President Trump and US politics catchall

[Flockwitt]

For what it's worth my money's on Harris taking PA. She kinda has to and I think if nothing else the Swifties will get it over the line for her.

But there are a bunch of factors working for Harris, the woman vote, the elderly, the offended Puerto Ricans, and also key, the number of Nikki protest votes from the GOP that'll head her way, while the Taylor Swift endorsement has genuinely resonated in the singer's home state.

[Paddington Bear]

There have been a huge number of polls, many bogus - the point is that the adage that the only polls that matter are those within a week of the election is true enough, and in this case the poll referenced is the gold standard in pollsters who one month ago declared Iowa for Trump. This hasn't moved without good reason which is a positive for Harris. If she's managed to tap the voters who put Clinton and Obama into power she's done well which will have implications elsewhere - we're beyond the point of smoke and mirrors now.

I think that outcome is just as likely as Trump having energised lots of white working class people who don’t normally vote - which is something we’re told by his outriders is happening as well. Must admit I think a Harris landslide is very very unlikely. These gold standard polls should still be taken with a massive pinch of salt.

Not really. There is a difference between throwing a blanket opinion over something and selecting specific bits of information. This pollster got the 2016 election right when everybody else didn’t. She understands Trumpism. For her to make the readjustment she has a few days out from the election says something. Which doesn’t have to be a confident indication of a blue wave, far from it, but rather there are factors at play here contrary to the general vibe. US politics is complex and does vary from location to location.

Let’s see. Trump is certainly spouting plenty of hot air over the subject. He doesn’t like it one bit.

Half the world has jumped on an outlier poll because it says what we want it to say. Everything else is after the event rationalisation.

We’ll see soon enough as you suggest

[Enzedder]

Gameday (NZ time). I have a feeling in my gut that the US will see sense and then the sideshow will be fun to watch. We'll see.

One funny thing - the UK had their elections 4th July, the USA having theirs on 5th November. Such a love of fireworks.

[Flockwitt]

For all the sound bites and obvious factors at play for Harris regards abortion etc I'm still not at all confident. In the US it's economy, economy and economy - and the cost of living has spiralled after the trade wars, government and covid money printing. Regardless of the fact employment is high and the current government has done more to bring back manufacturing to the US than any other in 50 years before, Biden was dead in the water and Trump's still got every chance. How the muppets think he is actually going to be better on the economy and inflation nobody knows but that's still what the polls are saying is the national opinion.

[fishfoodie]

Gameday (NZ time). I have a feeling in my gut that the US will see sense and then the sideshow will be fun to watch. We'll see.

One funny thing - the UK had their elections 4th July, the USA having theirs on 5th November. Such a love of fireworks.

What I keep on coming back to is the simple fact that America rejected him in 2020, when the Democrats had a worse candidate, & all the shit he's done since then is just a laundry list of reasons to reject him for one last time, & let him face the consequences of the crimes he's committed & die in gaol !

[Jethro]

It’s a very good point. Trumps done nothing but promise more tariffs for the last month.

Yeah, you never know what resonates where. One point that seems to be potentially swinging some of the >65 age group, which are notoriously hard to budge, is the cheaper meds that Biden fought for, Harris has promised more of, and the GOP in the pocket of big pharma are refusing to support. This likely won’t have much impact on the wealthy retirees in Florida - it could mean the difference between winning and losing in PA.

Actually Florida is considered in play currently, will believe a Blue win when i see it as can't see it happening. If it does Donny is in real trouble across the board. Latest reports are also putting Texas into play, once again that seems to be a Democratic daydream they come up with every election. Senate race in the lone star state should be interesting however.

For anyone wanting to keep up on live updates was recommended this site.

https://www.axios.com/visuals/election- ... pdates-map

[Jethro]

[Niegs]

A good chat about the phenomenon of Trump supporters.

[Biffer]

It’s a very good point. Trumps done nothing but promise more tariffs for the last month.

Yeah, you never know what resonates where. One point that seems to be potentially swinging some of the >65 age group, which are notoriously hard to budge, is the cheaper meds that Biden fought for, Harris has promised more of, and the GOP in the pocket of big pharma are refusing to support. This likely won’t have much impact on the wealthy retirees in Florida - it could mean the difference between winning and losing in PA.

Actually Florida is considered in play currently, will believe a Blue win when i see it as can't see it happening. If it does Donny is in real trouble across the board. Latest reports are also putting Texas into play, once again that seems to be a Democratic daydream they come up with every election. Senate race in the lone star state should be interesting however.

For anyone wanting to keep up on live updates was recommended this site.

https://www.axios.com/visuals/election- ... pdates-map

600,000 votes in it last time in Texas, in a state with a population of 30,000,000. And Republican voters are dying a lot more than Democrats. Other demographic change as well. If its not in play this time, it will be soon.

[Hal Jordan]

Texas is always in play, then votes red.

[TedMaul]

Austin v blue these days.

[Thor Sedan]

Gameday (NZ time). I have a feeling in my gut that the US will see sense and then the sideshow will be fun to watch. We'll see.

One funny thing - the UK had their elections 4th July, the USA having theirs on 5th November. Such a love of fireworks.

What I keep on coming back to is the simple fact that America rejected him in 2020, when the Democrats had a worse candidate, & all the shit he's done since then is just a laundry list of reasons to reject him for one last time, & let him face the consequences of the crimes he's committed & die in gaol !

Worse candidate - but holy bejesus he turned out to be damn effective.

[fishfoodie]

Gameday (NZ time). I have a feeling in my gut that the US will see sense and then the sideshow will be fun to watch. We'll see.

One funny thing - the UK had their elections 4th July, the USA having theirs on 5th November. Such a love of fireworks.

What I keep on coming back to is the simple fact that America rejected him in 2020, when the Democrats had a worse candidate, & all the shit he's done since then is just a laundry list of reasons to reject him for one last time, & let him face the consequences of the crimes he's committed & die in gaol !

Worse candidate - but holy bejesus he turned out to be damn effective.

How good a candidate is has zero to do with how effective they'll be if they win !

Just look at Joe, or for contrast the Bumblecunt; brilliant candidate, but a dumpster fire of a PM.

The authoritarians love to put up great candidates that people will vote for, & worry about what scum they are later; if ever !

[sturginho]

Is it too late for a last minute appeal to the Mockers?

[tabascoboy]

Still resigned to Trump getting in again, God help us all...

[Fonz]

Is it too late for a last minute appeal to the Mockers?

Happy to help.

My prediction is Trump sweeping the swing states plus taking New Hampshire. That would be 316-222. And, as for the popular vote, sure, give that to Trump too. Why not.

[Slick]

Gameday (NZ time). I have a feeling in my gut that the US will see sense and then the sideshow will be fun to watch. We'll see.

One funny thing - the UK had their elections 4th July, the USA having theirs on 5th November. Such a love of fireworks.

What I keep on coming back to is the simple fact that America rejected him in 2020, when the Democrats had a worse candidate, & all the shit he's done since then is just a laundry list of reasons to reject him for one last time, & let him face the consequences of the crimes he's committed & die in gaol !

He was white and male, so depends how you define worse candidate

[Sandstorm]

Gameday (NZ time). I have a feeling in my gut that the US will see sense and then the sideshow will be fun to watch. We'll see.

One funny thing - the UK had their elections 4th July, the USA having theirs on 5th November. Such a love of fireworks.

What I keep on coming back to is the simple fact that America rejected him in 2020, when the Democrats had a worse candidate, & all the shit he's done since then is just a laundry list of reasons to reject him for one last time, & let him face the consequences of the crimes he's committed & die in gaol !

He was white and male, so depends how you define worse candidate

Quite. Joe was infinitely more electable than Hillary, regardless of her gender/skin texture.

[Flockwitt]

Yep. Hillary was an outright polarizing individual. Sleepy Joe a deceptively effective non-entity.

[Jim Lahey]

I'm sure its been discussed before but how did the pandemic effect voting behaviour in 2020? As in which candidate suffered the most due to society's restrictions at that time?

[sockwithaticket]

I'm sure its been discussed before but how did the pandemic effect voting behaviour in 2020? As in which candidate suffered the most due to society's restrictions at that time?

Republican states were less likely to enact and enforce measures to stop the spread of the disease and Republicans elsewhere were less likely to comply, so the death toll skewed in their direction.

Trump was vocally anti-postal vote and that was believed to have cost him.

[sefton]

I wonder how Goeagles has voted.

[Sandstorm]

I wonder how Goeagles has voted.

Spoiled it. Guaranteed.

[Jethro]

I wonder how Goeagles has voted.

Probably playing with his Avengers play set

And the weirdness in U.S politics continue, New Hampshire called for Harris on a couple of sites with no actual vote counts in or the polls closed

Speaking of polling, huge swing to Trump in final polls, anyone actually taking U.S polling companies seriously anymore?

[Uncle fester]

[Kiwias]

How insecure is he?

[fishfoodie]

The Traitor has already started posting lies about voter fraud in PA; needless to say Philly Officials have said there are no such reports !

[Jethro]

The Traitor has already started posting lies about voter fraud in PA; needless to say Philly Officials have said there are no such reports !

Penn officials are warning any tactics used in voting fraud are going to be meet with a harsh reaction, as they put it "fuck around and see what happens"

[sockwithaticket]

I'll believe consequences when I see them. There've been plenty of reports of various MAGAts being turned away from voting over the last few days for wearing political items of clothing - Trump voted in his unmissable red MAGA hat.

That's such a basic, easy thing to police and yet it hasn't been done. He'll be permitted to spew all his lies and bile about electoral theft and Democrat cheating without issue or interruption.

[fishfoodie]

Lots of chatter that Ted 'My Dad shot JFK' Cruz is going to lose tonight

I think the DNC were running a continuous loop of ads showing lying Ted fucking off to Cancun while his constituents were dying, & it might have paid off with the right candidate

[fishfoodie]

How the ever-loving fuck in 2024 in the richest nation on earth are people facing a 5 hour queue to vote ???

[petej]

Looks like trump is going to win.

[Enzedder]

Well, early results show this is going to be a lot closer than we thought. If I had to pick a winner, it would be Trump at this stage based on progress results in the key states.

[Jim Lahey]

Paddy Power has Trump down to 1.3 from 1.56 earlier today, and Harris up to 3.5 from 2.5 . . . . . .

[sockwithaticket]

Surely it's too early to be calling anything? Voting has only just closed in a few of the swing states.

[Kiwias]

It is seriously depressing that it is this close.

[Jethro]

Surely it's too early to be calling anything? Voting has only just closed in a few of the swing states.

Like most elections people panic, or get excited by early counts .. which are invariably regional hence conservative while the urban votes - which are invariable liberal take time to count up. Surprise at the moment is Democrat leads in middle American states, won't last but hey looks good.

Spoke too soon, Cruz picked up a solid chunk of support and is leading.

[Jethro]

Texas is always in play, then votes red.

Looks like it happened again, at the moment no Democrat gains in the state.

[Jethro]

Harris takes lead in Wisconsin.

[Gumboot]

Trump takes Iowa, so the Selzer poll was wrong.

It's looking pretty grim...