So, coronavirus...

[JM2K6]

Yeah, he explicitly states his assumptions in the tweet. It's not direct evidence for the efficacy of masks.

[Enzedder]

Well this is good - I reckon it's the type of bastard thing waiting to line me up

DELTACRON:
A scientist in Cyprus recently reported a variant in 25 patients that looked like a genetic combination of both Omicron and Delta. While it is possible for different variants to “recombine,” scientists looking at the data believe that this is a case of contamination in the lab where the sequencing took place. Evaluation is on-going, but while “deltacron” sounds like another cool transformer name it is likely NOT something you need to worry about (yet )
https://qz.com/.../deltacron-variant-is ... -a-lab.../

[laurent]

Well this is good - I reckon it's the type of bastard thing waiting to line me up

DELTACRON:
A scientist in Cyprus recently reported a variant in 25 patients that looked like a genetic combination of both Omicron and Delta. While it is possible for different variants to “recombine,” scientists looking at the data believe that this is a case of contamination in the lab where the sequencing took place. Evaluation is on-going, but while “deltacron” sounds like another cool transformer name it is likely NOT something you need to worry about (yet )
https://qz.com/.../deltacron-variant-is ... -a-lab.../

Thankfully most likely a lab error

[Calculon]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

[Biffer]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

There aren't that many countries in the world that have the academic base around epidemic modelling that we have. So it's proba ly more prominent here than in most places.

[Enzedder]

Aren't those scenarios based on what could happen if no action is taken?

[dpedin]

Modelling isn't about predictions, it all depends on what assumptions you make and model, usually based on what is known at the time. So if a new variant comes along and you don't know much about it then you might base modelling assumptions on what you know of existing/previous variants and if then if more info becomes available then you change your assumptions accordingly. Models all say 'here are the assumptions on which this model is based' and usually they can be refined, changed and adapted as more info comes to light. Trying to diminish the role of modelling because folk think they are wrong is just plain stupid and I wouldn't expect anything less from the Spectator to be honest.

As said above the UK has a very strong history in epidemiology, public health medicine and in associated modelling capability, let's celebrate it and not diminish it because a few right wing populists don't understand it and don't like it for political reasons..

[Ymx]

What’s the opinion on SAGE?

[petej]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

they've been prominent in influencing UK policy. Essentially, because Johnson is such a moron they have had to consistently use worse case scenarios to get him to act. With a competent leader they wouldn't have been so noticeable. Spectator has zero integrity and a lot of the time forgets to note a change of policy on a model that assumes no change in policy.

[Ymx]

What’s the opinion on SAGE?

Doh. I should have opened Calculons link.

[Biffer]

What’s the opinion on SAGE?

All very good scientists but I'm not certain that all the individual Sage panels (there are multiple Sage groups) have a broad enough range of opinion to fully reflect that genuine range of scientific opinion in that area. Not saying every opinion needs represented, but I think some panels may have a certain level of groupthink.

[Ymx]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

[Wrinkles]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

Not sure why that’s worrying. Given 1:15 are estimated to have Covid, deaths are barely above the average infection level. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6,000 deaths a day at this stage, but even the BBC are now talking down the numbers - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60000391

[Ymx]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

Not sure why that’s worrying. Given 1:15 are estimated to have Covid, deaths are barely above the average infection level. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6,000 deaths a day at this stage, but even the BBC are now talking down the numbers - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60000391

Did you click my spoiler? Was making a point of the reality of it vs published.

[Biffer]

We don't have 20,000 deaths due to flu. These are the numbers for deaths from flu and pneumonia - they are coded together in the death stats. Flu deaths are actually a lot smaller. Pneumonia can be caused by flu, lots will be but there are lots of other reasons why folk get pneumonia and die from it. See https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transpar ... 019and2020

Yeah, but that’s where the three hundred deaths a day figure comes from, flu and pneumonia.

Yeh but the 20k+ deaths are for both flu and pneumonia and pneumonia can be caused by a range of viral, bacterial and fungal infections. There will be a number of medical conditions for which patients will go on to develop pneumonia and possibly die from it.

The notes to the data also say that the numbers are for where flu and pneumonia were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate and not just the underlying cause of death. This will inflate the numbers - many of the number will include patients who died with pneumonia not because of it.

The true figure of death due to influenza in 2019 is probably somewhere between the 1,223 who were coded as for dying with flu and the 26,342 who died from either flu and pneumonia.

This is an interesting analysis

https://t.co/ewlOoqAHav

[Wrinkles]

Speaking of stats.

Here is the UK deaths daily with covid looking worrying.

Spoiler

Show

And here is the UK deaths daily from covid

Not sure why that’s worrying. Given 1:15 are estimated to have Covid, deaths are barely above the average infection level. SAGE predicted between 600 and 6,000 deaths a day at this stage, but even the BBC are now talking down the numbers - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60000391

Did you click my spoiler? Was making a point of the reality of it vs published.

Bugger. No, I hadn’t noticed it! As you were.

[Ymx]

[C69]

Well with regards to vaccines and work in the NHS, I recieved a list of all the staff in my dept that I have to discuss Vaccine as a Condition of Deployment (VCOD).
Give all the staff are patient facing and the opportunities of non patient facing activities are scarce/non existent then this is going to be challenging to say the least.

I suspect the shit is about to hot the fan actoss the NHS. I for one am not looking forward to having these discussions and will ensure I have a box of tears for the staff and a flack jacket and armour for me.

[petej]

Well with regards to vaccines and work in the NHS, I recieved a list of all the staff in my dept that I have to discuss Vaccine as a Condition of Deployment (VCOD).
Give all the staff are patient facing and the opportunities of non patient facing activities are scarce/non existent then this is going to be challenging to say the least.

I suspect the shit is about to hot the fan actoss the NHS. I for one am not looking forward to having these discussions and will ensure I have a box of tears for the staff and a flack jacket and armour for me.

I would be surprised if any one who works in a hospital hasn't been exposed to COVID. Considering where we are isn't this is increasingly pointless? Some point soon ie in the next 6 months we are going to give up on the isolation and separation of COVID patients.

[tc27]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

[petej]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

Not sure deaths even went up at all. Perhaps because Omicron displaced delta (and booster role out +increased immunity) deaths actually fell. There is a downward trend since the beginning November.

Screenshot_20220117-101459.png (259.94 KiB) Viewed 1207 times

[dpedin]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

Hopefully this is the end of this wave. This is the third/fourth wave of cases and deaths we have had with covid and although the number of cases has been high the number of deaths with this wave has been greatly reduced thanks to the vaccination programme. It seems to be the unvaccinated who are disproportionately dying with omicron. Will this be the last wave of cases and will another variant emerge, we don't know yet. From what I have been told there is likely to be another wave of omicron later in the spring so this is a good time to really push the vaccination programme amongst those reluctant to have it and within the younger age groups. This would save guard us against future variants which hopefully the vaccines will still protect us against. Hopefully first world countries will also now push the vaccination programme world wide and protect us by protecting the world poorest from this virus.

[dpedin]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

Not sure deaths even went up at all. Perhaps because Omicron displaced delta (and booster role out +increased immunity) deaths actually fell. There is a downward trend since the beginning November.
Screenshot_20220117-101459.png

Excess deaths in UK have been higher than 5 year average pre pandemic since end of July 2021. Whilst I understand the debate about underlying cause/cause of death data the reality is that the covid pandemic has directly resulted in more folk dying, about c1,500 folk per week on average (guesstimate from eyeballing data) since July 2021. One small glimmer of hope is that the excess deaths number is getting smaller.

[JM2K6]

Is the focus on modelling a uniquely UK thing? Haven't noticed it to nowhere near the same level in any other country.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how ... -an-update

they've been prominent in influencing UK policy. Essentially, because Johnson is such a moron they have had to consistently use worse case scenarios to get him to act. With a competent leader they wouldn't have been so noticeable. Spectator has zero integrity and a lot of the time forgets to note a change of policy on a model that assumes no change in policy.

Yeah, it cannot be stated strongly enough that the Spectator has form for this - they are not an unbiased source. As I mentioned here: http://notplanetrugby.com/viewtopic.php ... 45#p164679 their attempt at a 'dashboard' tracking reality vs SAGE was deeply disingenuous

[mat the expat]

Well with regards to vaccines and work in the NHS, I recieved a list of all the staff in my dept that I have to discuss Vaccine as a Condition of Deployment (VCOD).
Give all the staff are patient facing and the opportunities of non patient facing activities are scarce/non existent then this is going to be challenging to say the least.

I suspect the shit is about to hot the fan actoss the NHS. I for one am not looking forward to having these discussions and will ensure I have a box of tears for the staff and a flack jacket and armour for me.

We have to supply proof of vaccination to our workplaces here to be allowed in the building.

Don't have a problem with it

[JM2K6]

Christ, just chatting to a mate and he tells me his youngest daughter caught Covid 6 weeks ago and has tested positive again today...

[Biffer]

Cases really tumbled in the last week in Scotland. Less than 3,000 positive PCR tests reported today, compared to 17,000 a fortnight ago.

[Marylandolorian]

Christ, just chatting to a mate and he tells me his youngest daughter caught Covid 6 weeks ago and has tested positive again today...

If it was a PCR test , it can remain positive for up to 12 weeks after infection, CDC recommends antigens test instead.

[Mahoney]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Case numbers imply we are well past the peak of this wave.

It also looks like deaths and hospital admissions are starting to follow cases albeit with the usual lag.

Not sure deaths even went up at all. Perhaps because Omicron displaced delta (and booster role out +increased immunity) deaths actually fell. There is a downward trend since the beginning November.
Screenshot_20220117-101459.png

Don't think you can make that call yet - the data on deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate is only robust up to 20th December and only even present up to 31st December. Deaths within 28 days of positive test only began to rise on 26th December. So there's every chance it just hasn't filtered through yet. Until this wave deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate have generally been marginally higher for the same date than deaths within 28 days of positive test.

[JM2K6]

Christ, just chatting to a mate and he tells me his youngest daughter caught Covid 6 weeks ago and has tested positive again today...

If it was a PCR test , it can remain positive for up to 12 weeks after infection, CDC recommends antigens test instead.

Tested negative repeatedly in-between. Looks like a genuine re-infection (presumably Delta then Omicron)

[Slick]

Cases really tumbled in the last week in Scotland. Less than 3,000 positive PCR tests reported today, compared to 17,000 a fortnight ago.

That's very good. Although, I think a lot of people are not bothering with PCR tests/ Can't get one etc. Not nearly enough to discount those figures mind.

[Biffer]

Cases really tumbled in the last week in Scotland. Less than 3,000 positive PCR tests reported today, compared to 17,000 a fortnight ago.

That's very good. Although, I think a lot of people are not bothering with PCR tests/ Can't get one etc. Not nearly enough to discount those figures mind.

They're much easier to get than they were a fortnight ago tbh. Think it's back to them being available in the next hour in Edinburgh. Scottish government now also reporting on lateral flow tests, which they hadn't been doing previously. Hospital bed occupation seems to have levelled off and ICU numbers have fallen back (qlthough they didn't go up that much)

[petej]

Cases really tumbled in the last week in Scotland. Less than 3,000 positive PCR tests reported today, compared to 17,000 a fortnight ago.

That's very good. Although, I think a lot of people are not bothering with PCR tests/ Can't get one etc. Not nearly enough to discount those figures mind.

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.

Screenshot_20220117-164216.png (299.19 KiB) Viewed 1012 times

[shaggy]

Cases really tumbled in the last week in Scotland. Less than 3,000 positive PCR tests reported today, compared to 17,000 a fortnight ago.

That's very good. Although, I think a lot of people are not bothering with PCR tests/ Can't get one etc. Not nearly enough to discount those figures mind.

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Fuck off. You can have Cornwall as they are weird buggers but Devon stays in England!

[dpedin]

Cases really tumbled in the last week in Scotland. Less than 3,000 positive PCR tests reported today, compared to 17,000 a fortnight ago.

That's very good. Although, I think a lot of people are not bothering with PCR tests/ Can't get one etc. Not nearly enough to discount those figures mind.

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Scotland reported on 16,208 new tests yesterday of which 21.3% were positive the highest rate since last Tuesday. Yesterday 27,243 tests were reported so a drop in test reported by 45%. 7 day average for positive reports was 19.4%. You have to go back over a year to find as low a number of tests reported. To me, unless this is a reporting hiccup which is a distinct possibility, it looks like there is a significant drop off in tests, and therefore cases, being reported which can't be explained completely by a drop in actual covid cases. I suspect most folk are not bothering to report on LFTs or even getting tested now? The impact of this is that number of cases is now a different measure - we are not comparing like with like now so any trend info is not worth looking at. Hospitalisations and deaths remain the key indicators.

[SaintK]

That's very good. Although, I think a lot of people are not bothering with PCR tests/ Can't get one etc. Not nearly enough to discount those figures mind.

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Fuck off. You can have Cornwall as they are weird buggers but Devon stays in England!

Aren't most of them second home owners from Notting Hill and Islington?

[shaggy]

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Fuck off. You can have Cornwall as they are weird buggers but Devon stays in England!

Aren't most of them second home owners from Notting Hill and Islington?

Devon is not much different, locals are priced out by Home Counties dwellers dropping 7 figure sums on properties. No, the Cornish are proper weird.

[fishfoodie]

But when the positivity is also heading downwards you definitely can't discount them. I do find the map funny today. Perhaps Devon and Cornwall should join Wales.
Screenshot_20220117-164216.png

Fuck off. You can have Cornwall as they are weird buggers but Devon stays in England!

Aren't most of them second home owners from Notting Hill and Islington?

and Rick Stein owns the rest...

[CM11]

Going to be very odd being able to have a normal conversation about covid on here!

Anyway, read this initially as a young child and was wondering about repeated tests but am I right to assume the reason for that was that she works in healthcare or some area with high exposure?

Christ, just chatting to a mate and he tells me his youngest daughter caught Covid 6 weeks ago and has tested positive again today...

If it was a PCR test , it can remain positive for up to 12 weeks after infection, CDC recommends antigens test instead.

Tested negative repeatedly in-between. Looks like a genuine re-infection (presumably Delta then Omicron)

[Ymx]

Makes sense.

6 weeks ago was 6th Dec.



So I guess 6 weeks ago it was 95% likely delta, and now it’s probably 99.9% likely omicron.