NPR

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:33 am**

Blackmac wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:51 am I see Javid's claim of 200000 cases on Monday is being ridiculed. Likely to be more like 40000.
As I've said I understand the need for caution but object to the complete bullshit and dishonesty.

It might be in total though the tested positive is likely to be near 40,000. The fear being propagated now is disproportionate to the risk. This dishonesty is unfair on the population who by and large have been sensible despite sensationalist reporting and silly politicians and not really needed the threats as much as it has been used.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:45 am**

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

In recent months, the proportion of Delta cases needing hospital care has been around 2%.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:49 am**

Tichtheid wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:45 am Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

In recent months, the proportion of Delta cases needing hospital care has been around 2%.

Yeah, apologies my mistake.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:52 am**

Blackmac wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:49 am
Tichtheid wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:45 am Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

In recent months, the proportion of Delta cases needing hospital care has been around 2%.

Yeah, apologies my mistake.

There is a 4% figure, but it's in relation to testing

For about 95% of all cases in Scotland, tests are currently processed in a way that allows us to know if the S gene is present or not.

This shows that Omicron cases are increasing exponentially - faster than any variant that has gone before.

When I made a statement to Parliament last week, around 4% of cases showed the S Gene drop out. By Wednesday it was 7%, on Friday it was above 15%.

Today, it is 27.5%

We estimate that the doubling time is two to three days - more rapid than anything experienced in the pandemic so far.

There are so many figures to keep up with in this.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:00 am**

Tichtheid wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:52 am
Blackmac wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:49 am
Tichtheid wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 10:45 am Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on 14 December 2021.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... mber-2021/

it contains the following;

Yeah, apologies my mistake.

There is a 4% figure, but it's in relation to testing

For about 95% of all cases in Scotland, tests are currently processed in a way that allows us to know if the S gene is present or not.

This shows that Omicron cases are increasing exponentially - faster than any variant that has gone before.

When I made a statement to Parliament last week, around 4% of cases showed the S Gene drop out. By Wednesday it was 7%, on Friday it was above 15%.

Today, it is 27.5%

We estimate that the doubling time is two to three days - more rapid than anything experienced in the pandemic so far.

There are so many figures to keep up with in this.

I think that is the problem. I'm no scientist but also not exactly stupid and despite some best efforts on here I struggle to understand the difference in S gene dropout detection and the daily positive cases. If it takes say a couple of days to carry out the full sequencing examination, yesterdays figures were potentially 27.4% of 3117 then surely in a couple of days, on completion of full sequencing of todays tests we will see a jump to around 850ish??

That's why I asked are the full positive results lagging a day or two behind,

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:21 am**

Biffer wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:43 am
Blackmac wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:10 pm
Dogbert wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:35 pm

I'm no medical expert , but my understanding is this - The S gene drop out is a marker for the presence of the Omnicron variant , but not definite proof - The definite proof can only be confirmed by a genome scan

The S gene dropout test is a useful surrogate and a quick fix. Other variants and mutations can also cause a dropout. I suspect that they will only confirm a Positive for Omnicron with a full Genome sequence

So its a bit more complicated than "either positive Omicron cases or not"

If any of the above is incorrect - then maybe another poster who has more experience can confirm / clarify

The best information that all the governments / devolved administrations in the UK is that this variant is much more infectious and will shortly become dominant , with the potential for large numbers of Hospitalisations

Do you believe that all the administrations are 'scaremongering' ( or just the Scottish one )
I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.
Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?

Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:27 am**

Blackmac,

You aren't going to sequence the lot. You will randomly sample a smaller but statistically significant number of them.

You can can also infer a growth rate for omicron and extrapolate it but probably only for few days or week before it becomes too uncertain.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:53 am**

JM2K6 wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:29 pm
Calculon wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:19 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:31 pm

There's also a case, not for fearmongering, but emphasising worst cases that is scientific. Using the precautionary principle is important when you've only got one of something, like a global environment or a global population. If we'd applied it more in earlier waves in the UK, there might not be as many dead.
I don't really understand this term "precautionary principle". What exactly does it mean, just a fancy way of saying "better safe than sorry"? It seems a phrase that can be used to justify whatever precautions (restrictions) are deemed necessary, whatever the actual nature of the resistrictions, and without then having to lay out a clear cost/ bennefit rationale of said restrictions. Which admittedly can be very hard to do consideing the somewhat unpredictable nature of this pandemic.

The UK along with most countries made loads of mistakes in the beginning. Most people , including myself, completely underestimated the impact the virus would have. So I can't be too critical of decisions taken in the first few months. Even those taken by shitty politicians.
I don't understand that final paragraph. Are you holding governments to the same standard as a layman with no specialist knowledge or access to scientific data?

Yeah, I should not have said most people. My point was it was a pretty unprecedented situation, there were conflicting scientific advice, I mean the UK's chief medical officer who is an epidemiologist told the public in March 2020 not to wear masks and not to change their daily routine. While the political decisions had to be informed by the science, other factors also had to be considered, so I cut the politicians some slack in those first few months .

I'm not quite a layperson in epidemiology or virology, most scientific data is published, and my predictions were wrong.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:26 pm**

Uncle fester wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:21 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:43 am
Blackmac wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:10 pm

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and given the fact I have spent my whole life in public service I always presume that governments are trying to do right by the population. Whilst I don't think they are looking to do any harm I certainly think that they have seized on the opportunity of Omicron to impose their will without having to legislate too much. Sadly I also think both the current Scottish and Westminster governments are rotten to the core and completely untrustworthy.

I'll admit I do not understand the science behind the testing situation but if they are only able to confirm 10% of the potential Omicron cases on a daily basis we either have a significant public health failing or as I sadly believe, they are deliberately overstating the problem to frighten the populace into compliance. PHE are claiming over 200000 cases with only 4000 confirmed.

If the testing is lagging so far behind are we soon to see the massive increase in cases they are predicting.
Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?
Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.

I know. What I'm trying to understand from Blackmac is what he's on about. He acknowledges that we should decrease our socialising in order to prevent the virus spreading but goes off on a rant when the SNP try to get people to do it. It's not clear where the line is for him other than if the SNP are saying it it has to be shouted down.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:41 pm**

Blackmac wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:35 am
Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:11 am Did an annual Christmas pub crawl last night, albeit depleted from those who came back positive on LFTs. In at least three Central London pubs in the run up to Christmas we were the only customers, only one (a spoons) was anything like busy. We've locked down by stealth with no support for hospitality businesses. Heart goes out to them - would usually be standing room at the bar in most of them.
That is essentially my theory. If they had legislated to shut down hospitality they would have had to put a huge financial support structure in place. Panic the public into doing it for you and you are off the hook.

They tried to get away with this in march 2020. Around the 7th march boris gave a speech effectively saying "we're not shutting pubs, but don't go to pubs" the week running up to the 19th they were eerily quiet and it was only when the numbers went through the roof that they felt they had to order them shut

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:00 pm**

Biffer wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:26 pm
Uncle fester wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:21 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:43 am

Can you explain why they want discourage socialising during the festive season?
Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.
I know. What I'm trying to understand from Blackmac is what he's on about. He acknowledges that we should decrease our socialising in order to prevent the virus spreading but goes off on a rant when the SNP try to get people to do it. It's not clear where the line is for him other than if the SNP are saying it it has to be shouted down.

No, nothing to do with the SNP specifically. It's the way all the governments are going about it. The rhetoric they are using, tsunamis etc and the blatant exaggeration of the current situation is clearly designed to create a greater impression of the risk than they currently understand. As others have said, it is lockdown by the back door without the governments having to wear the financial consequences.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:33 pm**

Well..lets hope Omicron is mild in most people because in cases numbers looks like we are going to set some new records:

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:06 pm**

Blackmac wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:00 pm
Biffer wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:26 pm
Uncle fester wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:21 am

Mike Ryan from WHO has said we won't beat Covid with lockdown or vaccination alone. It needs to be a range of measures to slow it down and social distancing has to be one of those.
I know. What I'm trying to understand from Blackmac is what he's on about. He acknowledges that we should decrease our socialising in order to prevent the virus spreading but goes off on a rant when the SNP try to get people to do it. It's not clear where the line is for him other than if the SNP are saying it it has to be shouted down.
No, nothing to do with the SNP specifically. It's the way all the governments are going about it. The rhetoric they are using, tsunamis etc and the blatant exaggeration of the current situation is clearly designed to create a greater impression of the risk than they currently understand. As others have said, it is lockdown by the back door without the governments having to wear the financial consequences.

I know what you mean with the overstating of risk. The uncertainty overall is far lower than it was in March 2020 and the risk is lower as well. People need to accept they are going to get this multiple times in their life.

A bit of research today showed that omicron is 70x better at replicating in nose and throat cells than delta but 10x worse at replicating in lung cells.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:42 pm**

Please send the link!

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:53 pm**

Calculon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:42 pm Please send the link!

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:58 pm**

petej wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:53 pm
Calculon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:42 pm Please send the link!
https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release

Thanks, that would support the difference in symptoms we are seeing between the two strains.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm**

My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:20 pm**

Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday

Moderna?

Calculon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:58 pm
petej wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:53 pm
Calculon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:42 pm Please send the link!
https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release
Thanks, that would support the difference in symptoms we are seeing between the two strains.

And the speed of spread.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:01 pm**

I’m still going out for dinner tomorrow night. Wife’s boss is paying and I’m going to the bottom of the French section of Reds in the wine list

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:02 pm**

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:02 pm**

Yeah Moderna. Same as all the other ones

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:10 pm**

Rinkals wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:02 pm

that’s remarkable.

Stole SA’s discovery (of the HK originating variant), then locked SA out, then claimed as own.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:22 pm**

Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday

Moderna booster yesterday, sore arm but fine apart from that.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:44 pm**

Slick wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:07 pm
Sandstorm wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:04 pm Well that escalated fast!! Jabbed 3pm Saturday, just a sore arm on Sunday until 9pm when I started shivering and sweating uncontrollably. Went to bed and was ready to die all night. Drenched the sheets in sweat, awful headache. Almost cracked my teeth they were chattering so much!! Sent a sick note text to boss at breakfast time.

Finally passed out asleep and woke up at 2pm this afternoon. Felt much better at last and the arm barely aches any more.

Fuck Moderna boosters and fuck Covid19.
Yeehaa! Sounds like you are a bit of a fanny, but glad you’re feeling better

Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday

I’m not sure you’ll get much sympathy from Sandy on this one.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:00 pm**

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:44 pm
Slick wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:07 pm
Sandstorm wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:04 pm Well that escalated fast!! Jabbed 3pm Saturday, just a sore arm on Sunday until 9pm when I started shivering and sweating uncontrollably. Went to bed and was ready to die all night. Drenched the sheets in sweat, awful headache. Almost cracked my teeth they were chattering so much!! Sent a sick note text to boss at breakfast time.

Finally passed out asleep and woke up at 2pm this afternoon. Felt much better at last and the arm barely aches any more.

Fuck Moderna boosters and fuck Covid19.
Yeehaa! Sounds like you are a bit of a fanny, but glad you’re feeling better

Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday
I’m not sure you’ll get much sympathy from Sandy on this one.

Nah, I know how shite he feels. It ain’t fun.

Posted: **Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:27 pm**

Very magnanimous.

But

at me!

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:11 am**

Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:27 pm Very magnanimous.

But at me!

My arm is barely even sore now.

Lightweights who can't take a shot without a few days in bed, honestly.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:23 am**

Biffer wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:11 am
Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:27 pm Very magnanimous.

But at me!
My arm is barely even sore now.

Lightweights who can't take a shot without a few days in bed, honestly.

I'm sprightly today!

Doesn't it just mean I have an immense and extremely manly immune system?

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:27 am**

Slick wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:23 am
Biffer wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:11 am
Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:27 pm Very magnanimous.

But at me!
My arm is barely even sore now.

Lightweights who can't take a shot without a few days in bed, honestly.
I'm sprightly today!

Doesn't it just mean I have an immense and extremely manly immune system?

Think it means your default setting on infection is manflu

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:05 am**

petej wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:20 pm
Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday
Moderna?

Calculon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:58 pm
petej wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:53 pm

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release
Thanks, that would support the difference in symptoms we are seeing between the two strains.
And the speed of spread.

foshure, let's hope it completely replaces the delta variant

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:37 pm**

Do some research kids

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:42 pm**

email from the school that someone in my sons class has tested positive .... great. No school tomorrow I think.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:52 pm**

tc27 wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:33 pm Well..lets hope Omicron is mild in most people because in cases numbers looks like we are going to set some new records:

Are we assuming that the vaccine program was pointless then? I know that's sounding facetious, but who gives a flying f**k about infection rates if the vaccines are effective?

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:55 pm**

No

Infection rates matter if they end up being double what was observed during the last winter peak. There will be a follow on impact on hospital admissions etc.

Without vaccinations we would be in huge trouble

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:34 pm**

Calculon wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:05 am
petej wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:20 pm
Slick wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm My wife’s place has had every single booking for tonight and tomorrow night cancel

In other news, feel totally shite after the booster yesterday
Moderna?

Calculon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:58 pm
Thanks, that would support the difference in symptoms we are seeing between the two strains.
And the speed of spread.
foshure, let's hope it completely replaces the delta variant

That would be good. Hopefully, post this wave we can start to get rid of PCR testing outside of clinical settings, the shitty contact tracing, travel restrictions, quarantine of contacts. Going to be difficult for some of the UK public to shift attitudes on COVID even as the level of risk declines as it has become part of people's tribal identities.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:11 pm**

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:52 pmAre we assuming that the vaccine program was pointless then? I know that's sounding facetious, but who gives a flying f**k about infection rates if the vaccines are effective?

Covid didn't start with Omicron, and the vaccines are still providing us with a real defence against Omicron. It'd be carnage without them. Vaccines are effective but don't stop transmission of Omicron and aren't 100% effective.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:27 pm**

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:52 pm
tc27 wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:33 pm Well..lets hope Omicron is mild in most people because in cases numbers looks like we are going to set some new records:

Are we assuming that the vaccine program was pointless then? I know that's sounding facetious, but who gives a flying f**k about infection rates if the vaccines are effective?

No...without vaccines this would be an absolute catastrophe.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 5:32 pm**

petej wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:53 pm
Calculon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:42 pm Please send the link!
https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20 ... ss_release

If that is the case, it could be very good news. One of the reasons Covid has been so serious is that it infects both upper and lower respiratory tracts. Other similar viruses like MERS were lower respiratory only.

As as general rule of thumb, lower respiratory only is more dangerous but much slower to spread. Upper respiratory only is very quick to spread but not as serious. Covid had the perfect storm combination of both.

Now if Omicron eases us away from lower respiratory infections, that will eliminate most of the risk. We've effectively used natural selection to force it to become less dangerous.
Still need to be a bit careful that we don't throw caution to the wind and let it mutate back into something more dangerous.

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:03 pm**

88,000 new UK cases today. Holy shit this thing has legs. Thank God it appears to be a more mild variety

Posted: **Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:04 pm**

Think I read somewhere it has a 23% less likelihood of people ending up in hospital than delta. Which actually isn’t that much.

But then the likelihood of ending up in ICU is drastically reduced. From the numbers I saw it was 5.7 times less likely for an omicron case to end up in ICU than for a delta case.

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