What's going on in Ukraine?

[yermum]

what its like to be in an ammo dump as its exploding around you.

some of the most intense footage I have seen

[Flockwitt]

that's up there with the two madmen holding off the entire Russian army...!

[Paddington Bear]

Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

People said that in WW1. A bit before that but Gatling was very hopeful that his gun was so lethal that it would render pitched battle and prolonged war pointless, and here we are.

Don't forget that Russia actually did break in ww1 through a combination of military reversals and domestic unrest.

After three years and life got significantly worse for almost all Russians. This may play on people's minds there, but not in the way we might hope.

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[tabascoboy]

I did that one earlier though they were still debating what drone type it was...

[FalseBayFC]

Swedish Special Forces Operators show their stuff.

[TheFrog]

what its like to be in an ammo dump as its exploding around you.

some of the most intense footage I have seen

That war is surreal. Random soldiers filming on their mobile phones random catastrophic events and sharing it on YouTube.

I think never before has a war been documented live in this way.

[TheFrog]

I guess a key factor is the ability to maintain (actually repair) the gears as they wear out through combats and to supply the ammunition required to sustain the fight.

We hear conflicting messages on this and I would be relieved if there could be at least a confirmation from the ammunition manufacturers that their production rates are going up and fast enough.

Romania and Slovakia have recommenced production of 152mm ammunition to supply Ukraine.

One of these will also make barrels

French defence sector has been asked to ramp production too

25% of or modern artillery has been shipped to Ukraine and there are orders to fill as well as rebuild our stock.

Heard this and this is good news.
Europe needs to prepare for a war economy. My view here is that this war will not be won by either party through decisive battles. It will be won by the party that resists longer - and for Ukraine that includes Ukraine on the ground and its Western allies who will have to convince their populations that it is right and important to spend money on military equipment and cope with the increasing prices of energy, and shortages of gas.

[Calculon]

Long but interesting thread on Russian military production capacity. Basically they can't make their own machine tools and rely mostly on Europe countries, not china. The Russians bought shit loads of tools with all their oil and gas money.

[inactionman]

Reports on the poor sods sentenced to death on risible terrorism charges don't look too good, but you'd hope there's a lot of diplomatic activity going on under the covers to get them repatriated through prisoner exchange.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... unning-out

This all sets aside the massively contradictory/hypocritical position taken by the Russians and separatists regarding the use of mercenaries or fighters not perceived as regular troops, and the fact they're actually Ukrainian soldiers.

I recall the Ukrainians caught a few Wagner pilots, wondering if they would be used as leverage.

[Uncle fester]

Doubt the Russians give a fück about the Wagner guys.

Apparently the Chechens get repatriated immediately though.

[tabascoboy]

There has been talk of encirclement yesterday/today but seem that may have been avoided. Sensible, hopefully an orderly withdrawal that leaves them intact to muster defences in a better position

[inactionman]

Doubt the Russians give a fück about the Wagner guys.

Apparently the Chechens get repatriated immediately though.

Common sense would say Russia should at least be seen to have some concern about their recruited fighters, even if just as an ongoing encouragement to others - although I concede common sense seems another thing they're running short of, and they haven't shown much concern over morale up until now.

I don't actually know what happens to repatriated prisoners, I'd assume the terms of repatriation would forbid re-entering the fray but I can't see what would actually stop them.

[FalseBayFC]

Long but interesting thread on Russian military production capacity. Basically they can't make their own machine tools and rely mostly on Europe countries, not china. The Russians bought shit loads of tools with all their oil and gas money.

That kamikaze drone bombing of that refinery made me think how many valves, gauges and precision instrumentation are involved in the oil and gas industry. All manufactured by the US, Germany, Japan, UK, South Korea etc. They're screwed I reckon. They'll exist on reserves, cannibalization and jury-rigging stuff for a little while. But eventually a cascade effect is going to hit every part of their industrial world and economy. I think its irreversible at this stage.

[Hellraiser]

There has been talk of encirclement yesterday/today but seem that may have been avoided. Sensible, hopefully an orderly withdrawal that leaves them intact to muster defences in a better position

The Ukrainians don't risk their troops unnecessarily. From the very start their entire tactical/operational policy has been to kill as many Russians as possible with as few casualties as possible even if they have to concede ground.

[Hellraiser]

Long but interesting thread on Russian military production capacity. Basically they can't make their own machine tools and rely mostly on Europe countries, not china. The Russians bought shit loads of tools with all their oil and gas money.

That kamikaze drone bombing of that refinery made me think how many valves, gauges and precision instrumentation are involved in the oil and gas industry. All manufactured by the US, Germany, Japan, UK, South Korea etc. They're screwed I reckon. They'll exist on reserves, cannibalization and jury-rigging stuff for a little while. But eventually a cascade effect is going to hit every part of their industrial world and economy. I think its irreversible at this stage.

There's already been fires and explosions at refineries and other oil and gas facilities deep enough inside Russia that they can be a reasonably be assumed to be maintenance and corner-cutting problems rather than sabotage.

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[petej]

There has been talk of encirclement yesterday/today but seem that may have been avoided. Sensible, hopefully an orderly withdrawal that leaves them intact to muster defences in a better position

The Ukrainians don't risk their troops unnecessarily. From the very start their entire tactical/operational policy has been to kill as many Russians as possible with as few casualties as possible even if they have to concede ground.

At some point they are going to have to go on the offensive. Does look they have managed approx 4 to 1 KIA once you take into account LPR/DPR and mercenaries.

[FalseBayFC]

[quote=Hellraiser post_id=215078 time=1655981584 user_id=170

There's already been fires and explosions at refineries and other oil and gas facilities deep enough inside Russia that they can be a reasonably be assumed to be maintenance and corner-cutting problems rather than sabotage.
[/quote]

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[tabascoboy]

Is our Glorious Brexit Leader going to congratulate them I wonder...

In other news, more HIMARS for UA

[Flockwitt]

The additional HIMARs are the business. Now Ukraine will be able to deploy these in different theatres. Hopefully these are going to be here you are ready.

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[Flockwitt]

I wonder where Ukraine will have a go at first once they get the opportunity. I would suggest Kherson front. Difficult for Russia to move additional troops there and less chance of things to go badly wrong. A threat to Crimea will force Putin's hand in the east. The Russians definitely want to keep it.

[Hellraiser]

I wonder where Ukraine will have a go at first once they get the opportunity. I would suggest Kherson front. Difficult for Russia to move additional troops there and less chance of things to go badly wrong. A threat to Crimea will force Putin's hand in the east. The Russians definitely want to keep it.

I think Kherson is definitely the priority. The Ukrainians have gone dark on the South but have little issue with admitting withdrawals in Donbas. I reckon the PzH 2000s and HIMARS are going straight to Kherson. There's been so many troop withdrawals from Melitopol and even Mariupol that a solid strike from the West and Zaporizhzhia could see the Russians break and rout provided the Ukrainians have enough heavy equipment to push through.

[fishfoodie]

I wonder where Ukraine will have a go at first once they get the opportunity. I would suggest Kherson front. Difficult for Russia to move additional troops there and less chance of things to go badly wrong. A threat to Crimea will force Putin's hand in the east. The Russians definitely want to keep it.

I think Kherson is definitely the priority. The Ukrainians have gone dark on the South but have little issue with admitting withdrawals in Donbas. I reckon the PzH 2000s and HIMARS are going straight to Kherson. There's been so many troop withdrawals from Melitopol and even Mariupol that a solid strike from the West and Zaporizhzhia could see the Russians break and rout provided the Ukrainians have enough heavy equipment to push through.

It might be, but it'd be playing the Russians game if they let themselves get drawn into the WW I type slog they want, where they can just reinforce the static battle lines & used the separatists as cannon fodder.

Instead, I think they should do the exact opposite, & force the Russians to maneuver & defend all across that enormous front; & that will force Putin to do what he doesn't want to do .. commit Russian forces.

Eventually they'll force the Russians to move out of their positions down in the South, & that'll be the opportunity to strike in at Kherson.

[tabascoboy]

They've made a heroic defence to bleed the Russians as much as possible, but time to go

[Flockwitt]

Seems strange that they publicise what they'll do before they do it.

[tabascoboy]

A few things going on...including the growing rumour of the public announcement by Russia of mobilization within the next 7 - 10 days

[yermum]

[Flockwitt]

So the EU backed off Lithuania enforcing sanctions for transit goods...

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Rumours floating around on Telegram that UAF reconnaissance units have entered the outskirts of Kherson city.

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