President Trump and US politics catchall

[Flockwitt]

I don't think it's generally realised how badly this is going to screw with global supply chains. Companies have been getting out of China since over a decade now. But all the escape routes like Vietnam got whacked as well. And regardless of your product or where it is made, if it moves up a couple of prices brackets sales halve or worse, don't sell. We're not talking 3 or 4% inflation here. And that's just for starters on the front end, let alone the cost of components for all sorts of stuff. This is serious immediate cost of living impact for all Americans and loss of sales for a huge number of US companies - years before any imagined benefit will come to fruition.

[Kiwias]

I don't think it's generally realised how badly this is going to screw with global supply chains. Companies have been getting out of China since over a decade now. But all the escape routes like Vietnam got whacked as well. And regardless of your product or where it is made, if it moves up a couple of prices brackets sales halve or worse, don't sell. We're not talking 3 or 4% inflation here. And that's just for starters on the front end, let alone the cost of components for all sorts of stuff. This is serious immediate cost of living impact for all Americans and loss of sales for a huge number of US companies - years before any imagined benefit will come to fruition.

And the MAGA faithful will be blaming Biden and Obama all through this rough journey

[geordie_6]

I don't think it's generally realised how badly this is going to screw with global supply chains. Companies have been getting out of China since over a decade now. But all the escape routes like Vietnam got whacked as well. And regardless of your product or where it is made, if it moves up a couple of prices brackets sales halve or worse, don't sell. We're not talking 3 or 4% inflation here. And that's just for starters on the front end, let alone the cost of components for all sorts of stuff. This is serious immediate cost of living impact for all Americans and loss of sales for a huge number of US companies - years before any imagined benefit will come to fruition.

And the MAGA faithful will be blaming Biden and Obama all through this rough journey

They'll blame Clinton and Jimmy Carter if they can.

[Guy Smiley]

https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/04/03/do ... ce-menace/

The administration’s announcement included figures that it claimed were the tariffs that other countries impose on the US. Analysts struggled to understand where these figures came from, with editor of The Yale Review and former financial journalist for The New Yorker James Surowiecki appearing to eventually work it out:

They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country’s exports to us. So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

Stable genius

[Kiwias]

https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/04/03/do ... ce-menace/

The administration’s announcement included figures that it claimed were the tariffs that other countries impose on the US. Analysts struggled to understand where these figures came from, with editor of The Yale Review and former financial journalist for The New Yorker James Surowiecki appearing to eventually work it out:

They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country’s exports to us. So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

Stable genius

It is outstanding in its simplicity.

[Biffer]

Good to see that 10% tariff on the Hearst and MacDonald Islands.

You know, those uninhabited islands just off Antarctica

[geordie_6]

https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/04/03/do ... ce-menace/

The administration’s announcement included figures that it claimed were the tariffs that other countries impose on the US. Analysts struggled to understand where these figures came from, with editor of The Yale Review and former financial journalist for The New Yorker James Surowiecki appearing to eventually work it out:

They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country’s exports to us. So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

Stable genius

I was waiting for something like this to appear, evidence that the numbers on his little game show board were an absolute crock of shite.

[tabascoboy]

White House Explains Why Russia Not Included in Trump's New Tariffs

President Donald Trump announced plans for sweeping reciprocal tariffs Wednesday, saying "our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, plundered" by other nations.

Of the 180 countries, including U.S. allies, that are now being hit with retaliatory tariffs, Russia isn't on the list.

Following Trump's Rose Garden announcement, a White House official told NOTUS' Jasmine Wright that Russia is "not on this list because sanctions from the Ukraine war have already rendered trade between the two countries as zero."

War-torn Ukraine will face a 10 percent retaliatory tariff. In addition, many other former Soviet satellites and republics are also on Trump's list.

Belarus, Cuba and North Korea, other countries that face US sanctions, also weren't hit with reciprocal tariffs.

However, Iran and Syria, also facing heavy embargoes and sanctions, were hit with additional tariffs on Wednesday of 10 and 40 percent, respectively.

Newsweek has reached out to the Treasury Department on Wednesday night for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/white-house-ex ... fs-2054548

[Sandstorm]

Good to see that 10% tariff on the Hearst and MacDonald Islands.

You know, those uninhabited islands just off Antarctica

They’re going mining in Antarctica next.

[Tichtheid]

I’m not going to pretend to understand how all this works but it seems to me that it’s the importer that pays the tariff, not the exporter. This 10% or whatever increase will then be passed on to the consumer. If they buy at the inflated price then surely that’s more money going to the exporter? If they don’t buy it then the vendor in USA goes out of business
The US can’t suddenly produce a billion dollars worth of seafood, one of Indonesia's exports, so either it beomes more expensive for the consumers, which takes excess cash out of the US economy, or that part of the economy shuts down.

As I say, I don’t pretend to understand this this so I’m happy to be corrected on it.

[laurent]

I’m not going to pretend to understand how all this works but it seems to me that it’s the importer that pays the tariff, not the exporter. This 10% or whatever increase will then be passed on to the consumer. If they buy at the inflated price then surely that’s more money going to the exporter? If they don’t buy it then the vendor in USA goes out of business
The US can’t suddenly produce a billion dollars worth of seafood, one of Indonesia's exports, so either it beomes more expensive for the consumers, which takes excess cash out of the US economy, or that part of the economy shuts down.

As I say, I don’t pretend to understand this this so I’m happy to be corrected on it.

it's a loss to all consumer + producer + most likely the state in this case due to recession.

[Sandstorm]

I’m not going to pretend to understand how all this works but it seems to me that it’s the importer that pays the tariff, not the exporter. This 10% or whatever increase will then be passed on to the consumer. If they buy at the inflated price then surely that’s more money going to the exporter? If they don’t buy it then the vendor in USA goes out of business
The US can’t suddenly produce a billion dollars worth of seafood, one of Indonesia's exports, so either it beomes more expensive for the consumers, which takes excess cash out of the US economy, or that part of the economy shuts down.

As I say, I don’t pretend to understand this this so I’m happy to be corrected on it.

it's a loss to all consumer + producer + most likely the state in this case due to recession.

Yup, it’s cutting off your nose to spite your stupid, orange face.

[tabascoboy]

White House Explains Why Russia Not Included in Trump's New Tariffs

President Donald Trump announced plans for sweeping reciprocal tariffs Wednesday, saying "our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, plundered" by other nations.

Of the 180 countries, including U.S. allies, that are now being hit with retaliatory tariffs, Russia isn't on the list.

Following Trump's Rose Garden announcement, a White House official told NOTUS' Jasmine Wright that Russia is "not on this list because sanctions from the Ukraine war have already rendered trade between the two countries as zero."

War-torn Ukraine will face a 10 percent retaliatory tariff. In addition, many other former Soviet satellites and republics are also on Trump's list.

Belarus, Cuba and North Korea, other countries that face US sanctions, also weren't hit with reciprocal tariffs.

However, Iran and Syria, also facing heavy embargoes and sanctions, were hit with additional tariffs on Wednesday of 10 and 40 percent, respectively.

Newsweek has reached out to the Treasury Department on Wednesday night for comment.

https://www.newsweek.com/white-house-ex ... fs-2054548

Update to this...

Axios refutes the White House's claims that there is no trade with russia.

According to the publication, although the turnover between the US and russia has fallen 10 times (from $35 billion in 2021 to $3.5 billion in 2023), it still exists.

[laurent]

I’m not going to pretend to understand how all this works but it seems to me that it’s the importer that pays the tariff, not the exporter. This 10% or whatever increase will then be passed on to the consumer. If they buy at the inflated price then surely that’s more money going to the exporter? If they don’t buy it then the vendor in USA goes out of business
The US can’t suddenly produce a billion dollars worth of seafood, one of Indonesia's exports, so either it beomes more expensive for the consumers, which takes excess cash out of the US economy, or that part of the economy shuts down.

As I say, I don’t pretend to understand this this so I’m happy to be corrected on it.

it's a loss to all consumer + producer + most likely the state in this case due to recession.

Yup, it’s cutting off your nose to spite your stupid, fat, orange face.

Fixed

[Flockwitt]

I’m not going to pretend to understand how all this works but it seems to me that it’s the importer that pays the tariff, not the exporter. This 10% or whatever increase will then be passed on to the consumer. If they buy at the inflated price then surely that’s more money going to the exporter? If they don’t buy it then the vendor in USA goes out of business
The US can’t suddenly produce a billion dollars worth of seafood, one of Indonesia's exports, so either it beomes more expensive for the consumers, which takes excess cash out of the US economy, or that part of the economy shuts down.

As I say, I don’t pretend to understand this this so I’m happy to be corrected on it.

There are different ways supply chains work, it isn't always as linear as you are stating depending on the relationship between who makes, ships and sells the product. Think of an iphone, it's made OEM in China and gets whacked with over 50% duties on arrival. That's your company that's having to pay the additional cost, not some nebulous third party - and huge amount of business is done this way - and you can't just pass it all on to the consumer as I make the following point.

For anyone and anybody regardless of where the profit centers are - higher price means less sales. You are always playing the balancing game of profit margin vs. quanity of sales. But let's say we are using the scenario you've described. Suppose you export to the US a kids toy at $9.99 and the tarrifs push you up to the $19.99 sales bracket - you will sell half of what you did before (just as an example) because you are now providing goods at a higher price and fewer people are prepared to pay for them at that price. So you are exporting to the US. You make $2.00/pc. Your sales are down because of the high price, though your profit margin is the same, so you are losing money big time. Now it may be everybody is in the same boat so your competitors have to sell at a higher price too, so sales are down for everybody a bit but people are still buying the same relative to whoever you're up against. Okay, you can deal with that. But what happens when the playing field is not level like this situation with variable tarrifs/country. Then some companies are being absolutely screwed.

[Sandstorm]

New Dems slogan: "Tariffs are Taxes!!"

Of course they're too nice/dumb to use it on the MAGAtts.

[Yeeb]

Some very interesting maths there from Trump , even funnier is that most Americans will beleive his clipboard.

Uk got off light with only a 10% whack, means overnight v a lot of countries we’ve become 10%+ cheaper for an American buyer

Quite astounding how quickly Trump has burnt bridges and goodwill with the entire rest of the world.

[Sandstorm]

Uk got off light with only a 10% whack, means overnight v a lot of countries we’ve become 10%+ cheaper for an American buyer

He's got his upcoming meeting with King Charles to protect.

[Yeeb]

Uk got off light with only a 10% whack, means overnight v a lot of countries we’ve become 10%+ cheaper for an American buyer

He's got his upcoming meeting with King Charles to protect.

He will snub the king and that meeting won’t happen , Don needs to show he’s more important than the king

[Yeeb]

Media scaremongering as usual, ‘ftse plunges as Starmer says tariffs will hurt Britain ‘ cries the telegraph

FTSE now down 1.35%, at the lower end of a normal days negative movement . Five percent drop would be a plunge , most stuff has already long been priced in as usual.

Dax down 1.7, cac 2.1, fx rate movements seem under 2 % as well, ho hum

[Tichtheid]

I’m not going to pretend to understand how all this works but it seems to me that it’s the importer that pays the tariff, not the exporter. This 10% or whatever increase will then be passed on to the consumer. If they buy at the inflated price then surely that’s more money going to the exporter? If they don’t buy it then the vendor in USA goes out of business
The US can’t suddenly produce a billion dollars worth of seafood, one of Indonesia's exports, so either it beomes more expensive for the consumers, which takes excess cash out of the US economy, or that part of the economy shuts down.

As I say, I don’t pretend to understand this this so I’m happy to be corrected on it.

There are different ways supply chains work, it isn't always as linear as you are stating depending on the relationship between who makes, ships and sells the product. Think of an iphone, it's made OEM in China and gets whacked with over 50% duties on arrival. That's your company that's having to pay the additional cost, not some nebulous third party - and huge amount of business is done this way - and you can't just pass it all on to the consumer as I make the following point.

For anyone and anybody regardless of where the profit centers are - higher price means less sales. You are always playing the balancing game of profit margin vs. quanity of sales. But let's say we are using the scenario you've described. Suppose you export to the US a kids toy at $9.99 and the tarrifs push you up to the $19.99 sales bracket - you will sell half of what you did before (just as an example) because you are now providing goods at a higher price and fewer people are prepared to pay for them at that price. So you are exporting to the US. You make $2.00/pc. Your sales are down because of the high price, though your profit margin is the same, so you are losing money big time. Now it may be everybody is in the same boat so your competitors have to sell at a higher price too, so sales are down for everybody a bit but people are still buying the same relative to whoever you're up against. Okay, you can deal with that. But what happens when the playing field is not level like this situation with variable tarrifs/country. Then some companies are being absolutely screwed.

Thanks. Your post made me think of Fender and other American guitar and amp manufacturers who outsource production overseas

“Tariffs on products from its Mexico and China facilities would increase operating costs by $20 to $25 million.” Fender's credit rating is downgraded as tariffs pose new challenges for the guitar and gear maker

https://www.guitarplayer.com/makers/fen ... eport-2025

[Hal Jordan]

I don't think it's generally realised how badly this is going to screw with global supply chains. Companies have been getting out of China since over a decade now. But all the escape routes like Vietnam got whacked as well. And regardless of your product or where it is made, if it moves up a couple of prices brackets sales halve or worse, don't sell. We're not talking 3 or 4% inflation here. And that's just for starters on the front end, let alone the cost of components for all sorts of stuff. This is serious immediate cost of living impact for all Americans and loss of sales for a huge number of US companies - years before any imagined benefit will come to fruition.

And the MAGA faithful will be blaming Biden and Obama all through this rough journey

They'll blame Clinton and Jimmy Carter if they can.

MAGA don't care if Trump hurts them as long as he hurts Them.

[dpedin]

The only thing certain about yesterday's announcements is that Trump and his bunch of brownshirts will change all these tariffs in the short - medium term. These are just the starting point for Trump to try and bully and leverage 'deals' with the rest of the world. They know this will screw their economy if anything other than a short term tactic and are counting on the fact that most of the world will fold pretty quickly and come to them with their tails between their legs offering presents. However if the likes of Canada, the EU and China decide to play hardball then the US is screwed and Trump will have to look for a way out asap.

The problem Trump is facing is like the Brexit consequences. The frog eyed dimwit Brexiteers said Brexit would hit the German car makers and the French cheese makers just as hard as it hit us but they forgot that the UK would be hit by the full force of Brexit and its relationship with every EU member whereas the EU share of Brexit impact was only damaging a small % of their business ie the trade with the UK. Most EU member states and businesses managed the impact well whereas the UK has had a 4% hit to its GDP. Trumps tariffs are the same: imports into US from every country will be hit and increase in cost to consumers whereas for the rest of the world the US tariff impact, whilst damaging, will only hit a % of their exports. The UKs exports to the US are about 17% of all our exports, only c30% of what we export to the EU for example and whilst it will hit some specific industries hard like car manufacturing, whisky, etc the impact for many others is minimal. If Canada, EU, China etc retaliate and play hard ball then the US will be hit the hardest and Trump will either fold or else commit political suicide!

The longer term issue for the US ie the next 3-4 years is who the hell will develop and invest in a business model reliant on the US market? Confidence in the US was built over decades and has been lost in 100 days. They are now the pariah of world trade and are in danger of becoming isolated completely as countries and businesses invest in models less reliant on the US. I fear for the US even more than before ... the US is lost!

[Yeeb]

The only thing certain about yesterday's announcements is that Trump and his bunch of brownshirts will change all these tariffs in the short - medium term. These are just the starting point for Trump to try and bully and leverage 'deals' with the rest of the world. They know this will screw their economy if anything other than a short term tactic and are counting on the fact that most of the world will fold pretty quickly and come to them with their tails between their legs offering presents. However if the likes of Canada, the EU and China decide to play hardball then the US is screwed and Trump will have to look for a way out asap.

The problem Trump is facing is like the Brexit consequences. The frog eyed dimwit Brexiteers said Brexit would hit the German car makers and the French cheese makers just as hard as it hit us but they forgot that the UK would be hit by the full force of Brexit and its relationship with every EU member whereas the EU share of Brexit impact was only damaging a small % of their business ie the trade with the UK. Most EU member states and businesses managed the impact well whereas the UK has had a 4% hit to its GDP. Trumps tariffs are the same: imports into US from every country will be hit and increase in cost to consumers whereas for the rest of the world the US tariff impact, whilst damaging, will only hit a % of their exports. The UKs exports to the US are about 17% of all our exports, only c30% of what we export to the EU for example and whilst it will hit some specific industries hard like car manufacturing, whisky, etc the impact for many others is minimal. If Canada, EU, China etc retaliate and play hard ball then the US will be hit the hardest and Trump will either fold or else commit political suicide!

The longer term issue for the US ie the next 3-4 years is who the hell will develop and invest in a business model reliant on the US market? Confidence in the US was built over decades and has been lost in 100 days. They are now the pariah of world trade and are in danger of becoming isolated completely as countries and businesses invest in models less reliant on the US. I fear for the US even more than before ... the US is lost!

Bit disingenuous linking US tariffs on everyone , with Brexit to fit your agenda. The Brexit related tariffs / end of exemptions , could have been not applied had EU wanted to not retaliate (and in any case mostly the status quo has remained thus far) and uk retaliate to the retaliation… tit for tat rarely works.

However I agree with you 100% that this is merely a start for Trump and it’s his way of bullying deal making. Be interesting to see how this pans out & for us, what Starmer does (probs best if he continues to do fuck all really and let other countries fight the US)

[Rhubarb & Custard]

There were, a legacy from Mayor Pete, a lot of infrastructure projects in the pipeline in the USA. Many of those are no longer funded because say for instance say you'd planned to import steel as part of your construction that's just no longer possible and thus the whole goes, and that situation repeats, a lot. So they've an awful lot of work to consider what's still deliverable and what adds value if it is delivered as part of a smaller overall package. And for what? Something that only hurts them anyway. The orange one remains dumber than a rock

[Rhubarb & Custard]

what Starmer does (probs best if he continues to do fuck all really and let other countries fight the US)

Starmer has his coalition of the unwilling in hoping not to act in all this

[Yeeb]

Well clothes are going to get a lot more expensive in the US; Bangladesh, Vietnam, Sri Lanka & Cambodia all hit with massive tariffs

For anyone following or closer than me, where does the left hand column 10% for whatever apparently we charge the us come from ? I thought it was 0-5% depending on the item

[Yeeb]

what Starmer does (probs best if he continues to do fuck all really and let other countries fight the US)

Starmer has his coalition of the unwilling in hoping not to act in all this

Zero chance Eu won’t retaliate in some way, they see themselves as equals to the US - if anyone has sense they will gang up and reciprocate in equal fashion to trump. Uk hasn’t been in a position to tangle with US since ww2 and certainly since suez where Eisenhower’s threats on the debt pulled the strings

[Kiwias]

For anyone following or closer than me, where does the left hand column 10% for whatever apparently we charge the us come from ? I thought it was 0-5% depending on the item

Guy posted a good explanation a few posts earlier.

They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country’s exports to us. So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

Source: https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/04/03/do ... ce-menace/

[Yeeb]

For anyone following or closer than me, where does the left hand column 10% for whatever apparently we charge the us come from ? I thought it was 0-5% depending on the item

Guy posted a good explanation a few posts earlier.

They didn’t actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country’s exports to us. So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

Source: https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/04/03/do ... ce-menace/

Ah I see , thanks - missed that skimming on my phone. That’s even more bent then, conflating deficit with tariff rate. Using his own argument against him, seems it ok for the US to rip us off then!

We are lucky (and it really is luck) that we have got off easy so far - just hope we don’t end up as collateral damage in a US EU trade war too much

[Uncle fester]

Well clothes are going to get a lot more expensive in the US; Bangladesh, Vietnam, Sri Lanka & Cambodia all hit with massive tariffs

Real proof that the trump admin recognises but doesn't understand the problem. US has trade deficits because they don't make things anymore. The solution isn't getting low paid sweatshop jobs back. It's moving up the value chain to make stuff that other people want and it's valuable but that would require foresight, vision, commitment and planning.

[Hal Jordan]

Trump will be salivating at the thought of world leaders, presidents, dictators, kings and princes lining up to beg his forgiveness and offer suitable fealty in return for his generosity in lowering the tariffs. Moron.

[Flockwitt]

It's the US companies and people that are paying for this. It is so unbelieveably stupid. You can't just rewire global supply chains by the flick of a switch. For what exactly are they doing this? To balance the books for the tax break Trump is going to give?

[Biffer]

They put a tariff on the British Indian Ocean Territory.

The only thing there is a US / UK military base.

[laurent]

They put a tariff on the British Indian Ocean Territory.

The only thing there is a US / UK military base.

They put some on French Guyana and Reunion ...

[Slick]

How long will it be before these start to bite?

[Yeeb]

How long will it be before these start to bite?

Us consumer - soon

Uk consumer - mostly will be unnoticed

Uk employee of a company exposed to US trade - next March when their bonus is crap

[tabascoboy]

Trump will be salivating at the thought of world leaders, presidents, dictators, kings and princes lining up to beg his forgiveness and offer suitable fealty in return for his generosity in lowering the tariffs. Moron.

[Flockwitt]

The Whitehouse stating, "Trust in President Trump."

[lemonhead]

It's the US companies and people that are paying for this. It is so unbelieveably stupid. You can't just rewire global supply chains by the flick of a switch. For what exactly are they doing this? To balance the books for the tax break Trump is going to give?

The foreign businesses pay as well, presuming it's somewhat targeted.

A Scottish whisky producer was on earlier in the week saying that similar tariffs were in place for 18 months a few years back and he had to meet his US distrubutor halfway with both of them swallowing a hit to keep consumer price unaffected. Feck knows what now at scale of course, it's between nations and a case of whoever blinks fitst.