So, coronavirus...

[Mahoney]

Did a quick check on two panel members:

Robert Malone: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... ic/619734/

And Richard Urso, the Hydroxychloroquine doc. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22446-z "We found that treatment with hydroxychloroquine is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients, and there is no benefit of chloroquine. Findings have unclear generalizability to outpatients, children, pregnant women, and people with comorbidities."

[Enzedder]

8 doctors, Convoluted??? 8???

I would rather listen to the 100,000 who are strongly in favour.

[dpedin]

In Scotland c4.2m people have been given at least one dose of vaccine, 5 people have died as a direct result of the vaccine, 11,260+ have died from covid. I prefer the odds of having the vaccine and not dying from covid.

[tabascoboy]

Quite a few posts there to read, the tl;dr is the booster program needs to kick into high gear fast

[Rinkals]

I don't doubt that there will be resurgences of the virus once winter sets in and people move indoors.

The hope is that the levels of vaccinated will be high enough to mitigate this.

[Paddington Bear]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

[dpedin]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

Almost 50,000 cases in UK yesterday and things look like it is getting worse. I agree the move to indoor entertainment is underway and the increase in cases will lead to a steady increase in cases over next few weeks. We will also see increase in other flu/respiratory viruses spread given our drop in immunity to them. With 26% of the pop still not vaccinated - mix of kids and those who for a variety of reasons are eligible but haven't taken the vaccine - means there is still a huge pool of people who could still catch covid. The gov aim of achieving herd immunity through infection as well as vaccine is going well - It's going to be another difficult winter.

[GogLais]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

Almost 50,000 cases in UK yesterday and things look like it is getting worse. I agree the move to indoor entertainment is underway and the increase in cases will lead to a steady increase in cases over next few weeks. We will also see increase in other flu/respiratory viruses spread given our drop in immunity to them. With 26% of the pop still not vaccinated - mix of kids and those who for a variety of reasons are eligible but haven't taken the vaccine - means there is still a huge pool of people who could still catch covid. The gov aim of achieving herd immunity through infection as well as vaccine is going well - It's going to be another difficult winter.

Indeed. About 40k cases per day over three months is getting on for 6% of the total population. Some of those will be people that have been vaccinated (like my son and his wife who have just had it) but then the 40k is bound to be (substantially?) less than the real figure.
It's interesting - some friends of ours have been far more cautious than we have. We haven't been reckless but have been on several UK holidays and travelled a fair bit by train over the last few months and have got away with it. I don't know whether we've been lucky or whether they've locked themselves away far more that they needed to. Roll on the booster jab!

[tabascoboy]

Guess new mutations will be a thing every few months

Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK

Officials are keeping a close watch on a new descendant of the Delta variant of Covid that is causing a growing number of infections. Delta is the UK's dominant variant, but latest official data suggests 6% of Covid cases that have been genetically sequenced are of a new type.

AY.4.2, which some are calling "Delta Plus", contains mutations that might give the virus survival advantages. Tests are under way to understand how much of a threat it may pose. Experts say it is unlikely to take off in a big way or escape current vaccines.

It is not yet considered a variant of concern, or a variant under investigation - the categories assigned to variants and the level of risk associated with them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650

[SaintK]

I think the point with the UK is the move indoors has already happened. The messaging on ventilation has never got through and people just plain don't like being cold. Not a great recipe.

Almost 50,000 cases in UK yesterday and things look like it is getting worse. I agree the move to indoor entertainment is underway and the increase in cases will lead to a steady increase in cases over next few weeks. We will also see increase in other flu/respiratory viruses spread given our drop in immunity to them. With 26% of the pop still not vaccinated - mix of kids and those who for a variety of reasons are eligible but haven't taken the vaccine - means there is still a huge pool of people who could still catch covid. The gov aim of achieving herd immunity through infection as well as vaccine is going well - It's going to be another difficult winter.

Indeed. About 40k cases per day over three months is getting on for 6% of the total population. Some of those will be people that have been vaccinated (like my son and his wife who have just had it) but then the 40k is bound to be (substantially?) less than the real figure.
It's interesting - some friends of ours have been far more cautious than we have. We haven't been reckless but have been on several UK holidays and travelled a fair bit by train over the last few months and have got away with it. I don't know whether we've been lucky or whether they've locked themselves away far more that they needed to. Roll on the booster jab!

........and rising, Not a good look at all!!!

The UK has reported its highest number of Covid deaths for seven months, with 223 deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive test for the virus.

The daily death rate, which has not been as high since 9 March, brought the weekly toll to 911, a near-15% rise on the week.

A further 43,738 coronavirus cases were reported, down slightly on Monday’s figure, though daily hospitalisations continued to rise, reaching 921, up 10% on the week.

After a bumpy September, confirmed cases have risen steadily in October with Covid rates soaring among largely unvaccinated secondary schoolchildren, and infections spilling over into older, more vulnerable age groups.

The spread of infections beyond younger people has driven up cases in those aged 50 and over, a trend that has started to push up hospitalisations and death rates.

[tabascoboy]

The way things are going there's every chance of another "do we have to cancel Christmas dilemma?"

[salanya]

See, this annoys me:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58973185

'No 10 is keeping a close on eye on rising Covid cases'
'Boris is expecting a hard winter'
'We'll only go to Plan B if things get really bad'

That's just so empty and passive. Why not try and communicate, and at least attempt to avoid things getting worse?!

Some simple messages: 'cases are rising, remember to wear a face mask on public transport', 'cases are rising amongst children, make sure everybody washes hands regularly and coughs in a tissue', 'if you're going back into work, remember your hands, face, space'. 'We are keeping an eye on things, and encourage everyone to do those basics again to avoid catching Covid and passing it on'.

I know we all know these things, but the message has been that we're getting back to normal, and it's been a testing period so people look for the hope and security to think it's all over.
But we're not there yet, and we've been saying for months that winter will get bad. So why not communicate how we can try and prevent it, and get people engaged with the subject again. Not all will, and there's no need for panic stations, but just message the basics to reaffirm the seriousness of the disease and the difficult place the NHS is in.

We need to live with Covid, so let's do that, rather than pretending it's not really there (until things get really bad).

[Insane_Homer]

“I think our approach is working” Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng tells BBCBreakfast

as nearly 1,000 a week are still dying from it... &

[Paddington Bear]

Face masks is essentially a red herring given that wherever we all go on public transport the place will be heated and unventilated.

[tc27]

Before everyone piles in I am open minded about further measures (would have no problem with stricter mask rules and vaccine passports right now) and the government needs to really get boosters done with the same urgency it got the first doses done in the spring...but the important metric here is hospital admissions and ventilated beds in use not just cases.



I know I will be absolutely belted for this but we twice completely changed everyone's way of life, closed down the economy and added billions to our debt burden - there is a discussion to be had about how many times we do this even if it places the NHS under pressure (albeit far less than in the previous spikes).

Anecdotally speaking to a friend in Germany we are far more open here than they are - our vaccines were administered earlier so the effect is wearing off faster.

[Tichtheid]

The spike around 1950 came from post war debt plus building the NHS and the Welfare State. We repaid debt to the U during that period too.
I'm not saying "sod the debt" but it's not the most pressing concern right now.

[tabascoboy]

Anyone in the UK who has had an invite for the booster jab? Certainly on neighbourhood social media in my locale not one person says they've had the invite let alone the jab.

[Tichtheid]

Anyone in the UK who has had an invite for the booster jab? Certainly on neighbourhood social media in my locale not one person says they've had the invite let alone the jab.

My mum had her booster jab along with a flu jab last week in Edinburgh

[tabascoboy]

Anyone in the UK who has had an invite for the booster jab? Certainly on neighbourhood social media in my locale not one person says they've had the invite let alone the jab.

My mum had her booster jab along with a flu jab last week in Edinburgh

That's another thing actually, no invite for a flu jab either ( usually get reminders for the freebie in the post as I'm "of an age")

[Tichtheid]

Anyone in the UK who has had an invite for the booster jab? Certainly on neighbourhood social media in my locale not one person says they've had the invite let alone the jab.

My mum had her booster jab along with a flu jab last week in Edinburgh

That's another thing actually, no invite for a flu jab either ( usually get reminders for the freebie in the post as I'm "of an age")

I had my flu jab last week, my wife is with a different surgery but hasn't heard anything yet

[Biffer]

Anyone in the UK who has had an invite for the booster jab? Certainly on neighbourhood social media in my locale not one person says they've had the invite let alone the jab.

My mum had her booster jab along with a flu jab last week in Edinburgh

My Mum has her booster scheduled for next week and had her flu vaccine a couple of weeks ago (Highland Perthshire).

[Biffer]

The spike around 1950 came from post war debt plus building the NHS and the Welfare State. We repaid debt to the U during that period too.
I'm not saying "sod the debt" but it's not the most pressing concern right now.

The public net debt thing has a few different ways to look at it as well though. If you consider how much it costs to service that debt, it currently costs us less to service the total amount of debt we have now than it has done at any point since the fifties. So even though we owe more, it's costing us less than it did before.

[dpedin]

Before everyone piles in I am open minded about further measures (would have no problem with stricter mask rules and vaccine passports right now) and the government needs to really get boosters done with the same urgency it got the first doses done in the spring...but the important metric here is hospital admissions and ventilated beds in use not just cases.



I know I will be absolutely belted for this but we twice completely changed everyone's way of life, closed down the economy and added billions to our debt burden - there is a discussion to be had about how many times we do this even if it places the NHS under pressure (albeit far less than in the previous spikes).

Anecdotally speaking to a friend in Germany we are far more open here than they are - our vaccines were administered earlier so the effect is wearing off faster.

I dont disagree with the numbers you show and that we should do everything possible to avoid another lock down. However ...

Looking at the number of covid patients in the NHS at a point in time is problematic - the ongoing cumulative effect of all these additional high risk cases that require intensive infection control and significant nursing, medical, etc support on the NHS has been huge. It has had a huge impact on NHS capacity, the loss of beds and capacity due to the covid patient numbers has been enormous - even the simple process of individual members of staff having to robe and mask up and then change all that every time on ward/ICU etc is exhausting for the individual care worker, takes a lot of time and effort and ultimately requires more staff time. Hospitals have been split into red and green zones, bed numbers have been reduced due to infection control, throughput in many diagnostic areas has been reduced, staff availability due to shielding/testing/infection/caring responsibilities has been hammered, etc. The impact of this on 'routine' emergency and elective care has been staggering witnessed by the long wait times at A&E and for elective work. It will take 5+ years for the NHS to recover and address the existing backlogs and get waiting times back to pre pandemic levels.

Covid patients in hospital is not a very good metric for determining if the NHS is under pressure. For example paeds A&E and ICU are under pressure at the moment not because of covid but due to the 40% increase in RSV cases that have arisen months before the usual peak, probably arising because lock down prevented RSV spread last winter. Many paeds ICU staff worked all last winter in adult ICUs because of covid.

Running any system red hot and at 100% for a lengthy period of time will break the system and the people in that system. It's a bit like the retail sector trying to run at peak Xmas levels for 52 weeks a year - they can't do it with the existing systems, resources and staff in place. My local pub has decided because of lack of staff it is shutting on a Monday and Tuesday. The NHS cant do that it is open 24/7 for 52 weeks a year. There is no down time and as soon as covid numbers reduce they turn to addressing the huge backlogs and continue to run at 100% to try and catch up and that is with lists getting ever bigger because of lock downs and demographics adding more patients.

I honestly can't understand why the Blonde Bumblecunt decided to withdraw all PH mitigations and tell everyone the pandemic was over and to get back to work. From a PH and economic stance this was a disaster. He should have adopted a more gradual approach, as many European countries have done, and retained basic PH mitigations like masks, distancing, ventilation, work from home, etc, pushed for earlier vaccination of kids before they went back to school, pushed hard on booster jabs and introduced vaccine passports. This would have slowed any growth in covid over the autumn/winter, allowed the economy to continue to open up with only very minor interruptions and hopefully avoided any need for a lock down this winter. The outcomes of the approach they have adopted - comparable European leading growth in cases, hospitalisations and deaths - is the most likely to lead to what they have said they didnt want - another lock down! Some might think it was a deliberate policy to achieve herd immunity through infection of the younger members of our society? It might have back fired?

PS Lets not even mention long covid.

[Paddington Bear]

Honestly not convinced I can do another lockdown and would strongly consider rule breaking (I haven't in previous ones). Doubt I'm alone but the government promising there won't be one is essentially the bat signal that there will be one.

[Sandstorm]

Anyone in the UK who has had an invite for the booster jab? Certainly on neighbourhood social media in my locale not one person says they've had the invite let alone the jab.

Our local GP surgery is getting flu jabs out the the way first and waiting for stocks of boosters before issuing them.

God knows how that helps 80+ year olds who had their second Covid shot 7+ months ago......

[tc27]

Honestly not convinced I can do another lockdown and would strongly consider rule breaking (I haven't in previous ones). Doubt I'm alone but the government promising there won't be one is essentially the bat signal that there will be one.

I think the consent for a further full on lockdown simply does not exist - at least amongst people I know. Government could of course drop its 'get back to the office' rhetoric and re-introduce mask rules. Also personally happy for vaccine passports to be introduced across the UK if it works in Scotland.

[Sandstorm]

Honestly not convinced I can do another lockdown and would strongly consider rule breaking (I haven't in previous ones). Doubt I'm alone but the government promising there won't be one is essentially the bat signal that there will be one.

I think the consent for a further full on lockdown simply does not exist - at least amongst people I know.

The Laws to lock-up pub landlords & gym owners for opening during lockdown still exist. Of course that won't help for people who will just mix with whoever they want privately over the winter.

[Paddington Bear]

Honestly not convinced I can do another lockdown and would strongly consider rule breaking (I haven't in previous ones). Doubt I'm alone but the government promising there won't be one is essentially the bat signal that there will be one.

I think the consent for a further full on lockdown simply does not exist - at least amongst people I know.

The Laws to lock-up pub landlords & gym owners for opening during lockdown still exist. Of course that won't help for people who will just mix with whoever they want privately over the winter.

Yeah I think I'd just continue to see my friends this time - the last lockdown was utterly brutal.

[robmatic]

Honestly not convinced I can do another lockdown and would strongly consider rule breaking (I haven't in previous ones). Doubt I'm alone but the government promising there won't be one is essentially the bat signal that there will be one.

If you're fully vaccinated it does change the equation somewhat compared to the previous lockdowns as well. You've already dramatically reduced the risk to your own health as well as that of transmitting to other people and of putting an additional load on the health service.

[Paddington Bear]

Honestly not convinced I can do another lockdown and would strongly consider rule breaking (I haven't in previous ones). Doubt I'm alone but the government promising there won't be one is essentially the bat signal that there will be one.

If you're fully vaccinated it does change the equation somewhat compared to the previous lockdowns as well. You've already dramatically reduced the risk to your own health as well as that of transmitting to other people and of putting an additional load on the health service.

Pretty much. Will obviously take a booster as and when.

[tc27]

Reasonable number of boosters today (200k).

If the government can get this number up higher over the next month it may well stop this getting much worse.

[Insane_Homer]

[SaintK]

Reasonable number of boosters today (200k).

If the government can get this number up higher over the next month it may well stop this getting much worse.

Thought they'd been stuck on 200k for a few days?
Listening to to interviews with NHS personnel on lunchtime news there appears to be rampant confusion as to who should be doing what and where. Lack of leadership and direction once again

[GogLais]

Having listened to Sajid Javid saying that the Gov’t is basing its policy on the vaccine and the public voluntarily taking proper precautions they are either reckless or are extremely well-advised and have nerves of steel. Who knows which?

[dpedin]

Having listened to Sajid Javid saying that the Gov’t is basing its policy on the vaccine and the public voluntarily taking proper precautions they are either reckless or are extremely well-advised and have nerves of steel. Who knows which?

I thought that briefing was mind numbingly awful ... the Gov is increasingly trying to shift the blame onto everyone else for the pandemic, first GPs, then the NHS and now the public for not doing what they are told and copying the Gov instead by not wearing masks in crowded indoor places such as the HoC , HoL and the Tory Party Conference. Just feckin unbelievable!

[Paddington Bear]

Screams we’ll lockdown but too late to make a meaningful difference and then we’re just in time to shit the bed over Christmas again.
Still, might get to Twickenham

[Slick]

Having just got back from a couple of days in London it seems most have stopped any kind of mitigation.

Was particularly amazed that it was probably 50/50 mask wearing on the tube despite constant announcements and posters everywhere. Several times I was the only person in a shop/pub/restaurant wearing one.

[Dogbert]

No furlough, no lockdown, and I can't see furlough being reintroduced

[salanya]

We won't lockdown, Tories won't accept that politically/economically. They'll just watch the NHS slowly buckle, and in a few months the army will be doing most of the ambulance and transport truck driving. Not sure if we'll have any teachers left, but they left Gavin in charge of education for ages, which shows how much they value the education sector

With the vaccines we shouldn't have to lock down either, but we should have been managing this so much better.
At least there is more reference again of the basic measures, and NHS leads have clearly decided to start communicating the seriousness of the situation themselves.

But the hypocricy of the government is awful. No masks in the House of Commons, or in any of their meetings, but then will complain that numbers are going up and the difficulty of handling the situation.
And this has not been some sudden increase; numbers have been going up for months, and they just ignored it, because 9 months ago they had such a great start with the vaccinations.
They must all be followers of good old General Melchett: If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.

[JM2K6]

Yeah, the difference now is that those who would've been a bit saner about lockdowns and messaging have either been discredited by other actions, booted out of their positions, or both (hi Matt). So we're left with the likes of Javid and Sunak who are full-bore "cry freedom and let the virus rip" types