So, coronavirus...

[dpedin]

Hearing hospitals in Scotland remain on top alert, still very, very busy with covid and trying to catch up on urgent cases and staffing remains a major concern. SG are trying to get more staff freed up in order to quickly ramp up vaccinations but hospitals are struggling and absences and vacancies are very high. Also hearing that staff are just plain knackered and less likely to be able to do extra shifts etc plus the extra staff that were around last winter - students, retired staff, etc - are not available this time around. They are not looking forward to winter at all and have fingers crossed that we don't see any increase in covid hospitalisations, a bad flu season or a cold and snowy winter spell, all of which they might struggle to cope with.

On the plus side the vaccination programme is having a big positive impact on hospitalisation rate and emerging data suggests Omicron isn't leading to any increase in hospitalisations over Delta. Admissions to hospital and ICU are on a downward trend. However worries are its still a number game in that if Omicron is so much more transmissible then even with a lower rate of hospitalisation the numbers may still become a major problem. There are still 420k folk in Scotland eligible but not vaccinated for whatever reason plus 698k kids not vaccinated.

Fingers crossed!

[petej]

Hearing hospitals in Scotland remain on top alert, still very, very busy with covid and trying to catch up on urgent cases and staffing remains a major concern. SG are trying to get more staff freed up in order to quickly ramp up vaccinations but hospitals are struggling and absences and vacancies are very high. Also hearing that staff are just plain knackered and less likely to be able to do extra shifts etc plus the extra staff that were around last winter - students, retired staff, etc - are not available this time around. They are not looking forward to winter at all and have fingers crossed that we don't see any increase in covid hospitalisations, a bad flu season or a cold and snowy winter spell, all of which they might struggle to cope with.

On the plus side the vaccination programme is having a big positive impact on hospitalisation rate and emerging data suggests Omicron isn't leading to any increase in hospitalisations over Delta. Admissions to hospital and ICU are on a downward trend. However worries are its still a number game in that if Omicron is so much more transmissible then even with a lower rate of hospitalisation the numbers may still become a major problem. There are still 420k folk in Scotland eligible but not vaccinated for whatever reason plus 698k kids not vaccinated.

Fingers crossed!

Due to the degree of built up immunity (vaccines and infections) I think proportionally to cases the number of fatalities and hospitalisations will be far lower with Omicron but the speed of the wave greater which is bad for health services.

-ve Government release states: “New analysis conducted by the UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) indicates that the window between infection and infectiousness may be shorter for the Omicron variant”

+ve proportion of B & T cell epitomes affected is about three times more than Beta or Delta.
https://virological.org/t/report-on-omi ... rature/770

[Calculon]

PCR testers in SA are incompetent or corrupt.


Rinky in 5……4…..3…….

Passengers didn't require a negative PCR test to board the flight.

Which is why you’re on a red list again.

SA was put on the UK red list because of KLM boarding requirements. I guess that is one way of looking at it.

[Sandstorm]

Well that escalated fast!! Jabbed 3pm Saturday, just a sore arm on Sunday until 9pm when I started shivering and sweating uncontrollably. Went to bed and was ready to die all night. Drenched the sheets in sweat, awful headache. Almost cracked my teeth they were chattering so much!! Sent a sick note text to boss at breakfast time.

Finally passed out asleep and woke up at 2pm this afternoon. Felt much better at last and the arm barely aches any more.

Fuck Moderna boosters and fuck Covid19.

[salanya]

Well that escalated fast!! Jabbed 3pm Saturday, just a sore arm on Sunday until 9pm when I started shivering and sweating uncontrollably. Went to bed and was ready to die all night. Drenched the sheets in sweat, awful headache. Almost cracked my teeth they were chattering so much!! Sent a sick note text to boss at breakfast time.

Finally passed out asleep and woke up at 2pm this afternoon. Felt much better at last and the arm barely aches any more.

Fuck Moderna boosters and fuck Covid19.

Only the bravest can take the Moderna

Though are you sure it was Covid - sounds like man-flu........

(glad you're feeling better)

[Sandstorm]

Gracias Sal

[Ymx]

Right.

Fuck.

Just a mild reaction then.

Can’t wait for mine I booked a few days before Christmas then.

[Slick]

Well that escalated fast!! Jabbed 3pm Saturday, just a sore arm on Sunday until 9pm when I started shivering and sweating uncontrollably. Went to bed and was ready to die all night. Drenched the sheets in sweat, awful headache. Almost cracked my teeth they were chattering so much!! Sent a sick note text to boss at breakfast time.

Finally passed out asleep and woke up at 2pm this afternoon. Felt much better at last and the arm barely aches any more.

Fuck Moderna boosters and fuck Covid19.

Yeehaa! Sounds like you are a bit of a fanny, but glad you’re feeling better

[Sandstorm]

Well that escalated fast!! Jabbed 3pm Saturday, just a sore arm on Sunday until 9pm when I started shivering and sweating uncontrollably. Went to bed and was ready to die all night. Drenched the sheets in sweat, awful headache. Almost cracked my teeth they were chattering so much!! Sent a sick note text to boss at breakfast time.

Finally passed out asleep and woke up at 2pm this afternoon. Felt much better at last and the arm barely aches any more.

Fuck Moderna boosters and fuck Covid19.

Yeehaa! Sounds like you are a bit of a fanny, but glad you’re feeling better

You should have seen me hardly complain the last time I had man-flu.

[convoluted]

NZ Purchases 60,000 courses of Pfizer treatments.

The government has purchased 60,000 courses of Pfizer's oral antiviral medication to treat early infections of Covid-19, subject to Medsafe approval, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has confirmed ... "It's a big step forward for the management of Covid-19 globally."

... She said alongside vaccinations, hospital treatments were already reducing the likelihood of people needing ICU care, with ICU rates in Auckland dropping from the 5.7 percent of hospitalisations seen early in the pandemic to 3 percent.

... "Pfizer's new antiviral has a three-to-five-day window from the beginning of Covid symptoms to be effective - most effective from three days but still with efficacy up to five." ... ... ...

First, why am I so suspicious that Pfizer has essentially taken what works against the pox from Ivermectin (a.k.a. 'horse dewormer' to a certain sub-set) and hydroxychloroquine, then wrapped it all up in a patent to sell each course at what is probably a many hundred -fold cost over what Ivermectin sells for ... ??

Second: efficacy of the Pfizer treatment is dependent on how early the treatment starts. That is exactly how the use of hydroxychloroquine was 'debunked' when Trump touted it as a treatment. It was deliberately given as a trial treatment to veterans who were literally in their dying days from Covid. They all perished of course as it was way too late, but hey, there it was folks, another bit of 'Trump quackery', 'scientifically debunked in a clinical trial'.

Third, Adern says hospital treatments are already reducing the likelihood of people needing ICU care. Intriguingly, we aren't told what these treatments are. If I were very ill with Covid and been told to look after myself at home, I'd love an insight into what those treatments were.

[petej]

Right.

Fuck.

Just a mild reaction then.

Can’t wait for mine I booked a few days before Christmas then.

I'm disappointed about my lack of reaction to the booster (pfizer) and I had it a 3weeks after +ve COVID test (not sure if there should be a bigger gap). Also had bugger all reaction to my 2 original jabs (AZ) bar a bit of a sore arm. Perhaps my immune system is lazy.

One thing that totally bemuses me is that we haven't updated our official COVID symptoms, it still lists fever, loss of smell, continuous cough when in most people including myself it was a pretty standard cold. Going by the official symptoms I had no reason to test myself.

[fishfoodie]

Right.

Fuck.

Just a mild reaction then.

Can’t wait for mine I booked a few days before Christmas then.

I'm disappointed about my lack of reaction to the booster (pfizer) and I had it a 3weeks after +ve COVID test (not sure if there should be a bigger gap). Also had bugger all reaction to my 2 original jabs (AZ) bar a bit of a sore arm. Perhaps my immune system is lazy.

One thing that totally bemuses me is that we haven't updated our official COVID symptoms, it still lists fever, loss of smell, continuous cough when in most people including myself it was a pretty standard cold. Going by the official symptoms I had no reason to test myself.

The advice in Ireland would have told you not to get a booster until 5 months after having had Covid.

Catching Covid after being vaccinated; has the same effect as getting the booster; it stimulated your immune system into a response; & encourages the muscle memory that the vaccine is developing. So in effect; you got the booster by catching covid.

I think this also explains why you had no reaction to the actual booster; as your immune system had already been stimulated by the real virus.

[TB63]

NZ Purchases 60,000 courses of Pfizer treatments.

The government has purchased 60,000 courses of Pfizer's oral antiviral medication to treat early infections of Covid-19, subject to Medsafe approval, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has confirmed ... "It's a big step forward for the management of Covid-19 globally."

... She said alongside vaccinations, hospital treatments were already reducing the likelihood of people needing ICU care, with ICU rates in Auckland dropping from the 5.7 percent of hospitalisations seen early in the pandemic to 3 percent.

... "Pfizer's new antiviral has a three-to-five-day window from the beginning of Covid symptoms to be effective - most effective from three days but still with efficacy up to five." ... ... ...

First, why am I so suspicious that Pfizer has essentially taken what works against the pox from Ivermectin (a.k.a. 'horse dewormer' to a certain sub-set) and hydroxychloroquine, then wrapped it all up in a patent to sell each course at what is probably a many hundred -fold cost over what Ivermectin sells for ... ?? Because you're a brainwashed conspiracy nutcase. No links to Invermectin or hydroxychloroquine in their Paxlovid..

Second: efficacy of the Pfizer treatment is dependent on how early the treatment starts. That is exactly how the use of hydroxychloroquine was 'debunked' when Trump touted it as a treatment. It was deliberately given as a trial treatment to veterans who were literally in their dying days from Covid. They all perished of course as it was way too late, but hey, there it was folks, another bit of 'Trump quackery', 'scientifically debunked in a clinical trial'. Every fucking time the orange fucknuckle opens his mouth, he gets debunked...

Third, Adern says hospital treatments are already reducing the likelihood of people needing ICU care. Intriguingly, we aren't told what these treatments are. If I were very ill with Covid and been told to look after myself at home, I'd love an insight into what those treatments were.

[Oxbow]

Just back from having my booster. Everyone I know who has gone to my surgery has had Pfizer, but they were dishing out Moderna today. Hopefully it won't fuck me up like it did Sandstorm.

[Uncle fester]

Starting to look like Omicron could be milder strain but more transmittable.

CNBC: Pfizer CEO says omicron appears milder but spreads faster and could lead to more Covid mutations.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/pfizer- ... tions.html

[Biffer]

Starting to look like Omicron could be milder strain but more transmittable.

CNBC: Pfizer CEO says omicron appears milder but spreads faster and could lead to more Covid mutations.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/pfizer- ... tions.html

Which might actually make it worse at societal scale. A smaller percentage of a bigger number could put just as much, if not more pressure on the NHS.

[Marylandolorian]

Starting to look like Omicron could be milder strain but more transmittable.

CNBC: Pfizer CEO says omicron appears milder but spreads faster and could lead to more Covid mutations.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/pfizer- ... tions.html

Which might actually make it worse at societal scale. A smaller percentage of a bigger number could put just as much, if not more pressure on the NHS.

Milder strain still can kill millions, like the Alpha/Beta did, we should be more interested whether the current vaccines provide enough protection against this variant

[Sandstorm]

Just back from having my booster. Everyone I know who has gone to my surgery has had Pfizer, but they were dishing out Moderna today. Hopefully it won't fuck me up like it did Sandstorm.

*sympathy fist bump*

[dpedin]

Immensa scandal isn't going away anytime soon. How and why they got the contracts and what due diligence was put in place will be interesting?

[petej]

Some of the antibody testing results have come in. Looks like protection against infection will be much reduced for the vaxxed. Those vaxxed and been infected it holds up much better against infection (pretty good for the UK considering our crapness about people getting infected and our on-going delta wave).

[Kiwias]

A timely description of life in the emergency ward of a US hospital in a state with low vaccination rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/08/opin ... 4c004ee1ce

Like in the rest of Michigan, an overwhelming majority of patients in our hospital are unvaccinated, including 98 percent of acute critical care patients. Given that only about 62 percent of Michigan residents have had at least one dose of vaccine, lagging behind the national rate by about nine points, I fear we won’t see an end to the tide of sick people anytime soon, and hospitals can absorb only so many surges.

With every shift, I see the strain people sick with Covid-19 put on my hospital. Their choice to not get vaccinated is not personal. It forces patients with ruptured appendixes and broken bones to wait for hours in my emergency department; it postpones surgeries for countless other people and burns out doctors and nurses.

[Rinkals]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... -debunked/

Ironically, South Africa has one of the best developed networks for molecular or PCR testing in the world — in all likelihood better than that of Canada — because the same technique is used for HIV viral load testing for which the country, over the past two decades, has developed an exceptionally well-established infrastructure because of its high HIV burden. At the beginning of the Covid pandemic, South Africa was therefore able to start with Covid testing much quicker than many other countries.

Across the Atlantic, France revealed its own set of rules: Only French and EU residents, diplomats and flight crews are allowed to disembark on French soil if a plane passed through a southern African country; regardless of whether those people were exposed to potentially infected people in those countries or not; if they have the correct passport, they can disembark.

Absurdly, sequencing data from South Africa, published in the journal Nature, shows that Europe was responsible for more than 80% of the early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 infections in South Africa. And although most flights, regardless of which country, were put on hold around the world, including in South Africa, Europe didn’t face any selective restrictions from our government.

[Biffer]

South Africa does indeed have a very good infrastructure for genetic sequencing and testing but the problem is scale. When you look at the number of tests carried out per head of population it's still way too low to monitor the pandemic properly. That's not a criticism, it's very difficult for a country that isn't high income to do it, and let's face it even most of those haven't done it in an exemplary way. For comparison SA has done around 370k tests for every million people, the UK has done about 5.5million for every million people. Botswana has done double the rate of tests that South Africa has done, it's one of the leaders in Africa.

My point here is that this is a key area for long term investment from overseas aid. It makes massive sense domestically and internationally. High value jobs, the associated education, exportable services etc can all come from this area, helping Southern Africa to become a leader in viral, genomic analysis. The benefit to the world community is increased monitoring and advance highlighting of future pandemic threats.

[Calculon]

What type of tests? Its not a competition to see who can test or sequence the most. SA will never be able to get the percentage cases sequenced to anywhere the likes of the UK or the USA, especially when case numbers are high. Nor should it even attempt to do this. It’s about targeting the right samples, and then having the knowledge and infrastructure to analyse and publicise the results quickly. As far as the discovery of Omicron in SA it appears to that a few GP’s noticed unusual symptoms in their patients, sent their samples for PCR ID, The lab they sent it to (Lancet laboratories) had the basic knowledge to realise that the results looked a bit strange (no S band on the gel), had the foresight then to get the samples sequenced and once this was done the results where quickly analysed and released to the world. Lancet laboratories is just an ordinary private and commercial laboratory that anyone can use to get their PCR COVID test done for around 34 quid. Obviously nothing like Immensa labs and maybe the pressure of testing high numbers led to the Immensa lab scandal. The whole process from collecting samples to having the new variant publicised happened within something like a week, in the USA it would have taken a month.

[Biffer]

What type of tests? Its not a competition to see who can test or sequence the most. SA will never be able to get the percentage cases sequenced to anywhere the likes of the UK or the USA, especially when case numbers are high. Nor should it even attempt to do this. It’s about targeting the right samples, and then having the knowledge and infrastructure to analyse and publicise the results quickly. As far as the discovery of Omicron in SA it appears to that a few GP’s noticed unusual symptoms in their patients, sent their samples for PCR ID, The lab they sent it to (Lancet laboratories) had the basic knowledge to realise that the results looked a bit strange (no S band on the gel), had the foresight then to get the samples sequenced and once this was done the results where quickly analysed and released to the world. Lancet laboratories is just an ordinary private and commercial laboratory that anyone can use to get their PCR COVID test done for around 34 quid. Obviously nothing like Immensa labs and maybe the pressure of testing high numbers led to the Immensa lab scandal. The whole process from collecting samples to having the new variant publicised happened within something like a week, in the USA it would have taken a month.

Of course it's not a competition and South Africa has, as I said, a very good infrastructure, but it's limited in scale. And the better your test and trace capability is, the more you can follow the way outbreaks develop, which gives you more options around public health management. The UK having a shower of arseholes giving their mates contracts doesn't mean that is untrue.

All I'm saying here is that there's an opportunity to invest in building that capability further in South Africa which will result in a win-win both domestically and in the wider international community.

[Sandstorm]

So what have you guys got planned for the evening of the 18th?

[tabascoboy]

Two doses of a Covid vaccine are not enough to stop you catching the Omicron variant, UK scientists have warned.

Early analysis of UK Omicron and Delta cases showed the vaccines were less effective at stopping the new variant.

However, a third booster dose significantly increased protection to around 75%.

The UK Health Security Agency said vaccines were still likely to offer good protection against severe Covid that needed hospital treatment.

The concern since the heavily mutated Omicron variant first emerged was that it would make vaccines less effective.

Scientists analysed data from 581 Omicron cases and thousands of Delta cases to calculate how effective the vaccines were against the new variant.

It showed a dramatic drop in effectiveness for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine and a significant drop off for two doses of Pfizer.

However, the third dose increased the protection against getting Covid symptoms to between 70 and 75%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59615005

Hopefully a combination of the two mitigates the drop from AZ alone...

[petej]

Combinations with AZ and mRNA vaccines seem to work well on the antibody levels.

I think we can end the travel bans.

[Lemoentjie]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

[Calculon]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

You still refusing to get vaccinated?

[GogLais]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

So you're telling us that it hasn't resulted in any deaths and quoting something that says it's still early in the course of the disease?

[Calculon]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

[Sandstorm]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Yeah, we agree. Good news for patients everywhere.

[GogLais]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Isn't the issue that Omicron may not cause more severe infections but it does look that it may spread much more effectively? It's a a bit early for deaths anyway. You may well be right that the horse has bolted re travel.

[Uncle fester]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Brits are expecting between 25k and 75k deaths under current restrictions.

BBC News - Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029

[Biffer]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Isn't the issue that Omicron may not cause more severe infections but it does look that it may spread much more effectively? It's a a bit early for deaths anyway. You may well be right that the horse has bolted re travel.

Yep. The 'less severe' thing might be an artifact of increased immune escape.

[Calculon]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Isn't the issue that Omicron may not cause more severe infections but it does look that it may spread much more effectively? It's a a bit early for deaths anyway. You may well be right that the horse has bolted re travel.

Milder infections but yes, and it seems that your current restrictions are doing little to slow the spread. So unless you're prepared to do another lockdown..... Assessments of severity including deaths in south Africa is taking the lag factor into account. So definitely not to early to notice an increase in covid deaths which isn't happening, but will get a better picture within next few weeks.

[Calculon]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Brits are expecting between 25k and 75k deaths under current restrictions.

BBC News - Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029

The NHS seems to be always on the point of being overwhelmed. Covid is becoming endemic, seasonal and generally less severe, this variant is part of that. You might have a few more tough winters ahead.

[Lemoentjie]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organization told us no omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death, but "it is still early in the clinical course of disease and this may change."

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

All this panic over a variant that hasn't resulted in any deaths

So you're telling us that it hasn't resulted in any deaths and quoting something that says it's still early in the course of the disease?

It's been around since October. Tens of thousands of cases.

[petej]

No confirmed deaths from Omicron and mounting evidence it causes less severe infections than Delta. Community transmission of Omicron in the UK makes the travel ban even more nonsensical.

Brits are expecting between 25k and 75k deaths under current restrictions.

BBC News - Covid: Omicron study suggests major wave in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59621029

The NHS seems to be always on the point of being overwhelmed. Covid is becoming endemic, seasonal and generally less severe, this variant is part of that. You might have a few more tough winters ahead.

By design. It is ran lean to minimise cost but that gives you no excess capacity and low resilience.