

Sunak has focused on culture war issues to his detriment... I can't help but think of a particular MP who has spent the last few years egging that on.

[sturginho]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

[David in Gwent]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Sometimes, just sometimes, if an MP has done a good job for the people in the constituency then they get voted for. It's an old tradition of the UKs.

[Lobby]

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

I'd say the massive change in the result against earlier polling was largely down to Theresa May's disastrous election campaign, probably one of the worst campaigns ever run by a major party. Her advisors thought the election was a foregone conclusion and they decided their headline policy was going to be the Dementia Tax. May was also dreadful herself, refusing to appear on any of the hustings and appearing extremely awkward and robotic every time she interviewed.

Corbyn also ran a very effective campaign, which shouldn't have been a surprise. Campaigning was the one thing he was good at. The very low polling numbers for Labour also made it seem almost like a 'safe' protest vote. Because people thought he was never going to win, even people who were unsure about Corbyn felt OK about voting Labour. In the following election when Corbyn's Labour was considered as a more serious threat to the Government they were hammered in the election.

[Tichtheid]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

[David in Gwent]

This looks like a pretty extreme worst case scenario for Tories, very unlikely IMO but delicious to imagine the blood-letting if it actually happened...

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

No need to answer but are you a UK Citizen?

[Tichtheid]

That's still predicting 6 seats in Scotland?

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

No need to answer but are you a UK Citizen?

Why ask the question if you don't want an answer?

[Tichtheid]

However, without checking the detail, I think the terminology is that I'm a British citizen rather than a UK citizen.

[David in Gwent]

Yeah, at the 2019 UK GE the Tories got 25% of the vote and 6 seats, they are currently down around 9 percentage points from there. They have two rumps of support in the Borders and in the North East, it will be interesting to see how those stand up in the coming election.

There was a joke at one time that Scotland had more Giant Pandas than Tory MPs, the Pandas have gone, hopefully the Tories will follow suit.

No need to answer but are you a UK Citizen?

Why ask the question if you don't want an answer?

Because ultimately I don't care that much. But thanks.

[Tichtheid]

what a fucking knob.

[David in Gwent]

what a fucking knob.

Harsh, but fair.

[SaintK]

what a fucking knob.

Far too kind

[JM2K6]

It's a nonsense, but we can dream...

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

Labour people didn't really have anyone else to vote for after the Lib Dems shit the bed. The Tories have some actual competition and Labour themselves are offering policies that appeal to a lot of Tory voters. The "hate the idea of a Labour government" lot are not a large percentage as it stands - it's essentially the Tory ride-or-die types who are literally the only people voting for them, and even then they're splitting their vote with the further-right groups.

[Paddington Bear]

Corbyn was polling far behind the Tories in the run up to 2017, about 23% to the Tories 40%+, he was over 20 pts behind at times. That's where predictions of Labour wipe out come from. Corbyn then closed the gap in the final two months won over 40% and was 2.5 pts behind the Tories.

Is Sunak going to manage to add 20%?

A lot of that was Labour people who hated Corbyn saying ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ who then did so. Lots of people hate, hate the idea of a Labour government. The Tories will lose but they’re not about to be wiped out like the Canadian Tories were in the 90s

Labour people didn't really have anyone else to vote for after the Lib Dems shit the bed. The Tories have some actual competition and Labour themselves are offering policies that appeal to a lot of Tory voters. The "hate the idea of a Labour government" lot are not a large percentage as it stands - it's essentially the Tory ride-or-die types who are literally the only people voting for them, and even then they're splitting their vote with the further-right groups.

We’ll see. I don’t think the election will be close, but I think total Tory wipeout predictions verge on fantasy