What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Don't know how effective these could be, they don't look exactly stealthy, but good for psyops and perhaps one of these could take out a ship, like the Moskva last year...might just deter the missile cruisers they like to use in the Black Sea

It doesn't need to be stealthy; Look at the height of the thing !

In the smallest of chop, it'd be impossible to detect it against the wave tops, & if you can't pick it out, you can't see that it is traveling at say 30kts, & detect it that way.

This is why I was expecting the Orcs to deploy booms, & torpedo nets, just basic physical defenses to protect the bridge; because if the drug cartels can get home made submarines thru the US defenses, then the Ukrainians can sure as shit get thru the Orcs !

[tabascoboy]

Don't know how effective these could be, they don't look exactly stealthy, but good for psyops and perhaps one of these could take out a ship, like the Moskva last year...might just deter the missile cruisers they like to use in the Black Sea

It doesn't need to be stealthy; Look at the height of the thing !

In the smallest of chop, it'd be impossible to detect it against the wave tops, & if you can't pick it out, you can't see that it is traveling at say 30kts, & detect it that way.

This is why I was expecting the Orcs to deploy booms, & torpedo nets, just basic physical defenses to protect the bridge; because if the drug cartels can get home made submarines thru the US defenses, then the Ukrainians can sure as shit get thru the Orcs !

Well, there is radar/acoustic/thermal detection to consider too, depending on how good the RU Sea Surface Detection systems are - but maybe the shape helps reflect radar etc...don't know that much about it.

[tabascoboy]

[petej]

Don't know how effective these could be, they don't look exactly stealthy, but good for psyops and perhaps one of these could take out a ship, like the Moskva last year...might just deter the missile cruisers they like to use in the Black Sea

It doesn't need to be stealthy; Look at the height of the thing !

In the smallest of chop, it'd be impossible to detect it against the wave tops, & if you can't pick it out, you can't see that it is traveling at say 30kts, & detect it that way.

This is why I was expecting the Orcs to deploy booms, & torpedo nets, just basic physical defenses to protect the bridge; because if the drug cartels can get home made submarines thru the US defenses, then the Ukrainians can sure as shit get thru the Orcs !

Well, there is radar/acoustic/thermal detection to consider too, depending on how good the RU Sea Surface Detection systems are - but maybe the shape helps reflect radar etc...don't know that much about it.

Good media game from the Ukrainians if the threat of these drones keeps Russian ships in port.

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Preliminary info that Novojehorivka, Luhansk region is also back under AFU control (or at least RU pushed out) after the initial Russian push west of the Zherebets river.

If so, Russians are pushed back just as fast as they initially gained ground. Waiting for some extra info but this looks good.

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Apparently they plan to do this along the entire length of the bridge, which effectively closes the Sea of Azov and its ports to shipping - access to which was part of their "justification" for this attack

[Hellraiser]

Preliminary info that Novojehorivka, Luhansk region is also back under AFU control (or at least RU pushed out) after the initial Russian push west of the Zherebets river.

If so, Russians are pushed back just as fast as they initially gained ground. Waiting for some extra info but this looks good.

Confirmed by DeepState.

[Hellraiser]

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[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Hmm...

[tabascoboy]

The Israeli ship was the first to break through the "grain blockade" of the russian federation, — media.

"Today, the ship Ams 1, spitting on russian threats, entered the Ukrainian branch of the Danube," –– the message reads.

The publication reports that four more vessels are following it "which have either anchored or will anchor in the near future on the Danube."

The US P8 anti-ship aircraft is known to provide security, while the Forte12 RQ-4 reconnaissance drone provides additional information.

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EDIT - looks like a caveat to this news

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

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[Hellraiser]

British intelligence: Ukraine is advancing in the south in two sectors. In the Melitopol direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are confronted by the 58th combined arms army. Its forward regiments are suffering from fatigue due to the lack of rotations and the general depletion of combat capabilities - they have been in fierce combat for eight weeks. In the Berdyansk direction, Ukrainian fighters are confronted by a hodgepodge of units from the Eastern and Southern military districts, which creates problems in coordination between them. Parts of the 5th Combined Arms Army are under particularly strong pressure, and also suffer from a lack of rotations. On the entire southern front, Russian troops suffer from shortages of adequate supplies of ammunition, lack of reserves, and problems protecting units from flank attacks.

@yigal_levin

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

That's a big sign. A breakthrough will definitely happen somewhere.

Looking at some maps, those Russian special forces are going into the line against Ukraine's 72nd Mech (a famous heavy brigade), as well as the 109th TDF Donetsk Defense Brigade and/or (because maps vary) 128th TDF Dnipro City Defense Brigade.

They're going to be sitting in trenches as basic line infantry doing something their special forces training is useless for. Against a brigade or two of volunteer infantry from the TDF's operational command east (ie they're veterans). And the 72nd Mech a heavy brigade with WW2 lineage that fought in the defence of Kyiv and everything after including Bakhmut, difficult listing all the Russian units they've smashed, 90th Guards Tank Division in Brovary is the famous one.

They're fucked.

[Hellraiser]

That's a big sign. A breakthrough will definitely happen somewhere.

Looking at some maps, those Russian special forces are going into the line against Ukraine's 72nd Mech (a famous heavy brigade), as well as the 109th TDF Donetsk Defense Brigade and/or (because maps vary) 128th TDF Dnipro City Defense Brigade.

They're going to be sitting in trenches as basic line infantry doing something their special forces training is useless for. Against a brigade or two of volunteer infantry from the TDF's operational command east (ie they're veterans). And the 72nd Mech a heavy brigade with WW2 lineage that fought in the defence of Kyiv and everything after including Bakhmut, difficult listing all the Russian units they've smashed, 90th Guards Tank Division in Brovary is the famous one.

They're fucked.

The 72nd also wiped out the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade at Vuhledar back in February.

[tabascoboy]

WRT to my post of a few hours ago about an attack in the Black Sea, this is likely related

The russian warships ask for the evacuation of victims after "successfully repelling" an attack in the Black Sea.

In the intercepted conversation between the helicopter crews and the coastal aviation services of the russian federation, the current coordinates of the location of the ships are transmitted and the number of victims is specified.

At the time of the conversation, there is at least one dead person and five wounded who need urgent evacuation.

[tabascoboy]

UN continues in its "as much use as the Pope's balls" role

[petej]

UN continues in its "as much use as the Pope's balls" role

Seems to be incredibly tone deaf.

[PornDog]

Whatever it was it's been deleted now

[tabascoboy]

Looks like it was either misquoted or taken a bit out of context - though notwithstanding that the UN being hopeless still applies

Repost, corrected quote. In a response to a journalist asking what the reaction of the Secretary-General to the drone attack on Moscow was, Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Farhan Haq responded:

"Well, we don’t have any first-hand information on who is responsible for this attack. But certainly, we are against any and all attacks on civilian facilities and we want them to stop."

[Mahoney]

I don’t get what people expect of the UN? It’s not a global government nor is it an independent nation state. It was deliberately set up so that it couldn’t act against the interests of the US, Russia, China, France & the UK by majority decision.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

I don’t get what people expect of the UN? It’s not a global government nor is it an independent nation state. It was deliberately set up so that it couldn’t act against the interests of the US, Russia, China, France & the UK by majority decision.

Which makes it a completely useless waste of time and money. It always has been.

[tabascoboy]

The full series of tweets with images at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1686 ... 60864.html

[Uncle fester]

I don’t get what people expect of the UN? It’s not a global government nor is it an independent nation state. It was deliberately set up so that it couldn’t act against the interests of the US, Russia, China, France & the UK by majority decision.

Which makes it a completely useless waste of time and money. It always has been.

What would you propose instead?

[Hellraiser]

On the credibility of Oryx.

Osinter Archie Irving "audited" Oryx - reviewed all documented losses for duplicates (yes, all 15554 units on both sides) and posted them on Google Drive (it looks like this).

Russia found 136 duplicates for 11487 units (1.2%). Ukraine has 4067 units - 114 duplicates (2.8%).

A total of 15554 units - 2% duplicates, if rounded.

When Archie finds duplicates, he sends them to Oryx and they remove them from their lists. Therefore, you can sometimes see on the site that there were, for example, 11490 losses, and now there are 11487.

Two conclusions:

1. Duplicate among Ukrainian casualties are twice as common as in Russia. This is due precisely to the effect "one unit from 100 different angles" from Russian military correspondents.

2. The total error of 2% is negligible - the losses documented by Oryx are as reliable as possible.

Well, arguments like "the Ukrainian military is forbidden to take pictures of their equipment, so their documented losses are so few" - do not work. Nobody puts their losses on the network. Fixation occurs mainly due to the shooting of other people's losses by both sides.

[Hellraiser]

Well worth a read.

[Uncle fester]

https://www.rte.ie/news/2023/0801/13976 ... nd-wagner/

Probably not a great idea to be poking the Poles in the eye.

[Guy Smiley]

I don’t get what people expect of the UN? It’s not a global government nor is it an independent nation state. It was deliberately set up so that it couldn’t act against the interests of the US, Russia, China, France & the UK by majority decision.

Which makes it a completely useless waste of time and money. It always has been.

Not true, the UN has done some incredibly valuable work over the years. The problem with it is that it doesn't go far enough / act decisively enough for some. If it did, it would be doing too much in the eyes of others.

If you want a global policeman, whose side do you want it to take? To put it another way... after this tyrant, which one next? And then...?

[tabascoboy]

Welcome Norway, this is a good club to be a part of

[Hellraiser]