Stop voting for fucking Tories

Where goats go to escape
_Os_
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dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:38 am OK some folk will not agree with him but this is a pretty realistic scenario we face after this 'budget'. Scary stuff!

I posted just about all of that in a long post on this thread a year ago:
_Os_ wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:51 pm Any target to return a budget surplus through cuts was abandoned by Osborne as long ago as 2016, but without any credible plan to achieve growth and eliminate the deficit that way. Much of the UK's debt is held by the Bank of England (BoE purchases gilts from banks in return for interest-bearing reserves, about a third of UK government debt now takes this form, this makes servicing the debt much cheaper as long as the Bank Rate is at the historically low 0.1%), but if the Bank Rate increases servicing that debt will rise too and further expand the deficit. Independent monetary institutions don't last long in a full on banana republic for reasons like this; if there's no GDP growth the UK government will end up having a more or less existential political stake in the Bank Rate. A good trick will be having tiered rates to pump the debt even higher (probably all sorts of downsides in that, but if you're shameless it doesn't matter and is a good enough quick fix).

Without a credible growth path all the economic unicorns hit the wall eventually, that's the usual way a nationalist/populist mess of the type the Tories are gets removed from power. Until then money machine goes bburrrrrrrr, and the Tories will be in power for this entire decade.
Murphy proposes tiered rates to pump the debt, which I predicted would be the move. But there are some real issues with this I think (I'm not sure, it's off the map), it could maybe risk a sterling crisis if it's not seen as credible by the market.

There were ways of not ending up in this mess, but the politics weren't and still aren't favourable for those softer landings (Tories are polling above 30% again). They should've been voted out and replaced with anyone, but weren't.
petej
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dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:03 am
_Os_ wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:55 am
dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:36 am

They know exactly what they are doing - they wrote all about it in 'Sovereign Individual' and 'Britannia Unchained' and I agree are now funded by their rich paymasters. They believe in an unregulated, market driven big business multinational driven economy with minimal gov intervention and the focus on individuals working hard according to what they are worth. They all accept that along the way there will be damage to the economy, society and individuals before we reach this Unicorn Nirvana and we will be at a competitive advantage in the world because we have got there first. It is cloud cuckoo land dreamt up by the super rich and privileged in the debating halls of Oxbridge and dinner parties with no base in the reality of the world the rest of us live in. This is just the start folks, it will get a lot worse than this including the sell off of the NHS, further attacks on Unions and individual rights ie ECHR, Employment rights, etc, investment zones set up to become tax avoidance and quasi slave labour zones, etc. They will have the pedal to the metal as they know they only have 2 years to implement all this and tie the UK Gov into as much of their bullshit as possible, it is a suicide squad for the UK economy!

PS Putin will love the UK economy collapsing as it will before Xmas, I wonder how much it has cost him?
This is where we go down a rabbit hole of what intelligence is, how much education matters and all the rest of it.

They're revolutionary zealots, they have one very simple ideology, and they will apply that narrow answer to every situation. They have no way of formulating novel answers outside of that simple ideology, nor can they ever understand anything complicated (which is most things). A lot of what they believe has been debunked, but they have revolutionary commitment so none of that makes any impression on them. Not convinced the majority of them are malicious, they just genuinely believe they have the answer and there will be sunlit uplands. It ends up being stupid.
Agree. Its a bit like the difference between complex and complicated problems. Building a space rocket is complicated but can be done with rules, systems, algorithms, etc within an organisational setting and command and control structures. However bringing up a child from birth is complex given the number of unknowns, variables, etc. We have bright but driven academic zealots in charge who have limited real world experience and who see running the country as a complicated problem they don't have the experience, skills and expertise to see it and manage it as a complex problem. Meanwhile pound and markets are tanking.
Powerful intellects but on rails with only one destination with no ability to reroute or stop even if the bridge ahead has collapsed.
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I wonder if Truss even has the votes for this. Would be very funny if not - polling will be key.
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fishfoodie
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I like neeps wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:53 am I wonder if Truss even has the votes for this. Would be very funny if not - polling will be key.
She's just delivering on the promises she made to the ERG nutters, to get herself on the ballot for the Leadership !

As you say, what'll be interesting is if the Red Wall MPs see thru this steaming pile of shit, & grasp what it means for their prospects; because if you were out to buy an election, this is a singularly fucking idiotic way to do so, because while it might please the Newspaper Barons, it won't matter when the people who read their rags, can't even afford their daily red top anymore.
Biffer
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tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:43 am
Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:26 am
dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:38 am OK some folk will not agree with him but this is a pretty realistic scenario we face after this 'budget'. Scary stuff!

That's some fucking scary reading.
No doubt the ensuing meltdown is already set to be blamed on:

Global factors
The war in Ukraine
The EU
Immigration
Lazy and feckless Britons
Jeremy Corbyn
They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Tichtheid
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This is a "breath of fresh air", but it "doesn't go far enough" according to a couple of headlines on the Telegraph site.
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Tichtheid
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Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:04 pm
tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:43 am
Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:26 am

That's some fucking scary reading.
No doubt the ensuing meltdown is already set to be blamed on:

Global factors
The war in Ukraine
The EU
Immigration
Lazy and feckless Britons
Jeremy Corbyn
They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally
I think Trans people and the Woke generally will be behind the economic mess that's coming around the corner - they're the ones who made everyone vote for the Tories and Brexit
yermum
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And there I was thinking that Bojo would be the nadir of governance in the UK...

This is pure fantasy economics. This country is fucked.

If we get to the next election without blood in the streets we will have done well.
petej
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Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:04 pm
tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:43 am
Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:26 am

That's some fucking scary reading.
No doubt the ensuing meltdown is already set to be blamed on:

Global factors
The war in Ukraine
The EU
Immigration
Lazy and feckless Britons
Jeremy Corbyn
They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally
This is a massive hollowing out of middle of the UK.
Biffer
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petej wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:37 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:04 pm
tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:43 am

No doubt the ensuing meltdown is already set to be blamed on:

Global factors
The war in Ukraine
The EU
Immigration
Lazy and feckless Britons
Jeremy Corbyn
They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally
This is a massive hollowing out of middle of the UK.
Which is where the economic illiteracy comes in. Trickle down doesn't work, but reducing tax burden on lower middle class and working class does - because these are the people who will actually spend extra money in the economy and drive some of the growth desired. Of course you then need sensible ways to get business to invest (to be fair there are one or two things in the statement which are good in that respect) but just wishing hard that business will put tax cuts back into UK businesses, rather than investing them elsewhere, where they'll then get additional tax relief and be able to double their money, is fucking mental.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
dpedin
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petej wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:37 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:04 pm
tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:43 am

No doubt the ensuing meltdown is already set to be blamed on:

Global factors
The war in Ukraine
The EU
Immigration
Lazy and feckless Britons
Jeremy Corbyn
They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally
This is a massive hollowing out of middle of the UK.
Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.
Biffer
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dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:45 pm
petej wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:37 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:04 pm

They're also lining up

Unions
The Scots
The BBC
The NHS
The poor generally
This is a massive hollowing out of middle of the UK.
Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.
Think I need to whip most of my pension fund into European and US funds
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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tabascoboy
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dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:45 pm Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.
Was looking for one called "Total Shitcart" which should be odds-on
Biffer
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Kwarteng also trailed all the other stuff they'll be doing as well. Lowering food standards, removing worker's rights, going after the unions hard, removing environmental protections, lowering safety standards, these are all on the horizon - this is the 'red tape' they talk about, not some arcane paperwork (because they've already increased that on anyone who imports or exports)
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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fishfoodie
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Biffer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:24 pm Kwarteng also trailed all the other stuff they'll be doing as well. Lowering food standards, removing worker's rights, going after the unions hard, removing environmental protections, lowering safety standards, these are all on the horizon - this is the 'red tape' they talk about, not some arcane paperwork (because they've already increased that on anyone who imports or exports)
No need to worry about exports, the EU will soon be pulling the plug on the agreement, & that should fulfill Minfords goal of, running down UK farming, & manufacturing.
dpedin
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tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:13 pm
dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:45 pm Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.
Was looking for one called "Total Shitcart" which should be odds-on
Hollie wins me a few bob in the 3.00pm! Trots in 4th on 66-1 outsider for my ew bet. Wonder if Kwarteng had a few bob on her?
dpedin
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dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:35 pm
tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:13 pm
dpedin wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:45 pm Going to bet my pension lump sum on the racing today - Haydock and Newmarket on tv. This will be a far better bet than leaving it in the bank I reckon and watch inflation and devalued pound eat away at it at a great rate of knots. Quite fancy Hollie's horse in the 3.35 at Newmarket.
Was looking for one called "Total Shitcart" which should be odds-on
Hollie wins me a few bob in the 3.00pm! Trots in 4th on 66-1 outsider for my ew bet. Wonder if Kwarteng had a few bob on her?
Then makes an arse of it in the big race! Still up
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Insane_Homer
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tabascoboy
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Pffft, I'm sure that B*m*o*a* and a couple others could explain how those so-called experts and the rest of us are completely wrong and this is in fact a genius move of greatness unparalleled by our new leaders - and apparent economic turmoil and social chaos is all just a part of the plan...
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Not going well for Kami-Kwasi.
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Insane_Homer
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still falling, 1.08
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
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tabascoboy wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:26 pm
To be fair this was needed because when it fails (a) it shows there's no workable brexit as this is the low tax high growth baloney the asset strippers wanted = rejoin and (b) collapse the housing market when interest rates make mortgages unaffordable and (c) the Tories are toast. An absolutely shocking record they've had.
sefton
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I’m just depressed, we’re already running a food bank in our Trust and this is only going to get worse with this mini budget.
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fishfoodie
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Insane_Homer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:44 pm still falling, 1.08
Great Idea to have the most massive budget in the last decade, on a Friday !

Now the Markets can calm down over the weekend, & take stock; & then come in fresh on Monday, & really give Sterling a good fucking shoeing :roll: :roll: :roll:

Today brought back memories of Norman Lamont, really looking like he was in control, & had the pulse of the Money Markets.
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Tichtheid
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So, I know it's only been a couple of weeks, and there was the death of the longest serving monarch we've ever had to contend with, but...

Does the panel think that Boris Johnson is already only the second worst PM we've ever had?
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fishfoodie
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Tichtheid wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:15 pm So, I know it's only been a couple of weeks, and there was the death of the longest serving monarch we've ever had to contend with, but...

Does the panel think that Boris Johnson is already only the second worst PM we've ever had?
Kudos to him on making sure that he wouldn't be the shortest ever serving PM, & putting into office someone who'd be lucky to get two years in office :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

In a decades time people will be thinking fondly of when they just had to worry about the PM fucking his PA, & getting shitfaced every Friday during a global pandemic
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Wyndham Upalot
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In spite of Brexit (which I hated), I thought the UK was strong and intelligent enough to choose a fiscal policy route of some sorts that would even out things ... this government, in line with the last 10 yrs of corrupt Tory policy, has reinforced my belief that the UK is a country on the absolute decline - to the point of a 'have been' nation. I've been lucky to travel the world, and I truly love the UK, but fuck that, as a staunch Welshman, I'm relocating abroad. Our country, is quite honestly screwed under these cunts.
_Os_
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I like neeps wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:52 pm To be fair this was needed because when it fails (a) it shows there's no workable brexit as this is the low tax high growth baloney the asset strippers wanted = rejoin and (b) collapse the housing market when interest rates make mortgages unaffordable and (c) the Tories are toast. An absolutely shocking record they've had.
a. There's no shift in the politics though. Brexit is clearly the core problem but the media and the political parties refuse to mention it. It forms no part of the Labour platform, because they want to minimise the attack surface the Tories and the media have. There's going to have to be some type of Brexit u-turn at some point, but the politics is pointing towards a lot more damage before then. Brexit's supporters are deep into the sunk costs fallacy, they now know it's a failure but refuse to change course. This is the usual for nationalist/populist disasters the damage keeps rolling on long after it should've ended.

b. The core issue is not enough housing supply. Those who get burned will be those without much equity/large mortgage, which means those who have just bought, which means people under 40 who for the most part contributed to none of this mess. Then when the market recovers there's still not enough supply, so the market remains dysfunctional.

You've missed that SMEs are highly leveraged, and most of this debt is connected to the BoE base rate. They have to leverage mainly because of costs, but also because if everyone else does and they don't then they're at a competitive disadvantage and have no market share. This is where Minford and the other morons get it wrong, they think if interest rates go to 7% and they kill the zombie companies (those which can only service but not repay their debt) that means all the zombies are gone (rather than new zombies being created at the new interest rate level), but what they really get wrong is how responsive the economy is. They think if agri and manufacturing and random SMEs are nuked, then all those people immediately reskill/retool and start all over again in some other sector becoming even more productive than they were before, but that's not even close to what happens.

c. Most polls still have them above 30%, and most of the UK media is lukewarm supportive of them. Labour wouldn't even be in double digits if they were this shithouse.
GogLais
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Can Rishi and his supporters vote for this?
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C69
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Wyndham Upalot wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:00 am In spite of Brexit (which I hated), I thought the UK was strong and intelligent enough to choose a fiscal policy route of some sorts that would even out things ... this government, in line with the last 10 yrs of corrupt Tory policy, has reinforced my belief that the UK is a country on the absolute decline - to the point of a 'have been' nation. I've been lucky to travel the world, and I truly love the UK, but fuck that, as a staunch Welshman, I'm relocating abroad. Our country, is quite honestly screwed under these cunts.
Thank fuck I have paid off my mortgage and will retire in. Afew years.
My brawd has just moved to Dubai and just had enough of the UK. He says you have to be ou tof the UK to realise ho wdire the decline is.
petej
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C69 wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:07 am
Wyndham Upalot wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:00 am In spite of Brexit (which I hated), I thought the UK was strong and intelligent enough to choose a fiscal policy route of some sorts that would even out things ... this government, in line with the last 10 yrs of corrupt Tory policy, has reinforced my belief that the UK is a country on the absolute decline - to the point of a 'have been' nation. I've been lucky to travel the world, and I truly love the UK, but fuck that, as a staunch Welshman, I'm relocating abroad. Our country, is quite honestly screwed under these cunts.
Thank fuck I have paid off my mortgage and will retire in. Afew years.
My brawd has just moved to Dubai and just had enough of the UK. He says you have to be ou tof the UK to realise ho wdire the decline is.
I used to wonder why Italians voted for Berlusconi. The dysfunction is very obvious from outside the UK.
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_Os_ wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:23 am
I like neeps wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:52 pm To be fair this was needed because when it fails (a) it shows there's no workable brexit as this is the low tax high growth baloney the asset strippers wanted = rejoin and (b) collapse the housing market when interest rates make mortgages unaffordable and (c) the Tories are toast. An absolutely shocking record they've had.
a. There's no shift in the politics though. Brexit is clearly the core problem but the media and the political parties refuse to mention it. It forms no part of the Labour platform, because they want to minimise the attack surface the Tories and the media have. There's going to have to be some type of Brexit u-turn at some point, but the politics is pointing towards a lot more damage before then. Brexit's supporters are deep into the sunk costs fallacy, they now know it's a failure but refuse to change course. This is the usual for nationalist/populist disasters the damage keeps rolling on long after it should've ended.

b. The core issue is not enough housing supply. Those who get burned will be those without much equity/large mortgage, which means those who have just bought, which means people under 40 who for the most part contributed to none of this mess. Then when the market recovers there's still not enough supply, so the market remains dysfunctional.

You've missed that SMEs are highly leveraged, and most of this debt is connected to the BoE base rate. They have to leverage mainly because of costs, but also because if everyone else does and they don't then they're at a competitive disadvantage and have no market share. This is where Minford and the other morons get it wrong, they think if interest rates go to 7% and they kill the zombie companies (those which can only service but not repay their debt) that means all the zombies are gone (rather than new zombies being created at the new interest rate level), but what they really get wrong is how responsive the economy is. They think if agri and manufacturing and random SMEs are nuked, then all those people immediately reskill/retool and start all over again in some other sector becoming even more productive than they were before, but that's not even close to what happens.

c. Most polls still have them above 30%, and most of the UK media is lukewarm supportive of them. Labour wouldn't even be in double digits if they were this shithouse.
A) Not in the next two years. But when this budget has worked it's magic on interest rates as you note in point (b) it's the only way of growing the economy by reducing all the red tape and increasing global confidence in the UK.

B) the market won't be fixed, no. And there's going to be huge pain for first time buyers with massive mortgages and over levered BTLs. However, the Tories have been dreadful in government but kept in because they have hugely increased wealth through house prices. When that goes and people are made materially poorer their election chances are gone for a long, long time.

Agree about the SMEs.

C) pain hasn't started yet. When people come to remortgage in this interest rates era or try to go on holiday with a weak pound. And generally continue to experience the decline in public services and then are told there's going to be cuts for tax rises that they didn't even notice considering the rising inflation. That is when the 30% starts to reliably fall.
_Os_
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I like neeps wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:57 am A) Not in the next two years. But when this budget has worked it's magic on interest rates as you note in point (b) it's the only way of growing the economy by reducing all the red tape and increasing global confidence in the UK.

B) the market won't be fixed, no. And there's going to be huge pain for first time buyers with massive mortgages and over levered BTLs. However, the Tories have been dreadful in government but kept in because they have hugely increased wealth through house prices. When that goes and people are made materially poorer their election chances are gone for a long, long time.

Agree about the SMEs.

C) pain hasn't started yet. When people come to remortgage in this interest rates era or try to go on holiday with a weak pound. And generally continue to experience the decline in public services and then are told there's going to be cuts for tax rises that they didn't even notice considering the rising inflation. That is when the 30% starts to reliably fall.
You're overpricing something more rational returning, what if a lot of people in the UK are just beyond reason? the Tories will probably lose in 2024 (the latest a GE can be held is January 2025), but it's not impossible the Tories hang on. A country can become Argentina or worse, people can become trapped in the idea of nationalism/populism.

The Tories have built a large constituency, which they always shovel patronage at. Anyone who has paid off their mortgage (older people) is totally insulated from what happens in the housing market. Everyone has been protected from energy prices not by taxing energy companies, but instead through debt and higher general taxation later (paid for by younger people). Anyone with large savings (older people) will benefit from a higher interest rate. If this group is about 30%-35% of the UK, as their polling suggests, then there's not too many more the Tories need to con on election day for a majority.

Agree that if the Tories maintain this course then we haven't seen anything yet. The BoE BR is a bit misleading in that it gives no sense of how affordable it is, UK wages are worth much less than they were in the past. 5% BR would create something worse than the 2008 GFC and be about as bad as anything in the last 50 years. The average mortgage is £140k, but that's an average, for people under 40 it's going to be closer to £200k. (working only from memory) In 2020 the average UK household of 2.4 people had £30k of outgoings after income tax with almost nothing being saved, of that £10k-£15k went on keeping a roof over their head (mortgage or rent/council tax/utilities), Once the the UK is at a 5% BR, for someone with a £200k mortgage the cost of maintaining that roof over their head goes up to about £20k-£25k, they then have £5k-£10k to spend on food and transport, with not much room for anything else. It'll nuke the entire UK economy. There will be demands for the UK government to secure private mortgages and pump the national debt higher.

This time next year will be interesting.
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_Os_ wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:28 pm
I like neeps wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:57 am A) Not in the next two years. But when this budget has worked it's magic on interest rates as you note in point (b) it's the only way of growing the economy by reducing all the red tape and increasing global confidence in the UK.

B) the market won't be fixed, no. And there's going to be huge pain for first time buyers with massive mortgages and over levered BTLs. However, the Tories have been dreadful in government but kept in because they have hugely increased wealth through house prices. When that goes and people are made materially poorer their election chances are gone for a long, long time.

Agree about the SMEs.

C) pain hasn't started yet. When people come to remortgage in this interest rates era or try to go on holiday with a weak pound. And generally continue to experience the decline in public services and then are told there's going to be cuts for tax rises that they didn't even notice considering the rising inflation. That is when the 30% starts to reliably fall.
You're overpricing something more rational returning, what if a lot of people in the UK are just beyond reason? the Tories will probably lose in 2024 (the latest a GE can be held is January 2025), but it's not impossible the Tories hang on. A country can become Argentina or worse, people can become trapped in the idea of nationalism/populism.

The Tories have built a large constituency, which they always shovel patronage at. Anyone who has paid off their mortgage (older people) is totally insulated from what happens in the housing market. Everyone has been protected from energy prices not by taxing energy companies, but instead through debt and higher general taxation later (paid for by younger people). Anyone with large savings (older people) will benefit from a higher interest rate. If this group is about 30%-35% of the UK, as their polling suggests, then there's not too many more the Tories need to con on election day for a majority.

Agree that if the Tories maintain this course then we haven't seen anything yet. The BoE BR is a bit misleading in that it gives no sense of how affordable it is, UK wages are worth much less than they were in the past. 5% BR would create something worse than the 2008 GFC and be about as bad as anything in the last 50 years. The average mortgage is £140k, but that's an average, for people under 40 it's going to be closer to £200k. (working only from memory) In 2020 the average UK household of 2.4 people had £30k of outgoings after income tax with almost nothing being saved, of that £10k-£15k went on keeping a roof over their head (mortgage or rent/council tax/utilities), Once the the UK is at a 5% BR, for someone with a £200k mortgage the cost of maintaining that roof over their head goes up to about £20k-£25k, they then have £5k-£10k to spend on food and transport, with not much room for anything else. It'll nuke the entire UK economy. There will be demands for the UK government to secure private mortgages and pump the national debt higher.

This time next year will be interesting.
Because voting for the conservatives is very rational if you own assets. As they have reliably increased those assets values with every policy. Very few people have argued that voting Tories if you own a house is extremely sensible because every year you become richer. Brexit is irrational if you understand economics but if you don't really and read The Sun, Mail, Telegraph or Times then it's rational because they blamed the EU for everything.

People who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings are the minority of the population. And then how many have paid off their mortgage and used their savings to buy a BTL with recurring revenue? That's now gone. How many of them are watching their bank of mum and dad nest egg to their kids go bye bye? Surely that doesn't make them happy? How many are nimbys to retain their houses value for when they downsize or want to help their children with inheritance? That now is going. How many rely on the NHS more and more as they get old? Because that's in a dreadful state.

I agree that people are going to lose all spending power when their mortgages become unaffordable and the economy will fall in on itself. But that's why I said it's the end of the Tories. When their policies fail because international investors don't like them or brexit (check) and the interest rates rising collapses their voters personal income and the income (2-5 years time) they're done. There's no nationalism to cling on to.

Of course they've played a hospital pass to the next Labour government so the rampant press baiting of Labour in power could bring them back but people won't forget.
petej
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Neeps is overstating rationality, underestimating our electoral system and dismissing the fact that a large proportion of the population in England particularly are incredibly deferential to our elites and the social order.
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Tichtheid
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I like neeps wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:37 pm Because voting for the conservatives is very rational if you own assets. As they have reliably increased those assets values with every policy. Very few people have argued that voting Tories if you own a house is extremely sensible because every year you become richer. Brexit is irrational if you understand economics but if you don't really and read The Sun, Mail, Telegraph or Times then it's rational because they blamed the EU for everything.

People who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings are the minority of the population. And then how many have paid off their mortgage and used their savings to buy a BTL with recurring revenue? That's now gone. How many of them are watching their bank of mum and dad nest egg to their kids go bye bye? Surely that doesn't make them happy? How many are nimbys to retain their houses value for when they downsize or want to help their children with inheritance? That now is going. How many rely on the NHS more and more as they get old? Because that's in a dreadful state.

I agree that people are going to lose all spending power when their mortgages become unaffordable and the economy will fall in on itself. But that's why I said it's the end of the Tories. When their policies fail because international investors don't like them or brexit (check) and the interest rates rising collapses their voters personal income and the income (2-5 years time) they're done. There's no nationalism to cling on to.

Of course they've played a hospital pass to the next Labour government so the rampant press baiting of Labour in power could bring them back but people won't forget.
Out of homeowners "people who have paid off their mortgage and people with large savings" are the majority, as in more people own their residence outright than people paying a mortgage for the house they "own". They bought decades ago when house prices were much lower and an average salary covered more of the cost, and have been paying in for decades. Just that alone makes them immune to the higher interest rates the Tories are going to bring about. It's such an advantage they basically stand to lose not much, other than the psychological hit of falling house prices maybe (but it's illusionary wealth, because when a house is sold it's usually exchanged for another house, so if house prices broadly fall they lose not much), but there's still a lack of supply so maybe house prices don't fall much.

There's reports that even more taxes are going to be cut. Fuck knows where the interest rate is heading, in all the reporting I've read there's zero comprehension that numbers like 5% or 7% may sound low by historic standards, but they're as unaffordable as much higher numbers in the past were. there's zero comprehension what house price inflation and a decade and a half of wage stagnation has done.

It's also being reported in the Times that Tory connected hedge funders short the pound and made a killing, same thing happened when parliament was prorogued and on the Brexit referendum. There was also this at the end of that Times article, if you want a read on how rational people people can be:
"However, even those who like what Truss has done so far are concerned that it needs to be explained better to the public. There is some evidence that the public will give Truss the benefit of the doubt for now. In a focus group with voters from the marginal Midlands seat of West Bromwich East conducted by Luke Tryl, a former Tory political adviser, on Friday evening, many questioned the effectiveness and fairness of the budget measures. But they also said it was “too soon” to judge Truss. Several questioned whether Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, was “strong enough” to be prime minister. Five of the participants had voted Tory in 2019, when Nicola Turner beat her Labour rival by 1,593 votes; three of them had backed Labour. In a vote at the end of the focus group, they divided six for Truss and two for Starmer.".
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Know your place you fucking plebs !
Conservative MPs have rounded on the government after a Treasury minister described criticism of plans to give high earners a tax cut during a cost of living crisis as the “politics of envy”.

Furious fellow Tory MPs hit out at the comment by Chris Philp, the chief secretary to the Treasury, just hours after the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced he was scrapping the highest rate of tax, paid by those earning more than £150,000 a year.

...

Defending the help for high earners, Mr Philp said the government was offering tax cuts to everyone.

"We’re going to do what’s right for the whole country. That means reducing taxes for everybody – low earners but also high earners,” he said.

"We’re going to do what’s right, we’re going to get growth delivered. And we’re not going to sort of worry about the politics of envy, or the optics of it.”

One former cabinet minister, who supported Liz Truss during her leadership campaign, described Mr Philp’s comment as “not sensible”.

Another former minister said his remarks were a “crisis” for the government and that the chief secretary to the Treasury was “one of the less brilliant appointments – and the bar is set low already”.

One of those who criticised the plan was Conservative former cabinet minister Julian Smith, who said: “This huge tax cut for the very rich at a time of national crisis and real fear and anxiety amongst low-income workers and citizens is wrong.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 74482.html
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