Another 737 down

[Yeeb]

One of the reasons Boeing is thought to have come unstuck, is because of poor long term financial governance at board level, along these lines:
1. Hey, it’s 2015, I get extra executive bonuses if the share price gets over $200
2. Pumps money into share buybacks to hit $200 instead of R&D, QA, inventory, human capital and training etc
3. Repeat but for $300
4. Then $400
5. Planes start dropping out of sky
6. Share price back where it was a decade ago
7. Only its debts are now much higher as it’s trying to plug gaps all over the place


I’ve grossly simplified and it’s not all due to share buybacks , but little details like reliability and wheels not falling off aircraft, incur about after a decade of negligence on the processes and humans that prevent wheels falling off.

Go back a decade and their debt was around $1-2 billion and within normal operating debt ratio for a company that size and global reach of 1-2% debt/ assets ratio. They are now at nearly $40billion and 41% debt to assets.

[Enzedder]

Great info there Yeeb. I wasn't aware of the huge debt levels.

Which company should I invest in (i.e. which company is going to buy Boeing's assets at 5c in the $ when they belly up)?

[Yeeb]

Great info there Yeeb. I wasn't aware of the huge debt levels.

Which company should I invest in (i.e. which company is going to buy Boeing's assets at 5c in the $ when they belly up)?

Ah now if I knew that , I’d be happy. It’s Boeing so will be propped up by Uncle Sam one way or another , same as all their previous utter shite got bought instead of much better alternatives . There’s a lot of jobs and lobbying at stake to protect.

Unlike their planes, the company is not quite in a death spiral yet , corporate debt per se isn’t bad , but borrowing that much to plug leaky gaps in their fiscal strength is extremely worrying. Luckily I have no direct investments in them so couldn’t give a shit. But for me it is quite fascinating how much they have fucked up in only ten years, and it’s largely self inflicted. If you google Boeing debt ratios there are some more graphs and articles on the subject

On a not so side note, I used to work for a large US listed medical firm , and their CeO and couple of C suite US based chums got zapped because of not disimilar share manipulation activities , falling foul of corporate ethic policies despite having done nothing illegal. Plenty of financial investors do very well out of studying this sort of corporate financial activity , seeing directors buy lots of their own stock is usually a good thing.

[Yeeb]

One thing I forgot to say , even more amusing is the vast majority of their share buybacks occurred at prices >$200 so they have literally made things more expensive for themselves than had they just maintained a slow trickle of repurchase each year and not push the price upwards. The contrast with oil companies like BP measured approach at improving their balance sheet is stark (oil companies are hugely cash generative of course which helps).

[Sandstorm]

I’ve grossly simplified and it’s not all due to share buybacks , but little details like reliability and wheels not falling off aircraft, incur about after a decade of negligence on the processes and humans that prevent wheels falling off.

Boeing doesn’t service and maintain aircraft, airlines do. Blame Boeing for issues with doors flying off new MAX aircraft or exploding lithium batteries on the Dreamliner.

But a wheel falling off a 26 year old United 757 has nothing to do with share buybacks.

Boeings quality issues are to do with retiring their best engineers & replacing them with MBA graduates who outsource manufacturing to crap subcontractors. Then you do some spreadsheets and don’t monitor the work they do.

[Yeeb]

I’ve grossly simplified and it’s not all due to share buybacks , but little details like reliability and wheels not falling off aircraft, incur about after a decade of negligence on the processes and humans that prevent wheels falling off.

Boeing doesn’t service and maintain aircraft, airlines do. Blame Boeing for issues with doors flying off new MAX aircraft or exploding lithium batteries on the Dreamliner.

But a wheel falling off a 26 year old United 757 has nothing to do with share buybacks.

Boeings quality issues are to do with retiring their best engineers & replacing them with MBA graduates who outsource manufacturing to crap subcontractors. Then you do some spreadsheets and don’t monitor the work they do.

You misinterpret what I wrote whilst agreeeing with me: wheel fell off was an off the cuff comment, not literal, any aviation enthusiast knows about servicing - and I did write human capital which is as exactly as you say, losing talented engineers with pride in their work, and cutting corners by employing cheap monkeys for peanuts who are not as thourough as the guys doing it ten+ years ago were when forging a wing strut or whatever .

The problems actually go back even further than that, one crash iirc was related to some repairs that were done by Boeing , but not very well - 20000 cycles later something broke and people died. Right now I can’t recall the details , but Boeing were heavily involved in the non-spec repair.

The share buybacks were to illustrate how their priorities shifted away from reliable and safe, and to propping up financial metrics (especially linked to corporate executive performance bonuses) , and the knock on effects a decade later of this shift in priorities.

[tabascoboy]

"minutes after take-off"

[Sandstorm]

That's tragic.

[Kiwias]

I’ve grossly simplified and it’s not all due to share buybacks , but little details like reliability and wheels not falling off aircraft, incur about after a decade of negligence on the processes and humans that prevent wheels falling off.

Boeing doesn’t service and maintain aircraft, airlines do. Blame Boeing for issues with doors flying off new MAX aircraft or exploding lithium batteries on the Dreamliner.

But a wheel falling off a 26 year old United 757 has nothing to do with share buybacks.

Boeings quality issues are to do with retiring their best engineers & replacing them with MBA graduates who outsource manufacturing to crap subcontractors. Then you do some spreadsheets and don’t monitor the work they do.

You misinterpret what I wrote whilst agreeeing with me: wheel fell off was an off the cuff comment, not literal, any aviation enthusiast knows about servicing - and I did write human capital which is as exactly as you say, losing talented engineers with pride in their work, and cutting corners by employing cheap monkeys for peanuts who are not as thourough as the guys doing it ten+ years ago were when forging a wing strut or whatever .

The problems actually go back even further than that, one crash iirc was related to some repairs that were done by Boeing , but not very well - 20000 cycles later something broke and people died. Right now I can’t recall the details , but Boeing were heavily involved in the non-spec repair.

The share buybacks were to illustrate how their priorities shifted away from reliable and safe, and to propping up financial metrics (especially linked to corporate executive performance bonuses) , and the knock on effects a decade later of this shift in priorities.

The 747 that crashed in 1985 in Japan killing over 400 was a plane that had suffered some damage that had been repaired by Boeing. I suspect that is the one you refer to above.

[TB63]

Looks like it crashed into a block of flats!

My son is flying from Melbourne to UK with them in August

[SaintK]

Looks like it crashed into a block of flats!

My son is flying from Melbourne to UK with them in August

Faiz Ahmed Kidwai, chief of India's directorate of civil aviation, tells the Associated Press the plane crashed into a residential area called Meghani Nagar.

[Sandstorm]

Looks like it just lost power and couldn't keep climbing.

[Biffer]

i don't really want to watch a video of hundreds of people being killed.

[SaintK]

There can't possibly be any survivors from 600 feet

There were 242 people on board, including two pilots and 10 cabin crew
There were 169 Indian nationals, 53 British nationals, one Canadian national and seven Portuguese nationals
The plane - a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner - gave a mayday call to air traffic control after taking off, but then gave no response
Signal was lost seconds after take-off when the plane had reached 625 feet, according to Flight Radar
The plane came down in a residential area near the airport

[Sandstorm]

i don't really want to watch a video of hundreds of people being killed.

Fair enough.

Looks like the flaps are still up, so the plane is unable to climb. Pilot error or mechanical fault? We'll know eventually.

1st ever Dreamliner crash too.

[tabascoboy]

"injured being taken to hospital" so survivors though whether that's passengers/ crew or people at the crash site or both

[Hal Jordan]

The injured are probably going to be people from around the crash site, I would be amazed if any of the passengers survived,

[Margin__Walker]

Looks like a British national may have survives the crash if local sources are to be trusted. Miraculous.

[tabascoboy]

The injured are probably going to be people from around the crash site, I would be amazed if any of the passengers survived,

It's not completely impossible even with an explosion, but clearly more likely when a crash is at an airport with emergency crews right there for immediate fire suppression and rescue. 204 bodies recovered so the omens certainly not good now. The reported so far single survivor is very remarkable indeed though

[Uncle fester]

Another angle.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/4Uefko5ald

Comments suggest that the flaps were not in correct position.

[fishfoodie]

The injured are probably going to be people from around the crash site, I would be amazed if any of the passengers survived,

It's not completely impossible even with an explosion, but clearly more likely when a crash is at an airport with emergency crews right there for immediate fire suppression and rescue. 204 bodies recovered so the omens certainly not good now. The reported so far single survivor is very remarkable indeed though

There was that crash in Pakistan during Covid where the crew forgot to lower the landing gear, & it crashed trying to return to the airport, after a bump & go which destroyed the engines, & I think there was a sole survivor there too, he was I think just found in his seat, in the middle of the street with wreckage all around.

Sometimes in spite of everything people just survive.

[tabascoboy]

The injured are probably going to be people from around the crash site, I would be amazed if any of the passengers survived,

It's not completely impossible even with an explosion, but clearly more likely when a crash is at an airport with emergency crews right there for immediate fire suppression and rescue. 204 bodies recovered so the omens certainly not good now. The reported so far single survivor is very remarkable indeed though

There was that crash in Pakistan during Covid where the crew forgot to lower the landing gear, & it crashed trying to return to the airport, after a bump & go which destroyed the engines, & I think there was a sole survivor there too, he was I think just found in his seat, in the middle of the street with wreckage all around.

Sometimes in spite of everything people just survive.

Must be a very hard experience to be a sole survivor if you are travelling with family or friends. Most likely need counselling for "Survivor Guilt". The guy they found today barely has a chance to process it before the press were all over him.

[fishfoodie]

Another angle.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/4Uefko5ald

Comments suggest that the flaps were not in correct position.

Which is bizarre because in a modern aircraft like this there'd be alarms screaming at them that the flaps weren't in the correct configuration.

As usual we won't know what happened until we get the black boxes & we get an idea what the hell was going on in the cockpit.

I notice the pilots on the news programs all clammed up once we saw those last few seconds with the flaps retracted & the gear down; they know the probabilities are now all on this being a pilot error or CRM fuckup.

[TB63]

My daughter works for Virgin, one of her team has lost her father, brother, sister in law, sister and brother in law on that flight.
The company is bending over backwards to assist, including repatriation for them.
In the meantime, tickets being cancelled by the dozens for flights on Boeing jets...

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Now being reported that the sole survivor had a relative who was also on the same flight

[TheNatalShark]

An Indian news outlet has released passenger list already, including passport numbers.

India truly has one of the worst media landscapes on the planet

[fishfoodie]

Reuters reporting pretty significant casualties on the ground

At least one passenger is known to have survived, police said, and the man told Indian media how he had heard a loud noise shortly after take-off.

"Approximately 294 have died. This includes some students as the plane crashed on the building where they were staying," Vidhi Chaudhary, a top state police officer, told Reuters.

She said police found one survivor who was in seat 11A, next to an emergency exit, adding that there could be more survivors in hospital.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/pla ... 025-06-12/

[Insane_Homer]

Loud noise shortly after take off probably a tail strike due to excess rotation trying to get a bird, that was either too slow or too heavy at Vr, off the ground, which looks like it then contributed to the fatal stall.

Horrible. RIP.

[Blackmac]

The BBC special coverage of this is awful. The interview with the survivors cousin was one of the worst bits of journalistic interrogations I ever seen.

[Blackmac]

An aviation expert speculating that they may have accidentally retracted the flaps instead of the landing gear. Certainly doesn't look like the flaps are extended on the footage and no sign of the landing gear lifting.

[Enzedder]

This guy seems to think that the First Officer likely raised the flaps instead of the landing gear

Not sure, the engines didn't appear to be sending out any thrust signs

[Sandstorm]

This guy seems to think that the First Officer likely raised the flaps instead of the landing gear

Not sure, the engines didn't appear to be sending out any thrust signs

Everyone else says total engine failure. Birdstrike possible, but no clear evidence yet.

[Torquemada 1420]

Another angle.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/4Uefko5ald

Comments suggest that the flaps were not in correct position.

And it actually looks like that from the poor pics but hard to understand how. Must have been deployed to even have gotten off the ground so how/why would they have been retracted early?

[Torquemada 1420]

This guy seems to think that the First Officer likely raised the flaps instead of the landing gear

Not sure, the engines didn't appear to be sending out any thrust signs

a) As soon as you breach the flight envelope, these Playstation planes these days are, at the very least, meant to honk and whine like a bitch. Airbus systems will often be set to override the pilot where it thinks the crew is being dumb.
b) No idea what the controls of a Dreamliner are like but flaps are a progressive control and landing gear is a switch. How TF could you confuse them?

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Another angle.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/4Uefko5ald

Comments suggest that the flaps were not in correct position.

And it actually looks like that from the poor pics but hard to understand how. Must have been deployed to even have gotten off the ground so how/why would they have been retracted early?

Flaps appear deployed normally, including in photos from the crash site. Complete loss of power seems most likely. Looks like the emergency power propeller thing is deployed and also because apparently that's what the pilot said in his mayday call.

[Torquemada 1420]

Another angle.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/4Uefko5ald

Comments suggest that the flaps were not in correct position.

And it actually looks like that from the poor pics but hard to understand how. Must have been deployed to even have gotten off the ground so how/why would they have been retracted early?

Flaps appear deployed normally, including in photos from the crash site. Complete loss of power seems most likely. Looks like the emergency power propeller thing is deployed and also because apparently that's what the pilot said in his mayday call.

Thanks. That grainy mobile phone video is hard to see but looked like not deployed then: not sure you'd be able to see all of the engines at that AOA with flaps extended. Total loss of power makes more sense........ which is incredibly rare.

It'll be the one topic of conversation for us armchair experts at the airfield this morning!!!

[fishfoodie]

Another angle.
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/s/4Uefko5ald

Comments suggest that the flaps were not in correct position.

And it actually looks like that from the poor pics but hard to understand how. Must have been deployed to even have gotten off the ground so how/why would they have been retracted early?

Flaps appear deployed normally, including in photos from the crash site. Complete loss of power seems most likely. Looks like the emergency power propeller thing is deployed and also because apparently that's what the pilot said in his mayday call.

Turns out there are four reasons apart from a double engine failure that can cause the RAT to automatically deploy, including a complete hydraulic systems failure, or the crews instruments losing power; so it's possible they still had power, but couldn't retract gear, or the control surfaces, but they used the entire length of the runway to just get off, so there might still have been an issue with getting to V1.

I think this also answers the question of the bang the survivor heard; it was the RAT deploying !

[Torquemada 1420]

This is an interesting one:


Here is a snip I've taken from another Dreamliner take off


and comparing with the (now improved) video in the video link above, for me it's inconclusive whether Air India had flaps deployed.

[Sandstorm]

This is an interesting one:


Here is a snip I've taken from another Dreamliner take off


and comparing with the (now improved) video in the video link above, for me it's inconclusive whether Air India had flaps deployed.

Careful Torque, a lot of actual 787 pilots are debunking everything Capn Steeeve is saying.