The current state of play - your predictions

[Hugo]

Amidst all the chaos of this year and the starts of the 20s it feels like we are at a major crossroads in history.

With issues like the US election, global pandemic, China & Hong Kong, Islamic terrorism in Europe & the Black Lives Matter movement there are a number of battles taking place that once settled will determine the direction the world heads in.

Secularism v religion, the nation-state v globalism, diversity/multiculturalism v an attachment to an ethno state, climate change v climate deniers which is perhaps the most overlooked but critically important issue of the lot.

Do you have any predictions for the next 10 years or so? Who are going to be the major winners and losers?

[Hugo]

More and more its looking like the 90s was a wasted decade. The issue of climate change, global warming, acid rain, CFCs came to the forefront in the late 80s. The issue of Islamic terrorism became more pressing as the decade rolled along but was not properly respected.

A lot of people were asleep at the wheel in the 90s and now we have to dig out of the holes that were created.

[Hal Jordan]

Climate change is going to absolutely fuck us. The feedback loops have started with methane escaping from melting permafrost in Siberia and now, apparently, the Artic.

[Ted.]

Climate change is going to absolutely fuck us. The feedback loops have started with methane escaping from melting permafrost in Siberia and now, apparently, the Artic.

Scary as all hell. If we factor in that the various milestones that have been put in front of us are quite conservative, our window of opportunity to avoid major, life altering changes to our planet, even the potential for the extinction of our species, undoubtedly along with many other others, is rapidly closing.

Hugo, you missed out Putin, Russia's destabilising influence, primarily targeted at the west and Russia's desire to re-empire. I don't think those last two are mutually exclusive.

[Sandstorm]

More and more its looking like the 90s was a wasted decade. The issue of climate change, global warming, acid rain, CFCs came to the forefront in the late 80s. The issue of Islamic terrorism became more pressing as the decade rolled along but was not properly respected.

A lot of people were asleep at the wheel in the 90s and now we have to dig out of the holes that were created.

The opportunity came and went in Nov 2000 when Dubya won instead of Gore.

[Hal Jordan]

What happens when Putin eventually goes is a sobering thought.

[Insane_Homer]

Trump will lose resoundingly, then contest that the whole thing was rigged and refuse to leave office and use his newly appointed chums on the Supreme Court to foister that agenda. After a brief but hysterical episode, were he then tries to pardon himself, he'll be forcibly removed from power by the military and live out 18 months in Russian before being novichoked by the people he owes $400 million

[Hal Jordan]

Let's hope.

[Sandstorm]

Trump will lose resoundingly, then contest that the whole thing was rigged and refuse to leave office and use his newly appointed chums on the Supreme Court to foister that agenda. After a brief but hysterical episode, were he then tries to pardon himself, he'll be forcibly removed from power by the military and live out 18 months in Russian before being novichoked by the people he owes $400 million

I’d go to the cinema during Covid to watch that Thriller.

[Insane_Homer]

Trump will lose resoundingly, then contest that the whole thing was rigged and refuse to leave office and use his newly appointed chums on the Supreme Court to foister that agenda. After a brief but hysterical episode, were he then tries to pardon himself, he'll be forcibly removed from power by the military and live out 18 months in Russian before being novichoked by the people he owes $400 million

I’d go to the cinema during Covid to watch that Thriller.

If you're looking for something similar, but don't want to risk killing Bimbo's father in law, you can just stream VEEP on catchup.

[boere wors]

More and more its looking like the 90s was a wasted decade. The issue of climate change, global warming, acid rain, CFCs came to the forefront in the late 80s. The issue of Islamic terrorism became more pressing as the decade rolled along but was not properly respected.

A lot of people were asleep at the wheel in the 90s and now we have to dig out of the holes that were created.

The opportunity came and went in Nov 2000 when Dubya won instead of Gore.

Good point, i still wonder sometimes what would have been if Gore had become president...

[Sandstorm]

More and more its looking like the 90s was a wasted decade. The issue of climate change, global warming, acid rain, CFCs came to the forefront in the late 80s. The issue of Islamic terrorism became more pressing as the decade rolled along but was not properly respected.

A lot of people were asleep at the wheel in the 90s and now we have to dig out of the holes that were created.

The opportunity came and went in Nov 2000 when Dubya won instead of Gore.

Good point, i still wonder sometimes what would have been if Gore had become president...

Green Energy. No more crap in the Middle East. 3/4 of all our problems goooorn.

Happy Days

[JPNZ]

I’d bet on trump winning again in a week or so. Going to be even more interesting in the US when he does.

COVID is going to get worse in 2021 and peak (hopefully) sometime that year.

I’m not a climate denier but I do believe as is in history that the earth warms and cools in cycles. If climate change is going to kill human kind then I hate to tell you but minuscule changes by groups of people right now are going to have no effect when countries like China and the USA continue to pollute like they do. Whatever makes you feel better about yourself though. Most of us will be dead when things go pear shaped.

[yermum]

we is fucked.

[Theflier]

I predict nothing extroadinary will happen, and keep not happening. Any side effects of global warming, will be mostly mitigated by global greening and expanison of the antartic, biodiversity will continue to shrink, although at a much reduced rate thanks to conservational efforts. Small scale terror will continue, and the eternal power struggle of liberalism and conservatism will continue. Africa and the middle east will continue to be a cesspit, china, NK and russia will continue to be communist hell holes.

I do think the EU will fall apart -5 years after we break clean off.

Though we will return to the moon in the next decade, doubt it for Mars.

[Un Pilier]

FFS if I want to get more depressed I’ll watch Leicester Tigers. Perleaaase!

[Openside]

I’d bet on trump winning again in a week or so. Going to be even more interesting in the US when he does.

COVID is going to get worse in 2021 and peak (hopefully) sometime that year.

I’m not a climate denier but I do believe as is in history that the earth warms and cools in cycles. If climate change is going to kill human kind then I hate to tell you but minuscule changes by groups of people right now are going to have no effect when countries like China and the USA continue to pollute like they do. Whatever makes you feel better about yourself though. Most of us will be dead when things go pear shaped.

not sure if true but read that when that volcano erupted a few years ago it pumped more carbon into the atmosphere in 2 days than we pollute in 20 years or some such

[Kiap]

I’d bet on trump winning again in a week or so. Going to be even more interesting in the US when he does.

COVID is going to get worse in 2021 and peak (hopefully) sometime that year.

I’m not a climate denier but I do believe as is in history that the earth warms and cools in cycles. If climate change is going to kill human kind then I hate to tell you but minuscule changes by groups of people right now are going to have no effect when countries like China and the USA continue to pollute like they do. Whatever makes you feel better about yourself though. Most of us will be dead when things go pear shaped.

not sure if true but read that when that volcano erupted a few years ago it pumped more carbon into the atmosphere in 2 days than we pollute in 20 years or some such

Untrue

[Hugo]

Climate change is going to absolutely fuck us. The feedback loops have started with methane escaping from melting permafrost in Siberia and now, apparently, the Artic.

Scary as all hell. If we factor in that the various milestones that have been put in front of us are quite conservative, our window of opportunity to avoid major, life altering changes to our planet, even the potential for the extinction of our species, undoubtedly along with many other others, is rapidly closing.

Hugo, you missed out Putin, Russia's destabilising influence, primarily targeted at the west and Russia's desire to re-empire. I don't think those last two are mutually exclusive.

Didn't see this 'til now, yeah fully agree on both points.

It speaks to my point about how the 90s was a wasted decade, Russia not being brought into the fold after the Cold War was definitely a huge opportunity wasted.

On the environment Bill Clinton was mostly apathetic. Al Gore tore his hair out trying to get Clinton to care about environmental issues and engage in addressing the problems. Stephanopolous, Dick Morris, Rahm all opposed Clinton making the environment a signature issue because they believed there were no votes in it. Essentially this left Gore fighting a lone battle and made it easy for him to be written off as a bit of a tree hugging kook and an extremist by the wider world.

[mat the expat]

I’d bet on trump winning again in a week or so. Going to be even more interesting in the US when he does.

COVID is going to get worse in 2021 and peak (hopefully) sometime that year.

I’m not a climate denier but I do believe as is in history that the earth warms and cools in cycles. If climate change is going to kill human kind then I hate to tell you but minuscule changes by groups of people right now are going to have no effect when countries like China and the USA continue to pollute like they do. Whatever makes you feel better about yourself though. Most of us will be dead when things go pear shaped.

not sure if true but read that when that volcano erupted a few years ago it pumped more carbon into the atmosphere in 2 days than we pollute in 20 years or some such

Virologist AND Volcanologist?

And JPNZ, that is exactly what deniers spout

[Tilly Orifice]

I’d bet on trump winning again in a week or so. Going to be even more interesting in the US when he does.

COVID is going to get worse in 2021 and peak (hopefully) sometime that year.

I’m not a climate denier but I do believe as is in history that the earth warms and cools in cycles. If climate change is going to kill human kind then I hate to tell you but minuscule changes by groups of people right now are going to have no effect when countries like China and the USA continue to pollute like they do. Whatever makes you feel better about yourself though. Most of us will be dead when things go pear shaped.

not sure if true but read that when that volcano erupted a few years ago it pumped more carbon into the atmosphere in 2 days than we pollute in 20 years or some such

Virologist AND Volcanologist?

And JPNZ, that is exactly what deniers spout

Or shortly thereafter. That's a disappointing post JPNZ.

[Glaston]

Tinfoil hat salesmen will be minted.

[Openside]

I’d bet on trump winning again in a week or so. Going to be even more interesting in the US when he does.

COVID is going to get worse in 2021 and peak (hopefully) sometime that year.

I’m not a climate denier but I do believe as is in history that the earth warms and cools in cycles. If climate change is going to kill human kind then I hate to tell you but minuscule changes by groups of people right now are going to have no effect when countries like China and the USA continue to pollute like they do. Whatever makes you feel better about yourself though. Most of us will be dead when things go pear shaped.

not sure if true but read that when that volcano erupted a few years ago it pumped more carbon into the atmosphere in 2 days than we pollute in 20 years or some such

Untrue

Jeez you really cannot trust anything you read these days.

Actually on reflection it was more carbon than our efforts at emission reductions had saved...but still probably BS

[Openside]

I’d bet on trump winning again in a week or so. Going to be even more interesting in the US when he does.

COVID is going to get worse in 2021 and peak (hopefully) sometime that year.

I’m not a climate denier but I do believe as is in history that the earth warms and cools in cycles. If climate change is going to kill human kind then I hate to tell you but minuscule changes by groups of people right now are going to have no effect when countries like China and the USA continue to pollute like they do. Whatever makes you feel better about yourself though. Most of us will be dead when things go pear shaped.

not sure if true but read that when that volcano erupted a few years ago it pumped more carbon into the atmosphere in 2 days than we pollute in 20 years or some such

Virologist AND Volcanologist?

And JPNZ, that is exactly what deniers spout

Mat by that logic I take it, If you read the cooking instructions on the back of your pot noodle that means you think you are Heston Blumenthal?

[Biffer]

Interesting article about energy, and it’s costs going the same way as data.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54723147

The key bit in here for me is

Thirty years ago there was an inherent physical cost to every newspaper printed or photo taken. Now that everything is digital, the only limit on how much we read or post on Instagram is the number of hours in our day.
RethinkX argues that instead of simply replacing existing fossil fuel plants with wind and solar - and then worrying about the cost of plugging those big intermittency gaps - we should just build more and more and more wind and solar, perhaps several times the capacity of the existing electricity grid.
Remember, the more we build, the cheaper it gets. So long as we spread them over a wide enough area we'll always get some power. And we can plug the few small gaps remaining with batteries or other power plants.
And here's the thing. On sunny and windy days we'll have a huge surplus of electricity at pretty much no extra cost.
What could you do with huge amounts of cheap power?
You'll certainly want to use it to make more wind turbines and solar panels. But what about electrolysing water to produce hydrogen that can heat homes, power trucks and ships, or make steel? You could power machines to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
Or how about a plant to make carbon-neutral aviation fuel from that hydrogen and carbon dioxide? Or a desalination plant to irrigate a desert?

So we redefine the economic prerogative of getting maximum sweat out of our assets and instead re-examine the maximum ROI in terms of extended lifetimes versus intermittent availability of ultra cheap power. It becomes a different model of minimisation of shareholder value, which doesn’t focus on immediate return. By definition sustainability becomes part of the business model.

[mat the expat]

Virologist AND Volcanologist?

And JPNZ, that is exactly what deniers spout

Mat by that logic I take it, If you read the cooking instructions on the back of your pot noodle that means you think you are Heston Blumenthal?

Well, I did study Volcanology and a bit of Epidemiology during my degree and have worked as a cook many times.....

I have some grounding in the science behind them...

[Openside]

Virologist AND Volcanologist?

And JPNZ, that is exactly what deniers spout

Mat by that logic I take it, If you read the cooking instructions on the back of your pot noodle that means you think you are Heston Blumenthal?

Well, I did study Volcanology and a bit of Epidemiology during my degree and have worked as a cook many times.....

I have some grounding in the science behind them...

[Bimbowomxn]

10 years.

China grows using carbon power.

India grows using carbon power.

West handicaps itself to windmills.

Over all it’ll still be the most peaceful decade in earth and mans history.

Let hope something works for Africa and SA.

[Kiap]

10 years.

China grows using carbon power.

India grows using carbon power.

West handicaps itself to windmills.

Over all it’ll still be the most peaceful decade in earth and mans history.

Let hope something works for Africa and SA.

I'm guessing you don''t support carbon subsidies then.

[Plim]

The point about Russia post-Putin is a good one. But even if he stays on for decades or is succeeded by someone with sense and a conscience, Russia will be stuffed when energy and extractables run out or bomb in price for long enough. There is no real Russian economy other than what they can dig up, and that has a shortish life.

Russia is not going to seek a better future by diversification and cooperation. Its neighbours especially, and the rest of us generally, should be very worried.

[Hugo]

The point about Russia post-Putin is a good one. But even if he stays on for decades or is succeeded by someone with sense and a conscience, Russia will be stuffed when energy and extractables run out or bomb in price for long enough. There is no real Russian economy other than what they can dig up, and that has a shortish life.

Russia is not going to seek a better future by diversification and cooperation. Its neighbours especially, and the rest of us generally, should be very worried.

What do you mean by diversification?

I talk regularly to a Russian expatriate who returns often and a couple of weeks ago she was talking about how rapidly Moscow has changed and modernised and also how many Chinese people were there and how their businesses and restaurants are thriving. It was an unprompted comment and I was actually surprised to hear that because the impression we get fed in the media is quite different.

[Ovals]

Climate Change, Pandemics, US Presidents, BLM, Terrorism.............................. But what about the important stuff? Who will win the Rugby World Cup and the Ashes ??????

[Bimbowomxn]

10 years.

China grows using carbon power.

India grows using carbon power.

West handicaps itself to windmills.

Over all it’ll still be the most peaceful decade in earth and mans history.

Let hope something works for Africa and SA.

I'm guessing you don''t support carbon subsidies then.

They don’t really exist except in Greens minds.

[Plim]

The point about Russia post-Putin is a good one. But even if he stays on for decades or is succeeded by someone with sense and a conscience, Russia will be stuffed when energy and extractables run out or bomb in price for long enough. There is no real Russian economy other than what they can dig up, and that has a shortish life.

Russia is not going to seek a better future by diversification and cooperation. Its neighbours especially, and the rest of us generally, should be very worried.

What do you mean by diversification?

I talk regularly to a Russian expatriate who returns often and a couple of weeks ago she was talking about how rapidly Moscow has changed and modernised and also how many Chinese people were there and how their businesses and restaurants are thriving. It was an unprompted comment and I was actually surprised to hear that because the impression we get fed in the media is quite different.

I just meant development of other industries. Russia exports few goods - armaments aside. And it exports few services - training in its armaments aside. It’s a big exporter of grain, but that’s sensitive to weather and harvests.

When I was in Moscow last year I also thought it was a thriving city, but Moscow and its region is disproportionately well off. There’s a lot of Russia to dig, mine and pump, but its economy is not very resilient.

[Insane_Homer]

I predict that Bimbo will post much less of the Coronavirus thread this week as he will now have to spend alot more time on threads and Parlor defending Tommy 'he's an angry elf' Robinson's latest arrest.

win,win.

[Bimbowomxn]

I predict that Bimbo will post much less of the Coronavirus thread this week as he will now have to spend alot more time on threads and Parlor defending Tommy 'he's an angry elf' Robinson's latest arrest.

win,win.

I’ve never defended Robinson, again IH is lying ....


Why do you lie ? I know I make nonsense of most of your posts here. What are you guilty about from the past?

[Openside]

I predict IH will be on again tomorrow to post another chubby inducing list of infections and deaths...

[Insane_Homer]

I predict IH will be on again tomorrow to post another *chubby inducing list of infections and deaths...

well done Nostradamus

* A little worrying that my posting of Govt released daily stats induces you get chubbies. seek help.

[Line6 HXFX]

1) The wealthy have no moral defence from being taxed back into the stone age, such is the endemic and crazy inequality now present in society.
2) That is all they have is Populism, Chaos, Nastiness and Anarchy.
3) We will all realise this soon enough, and begin to tax them all until they all flee the country.
4) We will all be much happier without all the deaths and foodbanks etc.

[Openside]

1) The wealthy have no moral defence from being taxed back into the stone age, such is the endemic and crazy inequality now present in society.
2) That is all they have is Populism, Chaos, Nastiness and Anarchy.
3) We will all realise this soon enough, and begin to tax them all until they all flee the country.
4) We will all be much happier without all the deaths and foodbanks etc.

utterly hatstand. Refry is that you??