So, coronavirus...

[Raggs]

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf

From that article it looks like the so called “UK or Kent” variant independently arose in many different countries, some countries had it before the UK. Which does lead to the question: why did it become the dominant variant in the UK but not the other countries?

It may have done. Many countries don't have anywhere near the sequencing rates of the UK.

[Calculon]

may have done what?

[Raggs]

may have done what?

May have become the dominant strain in other countries. The table in the results gives the raw numbers, but doesn't seem to say how many sequences were run. The fewer sequences you run, the less accurate the data will be on which is the dominant strain.

[Calculon]

Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.

[Raggs]

Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.

What? No. Sequencing is not testing. Testing is just a yes/no. Sequencing then determines which variant. It was in the news a while ago, that the UK sequences far far more than any other european country, and that there's a chance the the UK variant didn't start in the UK, it was simply where it was first detected (though I think now they may have found patient zero for it).

[Calculon]

From my partial reading of the article posted by ih: The "UK" variant wasn't first detected in the uk. it has arisen independently several times so there is in a way several patient zeros

[Saint]

Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.

What? No. Sequencing is not testing. Testing is just a yes/no. Sequencing then determines which variant. It was in the news a while ago, that the UK sequences far far more than any other european country, and that there's a chance the the UK variant didn't start in the UK, it was simply where it was first detected (though I think now they may have found patient zero for it).

I believe that the UK has performed almost half the total global Coronavirus sequencing performed since the start of the pandemic - I saw a figure of 44% somewhere

[Calculon]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

[Biffer]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

[JM2K6]

This is a really good article on the practicalities of transmission in schools

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ation.html

[FalseBayFC]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.

[dpedin]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.

This is not correct!

Analysis of nations performance in managing covid19 have shown that none of these factors influence a countries outcomes - Japan has a more aged population, NZ has a higher % of obesity, Germany has a higher level of diabetes in their pop, etc. These factors along with pop size, pop density, etc cannot be used to explain nor excuse the poor performance of the UK in terms of case numbers and deaths per million. In every case a country can be identified with the same or 'worse' issues yet have performed much better than the UK. Researchers tend to suggest it has been the individual countries' Governments PH preparedness, PH policies, speed of response and how they have implemented their PH policies on the ground that have made the difference.

[tc27]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

[FalseBayFC]

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.

This is not correct!

Analysis of nations performance in managing covid19 have shown that none of these factors influence a countries outcomes - Japan has a more aged population, NZ has a higher % of obesity, Germany has a higher level of diabetes in their pop, etc. These factors along with pop size, pop density, etc cannot be used to explain nor excuse the poor performance of the UK in terms of case numbers and deaths per million. In every case a country can be identified with the same or 'worse' issues yet have performed much better than the UK. Researchers tend to suggest it has been the individual countries' Governments PH preparedness, PH policies, speed of response and how they have implemented their PH policies on the ground that have made the difference.

UK has almost the highest level of obesity in Europe. Here in SA, patients with covid and obesity had a very grim outlook.
Who knows what would have happened if Covid had run through the PI and Maori communities in NZ. Japan also has a life expectancy way above that of the UK so its safe to say that their oldies are in better shape.

[Saint]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

[Ovals]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

Exactly. And it's a fair old stretch of the imagination to suggest that some of the countries, with much lower covid death rates, have a better PH preparedness and infrastructure.

[tc27]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

[Calculon]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

[Raggs]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

[Openside]

Had the AstraZeneca yesterday. Got the side effects, injection arm achy, ran hot a few hours ago now cold and weirdly my butt muscles ache. I might have blamed the bed but it started before bed last night. I'm also very tired.

Men don't just wear a shirt to it, put a t-shirt underneath or plan your clothes to make it easier. Way too many bare torso's on view, you have no real privacy.

Jeez I am disappointed adults need to be told this

Worse than Portobello Beach?

erm you have lost me

[Biffer]

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

Either way, there are questions to answer. If it’s not the dominant strain, why not? If it is the dominant strain, why didn’t they have the same surge of deaths post Christmas?

This ‘oh, but new strains’ thing distracts from the point that whether we have a new strain that others don’t, or if both we and they have it, we’ve done fundamentally worse in the UK.

[dpedin]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

[Raggs]

Id say we handled it badly. The tier systems just meant lower tiers were free to get to higher. The lack of enforcement on movement between tiers meant tier 1 areas had a load of incoming traffic.

Christmas was a disaster, 1 day back at school the same.

[Calculon]

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

It seems I made a mistake of what exactly the UK variant is, should probably do some more reading before I write shite on here. Nevertheless, similar variants with similar mutations that are though to increase rate of transmission have been found in many countries. In terms of its prevalence I'm just going on what I've read in news reports.

[Ovals]

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

[Paddington Bear]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

[Raggs]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

A few arseholes will struggle to ruin a nationwide lockdown, since no one else is about anyway. There were 4 guys from Liverpool arrested on the Isle of Wight when it was tier 1, who'd been in numerous pubs etc. Tier systems only work if people stick to them, sure the tier 4 numbers probably improve, but they'd improve with general lockdown anyway.

[Saint]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

The biggest difference between us and most other countries I think was enforcement. Broadly speaking, in the UK the whole thing was run on trust. That's not really what happened on the continent

[I like neeps]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

[Saint]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

[Lobby]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Another factor is that we simply don’t have the police numbers to enforce a strict lockdown. In England there are only 211 police officers per 100,000 people. Germany have 358, France have 429, Italy 456 and Spain 533. Policing here has also been on the basis of consent, rather than being imposed on the population.

[Saint]

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Another factor is that we simply don’t have the police numbers to enforce a strict lockdown. In England there are only 211 police officers per 100,000 people. Germany have 358, France have 429, Italy 456 and Spain 533. Policing here has also been on the basis of consent, rather than being imposed on the population.

True - and when people saw Dominic take a drive (as an example) at least some decided to stop consenting.

It's impossible to quantify the effect that that escapade hade, but it definitely had some sort of impact

[tc27]

[tc27]

An expat friend in Crete tells me you can only leave the house if you text a police number and obtain a pass - if you are found outside without such a pass you are subject to a heavy fine.

Police presence far more noticeable too.

[Line6 HXFX]

It is mainly 10 years of austerity, together with zero hour contracts, and people desperate to make their not much barely survivable cash, motivated just by resentment and the terror of being out of work, with absolutely nothing to fall back on, and who were avoiding getting tested.

It was the perfect storm.

When asked Matt Hancock said it was inexplicable that people (basically the section of society that will spread it most) want to go into work here... ignoring the fact his government specifly and deliberately created this.
I mean it is no mystery, it isn't even controversial.

[Paddington Bear]

For what it's worth I'm not convinced that I'd rather have police checking papers etc than what we have.

[Saint]

Covaxin - India's "home-grown" Covid vaccine - reports 80% efficacy from Phase III completed results. It;s already being deployed in India with an Emergency use authorisation based on interim Phase III results

[Saint]

So around 2-2.5 million or so this week increasing to 4 million or so from halfway through next week then, sustained for at least a couple of weeks.

[sturginho]

For what it's worth I'm not convinced that I'd rather have police checking papers etc than what we have.

We just love freedom too much

[Saint]

And in other vaccine news, it's expected that Novavax will receive MHRA approval late-March/early-April which should significantly improve the vaccine supply situation