So, coronavirus...

[JM2K6]

Because it's insanely contagious, has some amount of immune escape, and because the reasons you gave as to the difference between SA and the UK might just make this a huge problem.

Early analysis isn't that hot here:

[Ymx]

Moderna jab for me. Just done.

From what I’ve read above, it’s been nice knowing you!

[fishfoodie]

Moderna jab for me. Just done.

From what I’ve read above, it’s been nice knowing you!

Snap; got mine this morning.

I think I'll keep hydrated with a nice IPA

[tabascoboy]

COVID-19: Mayor of London Sadiq Khan declares major incident over 'huge surge' of Omicron cases

The mayor of London has declared a major incident in the capital over the "huge surge" of Omicron cases and an increase in hospital admissions.

Sadiq Khan said he has been meeting with colleagues from the NHS, councils and the fire service about the rise in infections of the COVID variant, with more than 10,000 new cases reported nationwide today.

While no new measures have been announced, he said: "In the last 24 hours, we have had the largest number of new cases since the pandemic began, more than 26,000.

"Hospital admissions are going up but also staff absences are going up by massive levels, so I have taken the decision, along with our partners, to declare a major incident."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-may ... s-12499021

But hey let's go on a mass protest about "freedom"

[Calculon]

Good discussion here

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12 ... _source=tw

[Ymx]

Today, a new analysis suggested both that the hospitalization rate in South Africa may have been reduced by as much as 91 percent, compared to the country’s last wave, and that the death rate among those hospitalized may also have fallen by two-thirds — two points that, taken together, suggest as much as a 25-fold or even 30-fold reduction in mortality. On the same day, a report produced by the Imperial College of London suggested there was no clear indication that, among early British cases, Omicron was any less severe at all — though that analysis was based on just a few dozen cases
….



If you assume that these numbers are correct, it would mean a 30-times reduction in fatality relative to previous waves, which is really something. That brings us down to seasonal flu.

[Sandstorm]

Seasonal flu doesn’t spread this fast!!!

[JM2K6]

Always fun to see a lengthy article posted and then someone replying within a couple of minutes cherry picking some quotes from the first part of it

Here, have another one

Well, it goes back to this fundamental problem. If Omicron is milder, then it will be milder everywhere, irrespective of population or irrespective of the vaccine coverage or prior infection. If it’s not particularly milder itself or only marginally so, and what we are observing here with the South African population is a reflection of the fact that essentially the entire population has been exposed or vaccinated or both, then obviously that’s not portable to any other place. It’s a really major question. And sadly, I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from South Africa, really. We don’t actually even know the vaccine status of the hospitalized.

[Lemoentjie]

Always fun to see a lengthy article posted and then someone replying within a couple of minutes cherry picking some quotes from the first part of it

Here, have another one

Well, it goes back to this fundamental problem. If Omicron is milder, then it will be milder everywhere, irrespective of population or irrespective of the vaccine coverage or prior infection. If it’s not particularly milder itself or only marginally so, and what we are observing here with the South African population is a reflection of the fact that essentially the entire population has been exposed or vaccinated or both, then obviously that’s not portable to any other place. It’s a really major question. And sadly, I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from South Africa, really. We don’t actually even know the vaccine status of the hospitalized.

But the entire UK population has been exposed or vaccinated or both. You country releases statistics on the % of adults that have Covid-19 antibodies. It's over 95%. That's probably higher than here.

[JM2K6]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

[Biffer]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Getting there though. In Scotland over 50% of the population over 12 have had their booster. By the end of the year we’ll have a higher percentage of the population with three shots than London has with one.

[Sandstorm]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Is it because they all want to fuck over the South African tourist season?

[petej]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Natural immunity varies wildly. The immune system isn't just antibodies. Really depends on success measures, for me I don't care about cases but do care about hospitalisations, deaths etc .. if you can get loads of cases but low number needing treatment or dying then I'm happy for measures and restrictions to be lifted.

[Ymx]

Well certainly the UK is in a much better place in terms of immunisation and antibodies than SA. I doubt that’s even a discussion. 90+% v 70% I think I read earlier.

The SA population median age is younger. Whilst from what I read the relevant base health levels are better in the UK.

If the difference is really 30 times in a relevant size study. Then even given the above it’s quite a stretch to say we can’t read anything in to it.

I appreciate the parallels with delta where countries (UK/US) had varying impact. But I don’t think they amounted to 30 times.

It’s almost like some people are hell bent to discard any positive news or stats. “Throw the whole lot out, look here’s a slight difference which renders all of it meaningless”. Rather than taking it as very encouraging but with expectations there will be some differences.

I almost wonder what some people are actually hoping to emerge from this? It feels like some want it to be worse. And want to stay in perpetual masked lockdown. I’m sure no one would be that messed up though.

[JM2K6]

Well certainly the UK is in a much better place in terms of immunisation and antibodies than SA. I doubt that’s even a discussion. 90+% v 70% I think I read earlier.

The SA population median age is younger. Whilst from what I read the relevant base health levels are better in the UK.

If the difference is really 30 times in a relevant size study. Then even given the above it’s quite a stretch to say we can’t read anything in to it.

I appreciate the parallels with delta where countries (UK/US) had varying impact. But I don’t think they amounted to 30 times.

It’s almost like some people are hell bent to discard any positive news or stats. “Throw the whole lot out, look here’s a slight difference which renders all of it meaningless”. Rather than taking it as very encouraging but with expectations there will be some differences.

I almost wonder what some people are actually hoping to emerge from this? It feels like some want it to be worse. And want to stay in perpetual masked lockdown. I’m sure no one would be that messed up though.

The whole point is that it's a load of "if"s that you're treating as "definitely". You're willing to listen to someone when they mention some stats you like the sound of, but ignore them when they say we can't draw conclusions yet and that a simple comparison would be wrong.

It'll be fucking great if Omicron just isn't that bad compared to the original strain, but like they all say we're just going to have to wait and see.

[convoluted]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Natural immunity varies wildly. The immune system isn't just antibodies. Really depends on success measures, for me. I don't care about cases but do care about hospitalizations, deaths etc .. if you can get loads of cases but low number needing treatment or dying then I'm happy for measures and restrictions to be lifted.

^^^ am in total agreement, Petej.
It appears that a mass of the Saffa Omicron cases are being identified only because many presenting themselves at hospitals for totally unrelated medical or physical issues show up as infected when compulsorily tested.
Relatively few SA Omicron cases require hospitilization, and their length of stay averages little more than two days.

With Omicron 'seepage' into the lungs seeming minimal does that just mean it happens slowly and the full hit comes later, or is it a positive signal of very little lung damage? Time will tell.

[convoluted]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Are these 'experts' of which you speak the exact same ones who assured you that the current pestilence was entirely natural and in no way connected to the Wuhan lab ... ????

[Ymx]

Well certainly the UK is in a much better place in terms of immunisation and antibodies than SA. I doubt that’s even a discussion. 90+% v 70% I think I read earlier.

The SA population median age is younger. Whilst from what I read the relevant base health levels are better in the UK.

If the difference is really 30 times in a relevant size study. Then even given the above it’s quite a stretch to say we can’t read anything in to it.

I appreciate the parallels with delta where countries (UK/US) had varying impact. But I don’t think they amounted to 30 times.

It’s almost like some people are hell bent to discard any positive news or stats. “Throw the whole lot out, look here’s a slight difference which renders all of it meaningless”. Rather than taking it as very encouraging but with expectations there will be some differences.

I almost wonder what some people are actually hoping to emerge from this? It feels like some want it to be worse. And want to stay in perpetual masked lockdown. I’m sure no one would be that messed up though.

The whole point is that it's a load of "if"s that you're treating as "definitely". You're willing to listen to someone when they mention some stats you like the sound of, but ignore them when they say we can't draw conclusions yet and that a simple comparison would be wrong.

It'll be fucking great if Omicron just isn't that bad compared to the original strain, but like they all say we're just going to have to wait and see.

No one I can see above is treating the if's as definitely. Its the opposite of that, the doomers are writing off strong positive indicators with a "well its different, I can't or won't read anything in to that".

The positive indicators are strong, but will vary between environments as per the statistical world we live in. There of course will be factors which reduce/change that 30 times number between countries. But reduced by 30?? I'm imagining human virulence differences that huge would lie in very small small part of the distribution curve.

It'll be fucking great if Omicron just isn't that bad compared to the original strain

Now was that so fucking hard to say !

[Lemoentjie]

This is interesting....

[JM2K6]

the doomers are writing off strong positive indicators with a "well its different, I can't or won't read anything in to that".

When so many authorities on the topic are stressing that we can't read anything into it, when Whitty goes out of his way to point out that people are misinterpreting the data from SA, then it's not being a "doomer". We'll know in a few weeks. Until then you're just pissing into the wind and mocking the people who refuse to.

Also the weird conspiracy theorist is on your side, it seems.

[Lemoentjie]

I have no idea why you think I'm a conspiracy theorist. I'm vaccinated, I wear a mask in places where it's required (when I don't forget).

Ignoring that 65% of Covid admissions in London are people who are in hospital for reasons that are not Covid, means you can't look honestly at the data.

[Calculon]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Is it because they all want to fuck over the South African tourist season?

Most said the travel bans were pointless and in fact did more harm than good when it comes to scientific cooperation, and because of flight bans making it difficult to get reagents, tests and other consumables to the scientists in Southern Africa.

I doubt they are immense twats like you who think many people losing their livelihoods because of no international tourism is hilarious. Not to even mention the other harm that travel bans cause.

[JM2K6]

I have no idea why you think I'm a conspiracy theorist. I'm vaccinated, I wear a mask in places where it's required (when I don't forget).

Ignoring that 65% of Covid admissions in London are people who are in hospital for reasons that are not Covid, means you can't look honestly at the data.

I think you might be a conspiracy theorist but it's not actually you I was talking about

(That dude you quoted... his pinned thread goes against a LOT of epidemiologists' views...)

[Uncle fester]

Can only report what I'm seeing on the ground but demand for medical oxygen is off the scale. That causes problems when you've to pull an awful lot of air in order to extract 20% of it.

[Margin__Walker]

Piers Corbyn being Piers Corbyn. What a guy.

[Hal Jordan]

What the fuck were his and his protest movement brother's parents up to?

[Hal Jordan]

In other news, yesterday decided not to go to the pantomime tonight, the thought of being in a semi-sealed box with a lot of shouting, laughing and singing primary school kids was ringing the superspreader alarm bells.

Also, today my wife has spent the day in bed with a bad reaction to her Pfizer booster. I had Moderna on Wednesday and motored on with nothing more than a sore arm and tiredness.

[petej]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Are these 'experts' of which you speak the exact same ones who assured you that the current pestilence was entirely natural and in no way connected to the Wuhan lab ... ????

Almost certainly natural (as near to absolute as i'm willing to go on anything). Only way the lab is involved is by accident IE accidently getting infected in a visit to a bat cave and bringing it back. Never really understood the arguments between vaccine induced immunity and natural immunity apart from the increased risk from acquiring immunity via infection. Always seemed a bit pointless to me and to describe one as better than the other, does seem stupid when both will produce different outcomes (antibodies and antibody levels and B/T-Cell) reactions in different people.

scientific experts in their own field are inclined to be a pessimistic but as a non-expert i'm allowed to remain cautiously optimistic.

[Margin__Walker]

What the fuck were his and his protest movement brother's parents up to?

Hilariously, that's the cropped version. He start by ranting about the vaccine giving you AIDS

Bad AIDS presumably

[JM2K6]

Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Are these 'experts' of which you speak the exact same ones who assured you that the current pestilence was entirely natural and in no way connected to the Wuhan lab ... ????

Almost certainly natural (as near to absolute as i'm willing to go on anything). Only way the lab is involved is by accident IE accidently getting infected in a visit to a bat cave and bringing it back. Never really understood the arguments between vaccine induced immunity and natural immunity apart from the increased risk from acquiring immunity via infection. Always seemed a bit pointless to me and to describe one as better than the other, does seem stupid when both will produce different outcomes (antibodies and antibody levels and B/T-Cell) reactions in different people.

scientific experts in their own field are inclined to be a pessimistic but as a non-expert i'm allowed to remain cautiously optimistic.

Vaccines can produce a stronger immune response than the natural process.

[Tichtheid]

Piers Corbyn being Piers Corbyn. What a guy.

He was in Brighton a few weeks ago protesting against a mobile vaccination centre.

He got there after the centre had used up all their vaccines and were packing up for the day but he attempted to mobilised his tiny mob to stop the nurses and stewards from packing up and going home.

I'm sure it was Rowan Atkinson who coined the phrase, "he's a waste of a good pair of underpants"

[Happyhooker]

I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.

I genuinely despair at times

[Biffer]

Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)

London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%

Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%

South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%

North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%

Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%

UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%

London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.

No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.

Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.

(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).

[GrahamWa]

I don't think the 3rd dose figure for Scotland can be correct

[Slick]

I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.

I genuinely despair at times

Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak

[TB63]

I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.

I genuinely despair at times

Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak

That'd get them right in the bollocks..

[Slick]

I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.

I genuinely despair at times

Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak

That'd get them right in the bollocks..

[Uncle fester]

Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)

London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%

Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%

South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%

North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%

Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%

UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%

London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.

No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.

Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.

(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).

Unvaccinated in Ireland seem to be disproportionately foreign. Understandable if they are coming from countries where distrust of authorities is somewhat normal, i.e. former Soviet bloc countries.

Maybe a bit of that going on for London too?

[sockwithaticket]

Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)

London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%

Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%

South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%

North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%

Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%

UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%

London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.

No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.

Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.

(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).

Unvaccinated in Ireland seem to be disproportionately foreign. Understandable if they are coming from countries where distrust of authorities is somewhat normal, i.e. former Soviet bloc countries.

Maybe a bit of that going on for London too?

I recall from around the vaccine roll out they were finding most resistance/scepticism from various communities of colour and London's one of the few spots in the UK where they'll be present in really large numbers.

[Ymx]

Ok, so 22.5 hours in after my Moderna jab.

Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.