Slick wrote: Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:37 am
NL, you are probably the only one who has a good idea what is going on in these negotiations. If you have time at some point could you explain?
Genuine request as I’d like to know
You give me too much credit to know what is going on in the negotiations. I am getting feedback at various points but it's fair to say it is a moving picture. I know what the industry is after which needs to be broken down into what the fishermen want and what the processors want which has some significant differences but there are large areas that they agree on.
The big thing is establishing sovereignty over our own waters and the stock that is in them, the EU do not want to concede this because this is where the long term implications are on for the respective fleets and this is what the UK is pushing for and by rights is actually enshrined in international law so on the bare face of it the EU is actually arguing against established maritime/fisheries law but it is never straight forward as they are leveraging their market access against this which is why this is so stuck.
The latest as has been reported is the EU are prepared to concede anything between 15 to 18% of their existing catch, the ploy from the EU side is that this will then ensure future access to the grounds for their fleet pretty much in perpetuity thereafter at this lower level but it wont go lower than that, this however and is the crucial bit doesnt recognise the UK has full soveriegnity over its waters because if they do recognise this then it is for the UK to manage the stock in its waters and could see the UK changing its quota allocation or even abandon quotasaltogether for other forms of fishery management in the future, which ultimately could see a far greater share being "taken away" from the EU.
Now for the UK they will not sink the deal over fisheries and sovreignity of our waters, that is bonkers on many fronts, the industry is insignifant strategically for this to happen and the industry knows this but they need to get something as it is a political hand grenade if they dont and just roll over completely so the posturing now is going to be on the percentage, encouragingly the EU have finally offered something, I now expect a bit of horse trading on the size of this and it will be established the EU boats will be able to continue in our waters but not as much as before, I would also expect this to be phased in over 3-5 years, it doesnt help us either for get a huge uplift overnight. Management of our waters will likely have some big caveats in it to ensure the EU boats continue to have the same access but actual catch will go up and down dependent on the overall health of the stock
It is the norm for 3rd countries to have access to other fishing grounds but the management is at the behest of the country. If i use the Barents sea as probably the best example, it is jointly shared by Russia and Norway very roughly 40% each with the 3rd countries including the UK able to catch the remaining 20%. The quotas for cod and haddock, being the main species up there and the largest grounds for these species in the world, is determined by Norway and Russia each year using ICES advice and other data and the 3rd party countries just get what is left over based on historical agreements.
There are various other rules/laws in these countries whereby their domestic fiushermen cant sell their quota overseas and the boats must retain at least 51% Norweigian ownership etc for Norway, Russia is even higher cant actually remember where their bar is. Incidentally the UK's historic quota rights in the Barents sea are now actually owned by Icelandic and Dutch companies that are among the largest fishing companies in the world, so we havent exactly been that fussed as a nation over it historically and neither have the fishermen who sold them and sailed off with their huge cheques, this is something that needs to be tightened up amongst other things like landing obligations but i wont get into that here.
The exact landing zone is still unclear but now this move has been made by the EU we are getting a sense that an agreement will be reached and the shaoe of it, the EU has already told the French and their fishermen to stop being unrealistic who have been the most unreasonable to date, so I expect they will get a bung of sorts to decommission some of their fleet, Boris will be able to show an increase in fish for our boats so can claim a win. Both sides havent got what they really wanted but a compromise has been made.
Only state aid and mutual recognition to go...