So, coronavirus...

[Saint]

There are some really problems with exporting AZ vaccibe from the UK

1 - what is really misunderstood is that almost all UK production is actually Government leased, subleased to AZ. The contracts for almost all UK supply chain predates AZ being involved in Oxford, which has effectively inherited the everything.

2- UK production is small. It's genuinely designed to meet UK requirements and not much more (see point 1). It's currently being rebuilt to increase output, so we have an internal short term shortfall, but the ability of UK vaccine manufacturing to significantly scale AZ is stupidly limited right now. There are other significant investments in Harwell and Braintree that will come onstream later this year that oukd change that, but right now it's a challenge.

EU manufacturing output for AZ, while underperforming EU expectations, already massively exceeds UK output

Argument from the other side is that pre-production state intervention has and can similarly interfere with potential for exports as post-production interference. Ie we know from the January fiasco that AZ indicated in some capacity it has/had/thought it had control of the outflow of production from UK sites, otherwise they would frankly not have been specifically referenced in sites that would not require pre-clearance from the EU to make-up continental shortfall. It would surely have been clear as day to AZ at the time that the site's wouldn't meet the complete orders for the UK in time and still include those sites in potential production plans for priority Q1/Q2 deliveries.

If it knew it had no control over the outflow, it would be absolutely bonkers to not state that in the EU contract, rather than have them listed as potential sites?

Invariably a shit situation all round. Wonder if in another world Oxford didn't care for developed world prices, and AZ had a nice profit incentive to deliver and out compete in Europe, that it remained the lead driver of many EU countries plans.

I get that argument, but it's missing the point. Preproduction state intervention has massively accelerated tge development and production capability for AZ not just in the UK factories but also in Europe and the rest if the world. So without that initial UK government gamble the EU production would be even further behind.

And frankly I think the idea that AZ don't have sufficient motivation to get this sorted as soon as possible is laughable - they're making profit on every dose as it is, just not making 100%+ margins

[Biffer]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

[Sandstorm]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

Meh, just don't pay the bill. What will the Tory peer do? Sue?

[Saint]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

This is the amount allocated to the programme in the budget, not what's actually been spent. As of October last year, 4 billion had been spent on the entire programme, lots of it in the actual laboratories and the testing part if the programme. The testing part works fine now, it's tge trace part that's failing.

They won't come close to spending that 15 billion either this year

[robmatic]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

I know it was a big priority but that is outlandishly wasteful. And it didn't even work.

[Tichtheid]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

Billions are a bit of a headfuck as a concept.

If William the Conqueror had started spending 37 million quid per year after the Battle of Hastings in 1066, we still wouldn't have spent £37Bn.

[JM2K6]

Eh, don't we usually refer to a thousand million as a billion in the UK?

[Tichtheid]

Eh, don't we usually refer to a thousand million as a billion in the UK?

yeah, spend 37 million per year for a thousand years and you will have spent 37 thousand million, or 37 billion.

[TheNatalShark]

I get that argument, but it's missing the point. Preproduction state intervention has massively accelerated tge development and production capability for AZ not just in the UK factories but also in Europe and the rest if the world. So without that initial UK government gamble the EU production would be even further behind.

And frankly I think the idea that AZ don't have sufficient motivation to get this sorted as soon as possible is laughable - they're making profit on every dose as it is, just not making 100%+ margins

Quite, and we saw that the level of arms length upfront payments to AZ to expand continent based production was clearly insufficient compared to sums invested by UK and US on both research and their domestic production, with caveats on delivery usage. But the difference in scale of that involvement doesn't warrant "Europeans are scum of the earth and the only people on the planet engaging in vaccine nationalism" view, because both engagements are approaches of vaccine control that limit free market choice. Principal is the same.

I don't think AZ have presented themselves as profit driven re the EU dispute, as compared to Pfizer/Moderna whom moved quite swiftly to arrange expanded contracts and source further production capacity to meet that sudden demand. If the scale of delay was 3 months behind UK scale up due to earlier UK commitments and so evident to the AZ CEO he was comfortable elaborating in the Republica piece that this delay was effectively inevitable, then that would have been communicated in private to the EC much earlier than the slight delay referenced in the mid-Dec communication, rather than the bombshell in late Jan. They wouldn't have stated in a contract that UK production could be used if they knew categorically it either wouldn't, or would be far too late in the day to secure additional orders through the option. At the point of the Australian export they have (for me) either given up on the EU as a long term customer (whom are clearly still eager for supplies, no matter the "Europeans don't want it" chant) and trying to make good contracts with Aus to keep another customer happy in place, or are incredibly lacking in commercial motivation to see how such an action would be perceived by the EU customer. Above actions strike me as trying to keep fire at bay Vs the entrepreneurial gung ho of other producers seeking further payment for putting it out.

[Sandstorm]

If William the Conqueror had started spending 37 million quid per year after the Battle of Hastings in 1066, we still wouldn't have spent £37Bn.

Jeez, that's a lot of Kent coke and hookers!

[Saint]

I get that argument, but it's missing the point. Preproduction state intervention has massively accelerated tge development and production capability for AZ not just in the UK factories but also in Europe and the rest if the world. So without that initial UK government gamble the EU production would be even further behind.

And frankly I think the idea that AZ don't have sufficient motivation to get this sorted as soon as possible is laughable - they're making profit on every dose as it is, just not making 100%+ margins

Quite, and we saw that the level of arms length upfront payments to AZ to expand continent based production was clearly insufficient compared to sums invested by UK and US on both research and their domestic production, with caveats on delivery usage. But the difference in scale of that involvement doesn't warrant "Europeans are scum of the earth and the only people on the planet engaging in vaccine nationalism" view, because both engagements are approaches of vaccine control that limit free market choice. Principal is the same.

I don't think AZ have presented themselves as profit driven re the EU dispute, as compared to Pfizer/Moderna whom moved quite swiftly to arrange expanded contracts and source further production capacity to meet that sudden demand. If the scale of delay was 3 months behind UK scale up due to earlier UK commitments and so evident to the AZ CEO he was comfortable elaborating in the Republica piece that this delay was effectively inevitable, then that would have been communicated in private to the EC much earlier than the slight delay referenced in the mid-Dec communication, rather than the bombshell in late Jan. They wouldn't have stated in a contract that UK production could be used if they knew categorically it either wouldn't, or would be far too late in the day to secure additional orders through the option. At the point of the Australian export they have (for me) either given up on the EU as a long term customer (whom are clearly still eager for supplies, no matter the "Europeans don't want it" chant) and trying to make good contracts with Aus to keep another customer happy in place, or are incredibly lacking in commercial motivation to see how such an action would be perceived by the EU customer. Above actions strike me as trying to keep fire at bay Vs the entrepreneurial gung ho of other producers seeking further payment for putting it out.

You simply can't compare the scale out operations of AZ vs Pfizera and Moderna as they are entirely different technologies and processes to scale out. It should probably also be recognized that AZ have a contract with Aus that is likely at the same level as the EU in terms of priority and that they are undersupplying Aus even if the export had gone through. As for motivation to get this right, the long term goodwill and PR generated by being seen to be a leader in the Covid vaccination effort drastically exceeds the potential profit any of the Pharmas will make, and they know it.

[sturginho]

If William the Conqueror had started spending 37 million quid per year after the Battle of Hastings in 1066, we still wouldn't have spent £37Bn.

Jeez, that's a lot of Kent coke and hookers!

How many mattresses could he have bought?

[TheNatalShark]

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

This is the amount allocated to the programme in the budget, not what's actually been spent. As of October last year, 4 billion had been spent on the entire programme, lots of it in the actual laboratories and the testing part if the programme. The testing part works fine now, it's tge trace part that's failing.

They won't come close to spending that 15 billion either this year

Looks like the new bankers bailout, guaranteed loans provision = money 100% spent and never recovered (all pocketed by bankers and shareholders themselves of course), never mind actual sums spent or what on.

The £15 billion to Serco is my favourite. 2020 results are £600mm rev up with op profit only £70m up (though admittedly 70%ish up)

[Insane_Homer]

https://news.sky.com/story/test-and-tra ... k-12235392

COVID-19: Test and Trace barely used check-in data from pubs and restaurants - with thousands not warned of infection risk

Data from hundreds of millions of check-ins by people who visited pubs, restaurants and hairdressers before lockdown was barely used by Test and Trace, according to a confidential report obtained by Sky News.

The report admits that the failure of the £22bn (£37 Bn) service to use the data for alerts or contact tracing meant "thousands of people" were not warned they might be at risk of infection, "potentially leading to the spread of the virus."

[TheNatalShark]

You simply can't compare the scale out operations of AZ vs Pfizera and Moderna as they are entirely different technologies and processes to scale out. It should probably also be recognized that AZ have a contract with Aus that is likely at the same level as the EU in terms of priority and that they are undersupplying Aus even if the export had gone through. As for motivation to get this right, the long term goodwill and PR generated by being seen to be a leader in the Covid vaccination effort drastically exceeds the potential profit any of the Pharmas will make, and they know it.

Thanks, you're welcome to point out my ignorance of the difference in scalability (we're obviously targeting different aspects and tangents), but the nuances of vaccine supply scalability are more bespoke (welcome, but bespoke) than the principal of what constitutes vaccine nationalism/state interference and in the production to begin with. In my opinion both approaches are reflective of that, probably the only point I'm trying to make. You're welcome to say from your point of greater knowledge that the nuances in aligning supply to enhance national production don't reflect nationalism (or implications are significantly less than actions of post production intervention - I don't actually know your position), and I can appreciate that. In my ideal world the free market would have been able to engage and arrange without need of state support, but of course it's not the world we're in.

I'm aware of the goodwill calc, I've laid out some of the reasons why I don't think it's reflective of a sufficiently capitalist approach (net of goodwill for completeness), and simply wonder if the profit incentive was higher, what the results would be. I personally think it's great for the wider world that AZ are doing this - not sure they (people or governments) will remember it to make it first port of call. Perhaps with sufficient PR they will. Eg I don't know which company(IES) 'eliminated' polio, but perhaps I am in the minority or modern media can resolve that for Covid.

[Sandstorm]

https://news.sky.com/story/test-and-tra ... k-12235392

COVID-19: Test and Trace barely used check-in data from pubs and restaurants - with thousands not warned of infection risk

Data from hundreds of millions of check-ins by people who visited pubs, restaurants and hairdressers before lockdown was barely used by Test and Trace, according to a confidential report obtained by Sky News.

The report admits that the failure of the £22bn (£37 Bn) service to use the data for alerts or contact tracing meant "thousands of people" were not warned they might be at risk of infection, "potentially leading to the spread of the virus."

I wonder if there was pressure from Whitehall not to show how dangerous "Eat out to Help out" actually was?

[SaintK]

https://news.sky.com/story/test-and-tra ... k-12235392

COVID-19: Test and Trace barely used check-in data from pubs and restaurants - with thousands not warned of infection risk

Data from hundreds of millions of check-ins by people who visited pubs, restaurants and hairdressers before lockdown was barely used by Test and Trace, according to a confidential report obtained by Sky News.

The report admits that the failure of the £22bn (£37 Bn) service to use the data for alerts or contact tracing meant "thousands of people" were not warned they might be at risk of infection, "potentially leading to the spread of the virus."

I wonder if there was pressure from Whitehall not to show how dangerous "Eat out to Help out" actually was?

So the government are chucking a further £15Bn at this continuing failing scheme as announced in the budget but aren't putting an additional single penny into social care and in fact have reduced the health budget by £30Bn from April this year
Staggering!

[tc27]

Not understanding the hate for funding T&T - yes its galling to throw good money after bad but if we don't have it we are putting the whole farm on vaccines - and vaccines need to information from test results to detect and develop against new variants.

[dkm57]

Just back from getting the first jab (AZ), feeling OK so far. Everything very slick and well run.

[Ovals]

Not understanding the hate for funding T&T - yes its galling to throw good money after bad but if we don't have it we are putting the whole farm on vaccines - and vaccines need to information from test results to detect and develop against new variants.

It's not so much 'hate', more the eye watering amount of money it appears to be costing. Trident, for comparison, costs about £5bn per year. The entire UK defence budget for 2020 was £41bn.

[SaintK]

Not understanding the hate for funding T&T - yes its galling to throw good money after bad but if we don't have it we are putting the whole farm on vaccines - and vaccines need to information from test results to detect and develop against new variants.

It's not the funding that's the issue. It's the fact that it is still not working efficiently, yet the main benificaries are making £M's of profit out of it with little or no apparent oversight or performance penalty clauses
Where is Harding hiding at the moment?

[SaintK]

Just back from getting the first jab (AZ), feeling OK so far. Everything very slick and well run.

You may not feel too bright the following day
I felt tired and listless for 24 hours. My wife who had hers yesterday morning had a bit of a fever durring the night and feels shoddy today
Nothing that is not unexpected mind

[Hal Jordan]

Not understanding the hate for funding T&T - yes its galling to throw good money after bad but if we don't have it we are putting the whole farm on vaccines - and vaccines need to information from test results to detect and develop against new variants.

It's not the funding that's the issue. It's the fact that it is still not working efficiently, yet the main benificaries are making £M's of profit out of it with little or no apparent oversight or performance penalty clauses
Where is Harding hiding at the moment?

On top of a pile of money, surrounded by many handsome men.

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/cham ... 22419.html

Government failed to publish 504 Covid-19 contracts in time – High Court
....
in respect of 504 of the 535 contracts awarded on or before October 7 2020 – i.e. 94%”.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Just back from getting the first jab (AZ), feeling OK so far. Everything very slick and well run.

You may not feel too bright the following day
I felt tired and listless for 24 hours. My wife who had hers yesterday morning had a bit of a fever durring the night and feels shoddy today
Nothing that is not unexpected mind

A couple of friends have has the AZ vaccine. One didn't notice it at all and the other was absolutely floored for 3 days. YMMV.

[Raggs]

Just to go back to previous discussion, it appears that the b117 is the dominant strain in Denmark and France. Denmark appears to be smashing the sequencing too.

[Sandstorm]

Not understanding the hate for funding T&T - yes its galling to throw good money after bad but if we don't have it we are putting the whole farm on vaccines - and vaccines need to information from test results to detect and develop against new variants.

It's not the funding that's the issue. It's the fact that it is still not working efficiently, yet the main benificaries are making £M's of profit out of it with little or no apparent oversight or performance penalty clauses
Where is Harding hiding at the moment?

Exactly. They should spilt the Testing from the Track & Trace elements. Only the former is working, the latter is a joke.

[Sandstorm]

Just to go back to previous discussion, it appears that the b117 is the dominant strain in Denmark and France. Denmark appears to be smashing the sequencing too.

Bastard virus is just warming up.....

[TheNatalShark]

ScoMo calls out Italy's atrocious actions, preparing for war:

Australia's prime minister on Friday played down the impact of Italy's landmark decision to block the export of 250,000 Covid-19 vaccine doses due to be delivered.

Scott Morrison insisted the blocked shipment of the AstraZeneca jabs was understandable and would not affect Australia's vaccine programme.

"This particular shipment was not one we'd counted on for the rollout, and so we will continue unabated," Morrison said.

Morrison expressed sympathy: "In Italy, people are dying at the rate of 300 a day. And so I can certainly understand the high level of anxiety that would exist in Italy and in many countries across Europe."

"They are in an unbridled crisis situation. That is not the situation in Australia," he added.

Australia's chief medical officer, Paul Kelly, also offered solidarity: "My sister lives in Italy. They're at the moment having 18,000 cases a day."

Still, Italy's export ban rekindled accusations of "vaccine nationalism", something Morrison pushed back against pointing to the "large amount of vaccines" that have already left the European Union.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/austr ... 51550.html

[JM2K6]

That sounds like the opposite of "calling out".

[TheNatalShark]

That sounds like the opposite of "calling out".

Terrible whoosh

[Saint]

That sounds like the opposite of "calling out".

I think TNS was ironing a bit.

Frankly Scott Morrison made the Ursula and the rest of the EU politicians look a bit amateur

[JM2K6]

That sounds like the opposite of "calling out".

Terrible whoosh

Guilty as charged.

[Lobby]

It’s being reported that Germany is to rewrite its vaccination plan and follow Britain’s ‘reckless’ plan of delaying the second dose of coronavirus vaccines.

[JM2K6]

Tbf, it was reckless. It was a gamble that paid off. Doing it now isn't a gamble.

[Lobby]

Tbf, it was reckless. It was a gamble that paid off. Doing it now isn't a gamble.

Wasn’t it a calculated risk that limited immunity in a larger population was better than increased immunity in a small portion of the population, and so not reckless? The fact it appears to have improved efficacy was an unintended benefit.

[JM2K6]

Tbf, it was reckless. It was a gamble that paid off. Doing it now isn't a gamble.

Wasn’t it a calculated risk that limited immunity in a larger population was better than increased immunity in a small portion of the population, and so not reckless? The fact it appears to have improved efficacy was an unintended benefit.

It was reckless because they didn't know whether it would actually work. It could have rendered the first round of jabs meaningless. All the data was based on two jabs at specific times.

[dkm57]

Just back from getting the first jab (AZ), feeling OK so far. Everything very slick and well run.

You may not feel too bright the following day
I felt tired and listless for 24 hours. My wife who had hers yesterday morning had a bit of a fever durring the night and feels shoddy today
Nothing that is not unexpected mind

This like running into a very soft padded wall, feeling really quite sh!t so have taken refuge in my pit.

[Raggs]

Tbf, it was reckless. It was a gamble that paid off. Doing it now isn't a gamble.

Wasn’t it a calculated risk that limited immunity in a larger population was better than increased immunity in a small portion of the population, and so not reckless? The fact it appears to have improved efficacy was an unintended benefit.

It was reckless because they didn't know whether it would actually work. It could have rendered the first round of jabs meaningless. All the data was based on two jabs at specific times.

They knew that the first jab offered some efficacy on it's own, since they had at least 21 days of data (arguably more, since the effects of the second wouldn't have kicked in on day 1). That efficacy was lower than is now being shown, but even before the government decided to do it, I was posting here saying it could be smarter to focus on single doses to more people, if the jump between the first and 2nd dose was something like 65-95. At the time, the Pfizer didn't seem to be worth it on the numbers we were given back then, but AZ did seem to be. That efficacy increased further after 21 days from a single dose may have also been an educated guess, as we have many single dose vaccines that could give similar results (albeit not so much with pfizer).

[JM2K6]

Wasn’t it a calculated risk that limited immunity in a larger population was better than increased immunity in a small portion of the population, and so not reckless? The fact it appears to have improved efficacy was an unintended benefit.

It was reckless because they didn't know whether it would actually work. It could have rendered the first round of jabs meaningless. All the data was based on two jabs at specific times.

They knew that the first jab offered some efficacy on it's own, since they had at least 21 days of data (arguably more, since the effects of the second wouldn't have kicked in on day 1). That efficacy was lower than is now being shown, but even before the government decided to do it, I was posting here saying it could be smarter to focus on single doses to more people, if the jump between the first and 2nd dose was something like 65-95. At the time, the Pfizer didn't seem to be worth it on the numbers we were given back then, but AZ did seem to be. That efficacy increased further after 21 days from a single dose may have also been an educated guess, as we have many single dose vaccines that could give similar results (albeit not so much with pfizer).

They didn't know how long the immunity conferred by a single jab would last for.