What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Linked article is only available by registering/subscribing with Bloomberg, we'll know more details next week no doubt - if it doesn't leak before then...

Bloomberg: The US intends to present Trump's peace plan for Ukraine to allies next week at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

The elements include a potential freezing of the war, but the occupied Ukrainian territory remains in an uncertain state.

Simultaneously, there are plans to provide security guarantees to Ukraine to prevent Moscow from attacking again, although the specifics of these guarantees are not yet clear.

Guess they were premature...

[Flockwitt]

Ah. Good post. I'd seen several reports that the peace proposal was going to be tabled.

[tabascoboy]

Ah. Good post. I'd seen several reports that the peace proposal was going to be tabled.

BTW the Daily Mail published an allegedly leaked "peace plan" that's based on an article with no author published by the strongly pro-Russian outlet Strana ua, which "plan" is entirely a capitulation to Russian desires. This article, with no name or sources, was published on 26 January. Notably, the author stated that there's no guarantee that this is a real plan, adding that perhaps it's a compilation of the public statements made to date. Meanwhile, Daily Mail presented it as fact...

And seemingly little hope for pressure from within Russia itself to end the war

[Flockwitt]

The issues within Russia are complex. A problem is the past recent history was so bad it really isn't on the cards that people are going to look for regime change, pressure to end the war is a different thing though.

[Uncle fester]

Ah. Good post. I'd seen several reports that the peace proposal was going to be tabled.

BTW the Daily Mail published an allegedly leaked "peace plan" that's based on an article with no author published by the strongly pro-Russian outlet Strana ua, which "plan" is entirely a capitulation to Russian desires. This article, with no name or sources, was published on 26 January. Notably, the author stated that there's no guarantee that this is a real plan, adding that perhaps it's a compilation of the public statements made to date. Meanwhile, Daily Mail presented it as fact...

And seemingly little hope for pressure from within Russia itself to end the war

The same people who "voted" 88% for Putin in the last election?

[tabascoboy]

Ah. Good post. I'd seen several reports that the peace proposal was going to be tabled.

BTW the Daily Mail published an allegedly leaked "peace plan" that's based on an article with no author published by the strongly pro-Russian outlet Strana ua, which "plan" is entirely a capitulation to Russian desires. This article, with no name or sources, was published on 26 January. Notably, the author stated that there's no guarantee that this is a real plan, adding that perhaps it's a compilation of the public statements made to date. Meanwhile, Daily Mail presented it as fact...

And seemingly little hope for pressure from within Russia itself to end the war

The same people who "voted" 88% for Putin in the last election?

Quite probably a biased source, and large numbers of the people only have access to what Russian media tells them and that message certainly isn't going to be a negative one .

[Flockwitt]

Nice little update from Andrew Perpetua (the destroyed equipment counter) on three small local counter attacks. It's informative on a number of different aspects.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeRDlepOPaA

[tabascoboy]

How it started vs How it's going

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

It also means that Kaliningrad is cut off from the Russian supply grid.

[tabascoboy]

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Alternatively was this one just an old badly maintained piece of crap?

One interesting comment about this:

Contrary to basically everything else including Islamist terror attacks, they will not blame Ukraine this time. Because the last thing you want is your customers who buy oil from poorly insured ships thinking "This could happen in our ports."

The oil tanker "Koala" which sank yesterday in the Russian port of Ust-Luga was possibly mined. This reports the Russian TG channel "Baza".

At the moment, no explosives were found, but search dogs are still searching the ship. However, investigators found three holes in the tanker's hull near the engine room.

The tanker is currently at the third berth in the seaport in Ust-Luga and holds 130,000 tons of fuel oil.

[tabascoboy]

But will Elon say yes...?

[Slick]

Victory weapons sound cool

[Sandstorm]

Victory weapons sound cool

Probably cost more than Defeat weapons.

[dpedin]

Victory weapons sound cool

Probably cost more than Defeat weapons.

I presume this still has to be run past 19 year old IT engineer BigBalls from Doge Team before it happens? Obviously no women, gays or trans military personnel will be allowed any part in organising this so it might take a wee while?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

The prospect of a ceasefire is causing serious alarm in Russian military circles, because demobilization will result in a complete collapse of Russian combat capabilities. At this point >80% of Russian forces are mobilized men.

As such a divide is opening up between those pushing to reject any ceasefire proposals and continue fighting, and those who are now pushing commanders and political officers to force mobilized men to sign contracts in advance of a ceasefire or be sent to die on meat assaults.

The likes of Rusich are openly stating that if men are demobilized Russia will never be able to get them back into uniform five or ten years down the line.

Russia now has both its balls in a vice. If they agree a ceasefire the army will collapse, if they continue fighting the economy will collapse.

[Enzedder]

I have always thought the army would collapse before the economy - still with that thought but confidence is way lower

[Hellraiser]

Russia's population has dropped by 3.1m since 2020. There hasn't been a positive birth/death rate since 2016.

[tabascoboy]

Trump truly is an idiot, what exactly does he think is the cause of all these lives lost in the last 3 years? I do fear that Ukraine will get shafted here with a deal to provide ores and minerals at bargain basement exchange to the US while having to give up on ever joining NATO with the lost territories staying in Russian hands and any guarantee of peace being as worthless as the last one.

Then again tomorrow Trump could say something completely different

[Uncle fester]

What a fücking cünt

[lemonhead]

But not in the least bit surprising.

[Flockwitt]

Open big mouth to sound good, walk it back. His SOP is teeeedious, boring and so effing predictable.

[Niegs]

I can't stand to watch the full press conference, the clips in here are so infuriating. Basically saying Ukraine should have rolled over? Get fucked, Donald.



If this were a Tom Clany novel, a disgruntled vet would off him (or Hegseth) for selling them down the river like it seems he's about to do.

[tabascoboy]

What a piece of shit, if Trump really wants those rare earths and metals then Ukraine has only this as leverage by the looks of it.

Trump called it an "interesting question" when asked if Ukraine is an equal party in the peace process.

Reporter: "Do you see Ukraine as an equal participant?"
Trump: "Mmm, that’s an interesting question. I think they’ll have to make peace. People are being killed, it’s a bad war, and I think they’ll have to make peace. That’s what I think."

At least Europe stands firm

[tabascoboy]

Writer here is Trump's former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (NSA)

[PornDog]

You know the world must really have gone to shit if you find yourself on the same side as, and agreeing with, John Bolton

[Sandstorm]

You know the world must really have gone to shit if you find yourself on the same side as, and agreeing with, John Bolton

Word

[Kiwias]

You know the world must really have gone to shit if you find yourself on the same side as, and agreeing with, John Bolton

We are indeed living in interesting times

[tabascoboy]

The Moldovan police stated that they found two Russian drones in the southern part of the country. One drone was found in a field near the village of Chumai in the Taraclia district, and the other exploded in a field approximately 1.5 kilometers from Ceadîr-Lunga.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador and President Maia Sandu stated that Russia only sows terror.

[Uncle fester]

You know the world must really have gone to shit if you find yourself on the same side as, and agreeing with, John Bolton

Word

First thing I thought when reading that.

[Hal Jordan]

I can't stand to watch the full press conference, the clips in here are so infuriating. Basically saying Ukraine should have rolled over? Get fucked, Donald.



If this were a Tom Clany novel, a disgruntled vet would off him (or Hegseth) for selling them down the river like it seems he's about to do.

Wasn't that the resolution of one of his novels, where the charismatic amd noble Soviet general kicks out the Politburo for orchestrating a false flag terrorist attack as an excuse to start a war?

[tabascoboy]

State TV and media in Russia of course are propaganda outles to the max, but they are besides themselves with joy - going so far as to say they are now at liberty to attack anywhere in Europe without US response under Article 5. While that likely just isn't true, the orange shitgibbon and his lackeys have deeply undermined perceptions for European and global security from aggressors with their ill-thought out public statements.

I'm sure Trump thinks he's playing some glorious game to manoeuvre all parties where he wants them, if he gets a peace deal - no matter how terrible - it's a win he can sell; if no peace results it's down to Europe and Ukraine wanting to extend the conflict...

[Uncle fester]

State TV and media in Russia of course are propaganda outles to the max, but they are besides themselves with joy - going so far as to say they are now at liberty to attack anywhere in Europe without US response under Article 5. While that likely just isn't true, the orange shitgibbon and his lackeys have deeply undermined perceptions for European and global security from aggressors with their ill-thought out public statements.

I'm sure Trump thinks he's playing some glorious game to manoeuvre all parties where he wants them, if he gets a peace deal - no matter how terrible - it's a win he can sell; if no peace results it's down to Europe and Ukraine wanting to extend the conflict...

The few sensible people left in Russia know that the Poles would be in Moscow within a week if they tried anything.

Central Europe is going to be the next powerhouse and we'll need them to counteract Turkey in the future.

[mat the expat]

The few sensible people left in Russia know that the Poles would be in Moscow within a week if they tried anything.

Central Europe is going to be the next powerhouse and we'll need them to counteract Turkey in the future.

Deserved after WWII and the carve up by Stalin

[Slick]

State TV and media in Russia of course are propaganda outles to the max, but they are besides themselves with joy - going so far as to say they are now at liberty to attack anywhere in Europe without US response under Article 5. While that likely just isn't true, the orange shitgibbon and his lackeys have deeply undermined perceptions for European and global security from aggressors with their ill-thought out public statements.

I'm sure Trump thinks he's playing some glorious game to manoeuvre all parties where he wants them, if he gets a peace deal - no matter how terrible - it's a win he can sell; if no peace results it's down to Europe and Ukraine wanting to extend the conflict...

They'd better hope Trump doesn't see any of this.

[tabascoboy]

Are none of these people talking to each other?

[Sandstorm]

Are none of these people talking to each other?

Some are on Truth, others on X. Hard to keep the overall message on point.