So, coronavirus...

[Uncle fester]

A very weird equivalence to be drawing.

Not really. A different one perhaps. An absolute shitload of vulnerable minors were locked down and considering their personal risk to COVID no one could really say it was for their benefit. Others have covered not being able to visit loved ones in hospitals or attend funerals and adults have a greater ability to voice their perspective than minors.

Sometimes an outside view is helpful. Just accept that you are wrong on this and move on.

[mat the expat]

folk are even going to start abandoning simple measures like mask wearing as they have had enough. Critical couple of weeks coming.

You don't want that - 2 weeks of that prior to Xmas here in NSW has caused Omicron to hit all over the country.

The Feds and State government have lost control here

Watching coverage of the Ashes, it did seem that spectators were cheek by jowl and maskless.

Are there any spikes commensurate?

100% - it's had a massive impact

Hubris

[petej]

A very weird equivalence to be drawing.

Not really. A different one perhaps. An absolute shitload of vulnerable minors were locked down and considering their personal risk to COVID no one could really say it was for their benefit. Others have covered not being able to visit loved ones in hospitals or attend funerals and adults have a greater ability to voice their perspective than minors.

Sometimes an outside view is helpful. Just accept that you are wrong on this and move on.

Explain why you think it is weird?

[Insane_Homer]

[Lemoentjie]

FFP3 masks - almost 100% effective at stopping the wearer catching Covid from airborne transmission.

FFP2 masks - only slightly less effective than FFP3. Main difference is that there's not as tight a seal.

Surgical masks - almost completely ineffective at stopping airborne transmission (which is the main method of Covid-19 transmission). Sars-Cov-2 particles are around 1000 times as small as the gaps in surgical masks. However they are quite effective at stopping droplets from coughing/sneezing.

Cloth masks - even worse than surgical masks. The gaps in the mask are around 5000 times larger than Sars-Cov-2 particles.

The argument used to be that all airborne Covid-19 particles originated as large droplets, so even cloth masks would cut transmission. However it seems like infected people automatically generate aerosols and microdroplets, which aren't stopped by the fabric of surgical masks (ignoring the fact there's no tight seal, so some droplets will escape in any case). Source: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -ffp2-ffp3.

All of this, combined with the Denmark and Bangladesh RCTs, has leaded me to conclude that surgical masks and cloth mask 'mandates' are pointless.

If you want to protect yourself, get an FFP3 or FFP2 mask.

[TheFrog]

FFP3 masks - almost 100% effective at stopping the wearer catching Covid from airborne transmission.

FFP2 masks - only slightly less effective than FFP3. Main difference is that there's not as tight a seal.

Surgical masks - almost completely ineffective at stopping airborne transmission (which is the main method of Covid-19 transmission). Sars-Cov-2 particles are around 1000 times as small as the gaps in surgical masks. However they are quite effective at stopping droplets from coughing/sneezing.

Cloth masks - even worse than surgical masks. The gaps in the mask are around 5000 times larger than Sars-Cov-2 particles.

The argument used to be that all airborne Covid-19 particles originated as large droplets, so even cloth masks would cut transmission. However it seems like infected people automatically generate aerosols and microdroplets, which aren't stopped by the fabric of surgical masks (ignoring the fact there's no tight seal, so some droplets will escape in any case). Source: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -ffp2-ffp3.

All of this, combined with the Denmark and Bangladesh RCTs, has leaded me to conclude that surgical masks and cloth mask 'mandates' are pointless.

If you want to protect yourself, get an FFP3 or FFP2 mask.

May be not entirely pointless but they may only provide 20 to 50% protection, which, extended to a huge population may still have a positive impact in reducing hospitalizations and the impact on the economy.

[Lemoentjie]

I don't believe they offer 20-50% protection, because of two reasons:

a) The RCTs performed in Bangladesh and Denmark (with cloth/surgical masks) found very little effect.

b) No country that is extremely strict on wearing masks (Spain, for example) has done much better than kind of similar countries that aren't so strict (UK, Sweden).

[Slick]

Pop on a mask for the 0.3% of your day that you are in a shop or on the bus.

There we go, that wasn’t too difficult was it?

[Blackmac]

How many people on here are still following the guidelines? I have to say there is not a chance in hell I'm going to do another LFT's with any minor cold symptoms or before meeting people. Will not wear masks if others aren't regardless of rules. Noticed that lots are doing the same at the weekend.

Basically why the hell should I comply with anything coming out of our governments mouthpieces? There is less stench from what enters a sewage treatment facility then comes out of this governments orifices.

It strikes me that while Arthur labinjo-hughes was being slowly tortured to death and all the things in place were shutdown (schools) or blocked to protect him and extended family couldn't check due to covid restrictions our pm was having garden parties.

The hypocrisy of Eton posh boys doesn't stop me wanting to protect my friends and family.

This! I pay no attention now to what the UK Gov says in terms of covid, completely untrustworthy and motived by money (their own) rather than protecting our public health. I go to SAGE or Indie Sage for info and look at data on Travelling Tabby for updates.

I still wear mask (N95) when in indoor areas apart from home and only take off when seated and eating/drinking. I avoid crowded and poorly ventilated places but luckily local pubs are very well managed and well ventilated, even in winter. I still wear mask on public transport, in shops, etc. I get tested - PCR and blood finger print test - monthly by ONS for their UK study and will do a LFT once or twice a week if I am going out or meeting friends. I also contribute daily to the ZOE study via the app and have on occasion at their request taken a PCR or blood test.

One of my golfing buddies is obese and has type 2 diabetes, he hasn't had covid so why wouldn't I wear a mask and take a LFT if it keeps him safe from harm? N95 masks cost me £15 for 20, surgical masks were £12 for 50 (I'm lucky I can afford this) and the LFT was free and takes about 5 mins twice a week so its is hardly stripping me of my freedom or depriving me of my human rights.

I am constantly pissed off with folk complaining about masks and having to wear them, of course no one wants to wear one but in the scale of things it is really a pretty minor inconvenience. I am an overweight asthmatic 62 year old yet, when gyms first reopened, I managed to do 25 mins on the cross trainer and 40 mins of weight training 3/4 times a week whilst wearing a surgical mask at all times. At worst it was slightly annoying but for most of the time I completely forgot I was wearing it despite being out of breath. I wish some folk would just grow a pair!

The striking thing for me is that nearly everyone not wearing masks look mostly like the very people that should. I can't for the life of me understand why they think the inconvenience of wearing a mask is worse than the potential of getting covid.

I'm a very fit and at the moment healthy 53 year old. I wear a mask as required and also seem to be the only person in Scotland that still cleans the handles of a shopping trolley. Whilst people say Covid is now mild, I still don't want to get it if I can help myself avoid it by taking simple measures to protect myself.

[Tichtheid]

Marina, on masks or anti maskers

As for mentioning the war, forgive me. Around 70,000 Britons died in second world war bombing raids, most of them in the blitz, while 145,000 have thus far perished from Covid. Yet somehow there does seem to be a large intersection between the Venn diagram sets “People who bang on endlessly about WW2” and “People who cannot cope with having to take a relatively minor public health measure for the greater good”.


Of course, in London, both positions have links with the tube. In December 1940, you’d have been snatching a couple of hours’ troubled sleep on the underground platform while Hitler blew up your house. In December 2021, you’d be on your way to Oxford Street on the Central line to sample the pre-Christmas enticements of JD Sports. Yet still, somehow, managing to see a few minutes of mask-wearing in a non-ventilated space as an outrageous imposition on your personage, with which you – a stone-cold hero – simply shouldn’t be involved.

But why? It’s really not that bad, is it, to have to wear a mask in limited settings, if it might help other people, even a bit? For all their big talk, you can’t help thinking those unable to bring themselves to do it wouldn’t make the first sacrifice for their fellow humans, let alone the ultimate one.

As they shout – or type in capitals – the words “THE BRITISH PEOPLE HAVE HAD ENOUGH”, it’s intriguing to remember that chaps like this really fancy their chances at having been able to cope with the blitz. Picture this person, this person who wets their pants and goes full online Braveheart over being asked to wear a mask between Liverpool Street and Holborn. Assuming they didn’t think air raid sirens were part of some “great reset” and ignored them (fatally), try to imagine this person trudging out of the tube station after the air raid. Try to imagine them discovering they didn’t have a street any more, having to remake their lives and those of their family in an anguished instant, by migrating somewhere else in the country in the clothes they stood in. Or try to imagine them having been taken in by friends or relatives, and turning straight back up to the bomb site with a broom to assist in clearing the rubble. I don’t want to be a bitch, but if you lose your mind over being asked to pop on a face covering in Boots, I honestly don’t think you’d be up to a whole lot of the above.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ublic-good

[dpedin]

Pop on a mask for the 0.3% of your day that you are in a shop or on the bus.

There we go, that wasn’t too difficult was it?

This! Just wear a feckin mask!

It is the suite of PH protections that are important - get vaccinated, wear a mask, wash your hands, stay 1m+ apart from others, maintain good ventilation, etc. Each will incrementally add to your overall safety and protection from covid. Even if you are not bothered about your own health do it for others. We knew 100+ years ago they make a difference - this is a little story worth reading on mask wearing during a pandemic. I have posted it before, it is not a randomised control trial study but sometimes real life tells us something worthwhile and it still seems pertinent.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10 ... 21.1891615

[Biffer]

Yeah, it's marginal gains. X adds 5% protection, Y adds 20%, Z adds 10% and you've got a 35% reduction.

[Lemoentjie]

Pop on a mask for the 0.3% of your day that you are in a shop or on the bus.

There we go, that wasn’t too difficult was it?

It's also pointless, if it's a surgical/cloth mask.

It's worrying that Governments have implemented these policies without solid evidence.

In Germany at least they require FFP2 masks, I think.

Making it a requirement by law, punishable by the state, that people do something on the basis of "well, it can't do any harm" is insane. Surgical/cloth masks are little more than a comfort blanket because people think that they should work.

There's a reason why RCTs are the gold standard for examining the impact of this kind of thing.

The vaccines work very well in RCTs.

[JM2K6]

Pop on a mask for the 0.3% of your day that you are in a shop or on the bus.

There we go, that wasn’t too difficult was it?

It's also pointless, if it's a surgical/cloth mask.

It's worrying that Governments have implemented these policies without solid evidence.

In Germany at least they require FFP2 masks, I think.

Making it a requirement by law, punishable by the state, that people do something on the basis of "well, it can't do any harm" is insane. Surgical/cloth masks are little more than a comfort blanket because people think that they should work.

There's a reason why RCTs are the gold standard for examining the impact of this kind of thing.

The vaccines work very well in RCTs.

"It's pointless" isn't a reading that's backed up by your links. The study in Bangladesh suggested a decent impact as a result of wearing surgical masks, and a smaller amount from cloth masks. I don't think anyone will argue that FFP2 masks aren't much better, but even cloth masks make a difference. In addition, pretty much every other study of the epidemiology and the various meta-studies have all confirmed that mask wearing among the population - which would be overwhelmingly not FFP2 - helps quite a lot.

By all means press for better PPE for the general population, that's a worthy cause. But claiming that other masks are pointless is incorrect.

[dpedin]

I was looking for a snazzy diagram I saw a few weeks ago re effectiveness of different masks but can't find it, however this one does the same job albeit relates to Delta variant. Cloth masks are not hugely effective in minimising risks of infection but given the duration of many contacts with folk ie in supermarket, on bus, etc are of short duration then it is worth wearing one. Even better if the other person wears one too! However SM offer slightly more protection and of course N95 offer excellent protection.

For me, even if protection is limited I would still wear a cloth mask if nothing else was available, even an extra 3-4 minutes of protection from an infected non mask wearing nutter in the supermarket queue is worth it! The key point is that if everyone wears a mask then protection for everyone increases. Don't be a muppet, wear a mask!

[Biffer]

Those kinds of charts are bullshit. So many assumptions and average that they're of very little use in a public health setting.

[JM2K6]

Yeah, he explicitly states his assumptions in the tweet. It's not direct evidence for the efficacy of masks.

[Enzedder]

Well this is good - I reckon it's the type of bastard thing waiting to line me up

DELTACRON:
A scientist in Cyprus recently reported a variant in 25 patients that looked like a genetic combination of both Omicron and Delta. While it is possible for different variants to “recombine,” scientists looking at the data believe that this is a case of contamination in the lab where the sequencing took place. Evaluation is on-going, but while “deltacron” sounds like another cool transformer name it is likely NOT something you need to worry about (yet )
https://qz.com/.../deltacron-variant-is ... -a-lab.../

[laurent]

Well this is good - I reckon it's the type of bastard thing waiting to line me up

DELTACRON:
A scientist in Cyprus recently reported a variant in 25 patients that looked like a genetic combination of both Omicron and Delta. While it is possible for different variants to “recombine,” scientists looking at the data believe that this is a case of contamination in the lab where the sequencing took place. Evaluation is on-going, but while “deltacron” sounds like another cool transformer name it is likely NOT something you need to worry about (yet )
https://qz.com/.../deltacron-variant-is ... -a-lab.../

Thankfully most likely a lab error

[Calculon]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

[Biffer]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

There aren't that many countries in the world that have the academic base around epidemic modelling that we have. So it's proba ly more prominent here than in most places.

[Enzedder]

Aren't those scenarios based on what could happen if no action is taken?

[dpedin]

Modelling isn't about predictions, it all depends on what assumptions you make and model, usually based on what is known at the time. So if a new variant comes along and you don't know much about it then you might base modelling assumptions on what you know of existing/previous variants and if then if more info becomes available then you change your assumptions accordingly. Models all say 'here are the assumptions on which this model is based' and usually they can be refined, changed and adapted as more info comes to light. Trying to diminish the role of modelling because folk think they are wrong is just plain stupid and I wouldn't expect anything less from the Spectator to be honest.

As said above the UK has a very strong history in epidemiology, public health medicine and in associated modelling capability, let's celebrate it and not diminish it because a few right wing populists don't understand it and don't like it for political reasons..

[Ymx]

What’s the opinion on SAGE?

[petej]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

they've been prominent in influencing UK policy. Essentially, because Johnson is such a moron they have had to consistently use worse case scenarios to get him to act. With a competent leader they wouldn't have been so noticeable. Spectator has zero integrity and a lot of the time forgets to note a change of policy on a model that assumes no change in policy.

[Ymx]

What’s the opinion on SAGE?

Doh. I should have opened Calculons link.

[Biffer]

What’s the opinion on SAGE?

All very good scientists but I'm not certain that all the individual Sage panels (there are multiple Sage groups) have a broad enough range of opinion to fully reflect that genuine range of scientific opinion in that area. Not saying every opinion needs represented, but I think some panels may have a certain level of groupthink.

[Ymx]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

[Wrinkles]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

Not sure why that’s worrying. Given 1:15 are estimated to have Covid, deaths are barely above the average infection level. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6,000 deaths a day at this stage, but even the BBC are now talking down the numbers - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60000391

[Ymx]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

Not sure why that’s worrying. Given 1:15 are estimated to have Covid, deaths are barely above the average infection level. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6,000 deaths a day at this stage, but even the BBC are now talking down the numbers - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60000391

Did you click my spoiler? Was making a point of the reality of it vs published.

[Biffer]

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

This is an interesting analysis

https://t.co/ewlOoqAHav

[Wrinkles]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

Not sure why that’s worrying. Given 1:15 are estimated to have Covid, deaths are barely above the average infection level. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6,000 deaths a day at this stage, but even the BBC are now talking down the numbers - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60000391

Did you click my spoiler? Was making a point of the reality of it vs published.

Bugger. No, I hadn’t noticed it! As you were.

[Ymx]

[C69]

Well with regards to vaccines and work in the NHS, I recieved a list of all the staff in my dept that I have to discuss Vaccine as a Condition of Deployment (VCOD).
Give all the staff are patient facing and the opportunities of non patient facing activities are scarce/non existent then this is going to be challenging to say the least.

I suspect the shit is about to hot the fan actoss the NHS. I for one am not looking forward to having these discussions and will ensure I have a box of tears for the staff and a flack jacket and armour for me.

[petej]

Well with regards to vaccines and work in the NHS, I recieved a list of all the staff in my dept that I have to discuss Vaccine as a Condition of Deployment (VCOD).
Give all the staff are patient facing and the opportunities of non patient facing activities are scarce/non existent then this is going to be challenging to say the least.

I suspect the shit is about to hot the fan actoss the NHS. I for one am not looking forward to having these discussions and will ensure I have a box of tears for the staff and a flack jacket and armour for me.

I would be surprised if any one who works in a hospital hasn't been exposed to COVID. Considering where we are isn't this is increasingly pointless? Some point soon ie in the next 6 months we are going to give up on the isolation and separation of COVID patients.

[tc27]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

[petej]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

Not sure deaths even went up at all. Perhaps because Omicron displaced delta (and booster role out +increased immunity) deaths actually fell. There is a downward trend since the beginning November.

Screenshot_20220117-101459.png (259.94 KiB) Viewed 1241 times

[dpedin]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

Hopefully this is the end of this wave. This is the third/fourth wave of cases and deaths we have had with covid and although the number of cases has been high the number of deaths with this wave has been greatly reduced thanks to the vaccination programme. It seems to be the unvaccinated who are disproportionately dying with omicron. Will this be the last wave of cases and will another variant emerge, we don't know yet. From what I have been told there is likely to be another wave of omicron later in the spring so this is a good time to really push the vaccination programme amongst those reluctant to have it and within the younger age groups. This would save guard us against future variants which hopefully the vaccines will still protect us against. Hopefully first world countries will also now push the vaccination programme world wide and protect us by protecting the world poorest from this virus.

[dpedin]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

Not sure deaths even went up at all. Perhaps because Omicron displaced delta (and booster role out +increased immunity) deaths actually fell. There is a downward trend since the beginning November.
Screenshot_20220117-101459.png

Excess deaths in UK have been higher than 5 year average pre pandemic since end of July 2021. Whilst I understand the debate about underlying cause/cause of death data the reality is that the covid pandemic has directly resulted in more folk dying, about c1,500 folk per week on average (guesstimate from eyeballing data) since July 2021. One small glimmer of hope is that the excess deaths number is getting smaller.

[JM2K6]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

they've been prominent in influencing UK policy. Essentially, because Johnson is such a moron they have had to consistently use worse case scenarios to get him to act. With a competent leader they wouldn't have been so noticeable. Spectator has zero integrity and a lot of the time forgets to note a change of policy on a model that assumes no change in policy.

Yeah, it cannot be stated strongly enough that the Spectator has form for this - they are not an unbiased source. As I mentioned here: http://notplanetrugby.com/viewtopic.php ... 45#p164679 their attempt at a 'dashboard' tracking reality vs SAGE was deeply disingenuous