President Trump and US politics catchall

[Kiwias]

Not going to say it's the whole cocktail but the blend of deindustrialization, outsourcing, 'identity politics' and a sense of being taken for granted has evidently been a huge contributory factor. It's the same in the UK, Italy, France and other places where the main central left parties have collapsed recently; that coalition of voters who sued to underpin their base: working class people have abandoned them.

Whether there's a deep philosophy around that is up for the debate but the circumstances contributing to it are pretty undeniable in my view. However, result isn't over by a long way but I expect the demography to confirm that white working class men have pretty much abandoned the Dems and the likes of the so-called 'squad' are unlikely to be winning back those votes soon.

That applies far more to 2016 than 2020. Now people have had four years to see Trump's record in resolving those issues. By most yardsticks, the record is not glittering yet he is still well in the fight to be re-elected.

Those issues haven't gone away but Trump's stance on trade will have played well and he is decisively anti-identity politics. Look at Obama in '12, hadn't brought much of his initial campaign's 'hope' message but people fancied giving him another 4 to see if he could do something, I think people are doing the same here.

Well, Obama had rescued the automobile industry, bailed out the economy (well, Wall Street in the main), and had implemented ACA. But apart from that, I suppose, what did he do for the USA?

[sturginho]

How did Kanye's election bid go?

[Kiwias]

How did Kanye's election bid go?

It went west.

[Gumboot]

Trump looks deflated as he declares victory.

[Gumboot]

How did Kanye's election bid go?

It went west.

Like many other gold diggers.

[Hugo]

Those issues haven't gone away but Trump's stance on trade will have played well and he is decisively anti-identity politics. Look at Obama in '12, hadn't brought much of his initial campaign's 'hope' message but people fancied giving him another 4 to see if he could do something, I think people are doing the same here.

Agreed and look at the alternative - a dinosaur who has been in Washington over 40 years.

And (rightly or wrongly) looked at as a bit of a trojan horse candidate.

Also, the way he ended up candidate was a little sus. Didn't a group of them fall on their own swords prematurely when they still had a pathway to the nomination?

[Slick]

I still think Biden will win this eventually.

Thing is, the only result I really wanted was an utter humiliation for Trump and that isn’t going to happen. So fuck you USA, you are a bunch of imbeciles.

[tc27]

Agree it looks like Biden is stll the favourite.

Trump claiming a stolen election gives him a narrative he can use to explaon his defeat.

[Insane_Homer]

Does look like a slim lead for Biden, Trump tweets showing a bit of panic.

[sturginho]

Does look like a slim lead for Biden, Trump tweets showing a bit of panic.

Where are you seeing this?

[Slick]

Agree it looks like Biden is stll the favourite.

Trump claiming a stolen election gives him a narrative he can use to explaon his defeat.

Yes, his language and demeanour quite revealing. Although he is a grade A loon so who knows

[Raggs]

Unless I'm doing it wrong it looks like trumps won.

[Northern Lights]

Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

Yeah, as much as i dislike the blundering gobshite, Trump is arguably likely to be a better friend to the UK than Biden, especially post-Brexit.

The argument on whether Brexit is a stupid idea is iver, now it is about hoping for the best which in this case the better outcome will be another 4 years of Trump.

[Insane_Homer]

Does look like a slim lead for Biden, Trump tweets showing a bit of panic.

Where are you seeing this?

On his twitter account... (he deleted the first one after spelling polls, poles)

[boere wors]

Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

Yeah, as much as i dislike the blundering gobshite, Trump is arguably likely to be a better friend to the UK than Biden, especially post-Brexit.

The argument on whether Brexit is a stupid idea is iver, now it is about hoping for the best which in this case the better outcome will be another 4 years of Trump.

You should broaden your horizon and see the bigger picture

[Slick]

Good to see a few prominent Republicans coming out to denounce Trumps speech

Even Pence rolled back considerably

[Rinkals]

Biden has no fluidity when he talks. Its honestly painful to watch him stumble through a short address struggling to find words.

I agree.

He certainly not a perfect candidate, but honestly, if you put a chimpanzee forward, it would arguably be a better President than Trump.

[Lobby]

Unless I'm doing it wrong it looks like trumps won.

As Biden has now won Arizona, I think he only needs Wisconsin and Michigan to win the election. If he can get Pennsylvania as well he definitely wins. All three are still too close to call.

[tc27]

Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

Yeah, as much as i dislike the blundering gobshite, Trump is arguably likely to be a better friend to the UK than Biden, especially post-Brexit.

The argument on whether Brexit is a stupid idea is iver, now it is about hoping for the best which in this case the better outcome will be another 4 years of Trump.

TBH I am not sure there is much difference because the main political opposition to any trade deal will be from the UK not the US president or congress - the US will insist on agriculture being part of any FTA and thats absolute political dynamite in the UK

[Lemoentjie]

Everything is setting up nicely for Kanye 2024

It's going to be very funny no matter who wins in 2020. If Trump wins, we can watch obese blue-haired women screaming to the heavens, and if Biden wins we can watch rednecks and Trump himself have very many meltdowns

[boere wors]

Unless I'm doing it wrong it looks like trumps won.

As Biden has now won Arizona, I think he only needs Wisconsin and Michigan to win the election. If he can get Pennsylvania as well he definitely wins. All three are still too close to call.

Wi + MI are close, and only sufficient if he wins Nevada, which seems likely
He wont win in PA though

[Slick]

Unless I'm doing it wrong it looks like trumps won.

As Biden has now won Arizona, I think he only needs Wisconsin and Michigan to win the election. If he can get Pennsylvania as well he definitely wins. All three are still too close to call.

BBC saying Biden is close to winning Michigan and Georgia - he has a 2.5% swing in Georgia with 91% of the votes counted and needs 2.6% swing.

Looks like Pennsylvania is key...

[Insane_Homer]

[boere wors]

Biden is 700k votes behind trump in PA

[Hugo]

What were the pre-election polls/predictions on specifically PA?

Big Biden win, slim Biden win, coin toss?

[Tichtheid]

2020 just keeps on giving.

[boere wors]

What were the pre-election polls/predictions on specifically PA?

Big Biden win, slim Biden win, coin toss?

Slim Biden win. Although in 2016 Trump won.

[Hugo]

What were the pre-election polls/predictions on specifically PA?

Big Biden win, slim Biden win, coin toss?

Slim Biden win. Although in 2016 Trump won.

Thanks.

Looks like Biden now has a slender lead in the Wisconsin tally.

[Northern Lights]

Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

Yeah, as much as i dislike the blundering gobshite, Trump is arguably likely to be a better friend to the UK than Biden, especially post-Brexit.

The argument on whether Brexit is a stupid idea is iver, now it is about hoping for the best which in this case the better outcome will be another 4 years of Trump.

TBH I am not sure there is much difference because the main political opposition to any trade deal will be from the UK not the US president or congress - the US will insist on agriculture being part of any FTA and thats absolute political dynamite in the UK

Biden will be far closer to the EU than Trump and the rhetoric alone will see Trump warmer to Boris and co.

It may not be an all encompasing FTA but there is a better chance of side agreements on various things with Trump in the White House imho.

[stemoc]

i calculated Biden 240-255 and trump at 270-290 .. that is what its gonna b

[boere wors]

What were the pre-election polls/predictions on specifically PA?

Big Biden win, slim Biden win, coin toss?

Slim Biden win. Although in 2016 Trump won.

Thanks.

Looks like Biden now has a slender lead in the Wisconsin tally.

Correct. If he now wins either GA or MI he has the 270 electoral votes (given he wins NV)

[sturginho]

Does look like a slim lead for Biden, Trump tweets showing a bit of panic.

Where are you seeing this?

On his twitter account... (he deleted the first one after spelling polls, poles)

Sorry, I meant where do you see that Biden has a slim lead? I see Trump leading in 5 of the 7 states which are yet to be called

[tc27]

Biden ahead in WI which is apparently significant - this thing could be over by lunchtime.

[Longshanks]

I don't have any preference for President
A dog poo sandwich or a cat poo one
But Trump winning would give me the most laughs (along with a few tears)

[Paddington Bear]

Biden wins with the US still as fractured as ever, and it is messy enough for Trump to cause an almighty stink in the most heavily armed nation on earth. Could hardly be going worse really.

[Uncle fester]

How are they able to complete states like Florida with the amount of postal voting that has taken place?

[Hugo]

Biden ahead in WI which is apparently significant - this thing could be over by lunchtime.

Yeah, Hillary lost WI in 2016 by the tiniest of margins, reputedly did not leave the black churches in Milwaukee and campaign around the state. It would definitely be a significant difference between Biden's performance and hers considering how he does much better with working class white males.

Addressed the issue of police brutality and gun violence at a black church in the spring but never returned to the state after winning the nomination assuming that it was in the bag: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... -wisconsin

[Blake]

How are they able to complete states like Florida with the amount of postal voting that has taken place?

When the votes are allowed to get counted varies from state to state.
Some states started counting earlier but only announced the results on election day, while some states have stupid laws that only allows counting to BEGIN on election day.
This is stupid for multiple obvious reasons, but the biggest one is that mail-in votes take a lot longer to count as 2 envelopes need to be opened per vote and, signatures need to be varified for each ballot.
In-person votes are tabulated much faster depending on the voting machine/system used at the voting location.

It's kind of nuts that the system is so broken that both parties couldn't come to an agreement, pass some measures in anticipation of the expected problem, and allow early and mail-in votes to be counted ahead of time.

[sockwithaticket]

I don't have any preference for President
A dog poo sandwich or a cat poo one
But Trump winning would give me the most laughs (along with a few tears)

More facile 'both sides are the same' nonsense. If Trump's a dog shit sandwich, Biden's porridge. Not exciting, no one's real preference, but an order of magnitude better for you.

[Uncle fester]

How are they able to complete states like Florida with the amount of postal voting that has taken place?

When the votes are allowed to get counter varies from state to state.
Some states started counting earlier but only announced the results on election day, while some states have stupid laws that only allows counting to BEGIN on election day.
This is stupid for multiple obvious reasons, but the biggest one is that mail-in votes take a lot longer to count as 2 envelopes need to be opened per vote and, signatures need to be varied for each ballot.
In-person votes are tabulated much faster depending on the voting machine/system used at the voting location.

It's kind of nuts that the system is so broken that both parties couldn't come to an agreement, pass some measures in anticipation of the expected problem, and allow early and mail-in votes to be counted ahead of time.

Thanks. That makes sense.