What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

I sincerely doubt that was a HIMARS strike. They wouldn't risk having them that close to the front line. I would guess it was a Tochka-U strike.

[tabascoboy]

I sincerely doubt that was a HIMARS strike. They wouldn't risk having them that close to the front line. I would guess it was a Tochka-U strike.

Would have been a bold move, considering...

Seems strange that they publicise what they'll do before they do it.

Info was leaked by civilians on Social Media apparently, whether that was Pro Russian informers or just "careless talk"

[FalseBayFC]

Patriarch Kirill takes a spill. He's known to be a Putin stooge.

[FalseBayFC]

[quote=Flockwitt post_id=215284 time=1656063389 user_id=601

This could easily become an iconic image of this war. Reminds me somehow of Dorothea Lange's Migrant Mother.

[Gumboot]

[quote=Flockwitt post_id=215284 time=1656063389 user_id=601

This could easily become an iconic image of this war. Reminds me somehow of Dorothea Lange's Migrant Mother.

Yep, could be any number of her dustbowl portraits. Desperate times.

[Blake]

[quote=Flockwitt post_id=215284 time=1656063389 user_id=601

This could easily become an iconic image of this war. Reminds me somehow of Dorothea Lange's Migrant Mother.

That photo will definitely be "up there" among the many others. There have been a couple that have been iconic as the stages of the war have progressed. These are two that I will always remember.

Drone photo of T-72 Turret in Ukrainian field:


Azovstal Defenders:

[FalseBayFC]

[quote=Flockwitt post_id=215284 time=1656063389 user_id=601

This could easily become an iconic image of this war. Reminds me somehow of Dorothea Lange's Migrant Mother.

Yep, could be any number of her dustbowl portraits. Desperate times.

All in the eyes.

[Hellraiser]

The launch site for the strike on Svatove was 100km south so it definitely wasn't HIMARS.

[laurent]

The launch site for the strike on Svatove was 100km south so it definitely wasn't HIMARS.

Toshka more likely

Looks like the Ukrainians have Either got a stash (been using quite a few) or reactivated stocks.

They did have a very competent Rocket industry (and Jet engines too).

[Flockwitt]

Things kicking off in Georgia?

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status ... 4596350979

[Jockaline]

The launch site for the strike on Svatove was 100km south so it definitely wasn't HIMARS.

Toshka more likely

Looks like the Ukrainians have Either got a stash (been using quite a few) or reactivated stocks.

They did have a very competent Rocket industry (and Jet engines too).

Maybe they were holding them back for emergency use in really critical situations, but because of the weapons now coming from other countries they don't need to do that. Looking forward to news getting better in the days ahead.

Also want to add my appriection for all those that post in this thread, with special mention to Hellraiser, who has been outstanding.

[Hellraiser]

The launch site for the strike on Svatove was 100km south so it definitely wasn't HIMARS.

Toshka more likely

Looks like the Ukrainians have Either got a stash (been using quite a few) or reactivated stocks.

They did have a very competent Rocket industry (and Jet engines too).

That's my belief too. I reckon they either have stock they've been holding back/reactivated, or they have undisclosed weapons manufactories still quietly producing munitions in western Ukraine. Possibly both.

[tabascoboy]

Putin continues to play Lukashenko for the weak fool that he is. Lukashenko has Putin's arm so far up his arse he can probably taste it. He must love being a vassal, since Belarus is ever more clearly seen as being welcomed back officially as part of Russia before long. Suggestions being made that the supply of Iskanders is an exchange for munitions from Belarus to his own forces, and probably still hoping to use Belarus as more cannon fodder. Any pre-emptive attack by Ukraine against Belarus would just inflame the situation for themselves further, it must be hard to sit on their hands while Russia freely uses Belarus territory for rocket and missile launches.

[Flockwitt]

Was reading the Kyiv Independent on Belarus. It's now Russia's largest trade partner overtaking Germany with Russia promising more.

Heard elsewhere Russia is getting some tanks and APCs to help replace stuff from Belarus.

Birds of a feather.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Putin continues to play Lukashenko for the weak fool that he is. Lukashenko has Putin's arm so far up his arse he can probably taste it. He must love being a vassal, since Belarus is ever more clearly seen as being welcomed back officially as part of Russia before long. Suggestions being made that the supply of Iskanders is an exchange for munitions from Belarus to his own forces, and probably still hoping to use Belarus as more cannon fodder. Any pre-emptive attack by Ukraine against Belarus would just inflame the situation for themselves further, it must be hard to sit on their hands while Russia freely uses Belarus territory for rocket and missile launches.

You misread the situation. Lukashenka's only aim, much like Boris, is to stay in power. The fact that he has managed to stay out of active involvement in the war to date is testament to just what a manipulative snake he is and having Putin's number down pat. He genuinely thought he might be Yeltsin's successor in a Russian-Belarusian confederal state in 1999 and has never really forgiven Putin for being "anointed".

[Hellraiser]

Was reading the Kyiv Independent on Belarus. It's now Russia's largest trade partner overtaking Germany with Russia promising more.

Heard elsewhere Russia is getting some tanks and APCs to help replace stuff from Belarus.

Birds of a feather.

Lukashenka basically buying off getting directly involved in Ukraine. There's been some video going around today and yesterday on Twitter and Telegram of 152mm munitions being taken out of storage in Belarus for shipment to Russia.

[yermum]

Was reading the Kyiv Independent on Belarus. It's now Russia's largest trade partner overtaking Germany with Russia promising more.

Heard elsewhere Russia is getting some tanks and APCs to help replace stuff from Belarus.

Birds of a feather.

Lukashenka basically buying off getting directly involved in Ukraine. There's been some video going around today and yesterday on Twitter and Telegram of 152mm munitions being taken out of storage in Belarus for shipment to Russia.

But all the tankie concern trolls have been wanking off about how Russia has unlimited 152 ammo on reddit. Why would they need to take some from belorus?

[fishfoodie]

The Russians sending Iskander missiles to Belarus, reminds me of Iraq sending its best fighter aircraft to Iran.

These are Russia's best, & most modern deployed tactical missiles; & they were specifically designed to nominally comply with the INF treaty, while everyone knew they can be modified in hours to fly far much further than the INF limits.

If I were in the Belarus military; I'd park these new missiles in a hanger, as far as possible from stuff they wanted to keep, & guard them with a couple of cardboard cutout soldiers ..... & maybe forward the GPS co-ords to Ukraine, so there isn't any collateral damage.

[Flockwitt]

Blimey, this war is now 4 months old. It seem like only yesterday when people were just sort of numbly taking in the fact Russian had invaded.

[TheFrog]

Blimey, this war is now 4 months old. It seem like only yesterday when people were just sort of numbly taking in the fact Russian had invaded.

I remain concerned that the West hasn't switched yet into full arsenal of democracy mode.

Still difficult to guess where Putin is going next. But he will keep on probing until he is hurt big time. As long as he doesn't feel the pain, he remains dangerous.

[tabascoboy]

A few days ago:



Now seems to have happened, another new General to get a hospital pass then

[Uncle fester]

The launch site for the strike on Svatove was 100km south so it definitely wasn't HIMARS.

Toshka more likely

Looks like the Ukrainians have Either got a stash (been using quite a few) or reactivated stocks.

They did have a very competent Rocket industry (and Jet engines too).

Maybe they were holding them back for emergency use in really critical situations, but because of the weapons now coming from other countries they don't need to do that. Looking forward to news getting better in the days ahead.

Also want to add my appriection for all those that post in this thread, with special mention to Hellraiser, who has been outstanding.

Agreed. Kinda miss Os posting in the thread though. He was good reading early in the conflict.

[Jockaline]

Toshka more likely

Looks like the Ukrainians have Either got a stash (been using quite a few) or reactivated stocks.

They did have a very competent Rocket industry (and Jet engines too).

Maybe they were holding them back for emergency use in really critical situations, but because of the weapons now coming from other countries they don't need to do that. Looking forward to news getting better in the days ahead.

Also want to add my appriection for all those that post in this thread, with special mention to Hellraiser, who has been outstanding.

Agreed. Kinda miss Os posting in the thread though. He was good reading early in the conflict.

Os was a great poster on this thread too, odd that he doesn't post anymore.

[tabascoboy]

"Unrolled" tweets

1/5 After theRussian missile strike on Kyiv this morning (a civilian building has been hit, injuring a little girl and killing her father), I have already seen three different Russian propaganda messages.

They may serve as a reminder of how the Russian propaganda works.

2/5 The messages are:

1. The building was empty, there was no one inside.
2. The Ukrainian air defence is to blame for shooting down a missile near the building.
3. It's all "fake", just like the "White helmets" stuff in Syria was fake.

There probably are (or will be) more.

3/5 The Russian propaganda machine doesn't care if those messages are mutually exclusive, easily disprovable or downright absurd.

The point is to flood you with multiple "alternate" versions of events. The more the better. They want to make you doubt: "It's not so clear".

4/5 That's exactly what Russians are doing every single time they commit war crimes. After the downing of MH17 in 2014 Russian officials and state media kept producing more and more versions of the event. It was the same with Syria. It was the same after Bucha Massacre.

5/5 They know some versions won't stick at all. They know they'll contradict themselves. They know they'll be caught lying.

But if they manage to make enough people think "Well, who knows what really happened and who's to blame" - they'll succeed. That's their goal.

[tabascoboy]

Good grief...this sounds like parody news but it's in many outlets

Desperate Putin ‘calls up obese 20st retired general, 67,’ to lead troops in Ukraine after ‘running out of commanders’
0:26, 26 Jun 2022 Updated: 1:47, 26 Jun 2022

VLADIMIR Putin has called a morbidly obese general out of retirement to lead his troops in Ukraine as he is running out of senior officers, reports claim. The Russian despot is now "scraping the barrel" and relying on 20st vodka-swilling General Pavel, 67, to revive his faltering invasion.

He is said to be in charge of Putin's special forces in eastern Ukraine after the unit's former commander was seriously injured in an artillery strike, a source told the Daily Star.

The hulking veteran reportedly served in Russia's bungled invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s and has over four decades' experience under his straining belt.

General Pavel first became a commander of elite troops 25 years ago, but had settled into high-calorie retirement.

He reportedly scoffs five meals a day and washes it down with at least a litre of vodka.

[petej]

Good grief...this sounds like parody news but it's in many outlets

Desperate Putin ‘calls up obese 20st retired general, 67,’ to lead troops in Ukraine after ‘running out of commanders’
0:26, 26 Jun 2022 Updated: 1:47, 26 Jun 2022

VLADIMIR Putin has called a morbidly obese general out of retirement to lead his troops in Ukraine as he is running out of senior officers, reports claim. The Russian despot is now "scraping the barrel" and relying on 20st vodka-swilling General Pavel, 67, to revive his faltering invasion.

He is said to be in charge of Putin's special forces in eastern Ukraine after the unit's former commander was seriously injured in an artillery strike, a source told the Daily Star.

The hulking veteran reportedly served in Russia's bungled invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s and has over four decades' experience under his straining belt.

General Pavel first became a commander of elite troops 25 years ago, but had settled into high-calorie retirement.

He reportedly scoffs five meals a day and washes it down with at least a litre of vodka.

I think this one might not be fired because he will have a heart attack or stroke first.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Some very, very, very juicy targets.

There are obviously plenty of sympathetic Belorussian citizens, & it just needs a couple to plant gps locators on these wagons ....

[Uncle fester]

Russia's defaulted.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

[inactionman]

Russia's defaulted.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

I'm struggling a bit with this - what benefit is there in disallowing Russia's repayment? By definition it's not funding anything, and it doesn't really change much about Russia's ability to borrow as pretty much all of that is sanctioned anyway.

It just seems to hurt bondholders for no real benefit - unless hurting bondholders is the reason for it?

[tabascoboy]

Another relatively long strike wipes out a Russian ammo depot in Luhansk region, at least 50km range. Suggested as Tochka-U misslie

[Openside]

Swedish Special Forces Operators show their stuff.

[Hellraiser]

Russia's defaulted.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

I'm struggling a bit with this - what benefit is there in disallowing Russia's repayment? By definition it's not funding anything, and it doesn't really change much about Russia's ability to borrow as pretty much all of that is sanctioned anyway.

It just seems to hurt bondholders for no real benefit - unless hurting bondholders is the reason for it?

Russian debt is reduced to junk status and it can't return in any meaningful sense to the bond market even if/when sanctions are lifted. No one will touch them. It's a fundamental principle of the bond market that bond holders cannot be forced to accept repayment in a currency other than that in which the bonds are denominated.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Russia's defaulted.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... dApp_Other

I'm struggling a bit with this - what benefit is there in disallowing Russia's repayment? By definition it's not funding anything, and it doesn't really change much about Russia's ability to borrow as pretty much all of that is sanctioned anyway.

It just seems to hurt bondholders for no real benefit - unless hurting bondholders is the reason for it?

Its part of a suite of actions. And if you threaten someone with sanctions and they invade a sovereign nation anyway then your red lines need to mean something. And this is about Russia not the bondholders.

What in practice this goes on to mean we don't yet know, can't yet know tbh. It's very likely raises the cost of capital to Russia in the short and medium term, and that does worry them else they wouldn't have been using what stockpiles of dollars they had to try and avoid this scenario. You'd think many lenders may now take action to seize overseas Russian assets to cover the debt, how widespread and what assets we don't know, but it's now a fairly common move when a nation doesn't stump up cash. Yes Russia could argue they'd have the cash but for other sanctions in place but it is what it is.

If one has to give one reason for all this it's essentially Russia has a choice now, to fund the invasion or to fund their own populace. Borrowing would have allowed them more room to do both. History will inform nations less able to borrow lose wars, but you could also contend many losing nations cared more about their own people than the Russians do.

[TheFrog]

Given the situation on the ground, i am starting to feel that we are at the point where NATO should mass aircraft and troops on its borders with Ukraine and Russia, and send an ultimatum to Putin to withdraw from Ukraine or face the full might of NATO military.

But I assume this would be very difficult to implement, having to cover a long border (including protecting non NATO countries like Finland), and having powerful enough forces to fight the Russian army in Ukraine at the same time would require a huge mobilization and be a logistic challenge. In addition I am not even sure we would have enough ammo to fight that war.

But where we are at, at the moment, with Ukraine bleeding its best troops in combat, concerns me and I worry that western equipment is too little to late to allow Ukraine to push the Russian back.

[dabooldawg]

Morbidly obese general? I think you mean sassy, fierce and curvy. #bopo

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]