Kicking off in Israel

[Uncle fester]

Using nukes (presumably penetration nukes to take out Fordow?) will not only royally fuck the region, but significantly destabilise the geopolitical situation: if they can use it in Iran, what would stop Russia using a strategic nuke in Ukraine for example?

Hopefully, there are some adults left in that room...

Yes and presumably other hardened targets, it would take multiple bunker busters to essentially destroy a mountain, so Trump is considering tactical nukes. It was Trump who ordered the tactical nuke programme be renewed/upgraded in his first term, cannot rule out it would be an ego thing for him.

Once tactical nuclear warfare is on the table it probably cannot be taken off as you say. But I'm sure the US knows what it is doing.

I’m not massively convinced by some of this. If there is one thing I think the orange twat is truthful about it is his aversion to wars, just can’t see him using nukes

Have you not been paying attention to how arbitrary he is?

This whole sequence of events is going to increase proliferation of nuclear weapons as having the bomb is the only way you can stop your country being destroyed by those who have nuclear weapons.

[Torquemada 1420]

Can't agree with that. I do believe in the concept of a homeland for Jewish people, just not the expulsion, bombing and regime changing of not Jews.

As long as that concept is on someone else's country?

I'm thinking of starting my own religion and claiming a homeland. Somewhere like Kent would suffice.

[Uncle fester]

Israel can't take out Fordow and they likely knew this before they started. Only question is if the US knew about the bombing campaign and waited to see how it went before joining in or if they were caught with pants down and have been press ganged into this.

I'm going with the latter.

[Uncle fester]

Can't agree with that. I do believe in the concept of a homeland for Jewish people, just not the expulsion, bombing and regime changing of not Jews.

As long as that concept is on someone else's country?

I'm thinking of starting my own religion and claiming a homeland. Somewhere like Kent would suffice.

Well we have some experience of this on our own island. They tried the protestant state for a protestant people and it lasted 50 years because they treated the non-protestants like shit. Now they have to share a bit.

On the other side, 32 county Republicans won't be getting their nationalist Paradise either.

I think it's probably too late now but pre-civil war Lebanon was the country that Israel should have been.

[_Os_]

Can't agree with that. I do believe in the concept of a homeland for Jewish people, just not the expulsion, bombing and regime changing of not Jews.

As long as that concept is on someone else's country?

I'm thinking of starting my own religion and claiming a homeland. Somewhere like Kent would suffice.

Well we have some experience of this on our own island. They tried the protestant state for a protestant people and it lasted 50 years because they treated the non-protestants like shit. Now they have to share a bit.

On the other side, 32 county Republicans won't be getting their nationalist Paradise either.

In a sane world, Israel would have had an outcome imposed on them that wasn't "apartheid is actually totally okay". They should've been sanctioned up to their eyeballs years ago and told they either pick the two state solution on 1967 borders (a generous offer) or it's a one state solution on current borders and everyone has equal rights. If they refuse both then sanctions remain/increase.

But it's an insane world. What is happening in Gaza looks increasingly like a piece of hell on earth, daily on the news there's now massacres at food aid distribution stations. These massacres are conducted by IDF and CIA mercenaries. People killed each day in the ruins trying to get food, in batches of around 50-100, a few days back they used tanks on them. Then the donkey ambulances collect these shredded people from the ruins and take them to a makeshift "hospital". There's little fuel and every real hospital has been bombed. I've seen corpses of shredded children stacked up like firewood as if it were normal, because it is normal. UK doctors who've worked in Gaza, have given accounts of gun drones being used by the IDF to hunt down and execute children, they know because they treated the ones who survived being shot and the accounts were all similar.

Strange that they think all their neighbours are Middle Eastern savages and they are civilised. "The only democracy in the Middle East!".

[Calculon]

Which all means Israel's goal is to end them as a nation and inflict a Syria on them. Iran is a real county though with deep civilizational roots, it looks like Israel is about to lead the US into trying to destroy Iran as a functioning nation, but I'm not convinced it's possible.

Israel want's to reduce the threat from Iran, ideally to eliminate it altogther. They want Iran to be more like a Turkey or Saudi Arabia, even though their realtionships are not great, these nations are still not an overt threat to Israel the way Iran is. Yes, even better would be an Iran like it was pre- revolution when the two countries had good relations.

Destroying Iran as a functioning nation is recognised as being not particularly feasible and anyway not ideal for Israel

I suspect this is a fairly accurate representation of the Israeli government's aims/hopes regarding the current situation

https://x.com/udschachter/status/1935863338367320208

The basic reason for the revolution was the being ruled by a brutal dictator who put the interests of the West above his country. Basically no Iranian wants that again. No doubt they would like it be like Saudi, which is the Western backed dictatorship model (note how there's never any anti-Saudi propaganda regarding how they treat women or attempts to undermine their regime using the mask of women's rights).

They wouldn't want it to be like Turkey, it is democratic which means there's potential for them to turn on Israel. Very obviously Turkey will be the next place Israelis endlessly obsess over and want attacked once Iran is destroyed by the US.

And that is is the plan, they want to bomb Iran into being a crazy shithole. The only countries they want in their entire expanded region are dictatorships controlled by the West or broken shitholes. It is the literal plan.

Part of the reason for the revolution was getting rid of the pro western dictator, but the reason for the Islamic revolution was also, well, the Islamic part. Implementing a conservative Islamic theocracy. And look how well that's gone. Israel's relationship with Turkey has deteriorated as Turkey has become more Islamic and authoritarian under Erdogan, but it's still much better than it's relationship with Suadi Arabia.

[Calculon]

Using nukes (presumably penetration nukes to take out Fordow?) will not only royally fuck the region, but significantly destabilise the geopolitical situation: if they can use it in Iran, what would stop Russia using a strategic nuke in Ukraine for example?

Hopefully, there are some adults left in that room...

Yes and presumably other hardened targets, it would take multiple bunker busters to essentially destroy a mountain, so Trump is considering tactical nukes. It was Trump who ordered the tactical nuke programme be renewed/upgraded in his first term, cannot rule out it would be an ego thing for him.

Once tactical nuclear warfare is on the table it probably cannot be taken off as you say. But I'm sure the US knows what it is doing.

I’m not massively convinced by some of this. If there is one thing I think the orange twat is truthful about it is his aversion to wars, just can’t see him using nukes

He's anti long wars and anti NATO because he's generally anti western alliances and think NATO rips of America but he is less averse to military strikes. he ordered them on the Houthis recently, ordered strikes on the Syrian Regime in his first term. I think the number of drone strikes also increased in his first term compared the previous four years. Can't see nuclear weapons being used though

[fishfoodie]

B-2 Spirits on their way across the Pacific, & speculation based on their being refueled off CA, & with other refueling aircraft taking off from Hawaii is that they are heavily loaded !!

Whether they are just positioning to DG, or they're going straight to Qom is still the question

[Calculon]

No surprise, US strikes Iranian nuclear sites

Trump confirms the US struck Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan a short while ago.

"Everyone heard those names for years as they built this horrible destructive enterprise," he says.

"Tonight I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular success."

[geordie_6]

No surprise, US strikes Iranian nuclear sites

Trump confirms the US struck Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan a short while ago.

"Everyone heard those names for years as they built this horrible destructive enterprise," he says.

"Tonight I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular success."

As much as we didn't want this to happen, I hope to god that this has had the impact on Fordow that they wanted. Otherwise, if a dozen bombs hasn't done the job, the orange prick will absolutely go nuclear

[Blackmac]

For once the Iranians must be concerned that they are not the most irrational people in the room.

[Hal Jordan]

It's a good thing America doesn't have a 22 year old in charge of the anti-terrorism people, hasn't sent half the FBI off to support ICE raids, doesn't have a drunk in charge of the Defence Department, didn't let a drug addict gut many of its institutions and doesn't have a senile, weak old man at the top get led by the nose due to his fatal attraction for strong men.

Also, the cult's pivot from "Evil Biden will start wars" to "Dear Leader has started a war! Huzzah!" is as predicable as it is maddening.

[_Os_]

Israel want's to reduce the threat from Iran, ideally to eliminate it altogther. They want Iran to be more like a Turkey or Saudi Arabia, even though their realtionships are not great, these nations are still not an overt threat to Israel the way Iran is. Yes, even better would be an Iran like it was pre- revolution when the two countries had good relations.

Destroying Iran as a functioning nation is recognised as being not particularly feasible and anyway not ideal for Israel

I suspect this is a fairly accurate representation of the Israeli government's aims/hopes regarding the current situation

https://x.com/udschachter/status/1935863338367320208

The basic reason for the revolution was the being ruled by a brutal dictator who put the interests of the West above his country. Basically no Iranian wants that again. No doubt they would like it be like Saudi, which is the Western backed dictatorship model (note how there's never any anti-Saudi propaganda regarding how they treat women or attempts to undermine their regime using the mask of women's rights).

They wouldn't want it to be like Turkey, it is democratic which means there's potential for them to turn on Israel. Very obviously Turkey will be the next place Israelis endlessly obsess over and want attacked once Iran is destroyed by the US.

And that is is the plan, they want to bomb Iran into being a crazy shithole. The only countries they want in their entire expanded region are dictatorships controlled by the West or broken shitholes. It is the literal plan.

Part of the reason for the revolution was getting rid of the pro western dictator, but the reason for the Islamic revolution was also, well, the Islamic part. Implementing a conservative Islamic theocracy. And look how well that's gone. Israel's relationship with Turkey has deteriorated as Turkey has become more Islamic and authoritarian under Erdogan, but it's still much better than it's relationship with Suadi Arabia.

Too reductionist chief. Any revolution in a large complex society will have a lot of different streams flowing into it.

Iran also has these two elements:

Civic nationalism. It's usually the case in a multi ethnic society that if a minority group feels they're treated well they become more loyal than the majority group (reverse is also true). Khamenei's father was Azeri (Turkic). The British have just arrested a British national for spying on their base in Cyrus, who is Azeri and suspected of working for the IRGC. Iran has the largest Jewish population in the ME outside Israel, there are some Jews loyal to Iran above Israel, which is maybe how Iran is able to get some quite significant intelligence on Israel, Israel has arrested some Israeli national Iranians during this conflict (very likely Jews loyal to Iran).

Democracy. From our point of view Iran is a brutal dictatorship, but it's undeniable they're more democratic than the Gulf dictatorships. They have elections with a high participation rate, the contest is between those who want reforms and those who do not. There's some free expression of views allowed. My suspicion is this is all fake, but at the same time Israel definitely exploited this limited amount of openness to setup the drone base inside Iran etc.

It's more of a nationalist revolution than a purely Islamic one, the Islamic stuff ends up being more a tool used by the IRGC against dissidents. A means to an end, rather than the end itself (very different from the Wahhabis in Saudi). Women's rights activist in both Saudi and Iran are treated harshly as it's interpreted (probably correctly) as an attack on the regime by foreign forces and not just a civil rights issue (amusingly, Iran blames the West whilst Saudis blame Iran). Recent reforms in Saudi have made the situation for women in Saudi more similar to women in Iran, but it's unlikely women will be running for parliament (what elections?) in Saudi any time soon like in Iran, or gaining a reputation for scientific achievement (an Iranian woman has won the Fields Medal, the highest award in science, not many women winning those). Some of the dumber Israeli propaganda was the women fighter pilots stuff, Iranian women very likely contributed to the missiles raining down on Israel.

All this stuff matters if the goal is regime change (which it is). The regime is supported by 20%-ish, the rest mostly want full democracy and have enough democracy now to discern what is fake and real. They'll likely vote for a nationalist who is unacceptable to the West, as Mosaddegh was.

[lemonhead]

Well, that settles it.

Schrödinger's centrifuge.

[fishfoodie]

Just looked at heating oil prices in the hope of filling the tank before it goes nuts ...... too late

Putin will be very happy, the cunt

[Uncle fester]

Now is the time for peace

[Biffer]

The Iranians will be looking at the countries that had nuclear programmes, like Iraq and Libya, and gave them up. Those regimes were toppled. And they'll be looking at North Korea, who refused to give theirs up. And the regime still exists. What would you do?

[Slick]

Well, that settles it.

Schrödinger's centrifuge.

What are we looking at here

[lemonhead]

Well, that settles it.

Schrödinger's centrifuge.

What are we looking at here

Quite.

I mean, photos have since emerged of the site before and after - some shifting sands, a few molehills etc. Point being we haven't a clue how successful this bombing was and likely won't.

[geordie_6]

Well, that settles it.

Schrödinger's centrifuge.

What are we looking at here

Quite.

I mean, photos have since emerged of the site before and after - some shifting sands, a few molehills etc. Point being we haven't a clue how successful this bombing was and likely won't.

Interestingly, satellite imagery has also shown a significant number of trucks around the Fordow site in the days before the US attack. Suggestion is that they've trucked some/all of the material and instruments to other locations.

[Sandstorm]

What are we looking at here

Quite.

I mean, photos have since emerged of the site before and after - some shifting sands, a few molehills etc. Point being we haven't a clue how successful this bombing was and likely won't.

Interestingly, satellite imagery has also shown a significant number of trucks around the Fordow site in the days before the US attack. Suggestion is that they've trucked some/all of the material and instruments to other locations.

They moved the uranium to Turkey. Let’s bomb them next.

[geordie_6]

Quite.

I mean, photos have since emerged of the site before and after - some shifting sands, a few molehills etc. Point being we haven't a clue how successful this bombing was and likely won't.

Interestingly, satellite imagery has also shown a significant number of trucks around the Fordow site in the days before the US attack. Suggestion is that they've trucked some/all of the material and instruments to other locations.

They moved the uranium to Turkey. Let’s bomb them next.

Would not surprise me if that sort of thing became their justification for further bombing.

"They moved it from Fordow to Basab, let's bomb there next!"

"The agents were wrong, it's in Tehran. Fire up the B2s!"

[Uncle fester]

Seeing as they seem to know the home addresses of all the top brass, I assume they also know where everything is.

Colour me skeptical re the nuclear bit though.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Is the uranium metal important as things stand? We know they can enrich uranium. We don't know where they stand shaping it into a metal to build a bomb, and we don't know where they stand vis a vis exploding said bomb to actually cause a nuclear explosion. All the warnings are around being able to enrich, which doesn't helpfully speak to Iran being able to build an actual WMD. Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

[Calculon]

Mark Felton'slatest is on Iran and petty good

[Sandstorm]

Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

It'll be shared on Signal any day now.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Is the uranium metal important as things stand? We know they can enrich uranium. We don't know where they stand shaping it into a metal to build a bomb, and we don't know where they stand vis a vis exploding said bomb to actually cause a nuclear explosion. All the warnings are around being able to enrich, which doesn't helpfully speak to Iran being able to build an actual WMD. Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

Enriching Uranium to weapons grade is a massive undertaking - you need thousands and thousands of centrifuges. Once you have it, building a nuclear bomb is the easy part as the physics are pretty well understood.

A chap I used to work with had been a machinist at Aldermaston and was talking about machining plutonium on a lathe for use in the warheads. Apart from having to use the controls through protective rubber and the sparks when you machined it, he said it was relatively straightforward.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Is the uranium metal important as things stand? We know they can enrich uranium. We don't know where they stand shaping it into a metal to build a bomb, and we don't know where they stand vis a vis exploding said bomb to actually cause a nuclear explosion. All the warnings are around being able to enrich, which doesn't helpfully speak to Iran being able to build an actual WMD. Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

Enriching Uranium to weapons grade is a massive undertaking - you need thousands and thousands of centrifuges. Once you have it, building a nuclear bomb is the easy part as the physics are pretty well understood.

A chap I used to work with had been a machinist at Aldermaston and was talking about machining plutonium on a lathe for use in the warheads. Apart from having to use the controls through protective rubber and the sparks when you machined it, he said it was relatively straightforward.

And the exploding it part, or indeed imploding it part?

I'm not saying enriching is nothing, but clearly they know how to do that and we basically can't stop them, unless someone puts boots on the ground and actually controls the country

[Slick]

Is the uranium metal important as things stand? We know they can enrich uranium. We don't know where they stand shaping it into a metal to build a bomb, and we don't know where they stand vis a vis exploding said bomb to actually cause a nuclear explosion. All the warnings are around being able to enrich, which doesn't helpfully speak to Iran being able to build an actual WMD. Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

Enriching Uranium to weapons grade is a massive undertaking - you need thousands and thousands of centrifuges. Once you have it, building a nuclear bomb is the easy part as the physics are pretty well understood.

A chap I used to work with had been a machinist at Aldermaston and was talking about machining plutonium on a lathe for use in the warheads. Apart from having to use the controls through protective rubber and the sparks when you machined it, he said it was relatively straightforward.

And the exploding it part, or indeed imploding it part?

I'm not saying enriching is nothing, but clearly they know how to do that and we basically can't stop them, unless someone puts boots on the ground and actually controls the country

It does somewhat surprise me that North Korea, who basically run the country off a couple of Acorn Electrons, apparently have nukes and Iran hasn't

[Hal Jordan]

Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

It'll be shared on Signal any day now.

Amusingly/depressingly, the Administration has been trumpeting about how there were "zero leaks" about the raid before it happened.

In normal times, one would expect this to be the bare minimum expected, but with this lot? One can only assume Hesgeth was plied with booze to the point of stupefaction and someone dangled a shiny object in front of Trump whilst they whisked his mobile away behind his back.

[Uncle fester]

Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

It'll be shared on Signal any day now.

Amusingly/depressingly, the Administration has been trumpeting about how there were "zero leaks" about the raid before it happened.

In normal times, one would expect this to be the bare minimum expected, but with this lot? One can only assume Hesgeth was plied with booze to the point of stupefaction and someone dangled a shiny object in front of Trump whilst they whisked his mobile away behind his back.

Hersch was reporting that US were going to hit Iran over the weekend.

[tabascoboy]

Since Trump has this constant desire for approval I wouldn't rule this claim out

https://bsky.app/profile/gregsargent.bs ... bfrs6krk2e

Amazing. NYT has more confirmation that Trump's decision to bomb Iran was motivated in large part by the way the Israeli strikes were "playing" on Fox News, which drove him to want credit for it

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Is the uranium metal important as things stand? We know they can enrich uranium. We don't know where they stand shaping it into a metal to build a bomb, and we don't know where they stand vis a vis exploding said bomb to actually cause a nuclear explosion. All the warnings are around being able to enrich, which doesn't helpfully speak to Iran being able to build an actual WMD. Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

Enriching Uranium to weapons grade is a massive undertaking - you need thousands and thousands of centrifuges. Once you have it, building a nuclear bomb is the easy part as the physics are pretty well understood.

A chap I used to work with had been a machinist at Aldermaston and was talking about machining plutonium on a lathe for use in the warheads. Apart from having to use the controls through protective rubber and the sparks when you machined it, he said it was relatively straightforward.

And the exploding it part, or indeed imploding it part?

I'm not saying enriching is nothing, but clearly they know how to do that and we basically can't stop them, unless someone puts boots on the ground and actually controls the country

That is the exploding part. You need the right size and shape to smash together. To get decent yields this needs to be quite precise.

I assume that Israel/USA have a pretty good idea of where everything is and how much material Iran has. They have put quite a lot of effort in to disrupting the process over the years

[fishfoodie]

Is the uranium metal important as things stand? We know they can enrich uranium. We don't know where they stand shaping it into a metal to build a bomb, and we don't know where they stand vis a vis exploding said bomb to actually cause a nuclear explosion. All the warnings are around being able to enrich, which doesn't helpfully speak to Iran being able to build an actual WMD. Clearly Israel and the USA could have much more and much more detailed info (granted I'm not sure the fat one would have read it)

Enriching Uranium to weapons grade is a massive undertaking - you need thousands and thousands of centrifuges. Once you have it, building a nuclear bomb is the easy part as the physics are pretty well understood.

A chap I used to work with had been a machinist at Aldermaston and was talking about machining plutonium on a lathe for use in the warheads. Apart from having to use the controls through protective rubber and the sparks when you machined it, he said it was relatively straightforward.

And the exploding it part, or indeed imploding it part?

I'm not saying enriching is nothing, but clearly they know how to do that and we basically can't stop them, unless someone puts boots on the ground and actually controls the country

The enrichment is literally & figuratively the "big" part !

The Manhattan Project spent 99% of the money spent on building the Oak Ridge & Hanford plants, & the engineering behind them, the science was pennies compared to it.

The enrichment facilities are also importantly BIG !, i.e. they are something you can drop a bomb on, & the amount of equipment needed to construct them means that your Intelligence services don't have a very hard time finding them, & then the military or the Intelligence services can target them.

Once you have the material, you can then build the bomb in a well equipped lab or workshop, which is infinitely harder to locate, & the Iranians can probably build 50 of them, so they can play a shell game with Israel on which one is building the bomb. This is probably why the Israelis prefer to target the individual experts in the hope of degrading the effort that way.

[Blackmac]

"Operation Announciation of Victory". FFS, Mental batards.

[Uncle fester]

Missiles on their way to Qatar I believe.

[fishfoodie]

Missiles on their way to Qatar I believe.

If I were the Iranians I'd be trying for the tankers & AWACs; without them it's much harder to repeat the raid & it destroys things that are hard to replace

[Uncle fester]

Missiles on their way to Qatar I believe.

If I were the Iranians I'd be trying for the tankers & AWACs; without them it's much harder to repeat the raid & it destroys things that are hard to replace

It seems this is somewhat symbolic.

Iran gave advance notice of its plans to launch a missile attack against US bases in the Middle East, the New York Times is reporting.

Three Iranian officials said they had coordinated its strikes with Qatari officials in a bid to minimise casualties.

Donald Trump was also aware of the attack in advance, Axios reported.

The attack was designed to show Iran could respond to America’s attacks on its nuclear facilities but also give both sides an exit strategy.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Enriching Uranium to weapons grade is a massive undertaking - you need thousands and thousands of centrifuges. Once you have it, building a nuclear bomb is the easy part as the physics are pretty well understood.

A chap I used to work with had been a machinist at Aldermaston and was talking about machining plutonium on a lathe for use in the warheads. Apart from having to use the controls through protective rubber and the sparks when you machined it, he said it was relatively straightforward.

And the exploding it part, or indeed imploding it part?

I'm not saying enriching is nothing, but clearly they know how to do that and we basically can't stop them, unless someone puts boots on the ground and actually controls the country

The enrichment is literally & figuratively the "big" part !

The Manhattan Project spent 99% of the money spent on building the Oak Ridge & Hanford plants, & the engineering behind them, the science was pennies compared to it.

The enrichment facilities are also importantly BIG !, i.e. they are something you can drop a bomb on, & the amount of equipment needed to construct them means that your Intelligence services don't have a very hard time finding them, & then the military or the Intelligence services can target them.

Once you have the material, you can then build the bomb in a well equipped lab or workshop, which is infinitely harder to locate, & the Iranians can probably build 50 of them, so they can play a shell game with Israel on which one is building the bomb. This is probably why the Israelis prefer to target the individual experts in the hope of degrading the effort that way.

They've had enriched uranium for decades, so far as we know they've never built a working bomb. Which suggests it's not in all ways easy to shape a bomb and derive the required implosion. Or maybe Iran wants the wriggle room between having the material and never taking that next step, that seems unlikely to me, but I'm wrong often enough perhaps that was/is their thinking

[fishfoodie]

And the exploding it part, or indeed imploding it part?

I'm not saying enriching is nothing, but clearly they know how to do that and we basically can't stop them, unless someone puts boots on the ground and actually controls the country

The enrichment is literally & figuratively the "big" part !

The Manhattan Project spent 99% of the money spent on building the Oak Ridge & Hanford plants, & the engineering behind them, the science was pennies compared to it.

The enrichment facilities are also importantly BIG !, i.e. they are something you can drop a bomb on, & the amount of equipment needed to construct them means that your Intelligence services don't have a very hard time finding them, & then the military or the Intelligence services can target them.

Once you have the material, you can then build the bomb in a well equipped lab or workshop, which is infinitely harder to locate, & the Iranians can probably build 50 of them, so they can play a shell game with Israel on which one is building the bomb. This is probably why the Israelis prefer to target the individual experts in the hope of degrading the effort that way.

They've had enriched uranium for decades, so far as we know they've never built a working bomb. Which suggests it's not in all ways easy to shape a bomb and derive the required implosion. Or maybe Iran wants the wriggle room between having the material and never taking that next step, that seems unlikely to me, but I'm wrong often enough perhaps that was/is their thinking

Yeah, you're agreeing with the UN & US Intelligence, & probably the Mossad as well, but since when has that ever stopped Politicians from claiming otherwise ?

There are other components to get, like designs that achieve the required compression thru implosion, but Ulam got this worked out in a few months with far inferior electronics & explosives than the Iranians have available to them today; he just used steel blanks spheres so didn't need any uranium to perfect his design. With the basics out there on the web & a bit of CFD a Physics grad can probably work out a design.

Tritium is another component that is nice to have, but it can be bought from obliging friends like Pakistan or North Korea, if someone has knocked holes in your reactors.

Iran might not actually have a nuclear warhead, but might have acquired all the parts & expertise to build one within a matter of weeks, for when they needed one !