Actually to an extent that's already happened. Russia has had to commit so many troops to taking the Donbas region by stripping out from other areas they are vulnerable. The problem is Ukraine doesn't have enough in reserve yet to be able to bring overwhelming force to any one location and start destroying the Russian army in the field. There are a couple of locations Russian units are at risk, north Kherson, Izyum and so forth. I see the Ukrainians have got a new unit assaulting the south west of Kherson. I think in the short term that's best they can do, probe away for weak points, up the ante in the attrition stakes for the Russians, and eventually force a local collapse.fishfoodie wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:09 pmIt might be, but it'd be playing the Russians game if they let themselves get drawn into the WW I type slog they want, where they can just reinforce the static battle lines & used the separatists as cannon fodder.Hellraiser wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:23 pmI think Kherson is definitely the priority. The Ukrainians have gone dark on the South but have little issue with admitting withdrawals in Donbas. I reckon the PzH 2000s and HIMARS are going straight to Kherson. There's been so many troop withdrawals from Melitopol and even Mariupol that a solid strike from the West and Zaporizhzhia could see the Russians break and rout provided the Ukrainians have enough heavy equipment to push through.Flockwitt wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:45 pm I wonder where Ukraine will have a go at first once they get the opportunity. I would suggest Kherson front. Difficult for Russia to move additional troops there and less chance of things to go badly wrong. A threat to Crimea will force Putin's hand in the east. The Russians definitely want to keep it.
Instead, I think they should do the exact opposite, & force the Russians to maneuver & defend all across that enormous front; & that will force Putin to do what he doesn't want to do .. commit Russian forces.
Eventually they'll force the Russians to move out of their positions down in the South, & that'll be the opportunity to strike in at Kherson.
Not seeing much in the mobilisation rumours above for South and Western military districts. Those are either ethnic Russians or areas that have taken major losses already. With nothing to arm them with turning a mobilization into quick cannon fodder will have internal consequences you'd have to imagine. Or perhaps produce a crisis with people refusing to go.
