We'll have to rely your advice on that, DAC.DAC Clarifies wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:47 pmWhich is actually about 4.5 times as worse as being a Nazi.Hal Jordan wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:45 pm Biden and Harris are of the Left, are they? I suppose they that makes me a full on Communist.
President Trump and US politics catchall
Somehow I don't think this was an epiphany on the [part of Mr Trump.President Donald Trump on Tuesday offered a bitter assessment of his tenure in the White House, saying the experience has been “mean” and marked by “horrible people”
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fishfoodie
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- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
So for me; if Biden is able to get 300 Electoral Votes in the basket; that makes any Legal challenge fundamentally impossible.
The court might be flawed, but they aren't going to strap on suicide vests for some douche bag, pretend Republican
The court might be flawed, but they aren't going to strap on suicide vests for some douche bag, pretend Republican
its not just about winning presidency, the democrats need to keep the senate cause if they lose both the presidency and that, America will be well and truly screwed.
http://rwc19.rf.gd/cnn.html Biden Supporters
http://rwc19.rf.gd/foxnews.html DAC Clarifies :P
http://rwc19.rf.gd/cnn.html Biden Supporters
http://rwc19.rf.gd/foxnews.html DAC Clarifies :P
There is a reason they fast-tracked Coney-Barrett to SCOTUS as they knew what would happen on election day, think of her now as Plan B cause the republicans now control 6 out of the 9 SCOTUS.fishfoodie wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:45 pm So for me; if Biden is able to get 300 Electoral Votes in the basket; that makes any Legal challenge fundamentally impossible.
The court might be flawed, but they aren't going to strap on suicide vests for some douche bag, pretend Republican
JPNZ wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:07 am Trump takes Kentucky, and is off to an 8-3 college vote lead
EDIT: Florida leaning red and if he takes Florida its over.
Trump effectively has to take Florida - Biden doesn't. And the early indicators are that Biden is outperforming Clinton, and it won't take a lot
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fishfoodie
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He has to keep almost all of what he took off Clinton; & that's the fundamental problem for him.Saint wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:11 amJPNZ wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:07 am Trump takes Kentucky, and is off to an 8-3 college vote lead
EDIT: Florida leaning red and if he takes Florida its over.
Trump effectively has to take Florida - Biden doesn't. And the early indicators are that Biden is outperforming Clinton, and it won't take a lot
There are a bunch of states that he won by ~1-2%; & these have all swung against him; if we are to believe the polls.
Let's never forget; he lost the popular vote before.
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fishfoodie
- Posts: 8759
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
Damn .... with 63% reporting; Biden is +2% in Florida
For no other reason than it looked reasonably simple, I'm following the Politico results
https://www.politico.com/
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/
https://www.politico.com/
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/
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fishfoodie
- Posts: 8759
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
Always remember that the the first to report results, are those that weren't ever in doubt !
not a good idea to follow a site going a bit to fast..Ted. wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:39 am For no other reason than it looked reasonably simple, I'm following the Politico results
https://www.politico.com/
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/
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fishfoodie
- Posts: 8759
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm
If we start to see States that he took in 2016 , by ~5%, start to flip ... that ought to be game over.
Similarly; if we start to see GOP Senators getting turfed out; that should we reflect what we can expect in the big race
122 to Biden, 94 to trump now but their graphic is all wrong, the yhave viginnia marked as blue even though trump is winning by 20% i'll follow cnn for now
The bookies have made their pick
Vegas odds yesterday Biden $1.55 - Trump $2.45
Latest vegas odds = Biden $4.00 - Trump = $1.22
Trump will take Florida, Texas and Georgia, is leading in swing states Wis, Mich, Ohio & Pen
Trump is also leading the popular vote by 1.5 million or so
Vegas odds yesterday Biden $1.55 - Trump $2.45
Latest vegas odds = Biden $4.00 - Trump = $1.22
Trump will take Florida, Texas and Georgia, is leading in swing states Wis, Mich, Ohio & Pen
Trump is also leading the popular vote by 1.5 million or so
Not being a gambling man - out of curiosity what do bookies base their odds on when it comes to betting on elections? Is it just recent polling because it's not like a sporting event where you can measure both sides strengths and weaknesses relative to one another and look at recent form etc.JPNZ wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 am The bookies have made their pick
Vegas odds yesterday Biden $1.55 - Trump $2.45
Latest vegas odds = Biden $4.00 - Trump = $1.22
Trump will take Florida, Texas and Georgia, is leading in swing states Wis, Mich, Ohio & Pen
Trump is also leading the popular vote by 1.5 million or so
US presidential elections are a two horse race that seems like a coin toss so how come the odds don't reflect that?
The flow of betting at this point (mostly), you don't want to be actuarially risky: as more coin flows on one direction, hedge by narrowing odds. They will also have something monitoring the polls but even with their post-strat MRP polls, they're still looking totally wrong. Psephology is (and has) always been poorly conceived linear models that very rarely hold in reality: the Georgian and Florida results proving the most embarrassing indictment of that (so far). As the model methodologies are state secrets, we'll never truly know how they're estimating their coefficients but psephology is sitting just above epidemiology and just below macro economics in the pantheon of bad modelling.Hugo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:37 amNot being a gambling man - out of curiosity what do bookies base their odds on when it comes to betting on elections? Is it just recent polling because it's not like a sporting event where you can measure both sides strengths and weaknesses relative to one another and look at recent form etc.JPNZ wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 am The bookies have made their pick
Vegas odds yesterday Biden $1.55 - Trump $2.45
Latest vegas odds = Biden $4.00 - Trump = $1.22
Trump will take Florida, Texas and Georgia, is leading in swing states Wis, Mich, Ohio & Pen
Trump is also leading the popular vote by 1.5 million or so
US presidential elections are a two horse race that seems like a coin toss so how come the odds don't reflect that?
And on the 7th day, the Lord said "Let there be Finn Russell".
So (if I am understanding this right) its all about where the money is and bookies alter the odds to cover potential losses and to try entice punters to bet the other option? Do they use AI to figure this out? I always wondered how the information on where money is waged is shared.Caley_Red wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:59 amThe flow of betting at this point (mostly), you don't want to be actuarially risky: as more coin flows on one direction, hedge by narrowing odds. They will also have something monitoring the polls but even with their post-strat MRP polls, they're still looking totally wrong. Psephology is (and has) always been poorly conceived linear models that very rarely hold in reality: the Georgian and Florida results proving the most embarrassing indictment of that (so far). As the model methodologies are state secrets, we'll never truly know how they're estimating their coefficients but psephology is sitting just above epidemiology and just below macro economics in the pantheon of bad modelling.Hugo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:37 amNot being a gambling man - out of curiosity what do bookies base their odds on when it comes to betting on elections? Is it just recent polling because it's not like a sporting event where you can measure both sides strengths and weaknesses relative to one another and look at recent form etc.JPNZ wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 am The bookies have made their pick
Vegas odds yesterday Biden $1.55 - Trump $2.45
Latest vegas odds = Biden $4.00 - Trump = $1.22
Trump will take Florida, Texas and Georgia, is leading in swing states Wis, Mich, Ohio & Pen
Trump is also leading the popular vote by 1.5 million or so
US presidential elections are a two horse race that seems like a coin toss so how come the odds don't reflect that?