Kicking off in Israel

[Uncle fester]

Randy Fine, republican congressman from Florida, wants Gaza nuked in response to the murder of two Jewish diplomats in Washington DC yesterday.

Sounds like a nice chap.

[Uncle fester]

An Israeli perspective on the stuttering aid supplies into Gaza.

https://archive.ph/2025.05.22-101101/ht ... on-in-gaza

Interesting the view on the US and the pressure they put on.

[Uncle fester]

But Hamas

[Kiwias]

But Hamas

Ben-Gvir, the minister in that clip, was happily walking through the halls of congress in the US recently, yelling abuse at Palestinians there to talk to representatives about the genocide going on in Gaza. He seems like a decent enough bloke

[Kiwias]

Yet another ‘incident’ that Israel will find some way to justify. Some group is claiming that reports are all false.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c628n68zpj6t

[Slick]

Yet another ‘incident’ that Israel will find some way to justify. Some group is claiming that reports are all false.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c628n68zpj6t

They seem to be just completely denying it even happened

[Uncle fester]

I love the way they call it the "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation" when it's really an Israeli controlled entity with a fake office in Geneva to add a veneer of respectability.

[Uncle fester]

Palestinians – or those who are able to get to the sites – now face an impossible choice, as the UN’s human rights chief, Volker Türk, said on Tuesday:
“Die from starvation or risk being killed while trying to access the meagre food that
is being made available.” The attacks on civilians, he added, constitute a war crime.

[Calculon]

One of his better videos IMO

[Uncle fester]

Having empowered Hamas in the first place, Israel's plan to get the monster under control is to arm a Palestinian mafia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... t-gaza-war

[Slick]

Think we might need a new thread….

They are out of control

[Guy Smiley]

Think we might need a new thread….

They are out of control

It's all just self defense.

[_Os_]

Think we might need a new thread….

They are out of control

Looks like a good surprise attack. Israel's last strike failed (despite all the propaganda), they clearly weren't happy with how weak it looked after Iran broke their missile defences. But they're now unilaterally striking residential areas of Tehran, being publicly disavowed by the US in the strongest terms, all whilst Trump is conducting peace talks with Iran. Goes back to some past posts I made, if Israel keeps trying to escalate against Iran the chances of an Iranian nuclear test dramatically increase. Iran isn't going to risk becoming the next Iraq/Lebanon/Syria/Palestine, Israel cannot inflict that on Iran without US support and the surest way to keep the US out is being nuclear armed. That is the entire point of their nuclear programme. Iran has field tested the hardest part which is the delivery vehicle, it's a sprint over a few months for a bomb if they decide to do it.

Israel will keep trying to provoke a conflict against Iran, which they’re completely unable to fight without the US. They’ve always done everything possible to eliminate regional rivals, regional “mowing the lawn”. Israel’s status is in being the dominant regional military power. Iran’s best move is no direct retaliation, use proxies to keep conflicts away from their borders.

If so that’s twice Israeli escalation dominance didn’t happen against Iran, twice they backed down after a massive attack. If Israel doesn’t do that and goes full Netanyahu instead, it has to deal with a potential Iranian retaliation which is something along the lines of a nuclear test. Then long term, a nuclear armed Iran that has already defeated Israeli/US missile defence once and has enough missiles for a saturation attack. And after that a significantly more dangerous ME the US has little hope of policing.

[Uncle fester]

Think we might need a new thread….

They are out of control

Bibi is trying to shore things up domestically. He's just survived a bid to dissolve parliament so is safe for another six months.

[_Os_]

The videos in daylight that are emerging indicate this could be something larger than the usual tit for tat.

Israel has destroyed air defence radars. If the plan is to launch a full air war, first Iran's air defences would be peeled away probably using air launched ballistic missiles over Iraq from a safe distance (this is what they did in the previous failed/aborted strike), then once air defences have been cleared aircraft are sent directly over nuclear installations to drop larger bunker busters that cannot be delivered from distance.

Problem is that without active US involvement in a significant way there's much more chance this doesn't fully work and ends up half baked. The bunkers in question are buried deep under mountains. Israel has no strategic bombers. Blowing the entrances isn't enough, because Iran controls the ground.

Looks like Israel wading into another escalation it cannot control.

[Slick]

The videos in daylight that are emerging indicate this could be something larger than the usual tit for tat.

Israel has destroyed air defence radars. If the plan is to launch a full air war, first Iran's air defences would be peeled away probably using air launched ballistic missiles over Iraq from a safe distance (this is what they did in the previous failed/aborted strike), then once air defences have been cleared aircraft are sent directly over nuclear installations to drop larger bunker busters that cannot be delivered from distance.

Problem is that without active US involvement in a significant way there's much more chance this doesn't fully work and ends up half baked. The bunkers in question are buried deep under mountains. Israel has no strategic bombers. Blowing the entrances isn't enough, because Iran controls the ground.

Looks like Israel wading into another escalation it cannot control.

Surely Iran has a plan for this happening. Their response so far has been very muted suggesting they don’t want to do anything, can’t do anything, or this is the best they’ve got.

[Sandstorm]

Fuck Israel. Cunts.

[Slick]

Fuck Israel. Cunts.

Agreed

[geordie_6]

US have announced that they are helping intercept the missiles from Iran (per Sky News).

[Uncle fester]

The videos in daylight that are emerging indicate this could be something larger than the usual tit for tat.

Israel has destroyed air defence radars. If the plan is to launch a full air war, first Iran's air defences would be peeled away probably using air launched ballistic missiles over Iraq from a safe distance (this is what they did in the previous failed/aborted strike), then once air defences have been cleared aircraft are sent directly over nuclear installations to drop larger bunker busters that cannot be delivered from distance.

Problem is that without active US involvement in a significant way there's much more chance this doesn't fully work and ends up half baked. The bunkers in question are buried deep under mountains. Israel has no strategic bombers. Blowing the entrances isn't enough, because Iran controls the ground.

Looks like Israel wading into another escalation it cannot control.

Surely Iran has a plan for this happening. Their response so far has been very muted suggesting they don’t want to do anything, can’t do anything, or this is the best they’ve got.

Quite likely.
Iran has assets on ground in Hezbollah and influence in Syria but do they have anything in Israel? Probably not.
Unless they develop nukes and a way to deliver them, they've got no way of hurting Israel by military means.

Israel turning the country into a ethnostate means that they will be difficult to penetrate by intelligence means.

It's all fine as long as the US has their back. Once that's not the case, they will go the way of Outremer.

[Slick]

The videos in daylight that are emerging indicate this could be something larger than the usual tit for tat.

Israel has destroyed air defence radars. If the plan is to launch a full air war, first Iran's air defences would be peeled away probably using air launched ballistic missiles over Iraq from a safe distance (this is what they did in the previous failed/aborted strike), then once air defences have been cleared aircraft are sent directly over nuclear installations to drop larger bunker busters that cannot be delivered from distance.

Problem is that without active US involvement in a significant way there's much more chance this doesn't fully work and ends up half baked. The bunkers in question are buried deep under mountains. Israel has no strategic bombers. Blowing the entrances isn't enough, because Iran controls the ground.

Looks like Israel wading into another escalation it cannot control.

Surely Iran has a plan for this happening. Their response so far has been very muted suggesting they don’t want to do anything, can’t do anything, or this is the best they’ve got.

Quite likely.
Iran has assets on ground in Hezbollah and influence in Syria but do they have anything in Israel? Probably not.
Unless they develop nukes and a way to deliver them, they've got no way of hurting Israel by military means.

Israel turning the country into a ethnostate means that they will be difficult to penetrate by intelligence means.

It's all fine as long as the US has their back. Once that's not the case, they will go the way of Outremer.

They seem to be having a go tonight

[Slick]

I think it’s a bad miscalculation if Israel honestly thinks the Iranians will rise up against their rulers. They hate them, but not as much as they will hate being attacked by an outside force

[Paddington Bear]

I think it’s a bad miscalculation if Israel honestly thinks the Iranians will rise up against their rulers. They hate them, but not as much as they will hate being attacked by an outside force

Particularly at the instigation of Israel.

Plus there are so many examples of hated regimes gaining strength and legitimacy through an attack on the homeland. Iran is one of the most ancient nations on earth and I suspect they will defend themselves

[Uncle fester]

I think it’s a bad miscalculation if Israel honestly thinks the Iranians will rise up against their rulers. They hate them, but not as much as they will hate being attacked by an outside force

Particularly at the instigation of Israel.

Plus there are so many examples of hated regimes gaining strength and legitimacy through an attack on the homeland. Iran is one of the most ancient nations on earth and I suspect they will defend themselves

Is that actually what Israel are aiming for here?
We know they pretend to believe it when slaughtering Palestinians to mask their real aims but do they genuinely believe that with Iran?

That said, other than trying to destroy military assets, it's hard to see what Israel's aims are here.
Maybe Iran are closer to a nuke than people realise.
They'll certainly be more motivated to get one now.

[geordie_6]

Unclear at this point if Iran have a fully operational nuclear warhead, but what are the odds they would essentially use a dirty bomb and put radioactive material into one of their ballistic missiles?

[Slick]

I think it’s a bad miscalculation if Israel honestly thinks the Iranians will rise up against their rulers. They hate them, but not as much as they will hate being attacked by an outside force

Particularly at the instigation of Israel.

Plus there are so many examples of hated regimes gaining strength and legitimacy through an attack on the homeland. Iran is one of the most ancient nations on earth and I suspect they will defend themselves

Is that actually what Israel are aiming for here?
We know they pretend to believe it when slaughtering Palestinians to mask their real aims but do they genuinely believe that with Iran?

That said, other than trying to destroy military assets, it's hard to see what Israel's aims are here.
Maybe Iran are closer to a nuke than people realise.
They'll certainly be more motivated to get one now.

Dunno, but Netanyahu keeps banging on about it

[Jockaline]

Particularly at the instigation of Israel.

Plus there are so many examples of hated regimes gaining strength and legitimacy through an attack on the homeland. Iran is one of the most ancient nations on earth and I suspect they will defend themselves

Is that actually what Israel are aiming for here?
We know they pretend to believe it when slaughtering Palestinians to mask their real aims but do they genuinely believe that with Iran?

That said, other than trying to destroy military assets, it's hard to see what Israel's aims are here.
Maybe Iran are closer to a nuke than people realise.
They'll certainly be more motivated to get one now.

Dunno, but Netanyahu keeps banging on about it

Has been for years.

[Uncle fester]

Think about it: The reality is that Netanyahu attacked Iran to derail the US led nuclear deal negotiations. He did what he did to undermine US policy and interests. Not an ally. And Trump is such a cuck he is covering for it because he doesn’t want to appear weak or out of the loop.

https://bsky.app/profile/djrothkopf.bsk ... lhsvbnos2y

[Slick]

Think about it: The reality is that Netanyahu attacked Iran to derail the US led nuclear deal negotiations. He did what he did to undermine US policy and interests. Not an ally. And Trump is such a cuck he is covering for it because he doesn’t want to appear weak or out of the loop.

https://bsky.app/profile/djrothkopf.bsk ... lhsvbnos2y

Literally the whole world knows how to play the President of the United States, quite scary really

[_Os_]

being publicly disavowed by the US in the strongest terms, all whilst Trump is conducting peace talks with Iran.

This looks like the crucial aspect and it's hard to tell what is happening. Rubio immediately distanced the US (I foolishly thought that indicated the US position). Trump then starts claiming responsibility. Then there's lots of claims that this was all planned and Trump was playing 4D chess pretending to negotiate with Iran but also knowing Israel would attack.

For me the big tell is Trump doing his mobster thing of "I'll make you a deal you can't refuse, my deal or Israel keeps attacking". In Trump world this makes total sense as a negotiating tactic, you offer someone two shit deals and expect them to take the least worst. I reckon he knew about the attack and viewed it as a brilliant negotiating tactic (he wants his Nobel Peace Prize). In Trump world he's in the middle of a negotiation with Iran, which is a completely rational actor who wants the same things as the US and selects the least worst option to trade with the US or something.

The negotiations are now predictably over, and the logical move for Iranian regime is to rush nuclear weapons if they're able.

You have to wonder if the US realised the extent of the Israeli attack, this isn't the sort of thing you can go do half baked, it's an all or nothing undertaking. If the Iranian regime is left standing and has the capability to produce nuclear weapons the incentive is to do so, the threat of an Iranian nuke and talking about that with the US now isn't a deterrent. Trump is talking about a deal, not realising he's bought a war with Iran. Trump is also stubborn, I can see him repeating "deal or Israeli attacks" even if he's directly told Israel alone cannot prevent an Iranian nuke.

Which takes us back to Rubio and the immediate distance he was eager to announce (Rubio seems like a decent operator), the exact opposite of what Trump has done. Lets say the US does get directly involved, the risk then is that makes all this a target: US bases/oil infrastructure in Gulf dictatorships allied to the US/shipping. Cannot defend it all, probably quite vulnerable to cheap drone swarms, short range missiles, Iran backed Iraqi militias. Can't see that being good for the global economy.

[fishfoodie]

Just add to all of that, how the orange dipshit gets up in the morning & decides that the, "Deal", he negotiated 24hrs ago is suddenly, "Not Fair", & unilaterally goes against it, & how the fuck can anyone, "negotiate", with a cretin like him ?????

From a neutral perspective; Iran is absolutely correct from their POV to go hard for nukes, because contrast how the Orange turd speaks about Kim versus the Mullahs !

[_Os_]

I think it’s a bad miscalculation if Israel honestly thinks the Iranians will rise up against their rulers. They hate them, but not as much as they will hate being attacked by an outside force

Particularly at the instigation of Israel.

Plus there are so many examples of hated regimes gaining strength and legitimacy through an attack on the homeland. Iran is one of the most ancient nations on earth and I suspect they will defend themselves

It's following the same path as the attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah:

1. Brilliant targeted decapitation attacks.
2. Netanyahu telling people who hate him and Israel to rise up and replace their leaders/dictators/regimes with unknown people who are acceptable to him. He was going to occupy Lebanon to the Litani River and everyone would rise up against Hezbollah who they've supported for generations etc.
3. Predictably no uprising on behalf of an opposition which does not exist. The opponent demonstrably having at least some advanced capabilities remaining and using them.

If it follows the same path, the stages yet to come are:

4. Israel runs through all the high value targets on its menu. Opponent refuses to surrender and keeps attacking with whatever it has.
5. Israel gets frustrated and starts carpet bombing, mass civilian death etc. The area is turned to rubble. Opponent refuses to surrender etc.
6. Israel left with an unsolvable situation, the opponent still exists, Israel claims to have won.

Iran isn't a joke country. 90 million people, large and mountainous, industrial base strong enough to support a Russia in some areas (drones and munitions), fought a grinding war (trenches, chemical weapons, etc) for 8 years against a Western backed Iraq.

European leaders should be focused on Israel's tactic of turning places into rubble and Iran's population of 90 million. That's a lot of potential refugees.

[tabascoboy]

No need to worry, Trump's got it all mapped out - if you can look past the obvious irony of a leader determined to obliterate one sovereign nation while negotiating peace between two others. And Trump no doubt ready and willing to claim all the credit...

[Sandstorm]

“He called me about it”

[Guy Smiley]

It's following the same path as the attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah:

1. Brilliant targeted decapitation attacks.

Gaza


Southern Lebanon



Let's call a spade a spade. The IDF have the capability to carry out laser precise attacks targetting specific targets... but they seem to prefer a razed earth approach that at the very least, dispossesses the local population of their homes, livelihoods and social / political infrastructure. More commonly, it results in mass civilian deaths.

[Slick]

Have to say I’m quite surprised how utterly gutted Hezbollah seem to be, expected at least a few rockets to fly. They real seem to have destroyed them for the time being

[_Os_]

That's a large amount of tankers. About 11 were used in the strikes on Iran last year which didn't really do much. There's already some NATO tankers helping Israel a German tanker accidentally turned on its transponder over Syria. There are NATO exercises happening, but 20+ tankers is too much just for that. The reason they would be necessary is Israel has failed to destroy Iran's ability to launch missiles as it has no strategic bombers and not much loiter time over Iran. It is also falling for decoys (ground video post strike of vehicles which are just frames, videos of launchers destroyed that had missiles loaded but there's no secondary explosions meaning it's probably a decoy) which indicate it's using satellite imagery for targeting as it has few/no assets to use when the launches are happening.

The Nimitz carrier strike group is also moving towards Iran.

[_Os_]

Let's call a spade a spade. The IDF have the capability to carry out laser precise attacks targetting specific targets... but they seem to prefer a razed earth approach that at the very least, dispossesses the local population of their homes, livelihoods and social / political infrastructure. More commonly, it results in mass civilian deaths.

That comes at point 5.

Netanyahu is a neocon who thinks if there's a decapitation strike the people will rise up and there'll be regime change. When that doesn't happen his goal is to help turn it into a crazy shithole (Iraq, Syria).

The only real opposition in Iran are armed groups among ethnic minorities (Persians are 60% of the population), middleclass people in Tehran posting stuff on social media as isolated individuals isn't an opposition. The obvious maximal plan will be bombing Iran in the same fashion Gaza/Lebanon/Syria were bombed and arming the minority groups (which are already Western backed) in the hope of turning it into a crazy shithole. The Syria option. That's the best chance of removing the regime short of a ground invasion like Iraq (which isn't happening), could fail though. If the regime survives it's going to be motivated to get nukes, but if any even vaguely nationalist and competent government replaced the regime they too would be keen on nukes having seen this (and Ukraine). Which is why Israel wants dictatorships or shitholes, if there's anything vaguely democratic it's not going to produce pro-Israel outcomes (Lebanon).

Not sure why Europe is always so keen. All they get out of it is millions of refugees.

[Uncle fester]

Explain the tankers thing to me?
There are NATO aircraft participating in the bombing of Iran and not just the defense against Iranian missiles?

[Sandstorm]

Explain the tankers thing to me?
There are NATO aircraft participating in the bombing of Iran and not just the defense against Iranian missiles?

Not yet. They flew over from USA overnight in case they might be needed. Everyone hopes they fly home again on Thursday unused.