NPR

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

Big D wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:42 pm Is the deal with this that if, as is happening, this strain knocks Delta out, and is proven to be much milder, we are near the end?

A lot of ifs and buts obviously

Until the next variant.

So how does it end? Not being facetious

Depends what you mean by end (also not being facetious). Covid19 is going to exist as a human disease permanently. How we adapt to that is a broad societal decision. Some people are already screaming to just let er rip and suck it up. Others want to maintain restrictions at higher levels until 8 billion people are properly vaccinated.

What happens is still dependent on a number of factors, including, but not limited to, global vaccine rollout, mutation of the virus, public perception.

I guess the end is probably when it’s at the point where there are no longer restrictions and when isolation is no longer legally required.

Ymx wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:20 pm I guess the end is probably when it’s at the point where there are no longer restrictions and when isolation is no longer legally required.

Unfortunately Boris will introduce your plan to open up with no scientific backing or support at all. Not because Covid is just man-flu.

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:42 pm

Ymx wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:20 pm I guess the end is probably when it’s at the point where there are no longer restrictions and when isolation is no longer legally required.

Unfortunately Boris will introduce your plan to open up with no scientific backing or support at all. Not because Covid is just man-flu.

Indeed. I expect there might be three more Boris flip flops, and 3 more boosters until it’s stable.

When will this end? There will be even better and more effective vaccines and medications developed and deployed that will control this and future variations of covid, probably coming on stream in the next 12 months. Some of these will be delivered in pill form and also be able to be stored at room temperature so deployment will be easier. They will also be considerably cheaper and easier to produce. There will also be better drugs coming on line that will deal far better with covid if you get it and respond badly. Remember we developed, manufactured and deployed a number of vaccines for covid in about 12 months, they are safe and fit for purpose but give the scientists a bit more time and they will deliver better and cheaper options. New vaccine development is already well underway and will deliver. We will also see kids being vaccinated shortly and the covid jab will be rolled into the normal school age vaccination programmes. covid will be dealt with in the same way we deal with measles - vaccination and a rapid PH response if we have outbreaks.

At the moment we are trying to stop the NHS be overwhelmed and a large reason for this is the unvaccinated adults. The vast majority of those in ICU are now unvaccinated, a disproportionate % of those hospitalised are unvaccinated. If the 9% of those eligible but unvaccinated, about 6 million folk in UK, were vaccinated we wouldn't be in the mess we are in now. It is the nut job anti vaxxers and anti lock down idiots that are actually perpetuating a lot of this mess.

Bloody Londoners !

Tax rebate if you are vaccinated. That should get most of the 6 million hold-puts down the jab shop.

Booster jab today, Moderna, but with a pamphlet saying I'll need a second jab in 28 days?
Anyone else had that?..

TB63 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:00 pm Booster jab today, Moderna, but with a pamphlet saying I'll need a second jab in 28 days?
Anyone else had that?..

Bin it. No-one has 2 jabs in 28 days.

Shithouse lateral flow test batch I’ve got here. Not enough fucking testing fluid in the bloody vial to actually register on the swab!!

dpedin wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:05 pm Hospitalisations jump up 232 and deaths are up to 172, probably a bit of catching up with the numbers but not pretty?

It’s a Tuesday. Tuesdays nearly always have the highest reported figure each week.

To put the number into context, reported deaths are up 0.9% week-on-week and the last time 172 deaths were actually registered in a single day was 1st November. No day in the last month has got above 150 and the average is currently 115. Hospitalisations are up 2.2% but it’s been reported the majority of patients in hospital in London with Omicron were admitted for other reasons, so it may be fair to assume the same elsewhere.

Too early to be sure, but it’s beginning to look like cases may have peaked last Wednesday (the numbers announced each day are reports, not the day tests were taken).

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:10 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:04 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

So how does it end? Not being facetious

We get stronger than Covid through immunity and familiarity and it becomes - for real - “just another flu”

I’m hopeful that’s Summer 2022

Kind of feel like omicron is the beginning of the end for the pandemic and the first endemic variant.

In a sense this has already ended in many countries. The reason that a country like Nigeria has fully vaxxed less than 2% of it's population is to a large part due to lack of demand. The risk of getting COVID-19 just isn't an issue for most people. They have other concerns that are more important, one of them being malaria. Many African countries are in similar position. For Europe this might happen as soon as this summer. Ironically China where it began might also be the last country where it ends, thanks to their zero covid strategy.

I’m sure China will somehow come out of this miraculously “unscathed”. They just need to figure out the correct dialogue. Probably claim there’s is a super vaccine, 100% coverage.

Or change their test equipment to not show omicron.

They have been very effective at suppressing the virus, but a zero covid strategy isn't sustainable long term. When the rest of the world opens up the cost will be too great, both to the image of China and the economy. The CCP has repeatedly contrasted their way of dealing with the virus with what the West has done, obviously to emphasize the superiority of the Chinese system to their people. So how they then sell the end of zero covid to the same public will be interesting. I suspect they will manage it OK since they are experts at managing/manipulating the Chinese public.

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:40 am

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

The positivity rate for the last 7 days is 5.8% and enough tests have been done to cover 1 in 6 people. At the current rate, the UK will do more tests in 9 weeks than Germany has done in the entire pandemic. Germany’s most recently-published 7-day positivity rate is 19.8%.

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:40 am

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

I would be surprised if it didn't go up in the middle of surge regardless of capacity. Test positivity and cases are more qualitative measures than an accurate reflection community spread hence the ONS and react studies. You would need a far higher of positivity than that to be indicating test capacity to be a concern, for example we were up at 20-25% in Wales during most of October and there was no concern about test capacity. If it is above 30% I might agree but at 13% and even in London under 20%, nah.

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:10 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:04 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

So how does it end? Not being facetious

We get stronger than Covid through immunity and familiarity and it becomes - for real - “just another flu”

I’m hopeful that’s Summer 2022

Kind of feel like omicron is the beginning of the end for the pandemic and the first endemic variant.

Fingers crossed.
Some folks seem to assume that mutation is always in the direction of a virus getting weaker but that's not always the case. Spanish flu, for example, got worse from first to second wave probably because there was no evolutionary pressure pushing it that way. Waves 3 & 4 were also more deadly than the first wave. It would be great if there was a bit more awareness of this.

More than likely, we'll have to keep sensible but lower level measures in place. Can see mask wearing, vaccine certs (possibly more boosters), WFH and social distancing being with us for all of 2022. Mike Ryan from WHO said there's no single silver bullet so it'll be a raft of measures.
If Omicron turns out to be milder with the increased infection rate not offsetting that milder infection, then we just need to keep safe from it mutating back to something more dangerous.
Adopting a "let it run through" policy at this stage could undo all the good work to date.

Striking that balance with people weary of the stress & restrictions is going to be very tough.

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:40 am

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

Well, I had no problem booking a test this morning. Went online at 1050, booked a test for 1130.

Don't leave us hanging

TB63 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:00 pm Booster jab today, Moderna, but with a pamphlet saying I'll need a second jab in 28 days?
Anyone else had that?..

How are you feeling? I had a Moderna booster yesterday and I'm totally wiped out. Feeling absolutely brutal.

I like neeps wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:10 pm

TB63 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:00 pm Booster jab today, Moderna, but with a pamphlet saying I'll need a second jab in 28 days?
Anyone else had that?..

How are you feeling? I had a Moderna booster yesterday and I'm totally wiped out. Feeling absolutely brutal.

That's how I was after Moderna, wife much the same but with less moaning. All gone within about 18 hours though.

I had a Moderna booster on Sunday. Fresh as a daisy on Monday.

Given the way everyone else is going on about it, I'm wondering if she even got any in me.

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:36 pm I had a Moderna booster on Sunday. Fresh as a daisy on Monday.

Given the way everyone else is going on about it, I'm wondering if she even got any in me.

I was the same - expecting to be hit by a bus by it, bit of a sore arm for a day and nothing else.

Biffer wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:48 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:36 pm I had a Moderna booster on Sunday. Fresh as a daisy on Monday.

Given the way everyone else is going on about it, I'm wondering if she even got any in me.

I was the same - expecting to be hit by a bus by it, bit of a sore arm for a day and nothing else.

Yeah, had a sore arm too, which is at least reassuring.

A study done on the SA data:



Worth a look - not great news, not terrible news, more data will help clarify the picture further.



Also some murmerings about a strain in Germany that's very concerning but a) I don't know the science well enough to understand the paper on it, b) it's irresponsible to boost with links to discussion when it's such early days, and c) fuck it we've had bad news all year and it's Christmas Eve Eve, let me not think about this for a while

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:51 pm

Biffer wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:48 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:36 pm I had a Moderna booster on Sunday. Fresh as a daisy on Monday.

Given the way everyone else is going on about it, I'm wondering if she even got any in me.

I was the same - expecting to be hit by a bus by it, bit of a sore arm for a day and nothing else.

Yeah, had a sore arm too, which is at least reassuring.

Pfizer booster for me, on Monday. Totally floored me for 24 hours. Fever (but no sweating, weirdly), and uncontrollable shivering all night. Pounding head. Worse than the original vaccine (A-Z).

To TB'ss original question, the pamphlet I got also said something about a second shot, 3 weeks later. I raised it with the NHS folk there who said it was just the original pamphlet that was given out with the first vaccinations, so was out of date. I didn't want to make a thing of it (as I'm sure many many people had already pointed it out to them), but I did think they ought to update the info.

I like neeps wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:10 pm

TB63 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:00 pm Booster jab today, Moderna, but with a pamphlet saying I'll need a second jab in 28 days?
Anyone else had that?..

How are you feeling? I had a Moderna booster yesterday and I'm totally wiped out. Feeling absolutely brutal.

Absolutely fine, bit of a sore arm if I knock it, but been laying flooring yesterday after the jab, and all day today no probs...
Side effect has fucked my knees though.....

New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

The number of new Covid cases recorded on the government’s dashboard has passed 100,000 for the first time in this pandemic, today’s figures show. The new daily total is 106,122.

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:26 pm New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

The number of new Covid cases recorded on the government’s dashboard has passed 100,000 for the first time in this pandemic, today’s figures show. The new daily total is 106,122.

It’ll be another few days before we know whether these increases in positive cases are going to cause an increase in hospitalisations.

sefton wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:14 pm

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:26 pm New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

The number of new Covid cases recorded on the government’s dashboard has passed 100,000 for the first time in this pandemic, today’s figures show. The new daily total is 106,122.

It’ll be another few days before we know whether these increases in positive cases are going to cause an increase in hospitalisations.

Worrying, well to me anyway

According to today’s dashboard, the most recent daily figure (for Monday) is now 301. The previous Monday the figure was 169. The daily Covid hospital admission figure for London has not been this high since early February.

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:23 pm

sefton wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:14 pm

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:26 pm New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

It’ll be another few days before we know whether these increases in positive cases are going to cause an increase in hospitalisations.

Worrying, well to me anyway

According to today’s dashboard, the most recent daily figure (for Monday) is now 301. The previous Monday the figure was 169. The daily Covid hospital admission figure for London has not been this high since early February.

There’s an asterisk with the London figures due to the low take up of vaccination.

Wrinkles wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:37 pm

dpedin wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:05 pm Hospitalisations jump up 232 and deaths are up to 172, probably a bit of catching up with the numbers but not pretty?

It’s a Tuesday. Tuesdays nearly always have the highest reported figure each week.

To put the number into context, reported deaths are up 0.9% week-on-week and the last time 172 deaths were actually registered in a single day was 1st November. No day in the last month has got above 150 and the average is currently 115. Hospitalisations are up 2.2% but it’s been reported the majority of patients in hospital in London with Omicron were admitted for other reasons, so it may be fair to assume the same elsewhere.

Too early to be sure, but it’s beginning to look like cases may have peaked last Wednesday (the numbers announced each day are reports, not the day tests were taken).

I think you might have been a bit too optimistic

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:23 pm

sefton wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:14 pm

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:26 pm New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

It’ll be another few days before we know whether these increases in positive cases are going to cause an increase in hospitalisations.

Worrying, well to me anyway

According to today’s dashboard, the most recent daily figure (for Monday) is now 301. The previous Monday the figure was 169. The daily Covid hospital admission figure for London has not been this high since early February.

That’s a little selective, as it was 900 in January

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:26 pm New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

The number of new Covid cases recorded on the government’s dashboard has passed 100,000 for the first time in this pandemic, today’s figures show. The new daily total is 106,122.

The context is the case situation is worse in most of Europe (hard to be sure as they do far less testing) as are the booster vaccination numbers.

My understanding is the devolved admins have announced firm plans to bring in more restrictions whereas in England its still dependent on how the data develops - I am going to stick my neck out here and say this is probably the right approach.

tc27 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:10 pm

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:26 pm New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

The number of new Covid cases recorded on the government’s dashboard has passed 100,000 for the first time in this pandemic, today’s figures show. The new daily total is 106,122.

The context is the case situation is worse in most of Europe (hard to be sure as they do far less testing) as are the booster vaccination numbers.

My understanding is the devolved admins have announced firm plans to bring in more restrictions whereas in England its still dependent on how the data develops - I am going to stick my neck out here and say this is probably the right approach.

I do hope so
I just don’t trust this government an inch

tc27 wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:10 pm

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:26 pm New daily record of cases. Yet whilst the rest of Europe and the devolved UK countries bring in additionsal measures to battle Omicron, we in England are waiting for Steve Baker and his loony mates to tell the blonde slug just exactly what they will let him do!!!

The number of new Covid cases recorded on the government’s dashboard has passed 100,000 for the first time in this pandemic, today’s figures show. The new daily total is 106,122.

The context is the case situation is worse in most of Europe (hard to be sure as they do far less testing) as are the booster vaccination numbers.

My understanding is the devolved admins have announced firm plans to bring in more restrictions whereas in England its still dependent on how the data develops - I am going to stick my neck out here and say this is probably the right approach.

The devolved admins can easily cancel those plans but at least people are ready for them. There is an advantage for certain areas (eg education) to giving them an early heads up. The very late school announcements in england last January certainly pissed off alot of people I know.

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:20 pm

I do hope so
I just don’t trust this government an inch

I don’t trust them to do the right thing either.

But I think it’s down to blinding incompetence rather than actual devious planning.

Ovals wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:34 pm

Wrinkles wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:37 pm

dpedin wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:05 pm Hospitalisations jump up 232 and deaths are up to 172, probably a bit of catching up with the numbers but not pretty?

It’s a Tuesday. Tuesdays nearly always have the highest reported figure each week.

To put the number into context, reported deaths are up 0.9% week-on-week and the last time 172 deaths were actually registered in a single day was 1st November. No day in the last month has got above 150 and the average is currently 115. Hospitalisations are up 2.2% but it’s been reported the majority of patients in hospital in London with Omicron were admitted for other reasons, so it may be fair to assume the same elsewhere.

Too early to be sure, but it’s beginning to look like cases may have peaked last Wednesday (the numbers announced each day are reports, not the day tests were taken).

I think you might have been a bit too optimistic

Possibly, but 106,122 is the number reported today, not the number who tested positive today. 15th December is still the highest by sample date (103,281), followed by the 16th (96,254), then the 14th (94,963). Other days over 80,000 are the 29th December last year, plus 13th, 17th & 20th December this year. 20th December looks possible for a new record as reports tend to lag by a day or two. It’s currently showing 81,760, exactly the same as the previous Monday.

Omicron may be less severe, but we now have triple the cases, so impact will likely be similar.
And every day there are over 100k fewer people who can work - even the 3 days fewer isolation for those recovered isn't going to compensate for the additional people off ill or isolating with Covid compared to the lower infection rate.

I'm not advocating a full lockdown, and hopefully the boosters will prevent high hospitalisations/deaths.
But I share the total distrust in the government's management of the situation - Boris was much more interested in listening to a few of his angry backbenchers, rather than the scientists who were all asking to send stronger messages.
It feels that if we had stronger messages and/or restrictions and earlier, the number of infections wouldn't be quite so outrageous. And I fully accept how infectious Omicron is, but even 70k cases rather than 100K+ cases would make a big difference for society.