President Trump and US politics catchall

[TB63]

[Slick]

I understand the need for careful financial diplomacy but fuck me, that despicable cunt and his rent boy Vance should never be welcomed in any other European country ever. Starmer needs to find his balls and withdraw the invitation.

Could not agree with you more. Appalling and grisly.

Just seen it. Don’t think I could hate 2 humans more

[Slick]

I understand the need for careful financial diplomacy but fuck me, that despicable cunt and his rent boy Vance should never be welcomed in any other European country ever. Starmer needs to find his balls and withdraw the invitation.

Yeah, that was a short honeymoon for Starmer

[sturginho]

Fuck me sideways, fucking cnuts

[I like neeps]

Hopefully, with them openly siding with Russia and the economy starting to crash with sky high egg prices this is the beginning of the end. Hopefully.

[robmatic]

Hopefully, with them openly siding with Russia and the economy starting to crash with sky high egg prices this is the beginning of the end. Hopefully.

I admire your optimism, but people are idiots and we will no doubt end up with President Vance in four year's time.

[sturginho]

Hopefully, with them openly siding with Russia and the economy starting to crash with sky high egg prices this is the beginning of the end. Hopefully.

I doubt it, the cult will be loving it, sticking it to mericas enemy!

[I like neeps]

Hopefully, with them openly siding with Russia and the economy starting to crash with sky high egg prices this is the beginning of the end. Hopefully.

I admire your optimism, but people are idiots and we will no doubt end up with President Vance in four year's time.

I just don't think so - see Ron DeSanctis.

Trump's brand of Republicanism without Trump just isn't popular. Trump has a weird charisma and is quite funny - even his well that's good tv quip today morbidly funny.

Vance is just a lickspittle prick.

[Gumboot]

Trump will now use Zelensky's "opposition to a peace deal" to cut off all US military aid to Ukraine.

His base will be orgasmic that he owned the foreign libtard dictator in public.

Putin will piss himself with laughter.

Trump will prematurely declare Mission Accomplished.

The war will go on...

[Uncle fester]

Trump will now use Zelensky's "opposition to a peace deal" to cut off all US military aid to Ukraine.

His base will be orgasmic that he owned the foreign libtard dictator in public.

Putin will piss himself with laughter.

Trump will prematurely declare Mission Accomplished.

The war will go on...

Maybe that was the plan all along.

[tc27]

The better outcome is that was a show for the maga cretins..I really fucken hope so.

More likely it's apparent the world's most powerful country is run by obnoxious arseholes and we are all in alot of trouble.

Here is where I am maybe being controversial..Zelensky should have not responded to the very crude baiting from the VP. Yes is sucks to have to kiss the ring but that's just the reality of geo politics.

Also Starmer and Macron where correct to go and try and make nice. That the price we pay for disarming and relying on American goodwill.

[sockwithaticket]

It absolutely was a set up. As if it wasn't clear enough from his trip to Europe, Vance is there purely as a mouthpiece for nasty propaganda lines that have no basis in reality, but that the Republican paymasters wish to be vocalised.

[Uncle fester]

The better outcome is that was a show for the maga cretins..I really fucken hope so.

More likely it's apparent the world's most powerful country is run by obnoxious arseholes and we are all in alot of trouble.

Here is where I am maybe being controversial..Zelensky should have not responded to the very crude baiting from the VP. Yes is sucks to have to kiss the ring but that's just the reality of geo politics.

Also Starmer and Macron where correct to go and try and make nice. That the price we pay for disarming and relying on American goodwill.

Seeing that they are trying to push this narrative on social media but really, there was no deal here for Ukraine.

[I like neeps]

It absolutely was a set up. As if it wasn't clear enough from his trip to Europe, Vance is there purely as a mouthpiece for nasty propaganda lines that have no basis in reality, but that the Republican paymasters wish to be vocalised.

Interesting thr Senator Sanders has said he told Zelensky they're going to wind him up and not to take tbe bait but he did and so now he must resign.

I wonder if the Americans promised Putin as part of talks they'd get Zelensky to step down. The US do love some regime change shenanigans ...

[Yeeb]

Looks like I picked the wrong day to play PlayStation for 4 hours and not listen to any news or social media …

I am pretty aghast tbf, so much so I had to log on here outside of work hours and vent , else I’d get pretty angry. What the bloody hell was all that about ?
Massive set up
Stupid belittling ‘question’ re a suit
Provocation
Interruption
Gloating
Bullying Z to say thank you ?

Just plain madness, the most logical explanation my little brain can come up with is that it was all conjured up to force Zelensky to quit as part of Russian red lines conditions for peace. Can only imagine what macron, Starmer et all are talking about right now , even Xi. Absolute car crash tv , only with people with nukes. Even my famed black humour, can’t really joke about this kind of step toward world war 3 (which Trump mentioned several times whilst bullying). Just kinda numb right now.

[Yeeb]

It absolutely was a set up. As if it wasn't clear enough from his trip to Europe, Vance is there purely as a mouthpiece for nasty propaganda lines that have no basis in reality, but that the Republican paymasters wish to be vocalised.

Interesting thr Senator Sanders has said he told Zelensky they're going to wind him up and not to take tbe bait but he did and so now he must resign.

I wonder if the Americans promised Putin as part of talks they'd get Zelensky to step down. The US do love some regime change shenanigans ...

Yep, feels like he has put a noose round his own neck , wasn’t a time for anger . Your last sentence is what I’m thinking right now, it was like a WWF vignette

[robmatic]

I am not hugely positive about what grown up, respectable diplomacy will do when faced with a group of pricks with massive coercive power.

Some bland and noncommittal statements of support? Some summits where nothing concrete is decided?

[fishfoodie]

I think I'll go and buy about 100kg of nematodes, & scatter them all over the greens & fairways of Doonbeg !!

I'd invite some of our Scottish posters to do the same Turnberry !

Sure it's petty & low-level, but what the fuck else can we do to cause this vile animal some pain ?

It's a gnat bite, but you just know it'll infuriate him, & cost him money, & that's about all we can so; except getting down on our knees & praying for him to be struck down with the most horrible painful death ever experienced by any cunt every !

[sockwithaticket]

It absolutely was a set up. As if it wasn't clear enough from his trip to Europe, Vance is there purely as a mouthpiece for nasty propaganda lines that have no basis in reality, but that the Republican paymasters wish to be vocalised.

Interesting thr Senator Sanders has said he told Zelensky they're going to wind him up and not to take tbe bait but he did and so now he must resign.

I wonder if the Americans promised Putin as part of talks they'd get Zelensky to step down. The US do love some regime change shenanigans ...

Yep, feels like he has put a noose round his own neck , wasn’t a time for anger . Your last sentence is what I’m thinking right now, it was like a WWF vignette

What was it the time for?

His people are dying protecting themselves from an aggressor. Grotesque war crimes have been committed against the Ukrainian people, besides indiscriminate slaughter and torture of civillians, hundreds if not thousands of their children were sent back to Russia and will likely never be repatriated. All the while the West has collectively dragged its heels on adequately arming or giving usage permissions for Ukraine to really strike any decisive blows.

And now he is expected to meekly accept the insults of men who have zero intention of assisting Ukraine or working for Ukraine's interest? Fuck that. He could've been saccharine sweet, dressed in the sharpest of suits and the American right would still have disparaged and belittled him because they do not care about Ukraine and are led by men who wish to be able to rule and conduct themselves as Putin does.

[topofthemoon]

You're risking World War 3 and you would have been defeated within 2 weeks if not for America - they are directly regurgitating favoured Kremlin talking points.

It's depressing that this is clearly what a lot of people want at the top, setting the tone. No morals, just what is in it for me? Right down to the being outraged at not receiving constant public thanks in the meeting.

[geordie_6]

I am not hugely positive about what grown up, respectable diplomacy will do when faced with a group of pricks with massive coercive power.

Some bland and noncommittal statements of support? Some summits where nothing concrete is decided?

Absolutely, there's no scope for it because you just do not know which way the cockwomble is going to go with matters.

[Margin__Walker]

Yep. I don't think meekly sitting there and taking it plays well domestically. He's in a shit place with few good options, but probably has to show a minimum level of backbone.

The whole regime change in Ukraine seems like a huge red herring. There's not a world I can see where a compliant regime is installed in Kiev that will roll over. Ukrainian's may be tired, but they hate Russia. In terms of popularity, someone like Zaluzhnyi would be next in line. Hardly seems the type of bloke that's going to sign in country away in some worthless deal.

[Kiwias]

Timothy Snyder offers a calm and measured response to the shitshow in the WH

https://snyder.substack.com/p/five-fail ... dium=email

[Thor Sedan]

So it is just the nukes then?

Russia can't even take Ukraine after 3 years - what hope do they have of taking on the whole of Europe?

Army sizes mean nothing now....flood the skies with drones and boom - you have more destructive force than an army of 200k boots on the ground.

......but the nukes.

[Slick]

For the first time in my life I feel genuinely scared about what is happening in the world. This is a full on shit show

[Uncle fester]

Graham was in very quick with the "we can't work with him" narrative. It's almost as if he knew in advance that something was being cooked up.

[Niegs]

Maybe it's too simplistic to say, but time for the world to stop leaning so much on America? Is that possible? Just a few million votes one way or the other in a country with 350m (1/3-ish of those eligible didn't bother?), swings the path of world politics.

Can Europe and friends ramp things up to fill the gaps, and even launch themselves forward?

[Gumboot]

Maybe it's too simplistic to say, but time for the world to stop leaning so much on America? Is that possible? Just a few million votes one way or the other in a country with 350m (1/3-ish of those eligible didn't bother?), swings the path of world politics.

Can Europe and friends ramp things up to fill the gaps, and even launch themselves forward?

Macron was derided by other European leaders for promoting this very approach for years. Not so much derision nowadays.

[Slick]

If anyone is interested in the psych of Putin and Russia, I’ve literally this minute finished a brilliant novel called The Wizard of the Kremlin by Giuliano da Empoli.

The penultimate chapter was spookily prescient about the last couple of days

[Uncle fester]

If anyone is interested in the psych of Putin and Russia, I’ve literally this minute finished a brilliant novel called The Wizard of the Kremlin by Giuliano da Empoli.

The penultimate chapter was spookily prescient about the last couple of days

Don't leave us hanging

[Punter15]

If anyone is interested in the psych of Putin and Russia, I’ve literally this minute finished a brilliant novel called The Wizard of the Kremlin by Giuliano da Empoli.

The penultimate chapter was spookily prescient about the last couple of days

A pair of morons who are too stupid to realise how stupid they are sign power over to their sworn enemy because it somehow not only makes them look tough to their equally moronic hate cult, but there’s a few quid in it too?

[Paddington Bear]

Maybe it's too simplistic to say, but time for the world to stop leaning so much on America? Is that possible? Just a few million votes one way or the other in a country with 350m (1/3-ish of those eligible didn't bother?), swings the path of world politics.

Can Europe and friends ramp things up to fill the gaps, and even launch themselves forward?

Macron was derided by other European leaders for promoting this very approach for years. Not so much derision nowadays.

Too late now. A modest increase in defence spending particularly around industry in 2014 followed by a more substantial boost in 2022 may have given us the chance to run a different course. Plus of course a weaning or never being so beholden to Russian energy in the first place. From where we are now we can give Ukraine nothing but false hope, nothing but empty encouragement to send more men to die.

What Trump has done is a shameful abandonment of a nation that has shown so much courage and dignity in the face of unspeakable atrocities, but it’s too easy to pretend it is all his fault when we have done nearly nothing to allow another path to be taken bar offer empty words. I remember listening to an Indian general as Ukraine invaded tell a Ukrainian that the west would fight to the last Ukrainian, clearly correct then and clearly correct now.

Ukraine shoulders some responsibility as well. I went to a talk by a senior member of their elite this week who had the following solutions:

1. Britain to lead a task force of the Baltic, Scandis and Benelux in direct war with Russia
2. France to pile in once the front is stabilised
3. Risk of nuclear war to be ignored as ‘it won’t happen’
4. Peace to come from Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory and Russia to be dismembered into 100 (genuinely) states along ethnic lines.

They have of course been led up the garden path but still having any dream of peace that doesn’t involve a serious think about what territory they can give up is sadly totally delusional and a lot of us left this talk very disillusioned. Can’t help but feel a total collapse is coming

[GuLi]

Timothy Snyder offers a calm and measured response to the shitshow in the WH

https://snyder.substack.com/p/five-fail ... dium=email

Snyder's analysis of the shortfalls of the path those sh*tstains have chosen is convincing, all the more because all his points are mostly obvious.
Consequently, why O f*ing why ? Is it really possible that there isn't a single mature, level-headed, informed enough adviser in their entourage anymore ? Or that the few remaining sane voices are drowned by the braying mob (Hegseth ! Patel ! Noem ! )? Even a Bolton is appalled, ffs. The word "treason" is already there or thereabout in the opinions of some very hard right commentators.
I mean, the only two possible outcomes of their vile behaviour (ceasefire with zero guarantee and leaving Ukraine and Europe on their own) are so aligned with Putin's interests, with not that much in them for the US or even Drumpf himself, I found myself wondering if there was something in the kompromat theory after all.
The whole mess is doing my head in, it's scary.

[I like neeps]

Maybe it's too simplistic to say, but time for the world to stop leaning so much on America? Is that possible? Just a few million votes one way or the other in a country with 350m (1/3-ish of those eligible didn't bother?), swings the path of world politics.

Can Europe and friends ramp things up to fill the gaps, and even launch themselves forward?

Macron was derided by other European leaders for promoting this very approach for years. Not so much derision nowadays.

Too late now. A modest increase in defence spending particularly around industry in 2014 followed by a more substantial boost in 2022 may have given us the chance to run a different course. Plus of course a weaning or never being so beholden to Russian energy in the first place. From where we are now we can give Ukraine nothing but false hope, nothing but empty encouragement to send more men to die.

What Trump has done is a shameful abandonment of a nation that has shown so much courage and dignity in the face of unspeakable atrocities, but it’s too easy to pretend it is all his fault when we have done nearly nothing to allow another path to be taken bar offer empty words. I remember listening to an Indian general as Ukraine invaded tell a Ukrainian that the west would fight to the last Ukrainian, clearly correct then and clearly correct now.

Ukraine shoulders some responsibility as well. I went to a talk by a senior member of their elite this week who had the following solutions:

1. Britain to lead a task force of the Baltic, Scandis and Benelux in direct war with Russia
2. France to pile in once the front is stabilised
3. Risk of nuclear war to be ignored as ‘it won’t happen’
4. Peace to come from Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory and Russia to be dismembered into 100 (genuinely) states along ethnic lines.

They have of course been led up the garden path but still having any dream of peace that doesn’t involve a serious think about what territory they can give up is sadly totally delusional and a lot of us left this talk very disillusioned. Can’t help but feel a total collapse is coming

As much as Vance is a cock he is correct that most wars end by negotiation and Ukraine has neither the man power nor support to reclaim the lands Russia have who are now advancing daily. Europe does have to wake up a bit and realise that.

[sockwithaticket]

Timothy Snyder offers a calm and measured response to the shitshow in the WH

https://snyder.substack.com/p/five-fail ... dium=email

Snyder's analysis of the shortfalls of the path those sh*tstains have chosen is convincing, all the more because all his points are mostly obvious.
Consequently, why O f*ing why ? Is it really possible that there isn't a single mature, level-headed, informed enough adviser in their entourage anymore ? Or that the few remaining sane voices are drowned by the braying mob (Hegseth ! Patel ! Noem ! )? Even a Bolton is appalled, ffs. The word "treason" is already there or thereabout in the opinions of some very hard right commentators.
I mean, the only two possible outcomes of their vile behaviour (ceasefire with zero guarantee and leaving Ukraine and Europe on their own) are so aligned with Putin's interests, with not that much in them for the US or even Drumpf himself, I found myself wondering if there was something in the kompromat theory after all.
The whole mess is doing my head in, it's scary.

First time around Trump still needed the Republican party and its machinery which still contained a number of (somewhat) normal Republicans. He also wasn't particularly interested in being POTUS. He liked the status trappings, but had no desire to govern and so was content to be suggested cabinet members whom the Republicans hoped would be 'adults in the room'. As we know, the adults in the room did a lot to curb his most impulsive and braindead ideas, which the animated fat suit hated because he doesn't like being told no.

With the Republican party having transformed into the MAGA party, there are no more 'adults in the room', such people have either left, been moved out of the way or shown themselves to be more interested in power and progression than the state of their party. They can't get elected without Trump's favour, they can't get his favour without being as conspicuously base and bigoted as he is or giving his arse a right tonguing. He might not be any more interested in governing than he was (how many days spent golfing already and charging the Secret Service staying at Mar A Largo to the government credit card), but he also will not be told no or circumvented like he was last time and he has free reign to pick whoever he wants, so you end up with a collection of loons and/or sycophants.

[_Os_]

Maybe it's too simplistic to say, but time for the world to stop leaning so much on America? Is that possible? Just a few million votes one way or the other in a country with 350m (1/3-ish of those eligible didn't bother?), swings the path of world politics.

Can Europe and friends ramp things up to fill the gaps, and even launch themselves forward?

Macron was derided by other European leaders for promoting this very approach for years. Not so much derision nowadays.

Too late now. A modest increase in defence spending particularly around industry in 2014 followed by a more substantial boost in 2022 may have given us the chance to run a different course. Plus of course a weaning or never being so beholden to Russian energy in the first place. From where we are now we can give Ukraine nothing but false hope, nothing but empty encouragement to send more men to die.

What Trump has done is a shameful abandonment of a nation that has shown so much courage and dignity in the face of unspeakable atrocities, but it’s too easy to pretend it is all his fault when we have done nearly nothing to allow another path to be taken bar offer empty words. I remember listening to an Indian general as Ukraine invaded tell a Ukrainian that the west would fight to the last Ukrainian, clearly correct then and clearly correct now.

Ukraine shoulders some responsibility as well. I went to a talk by a senior member of their elite this week who had the following solutions:

1. Britain to lead a task force of the Baltic, Scandis and Benelux in direct war with Russia
2. France to pile in once the front is stabilised
3. Risk of nuclear war to be ignored as ‘it won’t happen’
4. Peace to come from Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory and Russia to be dismembered into 100 (genuinely) states along ethnic lines.

They have of course been led up the garden path but still having any dream of peace that doesn’t involve a serious think about what territory they can give up is sadly totally delusional and a lot of us left this talk very disillusioned. Can’t help but feel a total collapse is coming

There's no indication Putin stops at Ukraine. If there was a way for Europe to back out of the entire thing they would've. It's not just Ukraine which has been led up the garden path.

Trump has done immense damage. He is beyond reason and irrational, both Macron and Starmer corrected him on his $350bn figure, then he again repeated it too Zelensky who was so shouted down by that point he remained silent. Trump's biggest failing is he has displayed weakness, what happened yesterday was the latest display of weakness he mistakes for strength. His commitment to article 5 looks limited at best, the nuclear deterrent isn't credible now. He likes Putin and gets on well with him.

Zelensky is a moderate, he wanted peace before the full scale invasion and didn't even mobilise his troops before the invasion because he was so committed to that. He's a Russian speaker and ethnic Jew, he's not a diehard Ukrainian nationalist. As you discovered at the talk, there's Ukrainians happy to go to the last Ukrainian too (not convinced Zelensky is one of those). Zelensky reached the position of giving up land to Russia and resources to the US, but Trump wanted rump Ukraine to remain unprotected. How likely is it Zelensky could sell that to Ukrainians? Would Putin accept and definitely not have another go?

Because the US has shifted all the focus onto Zelensky and Ukraine, not many people are asking "would Putin ever accept any of these deals?". The answer is he may of if he had been forced to negotiate rather than immediately given everything and shown that the US is weak. Putin now knows exactly what the US commitment to Europe is. Every time they meet Trump, Russia's best analysts are there with Putin mining him and plugging that into their scenario planning. To a certain type of man weakness is extremely provocative, Putin isn't agreeing to anything now.

Russia is now running a war economy and all in has maybe around 1.5m men under arms (active and those it can call on). If Russia isn't bled in Ukraine the gamble is they come off a war footing and don't try again. The additional gamble would be if they go again it's in Ukraine. I know of no wargame where the Baltics survive a Russian invasion even with US forces involved.

I may make a bigger post/s about this on the other thread. But because the nuclear deterrent now isn't credible (indeed there's doubt about any US support) the worst case scenario now ends in a nuclear exchange in central/eastern Europe. The best case is the one Trump just rejected and we don't even know if Putin would accept.

[Paddington Bear]

Macron was derided by other European leaders for promoting this very approach for years. Not so much derision nowadays.

Too late now. A modest increase in defence spending particularly around industry in 2014 followed by a more substantial boost in 2022 may have given us the chance to run a different course. Plus of course a weaning or never being so beholden to Russian energy in the first place. From where we are now we can give Ukraine nothing but false hope, nothing but empty encouragement to send more men to die.

What Trump has done is a shameful abandonment of a nation that has shown so much courage and dignity in the face of unspeakable atrocities, but it’s too easy to pretend it is all his fault when we have done nearly nothing to allow another path to be taken bar offer empty words. I remember listening to an Indian general as Ukraine invaded tell a Ukrainian that the west would fight to the last Ukrainian, clearly correct then and clearly correct now.

Ukraine shoulders some responsibility as well. I went to a talk by a senior member of their elite this week who had the following solutions:

1. Britain to lead a task force of the Baltic, Scandis and Benelux in direct war with Russia
2. France to pile in once the front is stabilised
3. Risk of nuclear war to be ignored as ‘it won’t happen’
4. Peace to come from Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory and Russia to be dismembered into 100 (genuinely) states along ethnic lines.

They have of course been led up the garden path but still having any dream of peace that doesn’t involve a serious think about what territory they can give up is sadly totally delusional and a lot of us left this talk very disillusioned. Can’t help but feel a total collapse is coming

As much as Vance is a cock he is correct that most wars end by negotiation and Ukraine has neither the man power nor support to reclaim the lands Russia have who are now advancing daily. Europe does have to wake up a bit and realise that.

Absolutely this, sadly we seem to have no shortage of politicians whose only war reference points are the Second World war and Star Wars

[Margin__Walker]

Macron was derided by other European leaders for promoting this very approach for years. Not so much derision nowadays.

Too late now. A modest increase in defence spending particularly around industry in 2014 followed by a more substantial boost in 2022 may have given us the chance to run a different course. Plus of course a weaning or never being so beholden to Russian energy in the first place. From where we are now we can give Ukraine nothing but false hope, nothing but empty encouragement to send more men to die.

What Trump has done is a shameful abandonment of a nation that has shown so much courage and dignity in the face of unspeakable atrocities, but it’s too easy to pretend it is all his fault when we have done nearly nothing to allow another path to be taken bar offer empty words. I remember listening to an Indian general as Ukraine invaded tell a Ukrainian that the west would fight to the last Ukrainian, clearly correct then and clearly correct now.

Ukraine shoulders some responsibility as well. I went to a talk by a senior member of their elite this week who had the following solutions:

1. Britain to lead a task force of the Baltic, Scandis and Benelux in direct war with Russia
2. France to pile in once the front is stabilised
3. Risk of nuclear war to be ignored as ‘it won’t happen’
4. Peace to come from Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory and Russia to be dismembered into 100 (genuinely) states along ethnic lines.

They have of course been led up the garden path but still having any dream of peace that doesn’t involve a serious think about what territory they can give up is sadly totally delusional and a lot of us left this talk very disillusioned. Can’t help but feel a total collapse is coming

As much as Vance is a cock he is correct that most wars end by negotiation and Ukraine has neither the man power nor support to reclaim the lands Russia have who are now advancing daily. Europe does have to wake up a bit and realise that.

Of course wars end in negotiation.

There's negotiation and then there's complete capitulation. Ukraine isn't realistically after it's lost land. They know that's not on the table. Russia is advancing. Ukraine will be after a settlement that doesn't involve surrendering much more land (which is what Russia will demand). That and some kind of mechanism in place to ensure Russia doesn't just roll in again in a few months.

That's the issue.

[Paddington Bear]

Macron was derided by other European leaders for promoting this very approach for years. Not so much derision nowadays.

Too late now. A modest increase in defence spending particularly around industry in 2014 followed by a more substantial boost in 2022 may have given us the chance to run a different course. Plus of course a weaning or never being so beholden to Russian energy in the first place. From where we are now we can give Ukraine nothing but false hope, nothing but empty encouragement to send more men to die.

What Trump has done is a shameful abandonment of a nation that has shown so much courage and dignity in the face of unspeakable atrocities, but it’s too easy to pretend it is all his fault when we have done nearly nothing to allow another path to be taken bar offer empty words. I remember listening to an Indian general as Ukraine invaded tell a Ukrainian that the west would fight to the last Ukrainian, clearly correct then and clearly correct now.

Ukraine shoulders some responsibility as well. I went to a talk by a senior member of their elite this week who had the following solutions:

1. Britain to lead a task force of the Baltic, Scandis and Benelux in direct war with Russia
2. France to pile in once the front is stabilised
3. Risk of nuclear war to be ignored as ‘it won’t happen’
4. Peace to come from Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory and Russia to be dismembered into 100 (genuinely) states along ethnic lines.

They have of course been led up the garden path but still having any dream of peace that doesn’t involve a serious think about what territory they can give up is sadly totally delusional and a lot of us left this talk very disillusioned. Can’t help but feel a total collapse is coming

There's no indication Putin stops at Ukraine. If there was a way for Europe to back out of the entire thing they would've. It's not just Ukraine which has been led up the garden path.

Trump has done immense damage. He is beyond reason and irrational, both Macron and Starmer corrected him on his $350bn figure, then he again repeated it too Zelensky who was so shouted down by that point he remained silent. Trump's biggest failing is he has displayed weakness, what happened yesterday was the latest display of weakness he mistakes for strength. His commitment to article 5 looks limited at best, the nuclear deterrent isn't credible now. He likes Putin and gets on well with him.

Zelensky is a moderate, he wanted peace before the full scale invasion and didn't even mobilise his troops before the invasion because he was so committed to that. He's a Russian speaker and ethnic Jew, he's not a diehard Ukrainian nationalist. As you discovered at the talk, there's Ukrainians happy to go to the last Ukrainian too (not convinced Zelensky is one of those). Zelensky reached the position of giving up land to Russia and resources to the US, but Trump wanted rump Ukraine to remain unprotected. How likely is it Zelensky could sell that to Ukrainians? Would Putin accept and definitely not have another go?

Because the US has shifted all the focus onto Zelensky and Ukraine, not many people are asking "would Putin ever accept any of these deals?". The answer is he may of if he had been forced to negotiate rather than immediately given everything and shown that the US is weak. Putin now knows exactly what the US commitment to Europe is. Every time they meet Trump, Russia's best analysts are there with Putin mining him and plugging that into their scenario planning. To a certain type of man weakness is extremely provocative, Putin isn't agreeing to anything now.

Russia is now running a war economy and all in has maybe around 1.5m men under arms (active and those it can call on). If Russia isn't bled in Ukraine the gamble is they come off a war footing and don't try again. The additional gamble would be if they go again it's in Ukraine. I know of no wargame where the Baltics survive a Russian invasion even with US forces involved.

I may make a bigger post/s about this on the other thread. But because the nuclear deterrent now isn't credible (indeed there's doubt about any US support) the worst case scenario now ends in a nuclear exchange in central/eastern Europe. The best case is the one Trump just rejected and we don't even know if Putin would accept.

I actually agree with a lot of what you’re saying, the question is what’s your solution? Europe does not have the defence industry to keep Ukraine in this fight. We don’t have the militaries to hold a Ukrainian rump. Without American help the Ukrainian military is in serious danger of a rapid collapse that gives Russia vast gains suddenly (the parallel that keeps crossing my mind is the Germany Army at the end of the First World War). We’re in no position to bleed the Russians

[_Os_]

Too late now. A modest increase in defence spending particularly around industry in 2014 followed by a more substantial boost in 2022 may have given us the chance to run a different course. Plus of course a weaning or never being so beholden to Russian energy in the first place. From where we are now we can give Ukraine nothing but false hope, nothing but empty encouragement to send more men to die.

What Trump has done is a shameful abandonment of a nation that has shown so much courage and dignity in the face of unspeakable atrocities, but it’s too easy to pretend it is all his fault when we have done nearly nothing to allow another path to be taken bar offer empty words. I remember listening to an Indian general as Ukraine invaded tell a Ukrainian that the west would fight to the last Ukrainian, clearly correct then and clearly correct now.

Ukraine shoulders some responsibility as well. I went to a talk by a senior member of their elite this week who had the following solutions:

1. Britain to lead a task force of the Baltic, Scandis and Benelux in direct war with Russia
2. France to pile in once the front is stabilised
3. Risk of nuclear war to be ignored as ‘it won’t happen’
4. Peace to come from Ukraine reclaiming all occupied territory and Russia to be dismembered into 100 (genuinely) states along ethnic lines.

They have of course been led up the garden path but still having any dream of peace that doesn’t involve a serious think about what territory they can give up is sadly totally delusional and a lot of us left this talk very disillusioned. Can’t help but feel a total collapse is coming

There's no indication Putin stops at Ukraine. If there was a way for Europe to back out of the entire thing they would've. It's not just Ukraine which has been led up the garden path.

Trump has done immense damage. He is beyond reason and irrational, both Macron and Starmer corrected him on his $350bn figure, then he again repeated it too Zelensky who was so shouted down by that point he remained silent. Trump's biggest failing is he has displayed weakness, what happened yesterday was the latest display of weakness he mistakes for strength. His commitment to article 5 looks limited at best, the nuclear deterrent isn't credible now. He likes Putin and gets on well with him.

Zelensky is a moderate, he wanted peace before the full scale invasion and didn't even mobilise his troops before the invasion because he was so committed to that. He's a Russian speaker and ethnic Jew, he's not a diehard Ukrainian nationalist. As you discovered at the talk, there's Ukrainians happy to go to the last Ukrainian too (not convinced Zelensky is one of those). Zelensky reached the position of giving up land to Russia and resources to the US, but Trump wanted rump Ukraine to remain unprotected. How likely is it Zelensky could sell that to Ukrainians? Would Putin accept and definitely not have another go?

Because the US has shifted all the focus onto Zelensky and Ukraine, not many people are asking "would Putin ever accept any of these deals?". The answer is he may of if he had been forced to negotiate rather than immediately given everything and shown that the US is weak. Putin now knows exactly what the US commitment to Europe is. Every time they meet Trump, Russia's best analysts are there with Putin mining him and plugging that into their scenario planning. To a certain type of man weakness is extremely provocative, Putin isn't agreeing to anything now.

Russia is now running a war economy and all in has maybe around 1.5m men under arms (active and those it can call on). If Russia isn't bled in Ukraine the gamble is they come off a war footing and don't try again. The additional gamble would be if they go again it's in Ukraine. I know of no wargame where the Baltics survive a Russian invasion even with US forces involved.

I may make a bigger post/s about this on the other thread. But because the nuclear deterrent now isn't credible (indeed there's doubt about any US support) the worst case scenario now ends in a nuclear exchange in central/eastern Europe. The best case is the one Trump just rejected and we don't even know if Putin would accept.

I actually agree with a lot of what you’re saying, the question is what’s your solution? Europe does not have the defence industry to keep Ukraine in this fight. We don’t have the militaries to hold a Ukrainian rump. Without American help the Ukrainian military is in serious danger of a rapid collapse that gives Russia vast gains suddenly (the parallel that keeps crossing my mind is the Germany Army at the end of the First World War). We’re in no position to bleed the Russians

In the UK at least there are people with power aware of the real situation, you can tell that by what some people in the media are saying who are connected. It's definitely not all idiots who think this is WW2.

As I posted on the other thread back in November the best case was (still is) Ukraine giving up land, conflict termination (not a frozen conflict), and Finlandisation. Zelensky I think could still get Ukraine to that point, if Zelensky is forced out someone more moderate does not replace him. Trump has somehow got into some mad conversation over minerals, getting $350bn and even making money on that and getting $500bn (Ukraine's gdp is $170bn), his admiration of Putin, and his refusal to give Zelensky anything because of his personal beef. Europe will take any deal capable of working. Putin who knows, but I suspect it's all a bit pointless and he declines any deal.

There's no option but to continuously keep trying with talks though. It'll always be a worthwhile option. Maybe one side changes their mind.

Being totally cold about it, Europe needs minimum two years to prepare. Which means European NATO maintaining/increasing support (what the London summit will probably end up being about). Full mobilisation in Ukraine, prepping Ukraine for Stalingrad level urban fighting and partisan warfare. Their current ratio is about 7 Russians killed for every 1 Ukrainian, which does give them a chance. Europe can start trying to re-establish a nuclear deterrent, Macron has offered France's weapons as a European nuclear umbrella (this would be a change in French doctrine), that will not be enough they need to demonstrate capability through live testing too.