So, coronavirus...

[Rinkals]

It was reported today that my state, Georgia, had the fewest new cases since June last year.

That really is interesting.

I'm assuming that Georgia is Trump Heartland and that resistance to mask wearing and lockdown is strong?

What would be the reason for that? Warmer weather? less indoor activities? fewer Trump rallies?

Why do you keep trolling me with Trump stuff? It’s easy to do a bit of research.

Who the hell is trolling?

I specifically explained my interest, namely that I was interested in the implications of the politicisation of pandemic measures. I went on to suggest that there are gaps in our understanding of the effects of the pandemic and I pointed at India as a nation that, by all logic, should have been struck a lot harder than they have been, given the density of their population and the poverty afflicting them.

I suggest that you are being a little over-sensitive.

[Saint]

So the Italian government are saying that these doses were heading towards Belgium - and that the Italian gov were asked to "inspect" the doses, suggesting that the EU knew they were there and were just double checking they hadn't gone anywhere else. I'm left wondering why this has even been reported other than to paint AZ in a worse light

We have an update on a story from the Italian newspaper La Stampa, which had reported that some 29 million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine found at a plant near Rome may have been destined for the UK.

A UK government official has since said it was not expecting such a delivery; and the Italian government has said only that “the batches that were inspected were all aimed for Belgium”.

La Stampa reported that the European Commission asked Italian officials to inspect the doses at the Catalent plant in Anagni at the weekend.

The plant has a contract with AstraZeneca to "fill and finish" its vaccines and is set to do the same for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, also approved for use in the EU.

The discovery comes weeks after the Italian government blocked the export of 250,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia, as part of EU regulations allowing a shipment to be stopped if a company is seen to be failing to meet its obligations to the 27 member states.

[Lobby]

So the Italian government are saying that these doses were heading towards Belgium - and that the Italian gov were asked to "inspect" the doses, suggesting that the EU knew they were there and were just double checking they hadn't gone anywhere else. I'm left wondering why this has even been reported other than to paint AZ in a worse light

We have an update on a story from the Italian newspaper La Stampa, which had reported that some 29 million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine found at a plant near Rome may have been destined for the UK.

A UK government official has since said it was not expecting such a delivery; and the Italian government has said only that “the batches that were inspected were all aimed for Belgium”.

La Stampa reported that the European Commission asked Italian officials to inspect the doses at the Catalent plant in Anagni at the weekend.

The plant has a contract with AstraZeneca to "fill and finish" its vaccines and is set to do the same for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, also approved for use in the EU.

The discovery comes weeks after the Italian government blocked the export of 250,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia, as part of EU regulations allowing a shipment to be stopped if a company is seen to be failing to meet its obligations to the 27 member states.

Belgium’s population is only 11m, so I doubt very much that all 29m doses were intended for Belgium. The whole story seems very dodgy to me, and appears to have been planted to coincide with the EU toughening it’s criteria for preventing companies from meeting their vaccine contracts, and to continue its misinformation campaign in relation to AZ.

[Raggs]

En route to Belgium to be shipped elsewhere i believe.

[Lobby]

En route to Belgium to be shipped elsewhere i believe.

So it appears the doses weren’t magically ‘found’ by the Italian police, but were simply inspected on the EU’s orders, who knew were they were and who they were for. A complete non-story.

[Lisbon Nick]

Just reading about the EU´s proposed 6 week export "cut". Interested to know, if implemented, where this would leave the UK, especially in relation to pfizer. What are the UK`s current requirements for second jabs compared to current pfizer stock levels? Anyone know?

[Saint]

And from the FT

https://www.ft.com/content/48b28b7e-916 ... 89fea2bc12

The Italian government said it was asked on Saturday by the European Commission to “verify” some vaccine batches at the Anagni plant. It deployed a team from the Nuclei Antisofisticazioni and Sanità (NAS), an arm of the Italian police force, to the site between Saturday and Sunday. “The inspected lots were found to be destined for Belgium,” it said in a statement.

Mario Gargiulo, Catalent’s regional biologics president for Europe confirmed the facility had been visited by adding that the NAS had “found the company’s records to be in order”.

“At any one time there will be a balance of vaccine drug substance ready for filling and packaging, and packaged vials awaiting shipment to AstraZeneca’s distribution facilities,” Gargiulo said.

It is not unusual for fill and finish plants such as Anagni to handle large numbers of doses at any one time, and individual vaccine batches can comprise millions of doses. Catalent has no visibility or say over where doses are shipped, a person familiar with the matter said, as that decision rests with the customer — in this case, AstraZeneca.

So far, the only vaccine exports blocked by the EU have been 250,000 AstraZeneca doses from Italy destined for Australia. Officials have repeatedly said they have no issue with other producers such as Pfizer that have met their commitments to the EU.

The French official said that of 314 export requests to the EU, all had been approved except for the Australia shipment. Most of the requests were for the Pfizer vaccine, the official said.

The whole thing appears to have been leaked to the media to try and generate support for an EU export ban

[Saint]

Just reading about the EU´s proposed 6 week export "cut". Interested to know, if implemented, where this would leave the UK, especially in relation to pfizer. What are the UK`s current requirements for second jabs compared to current pfizer stock levels? Anyone know?

No-one knows exact numbers, but I think it would be safe to say that we wouldn't be able to meet the requirement.

[tc27]

Everything's very vague but my understanding is:

Oxford-Astrozenica

- No AZ vaccines are being manufactured in the EU for the UK - a small batch from Leiden was sent over months ago
- The UK's AZ supply now comes either from within the UK or too a much smaller extent India


Pfizer-BioNTech

- Over 10 million doses exported from Belgium to the UK
- Given the relatively low amount of second doses given its likely the UK will need almost the same amount over the next couple of months to complete second doses.

Moderna
- Made in the US which is steaming ahead with its own vaccination programme so unlikely to restrict exports.
- Only small amounts available next month so not going to make a huge difference.

Novavax/Jansen ETC all coming online later this year and will be manufactured in the UK.

So the area of immediate concern is if enough Pfizer cannot be obtained to complete second doses - you would imagine there will be or already is a restriction on giving first injections with this to ensure supply.

[Fangle]

That really is interesting.

I'm assuming that Georgia is Trump Heartland and that resistance to mask wearing and lockdown is strong?

What would be the reason for that? Warmer weather? less indoor activities? fewer Trump rallies?

Why do you keep trolling me with Trump stuff? It’s easy to do a bit of research.

Who the hell is trolling?

I specifically explained my interest, namely that I was interested in the implications of the politicisation of pandemic measures. I went on to suggest that there are gaps in our understanding of the effects of the pandemic and I pointed at India as a nation that, by all logic, should have been struck a lot harder than they have been, given the density of their population and the poverty afflicting them.

I suggest that you are being a little over-sensitive.

Why mention Trump when you know he hasn’t had a rally in months? Why speak disparagingly about Georgia, when a quick search will show that Atlanta has a couple of universities in the top 50, a bunch of Fortune 500 companies with their headquarters in Atlanta, the world’s busiest airport etc., that Georgia voted for Biden and both senators are now Democrat?

[tc27]

FWIW the political position the EU and its member states find themselves in makes the pressure for export bans irresistible - if UK factories were exporting millions of doses whilst our own vaccination programme faltered our government would find it very hard not to do the same.

There's not much to do but make sure we can produce vaccines nationally (already in hand but will take some time). The abrogation of private property will not got unnoticed by investors longer term.

[Glaston]

Whole EU /Italian factory thing gets even more bizarre.

13 million doses were actually imported into the EU and destined for Covax countries
Remaining 16m are for EU use.

[Saint]

Oh dear....

[tc27]

Whole EU /Italian factory thing gets even more bizarre.

13 million doses were actually imported into the EU and destined for Covax countries
Remaining 16m are for EU use.

Things are pretty wild at the moment in Europe - Merkel has just had to cancel a 'firebreak' because she cant sell it politically.

The good news is EU vaccine supply should really start improving next month so hopefully it will settle things down.

[Lobby]

Everything's very vague but my understanding is:

Oxford-Astrozenica

- No AZ vaccines are being manufactured in the EU for the UK - a small batch from Leiden was sent over months ago
- The UK's AZ supply now comes either from within the UK or too a much smaller extent India


Pfizer-BioNTech

- Over 10 million doses exported from Belgium to the UK
- Given the relatively low amount of second doses given its likely the UK will need almost the same amount over the next couple of months to complete second doses.

Moderna
- Made in the US which is steaming ahead with its own vaccination programme so unlikely to restrict exports.
- Only small amounts available next month so not going to make a huge difference.

Novavax/Jansen ETC all coming online later this year and will be manufactured in the UK.

So the area of immediate concern is if enough Pfizer cannot be obtained to complete second doses - you would imagine there will be or already is a restriction on giving first injections with this to ensure supply.

Markell has already spoken out against restricting exports of the Pfizer vaccine because of fears that this could impact the supply chain, so I think the EU will be very wary of shutting down exports of Pfizer, regardless of the new powers they have given themselves.

The big issue will come when the AZ vaccines being made at the Halix plant become available. The UK’s contract with AZ gives the UK priority for these vaccines (although none have been exported yet), and the EU has yet to approve the plant for production for the EU (so can’t use these jabs itself yet). However it seems likely that the UK will offer to share these with the EU when they are available for delivery, which may diffuse the current arguments somewhat.

[tc27]

Agree I have heard a joint EU/UK statement is coming later - cooler heads have prevailed.

[Rinkals]

Why do you keep trolling me with Trump stuff? It’s easy to do a bit of research.

Who the hell is trolling?

I specifically explained my interest, namely that I was interested in the implications of the politicisation of pandemic measures. I went on to suggest that there are gaps in our understanding of the effects of the pandemic and I pointed at India as a nation that, by all logic, should have been struck a lot harder than they have been, given the density of their population and the poverty afflicting them.

I suggest that you are being a little over-sensitive.

Why mention Trump when you know he hasn’t had a rally in months? Why speak disparagingly about Georgia, when a quick search will show that Atlanta has a couple of universities in the top 50, a bunch of Fortune 500 companies with their headquarters in Atlanta, the world’s busiest airport etc., that Georgia voted for Biden and both senators are now Democrat?

Because he was central in the politicising of pandemic.

I thought that was obvious.

You may not agree, though, and that's fine.

[dpedin]

I expect a country wide surge after the kids return from spring break.

I think you're correct. Scotland has seen the decline in cases slow down and are plateauing after school began to go back. However testing numbers and % reporting positive has stayed the same or risen slightly. 7 day case rates have gone up in 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 age groups but continue to fall in the age groups who have been vaccinated. Given there are more folk in younger age groups the overall number of cases is relatively unchanged. This was anticipated and is being monitored - hospitalisations, ICU cases and deaths continue to go in the right direction but of course we don't know about the impact of contracting the virus or long covid in the younger age groups yet. We have to have all pupils back to school full time yet so this picture may change going forward?

Edinburgh's 7 day rate per 100,000 will go back above 50 tomorrow

Spot on - 50.1 per 100,000.

[Rinkals]

Who the hell is trolling?

I specifically explained my interest, namely that I was interested in the implications of the politicisation of pandemic measures. I went on to suggest that there are gaps in our understanding of the effects of the pandemic and I pointed at India as a nation that, by all logic, should have been struck a lot harder than they have been, given the density of their population and the poverty afflicting them.

I suggest that you are being a little over-sensitive.

Why mention Trump when you know he hasn’t had a rally in months? Why speak disparagingly about Georgia, when a quick search will show that Atlanta has a couple of universities in the top 50, a bunch of Fortune 500 companies with their headquarters in Atlanta, the world’s busiest airport etc., that Georgia voted for Biden and both senators are now Democrat?

Maybe but Georgia is still a republican state, Governor (R) • Lieutenant Gov (R), U.S. House delegation 8 R & 6 D.
Also Georgia is one of the worst state regarding covid related deaths and one of the slowest to vaccinate its people.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graph ... 945223002/

Indeed.

They elected Majorie Taylor Greene, so I'm not sure you could really call it a blue state.

[Saint]

Meanwhile trouble from China - it would appear that Sinopharm may require 3 doses in some people as it's not generating a sufficient antibody response.

You might have thought that China's unwillingness to publish the trial data for review might have been a clue that it wasn't all it was cracked up to be

[tabascoboy]

All of the mass vaccination centres in Kent are closing from 1st April for a "few" weeks, due to a drop in supply. Probably 2 - 3 weeks, but wonder if this is general throughout the country?

[Raggs]

All of the mass vaccination centres in Kent are closing from 1st April for a "few" weeks, due to a drop in supply. Probably 2 - 3 weeks, but wonder if this is general throughout the country?

Same is happening near me.

[Saint]

Joint statement

We are all facing the same pandemic and the third wave makes co-operation between the EU and UK even more important.We have been discussing what more we can do to ensure a reciprocally beneficial relationship between the UK and EU on Covid-19.

Given our interdependencies, we are working on specific steps we can take - in the short-, medium - and long term - to create a win-win situation and expand vaccine supply for all our citizens.

In the end, openness and global co-operation of all countries will be key to finally overcome this pandemic and ensure better preparation for meeting future challenges.

We will continue our discussions.

I suspect this means spliting the difference on the stock being built up in Halix, UK/Oxford/AZ to provide further expertise to spin up further production in the EU, UK to ensure Lipid deliveries stay on track, and EU getting priority on UK supply once the UK is complete (assuming they want it) - including Novavax AZ, Velsaca, and/or anything else

In other matters, India has now officially blocked the export AZ to all countries, including Covax, for the moment. Given that they're in the middle of their own surge, that's understandable.

[Lisbon Nick]

I`ve been watching the Portuguese news this evening and got really annoyed to see both Sic noticias and TVI reporting the La Stampa story as gospel, stating all the doses were destined for the UK and using emotive terms such as hidden (as if under the floorboards). The presenter on Sic even got visibly aggressive during a live interview with an expert guest who politely debunked the story but left the presenter a get out by adding there are still some matters to be explained. An hour later the story was repeated but the interview edited to only include the comment about matters to be explained.

I have seen the guest (who has worked with the EMA) several times on news programs and he always stresses the damage these stories do to undermining public confidence in not just AZ but the whole vaccination program and the resulting deaths that will follow. But it appears its all to no avail if it gets in the way of a good story.

I`m 58 next week and god knows when I will get a jab, probably after the summer.

[Saint]

I`ve been watching the Portuguese news this evening and got really annoyed to see both Sic noticias and TVI reporting the La Stampa story as gospel, stating all the doses were destined for the UK and using emotive terms such as hidden (as if under the floorboards). The presenter on Sic even got visibly aggressive during a live interview with an expert guest who politely debunked the story but left the presenter a get out by adding there are still some matters to be explained. An hour later the story was repeated but the interview edited to only include the comment about matters to be explained.

I have seen the guest (who has worked with the EMA) several times on news programs and he always stresses the damage these stories do to undermining public confidence in not just AZ but the whole vaccination program and the resulting deaths that will follow. But it appears its all to no avail if it gets in the way of a good story.

I`m 58 next week and god knows when I will get a jab, probably after the summer.

At this rate, if you're happy with AZ you'll probably be able to get a dose every day for the next month (***I am not a medical professional and am not offering any advice as to whether this is safe). Having massively undermined public trust in the AZ vaccine I'm not really sure why anyone in the EU or national politician is getting worked up about where any of it is going.

At this point it's fairly clear that AZ is the fall guy for the overall failure of EU procurement policy, which is then being positioned as the failure of EU vaccination efforts - conveniently getting national governments off the hook. Any bonus in that AZ can be seen by some as a proxy for the UK is just that - a bonus

[Lobby]

[Saint]

[Ovals]

I`ve been watching the Portuguese news this evening and got really annoyed to see both Sic noticias and TVI reporting the La Stampa story as gospel, stating all the doses were destined for the UK and using emotive terms such as hidden (as if under the floorboards). The presenter on Sic even got visibly aggressive during a live interview with an expert guest who politely debunked the story but left the presenter a get out by adding there are still some matters to be explained. An hour later the story was repeated but the interview edited to only include the comment about matters to be explained.

I have seen the guest (who has worked with the EMA) several times on news programs and he always stresses the damage these stories do to undermining public confidence in not just AZ but the whole vaccination program and the resulting deaths that will follow. But it appears its all to no avail if it gets in the way of a good story.

I`m 58 next week and god knows when I will get a jab, probably after the summer.

At this rate, if you're happy with AZ you'll probably be able to get a dose every day for the next month (***I am not a medical professional and am not offering any advice as to whether this is safe). Having massively undermined public trust in the AZ vaccine I'm not really sure why anyone in the EU or national politician is getting worked up about where any of it is going.

At this point it's fairly clear that AZ is the fall guy for the overall failure of EU procurement policy, which is then being positioned as the failure of EU vaccination efforts - conveniently getting national governments off the hook. Any bonus in that AZ can be seen by some as a proxy for the UK is just that - a bonus

Yes, very much that. And, in doing so, they've hurt their own programme by making the AZ vaccine much less desirable to their own citizens - bad mouthing the AZ vaccine will have cost lives within the EU - far more than the delays will have caused.

[Saint]

In the meantime, Mrs Saint just got her second dose of Pfizer today. So half our household should be virus free

[robmatic]

Meanwhile trouble from China - it would appear that Sinopharm may require 3 doses in some people as it's not generating a sufficient antibody response.

You might have thought that China's unwillingness to publish the trial data for review might have been a clue that it wasn't all it was cracked up to be

Great, that's the only vaccine we are getting in Turkey. Please all feel free to come here on holiday though, we need the money.

[Fangle]

Five days after my second Pfizer shot, my arm is tender and swollen, and my temperature up by a degree.

[sturginho]

Meanwhile trouble from China - it would appear that Sinopharm may require 3 doses in some people as it's not generating a sufficient antibody response.

You might have thought that China's unwillingness to publish the trial data for review might have been a clue that it wasn't all it was cracked up to be

Great, that's the only vaccine we are getting in Turkey. Please all feel free to come here on holiday though, we need the money.

We're not allowed to leave the country!

[tabascoboy]

Five days after my second Pfizer shot, my arm is tender and swollen, and my temperature up by a degree.

Had the first AZ last Friday and been OK but I have a headache coming and going since Monday and some tenderness in the bicep of the arm that had the shot and some general achiness. No rise in temperature though, and for the first two days after the jab I felt fine. Hard to know if it's down to the vaccine or something else.

[tc27]

Meanwhile trouble from China - it would appear that Sinopharm may require 3 doses in some people as it's not generating a sufficient antibody response.

You might have thought that China's unwillingness to publish the trial data for review might have been a clue that it wasn't all it was cracked up to be

Great, that's the only vaccine we are getting in Turkey. Please all feel free to come here on holiday though, we need the money.

Hi Quentin

[robmatic]

Meanwhile trouble from China - it would appear that Sinopharm may require 3 doses in some people as it's not generating a sufficient antibody response.

You might have thought that China's unwillingness to publish the trial data for review might have been a clue that it wasn't all it was cracked up to be

Great, that's the only vaccine we are getting in Turkey. Please all feel free to come here on holiday though, we need the money.

Hi Quentin

Quentin's dead.

[robmatic]

Meanwhile trouble from China - it would appear that Sinopharm may require 3 doses in some people as it's not generating a sufficient antibody response.

You might have thought that China's unwillingness to publish the trial data for review might have been a clue that it wasn't all it was cracked up to be

Great, that's the only vaccine we are getting in Turkey. Please all feel free to come here on holiday though, we need the money.

We're not allowed to leave the country!

Not just me living with authoritarianism then...

[Glaston]

"On Tuesday, the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) said that the pharma giant should review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.
The agency said that the DSMB notified NIAID, BARDA and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on Monday.
The DSMB said AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data.
Analysts at Shore Capital noted that the difference between the interim and the primary data is statistically irrelevant and it is unclear what data has prompted the NIAID’s concerns."


I wonder why ?

[tc27]

Second doses really kicking in now - First 2-3 weeks of April will be almost entirely second doses.

[Saint]

"On Tuesday, the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) said that the pharma giant should review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.
The agency said that the DSMB notified NIAID, BARDA and AstraZeneca that it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on Monday.
The DSMB said AstraZeneca may have included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data.
Analysts at Shore Capital noted that the difference between the interim and the primary data is statistically irrelevant and it is unclear what data has prompted the NIAID’s concerns."


I wonder why ?

As far as anyone can tell, they only want data on participants that entered the trial AFTER the temporary pause (that lasted 12 weeks in the US because of formatting issues with the data on the issue). However the initial data AZ supplied in the preliminary report appears to have included a small number of earlier participants. AZ then stripped them out to give it to them exactly how they wanted to see it.

No-one seems to think that there's anything wrong with the actual safety figures and the efficacy, although the real world datasets show it to be far more effective based on the longer dosing regime, so it all seems to be a bit bonkers. But the US system is built around only approving anything for use in the US after trials have been conducted directly under their remit on US citizens.

[Rinkals]

Why do you keep trolling me with Trump stuff? It’s easy to do a bit of research.

Who the hell is trolling?

I specifically explained my interest, namely that I was interested in the implications of the politicisation of pandemic measures. I went on to suggest that there are gaps in our understanding of the effects of the pandemic and I pointed at India as a nation that, by all logic, should have been struck a lot harder than they have been, given the density of their population and the poverty afflicting them.

I suggest that you are being a little over-sensitive.

Why mention Trump when you know he hasn’t had a rally in months? Why speak disparagingly about Georgia, when a quick search will show that Atlanta has a couple of universities in the top 50, a bunch of Fortune 500 companies with their headquarters in Atlanta, the world’s busiest airport etc., that Georgia voted for Biden and both senators are now Democrat?

I've explained.

Trump was a key factor in the politicisation of antivirus measures.

I've not spoken disparagingly of Georgia, just to say that I thought it was Trump heartland, which, bearing in mind that Majorie Taylor Greene was elected to represent them, didn't seem to be too far a stretch. That said, I'm prepared to accept JMK's assertion (and yours) that it's now a blue state.