https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65496536

The rivers of shit are a real boon for the Greens.Hal Jordan wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 3:28 pmLib Dems and, latterly, the Greens always do well in local elections if the Tories are suffering, but that doesn't translate into GE seats.GogLais wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 3:04 pmI’m guessing that’ll happen. Contrarily will it be likelier if Labour aren’t seen as a sure bet for an overall majority? I feel a bit sorry for Starmer with all this stuff about Labour not being on course for an overall majority. All the talk after 2019 was it would take them a couple of GE’s to get back into touching distance. Notwithstanding the Tories’ cockups.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 2:53 pm Continued list of woes for the Tories with more losses although they did gain Slough - which seems to have been very much contested on local issues after some serious Labour mismanagement. However the Tories have all the same managed very slightly better than in 2013 so no certainty the results would be reflected in a GE defeat since there is no longer UKIP to take votes on the right to the extent of 2015.
Not a time yet for any complacency by the looks of it, and I can see some sort of informal pact in key seats being needed for a new government.
It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.Torquemada 1420 wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 4:44 pm ****s turning on themselves
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65496536
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Lib Dems are only 'strong' in the south of England (and in Scottish Islands, but that's not many seats) and particularly the South West. They're going to have to do a lot more damage to the Tories than is likely and Labour will have to underperform on their current polling/these local elections, for Labour to need them. Journalists/media pundits also aren't factoring in the possibility Labour could return to some degree in Scotland, if so that obviously means they need less from England. These results are showing Labour strengthening in the north and the Tories weakening in the south, which is Labour majority territory.tc27 wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 4:28 pm In a sense I wonder if a Labour/LD coalition or confidence agreement could be the best outcome - I am pretty much convinced we need electoral reform to stop another FPTP elected government headed by a leader who thinks they are a President.
I hope the LDs just insist of Electoral Reform as a condition of any agreement - no referendum or watered down proposal like in 2011.
It's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:00 pm It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.
You're welcomeInsane_Homer wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 6:28 pm I'd personally like to thank all the people out there who read this thread and heeded the OP title and didn't vote for the cunts. good job![]()
Just one more, overdue, battering to come, keep up the good work.
An underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals_Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:42 pmIt's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:00 pm It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.
But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.
At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.
Do you've any read as to what's driven the dissatisfaction in your area ?Paddington Bear wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:13 pmAn underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals_Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:42 pmIt's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:00 pm It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.
But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.
At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.
Brexit was the starting point for a lot of people, but what’s ratcheting it up is the general sense of shambles IMO. And yes you can read too much into the locals (my district council is Lib Dem, has been for yonks and yet with a Tory MP the whole time) but the direction of travel is pretty clearfishfoodie wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:21 pmDo you've any read as to what's driven the dissatisfaction in your area ?Paddington Bear wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:13 pmAn underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals_Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:42 pm
It's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.
But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.
At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.
It's always risky using locals as indicators of anything much, but this time it really does seem no Tory is safe.
Yes, and it works the other way too. Which is why I included the Bath and North East Somerset result in the list the Tories should worry about.Paddington Bear wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:13 pmAn underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals_Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:42 pmIt's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:00 pm It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.
But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.
At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.
Indeed such a strange conflation. Very poor political science indeed._Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:45 pmYes, and it works the other way too. Which is why I included the Bath and North East Somerset result in the list the Tories should worry about.Paddington Bear wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:13 pmAn underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals_Os_ wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:42 pm
It's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.
But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.
At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.
Bath is now likely a safe Lib Dem seat (a rare thing), so that strong Lib Dem branch will be able to dispatch activists to neighbouring constituencies. Bath and North East Somerset council has two Westminster seats, Bath (Lib Dem, Hobhouse) and North East Somerset (Con, Rees-Mogg). Rees-Mogg has a 10K+ majority but if the non-Tory vote wasn't split over Labour/Lib Dems/Greens, then that majority starts getting very small. Because it's Rees-Mogg activists will definitely want to try there even if there's a small chance. A better place to go would be Cheltenham where the Tory majority is under 1000, a proper marginal. Oxford West and Abingdon (Lib Dem, Moran) is also likely a safe Lib Dem seat for the next GE, so if Johnson tries to jump into the safe Tory seat of Henley next door he's going to be find himself more pressured than he thought (for the same reason Rees-Mogg will). Stratford-on-Avon (Con, Nadhim Zahawi) is in the middle of all this and has flipped from a Tory council to a Lib Dem council, and although it's a massive 20k majority for Zahawi, the guy is carrying a lot of negatives (just like Rees-Mogg and Johnson).
Leaning into the Tories is going to be good for the Lib Dems in the next GE. Even some safe Tory seats could find themselves fighting with everything they've got to hang on. The problem for the Lib Dems is they probably don't keep the new voters long term, but that's a nice problem to have I guess.
I watched Channel 4 News and Sky News this evening. All the journalists were saying this indicates a hung parliament, then they put their numbers up, and they've taken the percentage of the vote this local election and mapped it onto all 650 Westminster seats. But the Lib Dems are polling at 10%-ish UK wide and not 18%, and obviously independents aren't going to be getting 20%+. It seems like the media have forgotten this is only most of England outside London. Wales/Scotland/London are going to be adding a lot to Labour and very little to the Tories. This result indicates a Labour majority more than any other outcome imo.
Same here. I actually am surprised just how many hard line right pockets there are here.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 5:00 pmIt's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.Torquemada 1420 wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 4:44 pm ****s turning on themselves
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65496536
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My town wards have kicked out at least a couple more Tories but sadly the "blue wall" of the rural villages is keeping them in control of the borough as a whole![]()
Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.
So this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:06 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552
Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.
Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.
‘Team Boris has gone into overdrive’: Rishi Sunak’s ‘astonishing’ losses are reopening Tory splits
Allies of Boris Johnson are stirring again. While the man himself is remaining silent, he is widely believed to have authorised friends to brief the media on his behalf, making sure his name remains in the headlines, even as he stops short of issuing a direct challenge to his successor.
“Team Boris has gone into overdrive again,” one MP remarked. “Boris has always said he would only come back as leader if 50 per cent of MPs supported him – but I am hoping we don’t have musical chairs. We don’t need him now, we need stability, it’s steadying the ship time.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/team- ... 46?ITO=msn
Should be entertaining if nothing else.tabascoboy wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 8:17 am Yep let's bring back a serial liar with absolutely no sense of personal responsibility - that'll work...
‘Team Boris has gone into overdrive’: Rishi Sunak’s ‘astonishing’ losses are reopening Tory splits
Allies of Boris Johnson are stirring again. While the man himself is remaining silent, he is widely believed to have authorised friends to brief the media on his behalf, making sure his name remains in the headlines, even as he stops short of issuing a direct challenge to his successor.
“Team Boris has gone into overdrive again,” one MP remarked. “Boris has always said he would only come back as leader if 50 per cent of MPs supported him – but I am hoping we don’t have musical chairs. We don’t need him now, we need stability, it’s steadying the ship time.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/team- ... 46?ITO=msn
We are signed upto the Stockholm convention. There is quite a bit in the pipeline relating to persistent organic pollutants and PFAs (for example teflon, viton) which I suspect this relates to so alignment makes sense. Plus HSE is lacks resources. The ECHA website is still the one i go to for hazardous materials info.SaintK wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:40 amSo this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:06 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552
Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.
Could be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.yermum wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:15 pm BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061
Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….
The Wirral is not odd at all, they're a load of ex labour councillors who got kicked out by Sir Keir. Expect to see a lot of green votes in metropolitan areas.GogLais wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 9:21 amCould be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.yermum wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:15 pm BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061
Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….
GogLais wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 9:21 amCould be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.yermum wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:15 pm BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061
Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….
It would take a huge shift for Caroline Lucas to lose her Westminster seat, though, she had a majority of nearly twenty thousand at the last election - 57% of the vote, the Labour candidate came in second with nearly 23%.Labour won 38 seats, the Green party won 7 seats, the Conservatives won 6 seats, Brighton & Hove Independents won 2 seats and an independent candidate won 1 seat.
That was my point really, Bebington and Prenton are pretty normal places, to use a vague description. Not that I’m suggesting that Green voters are odd. What does seem odd that the likes of Caldy and Heswall have Labour MPs.I like neeps wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 9:32 amThe Wirral is not odd at all, they're a load of ex labour councillors who got kicked out by Sir Keir. Expect to see a lot of green votes in metropolitan areas.GogLais wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 9:21 amCould be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.yermum wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:15 pm BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061
Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….
petej wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 9:17 amWe are signed upto the Stockholm convention. There is quite a bit in the pipeline relating to persistent organic pollutants and PFAs (for example teflon, viton) which I suspect this relates to so alignment makes sense. Plus HSE is lacks resources. The ECHA website is still the one i go to for hazardous materials info.SaintK wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:40 amSo this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:06 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552
Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.
It's friggin' bizarre. I can't figure out which group lobbied for this. The Confederation Of Animal Abusers? Is that a thing?SaintK wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:40 amSo this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:06 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552
Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.
Gotta do something with those Tory donors’ hounds.Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 10:24 amIt's friggin' bizarre. I can't figure out which group lobbied for this. The Confederation Of Animal Abusers? Is that a thing?SaintK wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:40 amSo this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!Torquemada 1420 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 7:06 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552
Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.
If this is actually managed by rather than for Young Conservatives then it suggest that they are strongly in accord with the current mindset of CCHQ_Os_ wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 12:21 pm The Telegraph letters section gives an idea of the Tory direction of travel. It's not going to be fun being a younger person in that party, telling these people for many more years to come things like: "Thatcherism has been done, it cannot be redone", "Brexit needs to be looked at again", "the electoral sweet spot for the Tories is the place where the Lib Dems and Tories meet", "'woke' is a meaningless word that is simply a container for everything you dislike", "building new things is important, a damp barren field in southern England does not require x1000 the protection the Amazon or Congo jungle receives".
Their latest thing is the dodgy sounding "National Conservatism". A Republican party style loony response to losing power looks entirely possible.
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I get the impression that anybody in the Young Conservatives these days is either alt-right or similarly looney tunes on social issues.tabascoboy wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 12:34 pmIf this is actually managed by rather than for Young Conservatives then it suggest that they are strongly in accord with the current mindset of CCHQ_Os_ wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 12:21 pm The Telegraph letters section gives an idea of the Tory direction of travel. It's not going to be fun being a younger person in that party, telling these people for many more years to come things like: "Thatcherism has been done, it cannot be redone", "Brexit needs to be looked at again", "the electoral sweet spot for the Tories is the place where the Lib Dems and Tories meet", "'woke' is a meaningless word that is simply a container for everything you dislike", "building new things is important, a damp barren field in southern England does not require x1000 the protection the Amazon or Congo jungle receives".
Their latest thing is the dodgy sounding "National Conservatism". A Republican party style loony response to losing power looks entirely possible.
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https://twitter.com/Young_Tories
I was saying to Ms GL yesterday that this might make some of the Red Wallers a bit likelier to return to Labour. What fun we have.Biffer wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:17 pm Let’s be honest, there’s a part of the Tory party that thinks they’re being woke because they elected a brown leader.
Tbh Mr Starmer is a quintessentially nice white middle class Sir with a background in Law and Order.GogLais wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:37 pmI was saying to Ms GL yesterday that this might make some of the Red Wallers a bit likelier to return to Labour. What fun we have.Biffer wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:17 pm Let’s be honest, there’s a part of the Tory party that thinks they’re being woke because they elected a brown leader.
Job done.C69 wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:58 pmTbh Mr Starmer is a quintessentially nice white middle class Sir with a background in Law and Order.GogLais wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:37 pmI was saying to Ms GL yesterday that this might make some of the Red Wallers a bit likelier to return to Labour. What fun we have.Biffer wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:17 pm Let’s be honest, there’s a part of the Tory party that thinks they’re being woke because they elected a brown leader.
This is a key reason why getting the Tories out is so important regardless of any understandable reservations about Starmer. There is a process/pathway to be followed which involves investigating brexit impact and only then can policy be changed.