JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm
Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough
There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing
Is it because they all want to fuck over the South African tourist season?
Most said the travel bans were pointless and in fact did more harm than good when it comes to scientific cooperation, and because of flight bans making it difficult to get reagents, tests and other consumables to the scientists in Southern Africa.
I doubt they are immense twats like you who think many people losing their livelihoods because of no international tourism is hilarious. Not to even mention the other harm that travel bans cause.
Lemoentjie wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:57 pm
I have no idea why you think I'm a conspiracy theorist. I'm vaccinated, I wear a mask in places where it's required (when I don't forget).
Ignoring that 65% of Covid admissions in London are people who are in hospital for reasons that are not Covid, means you can't look honestly at the data.
I think you might be a conspiracy theorist but it's not actually you I was talking about
(That dude you quoted... his pinned thread goes against a LOT of epidemiologists' views...)
Can only report what I'm seeing on the ground but demand for medical oxygen is off the scale. That causes problems when you've to pull an awful lot of air in order to extract 20% of it.
In other news, yesterday decided not to go to the pantomime tonight, the thought of being in a semi-sealed box with a lot of shouting, laughing and singing primary school kids was ringing the superspreader alarm bells.
Also, today my wife has spent the day in bed with a bad reaction to her Pfizer booster. I had Moderna on Wednesday and motored on with nothing more than a sore arm and tiredness.
JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm
Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough
There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing
Are these 'experts' of which you speak the exact same ones who assured you that the current pestilence was entirely natural and in no way connected to the Wuhan lab ... ????
Almost certainly natural (as near to absolute as i'm willing to go on anything). Only way the lab is involved is by accident IE accidently getting infected in a visit to a bat cave and bringing it back. Never really understood the arguments between vaccine induced immunity and natural immunity apart from the increased risk from acquiring immunity via infection. Always seemed a bit pointless to me and to describe one as better than the other, does seem stupid when both will produce different outcomes (antibodies and antibody levels and B/T-Cell) reactions in different people.
scientific experts in their own field are inclined to be a pessimistic but as a non-expert i'm allowed to remain cautiously optimistic.
JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm
Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough
There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing
Are these 'experts' of which you speak the exact same ones who assured you that the current pestilence was entirely natural and in no way connected to the Wuhan lab ... ????
Almost certainly natural (as near to absolute as i'm willing to go on anything). Only way the lab is involved is by accident IE accidently getting infected in a visit to a bat cave and bringing it back. Never really understood the arguments between vaccine induced immunity and natural immunity apart from the increased risk from acquiring immunity via infection. Always seemed a bit pointless to me and to describe one as better than the other, does seem stupid when both will produce different outcomes (antibodies and antibody levels and B/T-Cell) reactions in different people.
scientific experts in their own field are inclined to be a pessimistic but as a non-expert i'm allowed to remain cautiously optimistic.
Vaccines can produce a stronger immune response than the natural process.
Margin__Walker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:37 pm
Piers Corbyn being Piers Corbyn. What a guy.
He was in Brighton a few weeks ago protesting against a mobile vaccination centre.
He got there after the centre had used up all their vaccines and were packing up for the day but he attempted to mobilised his tiny mob to stop the nurses and stewards from packing up and going home.
I'm sure it was Rowan Atkinson who coined the phrase, "he's a waste of a good pair of underpants"
I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.
Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)
London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%
Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%
South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%
North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%
Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%
UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%
London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.
No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.
Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.
(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).
Happyhooker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:17 pm
I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.
I genuinely despair at times
Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Happyhooker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:17 pm
I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.
I genuinely despair at times
Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak
That'd get them right in the bollocks..
I love watching little children running and screaming, playing hide and seek in the playground.
They don't know I'm using blanks..
Happyhooker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:17 pm
I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.
I genuinely despair at times
Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak
That'd get them right in the bollocks..
All the money you made will never buy back your soul
Biffer wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:10 am
Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)
London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%
Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%
South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%
North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%
Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%
UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%
London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.
No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.
Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.
(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).
Unvaccinated in Ireland seem to be disproportionately foreign. Understandable if they are coming from countries where distrust of authorities is somewhat normal, i.e. former Soviet bloc countries.
Biffer wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:10 am
Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)
London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%
Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%
South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%
North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%
Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%
UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%
London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.
No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.
Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.
(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).
Unvaccinated in Ireland seem to be disproportionately foreign. Understandable if they are coming from countries where distrust of authorities is somewhat normal, i.e. former Soviet bloc countries.
Maybe a bit of that going on for London too?
I recall from around the vaccine roll out they were finding most resistance/scepticism from various communities of colour and London's one of the few spots in the UK where they'll be present in really large numbers.
Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.
London is probaly the part of the UK that can genuinely claim to be different in terms demographics and having communities with different backgrounds, values and traditions. This is all part of the spice of life in any of the worlds geniune global cities but vaccine hesitancy is a obvious downside.
Edit...the Highlands and Islands of Scotland maybe can claim this too but its more to do with the geography.
Biffer wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:10 am
Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)
London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%
Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%
South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%
North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%
Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%
UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%
London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.
No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.
Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.
(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).
Unvaccinated in Ireland seem to be disproportionately foreign. Understandable if they are coming from countries where distrust of authorities is somewhat normal, i.e. former Soviet bloc countries.
Maybe a bit of that going on for London too?
I recall from around the vaccine roll out they were finding most resistance/scepticism from various communities of colour and London's one of the few spots in the UK where they'll be present in really large numbers.
In my part of SW London there is clearly an Eastern European and South African element of resistance which is strongest based on those not wearing masks. Black and Asian seem to be wearing masks but obviously it is not always no mask = no vaccine.
GrahamWa wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:24 am
I don't think the 3rd dose figure for Scotland can be correct
It's not, I believe it is 51%
If having lockdown I think there's a case for them to be regional. London with it's low vaccination is more vulnerable, maybe when a health emergency has been declared as is the case there now. Although Scotland/SNP, if given the financial support, will lockdown regardless of hospital admissions.
GrahamWa wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:24 am
I don't think the 3rd dose figure for Scotland can be correct
It's not, I believe it is 51%
If having lockdown I think there's a case for them to be regional. London with it's low vaccination is more vulnerable, maybe when a health emergency has been declared as is the case there now. Although Scotland/SNP, if given the financial support, will lockdown regardless of hospital admissions.
I think in fairness billions in extra Barnett consequentials were made available as a result of covid spending and its not clear if its all being spent.
GrahamWa wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:24 am
I don't think the 3rd dose figure for Scotland can be correct
It's not, I believe it is 51%
If having lockdown I think there's a case for them to be regional. London with it's low vaccination is more vulnerable, maybe when a health emergency has been declared as is the case there now. Although Scotland/SNP, if given the financial support, will lockdown regardless of hospital admissions.
I think in fairness billions in extra Barnett consequentials were made available as a result of covid spending and its not clear if its all being spent.
Perhaps the 400+ million given to Angus Robertson's constitutional and foriegn affairs department could be reallocated?
Behind the pay was for me, but I agree that governments need to be more transparent in how public money is used. Nicki was saying on Friday that money would need to be diverted from other budgets, which seems ruled out, if more support were to be given to hospitality to cover from their customer base being decimated by gov advice. Hence blaming UK for not giving them more money.
Last edited by Jockaline on Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Basically the article reported on the auditor saying the SG has not yet demonstrated how its spent all the extra money and it appears to have infact underspent by 580 million(!).
It might be rational to see wait for the whole UK to lockdown and presumably provide further furlough directly from HMG but my point is that the devolved admin could act unilaterally now to support hospitality as it has the cash on hand and indeed is spending enough in non devolved areas to cover it.
Wven without the unaccounted for millions and discretionary spending in reserved areas the Treasury has opened the money tap again so presumably more restrictions are incoming
tc27 wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 6:09 pm
Wven without the unaccounted for millions and discretionary spending in reserved areas the Treasury has opened the money tap again so presumably more restrictions are incoming
Not so sure about that. I don't think the restrictions are necessary. The vast majority of the public is pretty sensible and cautious. The money will still be required to support the hospitality sector. I wouldn't be surprised if cases peak in London in a few days.
Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:31 pm
Ok, so 22.5 hours in after my Moderna jab.
Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.
Ok, balls, spoke too soon. It wasn’t a cold. Just tested positive in lat flow test. Booked PCR for tomorrow.
Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:31 pm
Ok, so 22.5 hours in after my Moderna jab.
Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.
Ok, balls, spoke too soon. It wasn’t a cold. Just tested positive in lat flow test. Booked PCR for tomorrow.
Sorry to hear that - hopefully it will just be a mild case - bit of a bummer having to isolate over Xmas......
Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:31 pm
Ok, so 22.5 hours in after my Moderna jab.
Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.
Ok, balls, spoke too soon. It wasn’t a cold. Just tested positive in lat flow test. Booked PCR for tomorrow.
Sorry to hear that - hopefully it will just be a mild case - bit of a bummer having to isolate over Xmas......
Judging by the people I know and talk to, there’s a 50/50 chance he’ll do that.
Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:31 pm
Ok, so 22.5 hours in after my Moderna jab.
Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.
Ok, balls, spoke too soon. It wasn’t a cold. Just tested positive in lat flow test. Booked PCR for tomorrow.
Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:31 pm
Ok, so 22.5 hours in after my Moderna jab.
Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.
Ok, balls, spoke too soon. It wasn’t a cold. Just tested positive in lat flow test. Booked PCR for tomorrow.
Ymx wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:31 pm
Ok, so 22.5 hours in after my Moderna jab.
Woke up with slight headache, and sore arm. I’ve a cold which is not helping, but mostly the previous symptoms didn’t prevail. So far, beyond all predictions I’m still alive.
Ok, balls, spoke too soon. It wasn’t a cold. Just tested positive in lat flow test. Booked PCR for tomorrow.
"Lockdown for 21 days to flatten the curve and save the health service".
"Having the vaccine protects yourself reduces transmission and allows society to get back to normal".
I got dog piled at the start of the year (at the other place, but most of those posters seem to be here now), for stating a few things on this. That China lied, in no particular order: videos of people collapsing dead in the street the "dead" person breaking their fall, people being welded into their homes, a case and death rate that dropped to zero like nowhere else in the world, the origin of the virus very likely not being from bat biltong. I then made the obvious connection that copying China was perhaps a bad idea, because you know, the mountain of lies. I then further pointed out that because Covid is now endemic to human populations everywhere that vaccines were going to be of limited use (I wasn't originally going to bother with the vaccine as I'm not an at risk category, but ended up getting it very early, and it's since shown to be effective in reducing cases that require hospitalisation).
Now it's the end of the year, everyone in the developed world that wanted the vaccine has had an opportunity to get it. In SA also, pretty much everyone that wanted it has had the opportunity (Ramaphosa was talking kak when he claimed SA didn't have vaccine because of the West or something, most South Africans aren't vaccinated because they don't assess the risk as high, it's the same in Namibia where vaccine was destroyed because it went out of date). But we're still essentially in the same conversation about vaccines (now boosters)/Covid passes/lockdowns/isolating/travel bans/and all the rest of it. If something is endemic to the human population, this makes all these measures either pointless, or alternatively useful to some extent (vaccines) but only implementable forever by people doing so of their own volition.
None of the human interventions have made any impact on the evolutionary trajectory of the virus. If you go on worldometers and sort by deaths per million, countries with wildly different strategies/populations/development levels, come out not much different to each other. Sweden and South Africa have nearly the same deaths per million, neither are in the top 50, both countries and the Covid strategies they implemented were about as different as it's possible to be.
The end destination of all this is likely endemic Covid (there is a chance it just naturally disappears though). Quite a lot of people and governments are still behaving like the end destination is zero Covid and they can make that happen. There's some sunk cost fallacy going on now.
Omicron looks to be the critical variant in how this all goes. Omicron seems to show Covid is evolving towards less deadly but more infectious. In the UK (a developed nation with a health service covering everyone) in a normal year 20k-30k people die of flu/pneumonia. So the question is, in any reasonably large country can people accept that 1000s will die each year of Covid? If Omicron infects millions and not many people die (like the flu) and it's still deemed a deadly pandemic etc, then the logic of that is controls forever.
The whole discussion has unfortunately become Americanised, meaning it's both stupid and toxic. But unlike the hysteria over Trump we're all forced to follow this shit show, so I'll check back in on this sometime in 2022. Maybe Australia will have stopped expanding their concentration camp system by mid-2022.
Calculon wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:57 pm
Most said the travel bans were pointless and in fact did more harm than good when it comes to scientific cooperation, and because of flight bans making it difficult to get reagents, tests and other consumables to the scientists in Southern Africa.
I doubt they are immense twats like you who think many people losing their livelihoods because of no international tourism is hilarious. Not to even mention the other harm that travel bans cause.
I told you at the start of the year, that copying China's authoritarian dictatorship that lied about all of this, maybe wasn't the best move. You were one of the dog pilers!
But here we are. SA banned, then SA not banned, then SA banned, then SA not banned. Now France and Germany have banned the UK.
Got a walk in booster yesterday. No side affects, 3 from 3 on that front. Loads of people there and very efficiently run as ever.
I was talking with a bloke from Eastern Europe I work with recently about vaccine hesitancy. He isn't personally but seeing it from the perspective of people who grew up in the Eastern Bloc makes it much more understandable IMHO.
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot, But he'll remember with advantages, What feats he did that day
Bored of this hysteria. SA reporting Omicron admissions to hospital are 91% lower than previous variants. Some twonk on the beeb whining "but, but.... we have an older population in the UK". Yes, you w*nker. But SA has a much, much lower vaccination rate.
Just been told by a friend working in MK Hospital that there are currently TWELVE Corona cases in the entire hospital out of 1200 patients. He wasn't able to determine how many obesity bed blockers there were.
