NPR

Uncle fester wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:48 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:23 pm

Flockwitt wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:55 pm Yep like those 200 husbands who have simply vanished.

Matters will come to a head soon enough. You know the Russians are scraping the barrel when army corps 1 is sending the crap old tanks to support army corps 2 in Popasna. Russia will do all they can to take the Severodonetsk salient. They can’t live with Ukraine holding the other side of the river. But that’s about it you’d have to assume at this point given their glacial progress to date.

A lot will depend on how much smack the new gear can put down on the Russian artillery and logistics through July. Like dear old
Denys smiling because the m777s took out an ammo dump in Izyum.

My personal opinion is that this won’t drag on for years. The modern weapons are just that much more lethal than WW1 for instance and something will have to give.

People said that in WW1. A bit before that but Gatling was very hopeful that his gun was so lethal that it would render pitched battle and prolonged war pointless, and here we are.

Don't forget that Russia actually did break in ww1 through a combination of military reversals and domestic unrest.

Hellraiser wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:25 pm

yermum wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:52 am

what its like to be in an ammo dump as its exploding around you.

some of the most intense footage I have seen

laurent wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:27 pm

Hellraiser wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:54 pm

TheFrog wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:14 pm

I guess a key factor is the ability to maintain (actually repair) the gears as they wear out through combats and to supply the ammunition required to sustain the fight.

We hear conflicting messages on this and I would be relieved if there could be at least a confirmation from the ammunition manufacturers that their production rates are going up and fast enough.

Romania and Slovakia have recommenced production of 152mm ammunition to supply Ukraine.

One of these will also make barrels

French defence sector has been asked to ramp production too

25% of or modern artillery has been shipped to Ukraine and there are orders to fill as well as rebuild our stock.

Uncle fester wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:17 am Doubt the Russians give a fück about the Wagner guys.

Apparently the Chechens get repatriated immediately though.

Calculon wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:53 am Long but interesting thread on Russian military production capacity. Basically they can't make their own machine tools and rely mostly on Europe countries, not china. The Russians bought shit loads of tools with all their oil and gas money.

tabascoboy wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:04 am There has been talk of encirclement yesterday/today but seem that may have been avoided. Sensible, hopefully an orderly withdrawal that leaves them intact to muster defences in a better position

FalseBayFC wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:39 am

Calculon wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:53 am Long but interesting thread on Russian military production capacity. Basically they can't make their own machine tools and rely mostly on Europe countries, not china. The Russians bought shit loads of tools with all their oil and gas money.

That kamikaze drone bombing of that refinery made me think how many valves, gauges and precision instrumentation are involved in the oil and gas industry. All manufactured by the US, Germany, Japan, UK, South Korea etc. They're screwed I reckon. They'll exist on reserves, cannibalization and jury-rigging stuff for a little while. But eventually a cascade effect is going to hit every part of their industrial world and economy. I think its irreversible at this stage.

Hellraiser wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:50 am

tabascoboy wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:04 am There has been talk of encirclement yesterday/today but seem that may have been avoided. Sensible, hopefully an orderly withdrawal that leaves them intact to muster defences in a better position

The Ukrainians don't risk their troops unnecessarily. From the very start their entire tactical/operational policy has been to kill as many Russians as possible with as few casualties as possible even if they have to concede ground.

Hellraiser wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:45 pm

Flockwitt wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:45 pm I wonder where Ukraine will have a go at first once they get the opportunity. I would suggest Kherson front. Difficult for Russia to move additional troops there and less chance of things to go badly wrong. A threat to Crimea will force Putin's hand in the east. The Russians definitely want to keep it.

Hellraiser wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:23 pm

Flockwitt wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:45 pm I wonder where Ukraine will have a go at first once they get the opportunity. I would suggest Kherson front. Difficult for Russia to move additional troops there and less chance of things to go badly wrong. A threat to Crimea will force Putin's hand in the east. The Russians definitely want to keep it.

I think Kherson is definitely the priority. The Ukrainians have gone dark on the South but have little issue with admitting withdrawals in Donbas. I reckon the PzH 2000s and HIMARS are going straight to Kherson. There's been so many troop withdrawals from Melitopol and even Mariupol that a solid strike from the West and Zaporizhzhia could see the Russians break and rout provided the Ukrainians have enough heavy equipment to push through.